How do you trade futures (to be specific, fixed income)?

[highisland]

I've been looking at Bunds on a 15min chart, and paper trading using a 4 tick stop loss.
I set a target of 10 ticks (no particular reason) unless a trendline or pattern indicates sooner. But the target is not always reached, and I've toyed with the idea of a trailing 4 tick stop loss, so if the price rebounds by 4 ticks from the new high/low, I'll stop out and take some profit.

Most of the time, I can enter a trade successfully, but I'm not comfortable with taking profits. Should I just continue to run my profit beyond 10 ticks... should I cut half my position with 5 ticks profit...

Ultimately, if I can make 10 ticks a day on 10 lots, I'd be happy. If I achieved that during the day, I think I would stop for the remainder of the day.

Anyway, I was wondering how others traded, or what you think of my ideas.

Any advice/feedback would be very welcome.

 

[charliechan]

fine. if it works it works!! at least its simple.

look back at your results and do what works best. go for optimum profits over maximum profits though, as you may well end up with a curve fitted system that doesnt do too well in real life.

id start with 1 or 2 lots first and build up once you are consistently profitable.

 

[Verno]

High island. There will be many pieces of advice, but a good one is to take off half your stake when a decent target is reached. Lets say you sell 5 lots at a 6 tick profit and then run the other 5 lots. (this works on any volume ie 2 lots 4 lots etc).

I would also advocate running a trailing stop as it prevents unnecessary losses. The bund is a volatile contract and can easily do 5 tick swings very quickly.

Another tip is if you are trading 10 lots and make 10 ticks, I wouldn't give up but reduce your size. Maybe even down to 2. Often if you are trading well one day then its because you are in tune with whats happening in the market. Its these days that you need to keep trading to make more. Reducing your size though will mean you don't lose much i fyou lose. Also set a min drawdown. ie if you have banked 100 ticks then if it goes down to 80 on 2 lots then stop for the day.

 

[highisland]

Thanks charliechan and Verno for your replies.

charliechan, could you explain your coment about going for optimum profits to avoid ending up with a curve fitting system?

Verno, thanks for making the suggestion to use smaller sizes to trade once I'd achieved my target for the day. I hadn't thought of that. and also the drawdown tip.

For those of you who trade bunds, how do you do it. My set up for paper trading is a 15min bar chart with a brief look at the daily/weekly chart. Look for double tops/bottoms and simple trendline SRs while also looking at Fibs for target levels.

What stop limit do you use whether it's fixed or trailing? I've found that at least until now when I've used fixed stops, that 4 ticks is sufficient.

If I was to start out with EUR20k capital and trade 10 lots, then my stop loss would be EUR400 which is risking 2% of my capital. Is that reasonable.

Many thanks again.

 

[charliechan]

well if you look at your results you may go for the method that made the most money. this is natural. however, the money may have came from a few unique trades. will these events happen again do you think? unlikely and unpredictable.

better go for what gives you consistently good profits across all conditions.

eg you have 2 choices: let the second clip run and trail and you may get 100 ticks once a month. however, the alternative for the second clip is that you may be able to bank say 20 ticks five times a month. go for the second choice. although 100 ticks makes you feel real good, the frequency is uncommon and may not happen at all some months, or you may be away when it does. going for the 20 tick wins will happen more frequently, and adds up to the same at the end of the day.

vernos advise is also good.

 

[highisland]

Ah. I see what you mean. thanks for the clarification charliechan.

Do you trade with some sort of a target in mind?

 

[supraman iii]

dont trade the bund whatever you do...it is the devil in disguise and a pretty weak disguise at that

i think you have to do whatever suits you...i know people who grab a couple of ticks on size just scalping and i know others who take a view and run it almost all morning or afternoon. so many different options to you just experiment and find your own technique

the main things i agree with is running a trailing stop on your trades as well as your p&l on the day. the other thing is do not stop at 100ticks...i dont agree with target setting...if you are reading it well then the possibilities are endless...some of my best days have come when i have still been sat at my desk at 7 or 8 just cos i cant put a foot wrong...sometimes you are in the zone sometimes your not...its knowing when you are and exploiting the fact and when youre not getting out unscathed

 

[TWI]

I knw one guy who said he made money by getting in and putting on a trade and then all morning he did 10tick stop reverse and 20tick profit. do not remember what he did after the 20tick profit but guess a few options.

 

[minx]

dont trade the bund whatever you do...it is the devil in disguise and a pretty weak disguise at that

i think you have to do whatever suits you...i know people who grab a couple of ticks on size just scalping and i know others who take a view and run it almost all morning or afternoon. so many different options to you just experiment and find your own technique

Haha, Bund can indeed be a devil in disguise!! I system trade it and love the size in there, makes it easy to scale up. I probably hold trades anything from 1-2 hours up to 2-3 weeks, depends on the trend........

That method you mentioned twalker, was it actually an oil trader? Heard a very similar story.

 

[Dare]

High Island

I think your view isnt really good infact i think its pretty un original with lack of imagination, to be honest how many punters are running the same system as you, sure we would all love to take 10 ticks a day profit but honestly when your sitting at your desk and you know that you need that money to live for bread and butter then the first sight of a couple of ticks will be like gold dust after a couple of months trading outrights,yourll never survive unless you get a edge on the market theres to much intraday short short high frequency trading techinques out there to make u fall out of the trade and crap yorself, your proabaly best to trading spreads and intergrate you idea in with that...

I used to be a big bund trader over at refco with a miniumum size of 3k lots so forgive me if i dont give you my name, i dont trade anymore ,what i found quiet a good way off trading was to take a short term view max out your account and ride the wave from negetive to positive, just build up an account as fast as possible, trade aggressive and be as bold as you can, aggresion is the key not candel sticks not bar charts not double doji high five slapper roony candel paterns or systematic trading systems for 9.99 from ebay just good old balls..

I dont need to work anymore im set for liffe buit id be lieing if i didnt tell you i blew my account out 4 times, and rememeber never give up and never lose yourself

 

[supraman iii]

i take it you were at the refco that isnt refco anymore...its marex cos i trade the bund here now

i dont trade 3k lots and not too sure how you can have 3k as a min clip in the bund...wouldnt be tough enough in the schatz let alone the bund...were you a spreader? did you come from the floor?

anyway i agree with the theory that you have to be aggressive but i think the key is being savvy...its knowing when to protect yourself (rather than blowing out 4 times...we've all done it) when the markets arent with you but when you have an opportunity in your favour you milk the son of a btch dry

 

[charliechan]

....... but when you have an opportunity in your favour you milk the son of a btch dry

luv it!

 

[Dare]

i take it you were at the refco that isnt refco anymore...its marex cos i trade the bund here now

i dont trade 3k lots and not too sure how you can have 3k as a min clip in the bund...wouldnt be tough enough in the schatz let alone the bund...were you a spreader? did you come from the floor?

anyway i agree with the theory that you have to be aggressive but i think the key is being savvy...its knowing when to protect yourself (rather than blowing out 4 times...we've all done it) when the markets aren't with you but when you have an opportunity in your favour you milk the son of a btch dry

Well superman I never worked on the floor because i was to young, i left refco when it was mac futures when the good old boy james macloed owned it, i joined the graduate scheme and never looked back really, i dont get what you say about 3k not being enough in the shatz let alone enough in the bund ? and i dont understand how you can say that 3k wasn't my starting clip size ,id throw around 6k easy like it was no ones business. i used have amazing days and big down days but i lived for the buzz and nothing else, its all b*******ks what people say about money management and risk reward i just traded what i felt , the spreads are over volumized and expensive to trade.

to many pussys like yourself who havent got the balls to be the next brave heart or rotter, to attached to the money, you need to play the game, do yourself a favour today before the GDP Figure, if the figure comes out negative sell it hard this war business in Israel will attract to many punters like bush if he gets inviolved theres going to be ww3 so look for opps between us deficit and war relate b******ks

Problems started developing when you spreaders from alll over the joint started nicking ticks.

what spreads you trade bund bobl?

and another thing do yo honestly think 3k min isnt enough size to trade out right in the bund, im under the impression your a man of size then ?

 

[supraman iii]

and another thing do yo honestly think 3k min isnt enough size to trade out right in the bund, im under the impression your a man of size then ?

no i am a man who cant type...i meant to say i think it would be hard to clip 3k in the schatz let alone in the bund...my mistake...3k is plenty considering the bund is as i type 1178 by 1373

i dont get involved in spreads...no fun in it...the thrill is all about outrights (mainly bund) and as lumpy and scary as you can stomach...i havent been trading very long but i am the next braveheart...the flipper's work is too labour intensive, managing all those bund, bobl, schatz orders all day is not my style (dont get me wrong i would take his P&L)...i am a wham bam trader...hit the fundamentals mainly...GDP is gonna be a free for all...think i am gonna venture into the Tnote for it but who knows

 

[charliechan]

have many of you guys traded the t-bonds?

whats the bund got that the bonds havent - apart from having to get out of bed early????

 

[supraman iii]

have many of you guys traded the t-bonds?

whats the bund got that the bonds havent - apart from having to get out of bed early????

they are different but i guess its just what you get used to...as a local i have to get up early and then leave work at about 4ish and i prefer those hours especially in the summer

i also find the amount of absolute crap in the tnote, tbond, etc is just impossible to read so much rubbish orders...i know in the bund you have to deal with the flipper but i prefer the order flow to US mkts even when he is in

 

[newsoros]

Iv just recently got into trading bunds outright and wanted to know what targets/stops people set

I try and keep tight stops of 3-5 ticks, but it means I have to time my entries perfectly.

Also what I have noticed with bunds is it takes some time for some data to be factored into the price. e.g. german industrial data out yesterday, bund took a while to sell off and even rallied 5 points before that - upto 117, before crapping out 30 ticks

all comments appreciated

 

[bundrider]

Well superman I never worked on the floor because i was to young, i left refco when it was mac futures when the good old boy james macloed owned it, i joined the graduate scheme and never looked back really, i dont get what you say about 3k not being enough in the shatz let alone enough in the bund ? and i dont understand how you can say that 3k wasn't my starting clip size ,id throw around 6k easy like it was no ones business. i used have amazing days and big down days but i lived for the buzz and nothing else, its all b*******ks what people say about money management and risk reward i just traded what i felt , the spreads are over volumized and expensive to trade.

to many pussys like yourself who havent got the balls to be the next brave heart or rotter, to attached to the money, you need to play the game, do yourself a favour today before the GDP Figure, if the figure comes out negative sell it hard this war business in Israel will attract to many punters like bush if he gets inviolved theres going to be ww3 so look for opps between us deficit and war relate b******ks

Problems started developing when you spreaders from alll over the joint started nicking ticks.

what spreads you trade bund bobl?

and another thing do yo honestly think 3k min isnt enough size to trade out right in the bund, im under the impression your a man of size then ?

6k lot clip bund you loser! didn't you start on 12k? when I was at Mac I in 2000 I wasn't bothered that the biggest bid offer in the bund was 400/500 lots i'd just clip and lift or smash the market. I really believe you, no honestly, you're my hero. Too young to have been on the floor, retired already? yeah let me think of all the traders at Mac at the time, you must have given Priston a run for his money - another bitter washout more likely.