I honestly cannot recommend that anyone develop, or follow up an interest in trading.

oildaytrader said:
No.That is the truth.

I am implementing mercenary trading on a live 6 figure account, soon the whole method will be fully trading on live .Believe me it works , and for your info I have spent 10 years looking for this holy grail.
Click to expand...

You've spent 10 years looking, and now you're finally going to start trading?

6 figures of JPY, more like.
 
TRADEFUTURES said:
Okay....

Mindsets need to change pronto.

Treat any given trade as a 'discrete' event.

What I mean by this is that it is wrong to co-relate markets from a trading execution standpoint, even though correlations do exist, By using correlations to make a judgement on any given markets, this only dilutes one's conviction to take a position and then fiddle with stops a position size.

Clarity : when I say that traders should try to set themselves up to capture larger moves over weeks and months...means that some trades can run for 9 months...in fact my record for longest running trade to date has been nearly a year....why close a good trade?...if you need the money then you don't have to close out the trade...just move stops up locking in partial gains.

This doesn't mean that all trades work out like that where they run for a year....It just means that you should be prepared for draw...and be prepared to hold discrete trades until they knock you out with locked in gains.

Under capitalisation is another problem. It is better to stop trading if you are under capitalised, that is until you have the correct level of funding....otherwise you'll only end up over dosing...this is a vicious cycle / trap once an undercapitalised trader gets slammed.

Holy Grail of trading???...there is no such thing...dodge these kinds of people like the plague....sooner or later they will as you for money...the best instance i've heard of lately is someone asking for donations.....now these kind of frauds are trying to appeal to the charitable side of human nature...disgusting!!!
Click to expand...

I think we trade a similar way, although my timeframe perhaps a little shorter. My longest trade to date has been in gold, which lasted 3 months.

You should be quite clear that your approach requires a decent amount of capital (you did mention it, to be fair). Also, swings in equity can be fairly vicious, so it might not be for everyone.
 
TRADEFUTURES said:
This game is not difficult at all. No disrepect intended to those that are struggling.

The key is to do less work. Sitting infront of a screen 14 hours a day does not make good trading. Risking more than 1.5%-2% on any trading idea is just plain silly. Exposing more than 8-10% of your trading account in a period of 4 weeks is silly.

Intra day / short term trading should be considered a hobby...not an occupation, unless you're flipping 8 to 9 figure transactions, which is highly unlikely if you're a retail player.

There is good volatility and bad volatility. Avoid bad volatility...and yes thats intra day volatilty that must be avoided otherwise you will lose again and again even though your view of the market will probably be spot on.

Harness and exploit good volatility, and yes i'm referring to setting yourself up to capture larger moves in a multitude of markets over periods of weeks and months.

Setting yourself up for good volatiilty means that you must make drastic changes...1st change is to STOP intra day trading.

2nd. Cut your stakes right down.
3rd. Utilise much larger stops while ensuring that no more than 1-2% of your trading account is at risk for any given trade.
4th. Expect to be holding positions for potentially months...yes this is boring...but successful trading is boring...if you want thrills go to the casino or start to day trade with leverage (tight stops / high stakes).
5th. Do your research and analysis when the markets are closed.
6th. Make your descisions & Order your trades on the weekend - its really OK to ONLY order 1 trade a week.
7th. Let your losing trades stop out at the predefined risk tollerances.
8th. Let your winning trades run...yes expect them to run for potentially months.
9th. NEVER manually close a winning trade. If the trade is in profit, move stops up to eliminate risk. Move stops up to lock in profit...but there is no rush to do this as you will be relaxed knowing that you only have 1-2% at risk. This 1-2% risk can potentially return 5-25%..maybe more.

TAKE SOME TIME TO BUILD A SMALL PORTFOLIO TO WORK ON. - Research / analysis should not take more than 2-3 hours on the weekend.

AIM TO BUILD A PORTFOLIO OF 'OPEN' PROFITABLE POSITIONS...LET LOSING TRADES STOP OUT.

DON'T WASTE YOUR TIME WATCHING THE MARKETS DURING THE WEEK.

DON'T EVEN WASTE YOUR TIME TRYING TO TRADE THE MARKETS IF YOU HAVE LESS THAN £15K-£20K OF CASH FUNDS THAT YOU CAN AFFORD TO FORGET ABOUT FOR ATLEAST 6-12 MONTHS.

DON'T EVEN THINK ABOUT TRADING AS A MEANS TO PAY FOR ROUTINE EXPENDITURE SUCH AS LIVING EXPENSES FOR ATLEAST THE FIRST 12 MONTHS.

90-95% of intra day / short term traders lose...This is a realistic statistic

The 5-10% that succeed and that will continue to succeed...well you know how they trade now!...expect 150-300% annual returns...day traders / short term traders try to make 150-300% returns quarterly...thats why they blow up time and time again....

peace!!!
Click to expand...

You do not need to sit in front of a screen 14 hours a day to intra-day trade. Intra-day trading is no more a hobby than any other style of trading. I would agree perhaps that you are more likely to blow up this way than any other - andI would agree that by the nature of intra-day trading, you will blow up faster.

Some people call intra-day trading gambling. My personal opinion is that the whole of Wall St is a Casino and a minus sum game. My opinion is that intra-day trading is a game of sorts. It is clear that a lot of traders don't think this and it is they who get played in the game.

The crux of it is that fundamentals move the market long term, in the very short term it is buying/selling pressure that moves the market and this can be gamed quite easily. It can't be played for days but for the next 15-20 minutes people can move the market, this may be enough to cause a real change in direction or it may be short lived. People cannot move the market without leaving a bit of a footprint - i.e. their trades.

I was short the ES at 9:47 at 1076.25 and am still short some of that position now. The reason for my entry was an expectation that the market would reverse after piercing Fridays high and the evidence eventually pointed to that being the case, at which point I got in. I did not/do not know how far this will go, we have been to 1070.25 so far and it's over 1 hour later. We are pretty close to a Fib number and a place where people may be convinced to do something they will regret.

This will be my only trade on the ES today. I wasn't watching it before it hit my marker and I won't be watching it once I'm out.

These 'skill's are not transferrable to trading over days in my opinion. It's just a different skillset is all. I did not learn this on purpose, it was not my intention to do this. It is simply where I ended up.

I can see how people who trade on different timeframes feel that it's madness but it really isn't as intense as people make out.
 
meanreversion said:
I think we trade a similar way, although my timeframe perhaps a little shorter. My longest trade to date has been in gold, which lasted 3 months.

You should be quite clear that your approach requires a decent amount of capital (you did mention it, to be fair). Also, swings in equity can be fairly vicious, so it might not be for everyone.
Click to expand...

3 months is about right.

In respect to account sizing, anything less than £20k is asking for trouble / sleepless nights.

Equity swings only become an issue when too many trades are sanctioned at the same time. Thats why I say, that it is OK to order 1 trade a week, and focus on building on and building up a portfolio of profitable positions step by step, one position at a time, rather than loading 5 positions simultaneously, that is unless you are at mid cycle of your P&L with a running and locked in profit.
 
One more point before I get called a charlaton....

Most of my money is in long-term holdings which I don't even look at on a daily basis.

As I become more proficient, I will move money from there to my short term account but right now I'm happy with the balance.
 
meanreversion said:
Wirral, you're back.. I thought you left t2w in disgust..?

Wirral glad to see you again :)
Click to expand...

Yes I was on trying to start my own Trading Journal here, which is basically just a copy of my Twitter trading journal/blog there pasted in here, but they don't seem to want me to do this as they deleted it straight away. Ah well..
 
wirraltraders said:
Yes I was on trying to start my own Trading Journal here, which is basically just a copy of my Twitter trading journal/blog there pasted in here, but they don't seem to want me to do this as they deleted it straight away. Ah well..
Click to expand...

Just looked like a hook to your twitter page and thence to your services, wirral - and that's a bit of artful advertising.

jon
 
barjon said:
Just looked like a hook to your twitter page and thence to your services, wirral - and that's a bit of artful advertising.

jon
Click to expand...

Oh ok, but for the record these are my own live trades and my own journal/blog, regardless of what else I do. At the time I posted, I was also still in a live trade, since closed, so you can't get more personal/live than that..
 
Oil, anything is possible, but it is all hype unless proven over the long run on a live account. I had 15% gains on my total account on my EUR/GBP--short today. Compunded, that is 2,164% over one month. (Do the math on compounded interest over 22 trading days.). I just proved its possible. But please, let's me real. That is overnight.
Another thing, if I was doing that conssitently, I probably wouldn't be on here talking about it. Also, if you were doing that consistently then you would be breaking the vault of your broker.
BTW, after the trade hits my target at .8283, the trade will be up 24%, but I still didn't prove anything. I'm just trying to objectively make a point.


oildaytrader said:
The only way you know how to make 1,000 % with drawdown < 10 % , is if I give all the details of method on a free message board.It would prove to you guys it can be done , only if I let it all out.

I respect your intelligence and don't expect you to ask for the details , because nobody with that grail is going to let it all out.

It can be done and I am doing it.Be as abusive and rude as you like.
Click to expand...
 
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