The Indians, Africans, Chinese, Brazilians, Russians, South East Asians will use a lot more commodities the next 20 years. That is my trend.I can see this is going to take a long time..
start with a weekly chart, define the trend on that time frame.
Develop a system with an edge, back test it and then trade from that time frame.
Decide whether you will be in that system for the entire length of that trend, or whether you want to take little pieces from the trend.
If you want long term, you don't want to be fading that trend, you want to stay with it always
decide how you will enter, exit, decide how you will add to your existing position, determine your position size etc etc
But the starting point for me is the trend. how will you define a trend?
what criteria will tell you whether a new one is beginning or ending, or will you wait for a trend to develop before getting on board..how will you know whether that trend has developed.
You will learn alot just from this alone
you need to ask your broker, typically their might be a spread differenceThe Indians, Africans, Chinese, Brazilians, Russians, South East Asians will use a lot more commodities the next 20 years. That is my trend.
I am looking at these etfs for sugar
- Dow Jones-UBS Sugar Subindex Total Return ETN (SGG)
- Pure Beta Sugar ETN (SGAR)
- Teucrium Sugar Fund (CANE)
I know with an etn you have the risk that you lose your money if the party goes bust.
But do i pay fees on these etn for rolling over future contracts for these etns?
I do. If we all start using commodities like the Americans we need 4,5 times this earth. What happens when 500 million Chinese get to the middle class and the same for people from India?you need to ask your broker, typically their might be a spread difference
as for all these countries using commodities, they have always used these commodities, and always will. do you see a steadily rising trend for these commodities? No you don't..you also wont in the future. Back to that trend...
I do. If we all start using commodities like the Americans we need 4,5 times this earth. What happens when 500 million Chinese get to the middle class and the same for people from India?
Im bad at timing but i know the long term trends of middle class growth and the fact that nobody wants to be a farmer and when sugar goes down i buy more. And looking at a week chart won't change anything on the long term trends.I don't doubt that demand will rise, but would you have bought sugar in dec 2009? Demand is still going to be there isn't it, but 6 months later it was worth 34% less, why is that..did people not realise that chinese were going to be middle class?
when would you have sold sugar, after it had fallen 34%? sooner?
when would you have bought again..or would you still be hanging onto it now?
it reached $28/pound, would you have sold then? why, or why not?
its about timing, commodity prices do not go up in straight lines, and its no different from dec 2009, to dec 2029.
But good luck to you Paulie..you wait for that middle class population to grow up.
but by then, and we realise that we cant produce enough sugar to feed all these middle class families what sugar substitute will there be? what effect will that have on your etf now?..its about timing, thats all Im saying. Its all about, and will always be about timing.
And looking at a week chart won't change anything on the long term trends.
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