How to make 250 quid before lunch

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knucklehead

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A master lesson in daytrading.....

Wake up sleepy head.....check that charts.....FTSE SUCKS.....DAX SMOOTH MAN....

Let's trade the DAX, wait for SETUP (confidential) entry around 4297- 4295 @10pp. You could use a close EMA to track it's progress.

Once it starts going sideways around 10.30pm at 4270-4265 TAKE PROFITS...250 QUID !!!

DANKA.

See charts... notice smooth price action before 10 on dax and jagged on ftse.
 

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ok, this is an attempt to be more constructive..

im not criticising your methods or style, just trying to highlight the fact that post-event calls are largely pointless.

viz my attached chart of the Dow. look how i could have picked up about 4,000 points on the daily chart by shorting on the first divergance, and then covering on the 2nd major Positive divergance..

of course i didnt trade this, but thats not the point.




FC
 

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FetteredChinos said:
ok, this is an attempt to be more constructive..

im not criticising your methods or style, just trying to highlight the fact that post-event calls are largely pointless.

viz my attached chart of the Dow. look how i could have picked up about 4,000 points on the daily chart by shorting on the first divergance, and then covering on the 2nd major Positive divergance..

of course i didnt trade this, but thats not the point.




FC
Click to expand...

Well maybe you should have traded it, if you never trade you'll never make money!

Actually their is more to it, I use the same method each and everyday...like a MACHINE!

I use the tightest stop I can get! I get stopped out about 1-3 times a month...FALSE SIGNALS!

The rest are winners, if it doesnt GUT FEEL right I use 1pp or 2pp. Limited risk but I still trade my plan and plan my trade!

The dax may fall lower this afternoon, but GREED is the way to RUIN !
 
thanks for the most enlightening post.

so you use the tightest stops possible. ie 1 tick? and you only get stopped out 1-3 times a month?


i may have to have a look at your crystal ball. my local gypsy had hers stolen a few weeks ago.

does yours double as a snowstorm?

fc
 
knucklehead said:
Well maybe you should have traded it, if you never trade you'll never make money!

Actually their is more to it, I use the same method each and everyday...like a MACHINE!

I use the tightest stop I can get! I get stopped out about 1-3 times a month...FALSE SIGNALS!

The rest are winners, if it doesnt GUT FEEL right I use 1pp or 2pp. Limited risk but I still trade my plan and plan my trade!

The dax may fall lower this afternoon, but GREED is the way to RUIN !
Click to expand...

machine's get it wrong all the time. I work at one of the largest hedge funds in europe and we have a desk dedicated to automated trading based of signals and formations. If you use the same method day in day out you're gonna get screwed sooner or later. That's one of the reasons why I don't place much emphasis on backtesting. Coming from a risk background I favour monte carlo sims for VaR to historical cos the past isn't representative of the future. Similar with trading strategies, whilst you can rely on herd mentality to work in your favour much of the time, freak events happen frequently enough for you to make big losses unless you take into account every possible market risk factor there is .. which is of course impossible. And as for usign the tightest stop you can get (I've seen 2 on IG before which was ridiculous but helpful for the trades that I do) are you saying you call each trade so perfectly that the market almost always goes your way once you've entered? I seriously doubt that
 
GotGold said:
Another dreamer is 'outed'.
Those trips to Florida will be 1st class then...
Click to expand...

no cheapest ticket I can get... the rich dont spend money...only the poor and middle class spend ALL their money.
 
So knucklehead why aren't you trading 100 contracts and making 25,000 per day?

Don't give any bull about not having enough wedge as if you do this 17 times out of 20 a month you should be trading multiple contracts very rapidly.

JonnyT
 
FetteredChinos said:
thanks for the most enlightening post.

so you use the tightest stops possible. ie 1 tick? and you only get stopped out 1-3 times a month?


i may have to have a look at your crystal ball. my local gypsy had hers stolen a few weeks ago.

does yours double as a snowstorm?

fc
Click to expand...


Sorry if I gave the wrong impression on that stop! Try 12 point stop.

Risk/Reward ratio is 12/25 = 1:2 not the best risk/reward ratio I know.
 
ok , thanks knuckle. now we are getting somewhere.

now are you trading futures or spreadbet prices?

FC
 
sccz97 said:
machine's get it wrong all the time. I work at one of the largest hedge funds in europe and we have a desk dedicated to automated trading based of signals and formations.
Click to expand...

Well if a machine gets it's wrong all the time, tell it to do the exact opposite, a traders greatest asset is the ability to change.

Freak events are not random....they tend to come in three's, hence the sayings.

Bill Dunn has used the same method of trading (trend following) over 25 years, so has John Henry, but I know what you mean about methods not working consistently.

Thanks for your incite into Hedge funds.
 
knucklehead said:
Well if a machine gets it's wrong all the time, tell it to do the exact opposite, a traders greatest asset is the ability to change.

Freak events are not random....they tend to come in three's, hence the sayings.

Bill Dunn has used the same method of trading (trend following) over 25 years, so has John Henry, but I know what you mean about methods not working consistently.

Thanks for your incite into Hedge funds.
Click to expand...

our automated systems are more profitable than not, the challenge is the reduce the stddev and keep the mean as positive as possible. i trade fx personally so when I mention freak events I'm talking about post bullish-US figure releases where some hedge fund dumps a few hundred million dollars and moves the market the other way, or hijack/terrorist/bomb appears on a reuters/bb feed and ppl start dumping. These happen more than you'd expect, some may shift the market for a few minutes, others for long enough to ruin your trading strategy. But looking at first hour of trading and basing your trading decisions for the day off solely off that is indeed a risky way to trade
 
Well I suppose Knucklehead has been put firmly in his place, not very encouraging for others

to venture forth. I think the proof is in the pudding is he making money or no, maybe what he

is doing is very simple/basic but I was always told to "KISS".
 
After reading a further thread by Knucklehead please disregard my earlier post.
 
sccz97 said:
our automated systems are more profitable than not, the challenge is the reduce the stddev and keep the mean as positive as possible. i trade fx personally so when I mention freak events I'm talking about post bullish-US figure releases where some hedge fund dumps a few hundred million dollars and moves the market the other way, or hijack/terrorist/bomb appears on a reuters/bb feed and ppl start dumping. These happen more than you'd expect, some may shift the market for a few minutes, others for long enough to ruin your trading strategy. But looking at first hour of trading and basing your trading decisions for the day off solely off that is indeed a risky way to trade
Click to expand...

thanks for that glad to hear your auto systems are profitable, I see what you mean. I was thinking about how things are interconnected, such as that vioxx drug and similar drugs, they all got hammered. One event lead to several stocks and a sector tumbling. One seemingly random event causes other related events to happen that would not have happened otherwise. Sort of pseudo chaos.

I use the first hour of trading as a barometer to keep me out of the market on sideways moving days. I find it very effective, but I have look at the markets everday for the last four years. I use other criterias for entry, but I find many methods will do.
 
knucklehead said:
I use the first hour of trading as a barometer to keep me out of the market on sideways moving days.
Click to expand...
Sorry mate. I must have missed this.

How do you use the first hour of trading as a barometer for sideways/trending market?
 
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