how to avoid missed signals

[danfreek]

I cannot believe that I made such a rookie mistake yesterday. I'm swing trading the Dow, S&P 500, FTSE 100, DAX and Nasdaq 100. It's not a huge watch list but in my hurry to put an order in to buy the S&P I missed the signal on the DOW , it would have been a huge trade for me, and I'm only regretting it because the signal was valid this time, but still, it's a mistake I can't afford to repeat.

The point of this thread is to ask people how they avoid these situations, do you have a set time each day to review your charts, do you use screeners with your criteria set up etc? Also does anyone else have any similar stories to share so that I don't feel quite so stupid!!

 

[jsd]

I assume your signal been Invalid before? and how does that make you feel? nervous, fearful, relieved,lucky, clever, not stupid, ?

I dont know what timeframe you are working with so you would need to give us further details. Try not to feel stupid or beat yourself up on a continual basis. Know that you are not a stupid person for missing the Opportunity ,just un prepared as we all can and have been maybe ,opportunities abound in the market, you perhaps just need to fine tune and exploit/master 1 crowd of people before attempting to exploit the mindset and transactions of several crowds and you would perhaps be most likely to succeed when you have exploited your own mental capacity.

Why do you feel you need to trade several markets? more opportunity for an increase in profit ? are there any other ways you can increase your profit other than trading multiple markets?

how much time do you need to assess whats happening in order to feel that you have reached a conclusion to act? seconds, minutes, hours, days and what are you thinking during your assessment process ? and how are you feeling with those thoughts ?

jd

 

[danfreek]

Cheers jsd,

I'm not beating myself up too much, it's just really annoying when a good trade is missed.

The reason I trade several markets is because I trade EOD and the signals occur maybe twice a month in each index, so in order to make enough trades to keep me happy I have to follow several markets, I am virtually trading a system, although there is a certain amount of discretion, it takes me about a minute or so to see if there's a signal on each market, so I have enough time, what I am probably lacking most is the discipline to remember to check every day without fail.

Like any other signal, the one I use doesn't work 100% of the time, the draw down is small though, so I don't worry about losing trades, it would be a lot easier to accept a missed trade though if it happened to be a loser. I am profitable and missing this trade shouldn't matter too much long term, I'm just trying to come up with a fool proof way to stop the same thing from happening again.

 

[jsd]

ok well I sense you have available all the time required to assess the opportunity and what appears to be the glitch of "Fearing a Loss" which is preventing you from placing the trade. Its possible this fear could be due to your system of entry , money exposure, lack of belief in yourself based on limited experience, other peoples influence on you. I think maybe the foolproof way is to "Not Fool Yourself" . If you want to have the greatest chance of success be very honest with and to yourself, manage your time so you have it available to make the decision to act. (either entering or choosing to stand aside, its all fluid action) . Ask yourself why you sometimes enter and do not enter.... is it just a simple time management situation . Very probably not.

You recognise you need to improve on your discipline so you are seeing the answers to your own questions but it seems you have a slight conflict, you dont worry about losing a small loss yet you feel and believe that its easier for YOU to accept a missed losing trade, but then some ? trades will tank and you will be left possibly suffering with your indecision. It is also said that those trades which are most difficult to take are the ones to make, Which leads to......

Ultimately you have to be prepared to lose in order to gain, without detail of your attitude and perception and beliefs concerning exposure to risk (financial and personal) its not possible to assess whats causing the fear of losing. maybe read more about the psychological aspects of how people typically respond with their programmed beliefs in the market and what most traders do the reverse of to exploit them.

Your failure to give up will ensure your success. Its all good experience though, best wishes with it.

jd.

 

[charliechan]

dont worry about it.

you cant expect to be in on every move can you? also, we're not perfect.

beating yourself up or getting angry over this only reinforces your self image of being error prone or worse. this will in turn make you even more error prone as this is how you see yourself.

anyway, why bother looking at both s&p and dow? the two are too closely correlated to be of much benefit unless trading the spreads - which i doubt you are. focus on one of these only for now. it will mean less confusion and distraction.

 

[danfreek]

Charlie,

that's very true, the S&P and the dow are very closely correlated, I might drop one of them until I have a bit more time to spare and can concentrate on my trading, as I will do in just over a months time.

[edit] also, once again, I'm not beating myself up. I was just wondering if there were any ways to stop it happening in the future. I don't mind missing a big move if I haven't got an entry signal for it, but this trade was a perfect setup and I missed it simply because I forgot to look, doh. that trade is over now, I'm just looking to guard against it in the future.

 

[ZDO]

danfreek,

Have you considered TS? TS Radar Screen?

This is a practical solution that WORKS!
Also, just because they are highly correlated doesn't mean that a signal is always generated for both or all of them for YOUR system. With RadarScreen (or a simple TS system), you wouldn't have to drop markets off your watch lists. Just go look 15 - 30 minutes before the close (or whenever your trigger time is) and you don't 'miss' those great trades ...

...unless you still have other issues, in which case, you'll somehow find ways to 'miss' them anyway.
ie This reply should not be construed to discount ANY of the 'inner' elements of your work or the generous and helpful comments from others here. They are more important than any bells and whistles!

All the best,

zd

 

[danfreek]

Cheers guys,

JSD, I think I have my inner game sorted, the reason I missed the signal was that I didn't look at the chart, if I had looked I would have seen it. It was virtually identical to the signal I did take in the S&P (surprise surprise). As I said, I am profitable, and have learned to take losses, however, I think it's definately a good point to make that the inner game must be sorted first, that cannot be understated.

I think I'll try the diary Joules. I did have a journal on here, but I found it too time consuming to write. I'm not sure why as I drivel on for hours on my own website. But If I keep a physical diary, then that might work (I already write down every trade I make).

ZDO, I'll take a look at TS, I have been using prorealtime and don't particularly want to leave them, but I'll definately look at TS and see what I think.

 

[jsd]

Ok danfreek, but I will spell out what i would tell a friend based on what you have said .

It takes you a minute or so to assess an End Of Day trading setup which happens a couple of times a month per asset yet this can result in you still rushing and missing signals. Thats not good enough is it? look at yourself rushing around when it last happend , how do you view yourself and how and who do you want to be when the next opportunity arises ?

Try to be professional with it regarding the time commitment for you to assess, no need to rush then is there ? If you have family around. put them on hold, but explain to them what and why you need to managed the time for this.... unless of course you want trading to be slapdash hobby status for you which is also fine... it all depends who you want to be and how you relate yourself and your future with trading.

And perhaps be aware very subtle mishaps like forgetting to look at a chart sometimes can be very deliberate.

best wishes

jd. h.o.

 

[danfreek]

Thanks jsd. You're right, I need to start looking at my whole approach. My methadology is pretty professional, but if I'm honest, you wouldn't really know that if you stood there watching me! Fortunately there is no family yet, I'm only 21 and living on my own right now, but I do need to sort out my time and become a bit more professional about the way I approach my trading.