How to evaluate the probability of success of a trading oppornuity
Magos
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make 10 trades .... count winners and losers or if you are crazy like me do 100
success in trading has to do with money…. If you just do 1 trade and win 1million and do nothing for the rest of your life you are 100% successful for me .. maybe one of my heroes :cheesy:
new_trader
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Experience.
bbmac
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The main criteria to determine the probability of success of trading opportunity is as suggested above historical....The historical strike rate of the type of set-up in the type of market circumstances .
eg: I look for confluence of 4 factors line up so that it delivers a high strike rate (winning trades as a % of total) so that I know that anything less than the confluence of the relevant 4 technical factors in a set-up, will, over any extended sample give a lower probability of success, and likely result theregore in a lower number of successful outcomes.
It is important/useful therefore to know the historical strike rate of your set-ups in relevant market conditions, and this will enable you to utilise the highest probability set-ups and market conditions in which to trade them.