HG Copper

[zuke]

Anyone on here trading HG copper? I usually trade oil and hogs but am looking into this market. I STILL cannot seem to find adequate reasons for the recent huge sell off. Any pointers to a decent website would be appreciated!

 

[DaveT]

Zuke -

Copper sold off with the other metals , basically on the turnaround (strength) in the dollar. The Copper price has been relatively bouyant at these high levels since blasting up in late 2003.

Whilst some analysts suggest a blow-off top is yet to come (in 2005), you have to consider whether the cycle is nearing it's top now. Copper is considered a leading indicator of the strength of the economy. Should the economic data start to point lower, the funds will sell short and take the market back down (to around 90 area)

Copper has been strong due to:

A) weak Dollar
B) declining inventories (supply)
C) strong global demand (esp China)


For general metals news/analysis:

www.kitco.com
www.321gold.com
www.jsmineset.com

 

[gene]

I've been watching copper for a turnaround. One came, but it was too big a move all at once. I won't sell in a situation like that...yet. I'd like more evidence that a down trend has started.

Yes, the recent move down does seem linked to the dollar's strength. There are no other bearish fundamental that I know of. And why the dollar's sudden burst of energy? Is that intervention by BOJ(or whoever)? If that's the case, the recent dollar rally won't last, therefore copper's recent break shouldn't last, either. I'll stand aside for now. If the market runs away from me, so what? There are other markets out there.

(Pardon my misuse of the language: An up-day or two isn't really a rally, is it?)

 

[zuke]

Zuke -

Copper sold off with the other metals , basically on the turnaround (strength) in the dollar. The Copper price has been relatively bouyant at these high levels since blasting up in late 2003.

Whilst some analysts suggest a blow-off top is yet to come (in 2005), you have to consider whether the cycle is nearing it's top now. Copper is considered a leading indicator of the strength of the economy. Should the economic data start to point lower, the funds will sell short and take the market back down (to around 90 area)

Copper has been strong due to:

A) weak Dollar
B) declining inventories (supply)
C) strong global demand (esp China)


For general metals news/analysis:

www.kitco.com
www.321gold.com
www.jsmineset.com

DAVE T

Thanks for the info...I guess the question is whether the (relative) strength of the dollar will last, or whether it will be hammered again.

 

[zuke]

I've been watching copper for a turnaround. One came, but it was too big a move all at once. I won't sell in a situation like that...yet. I'd like more evidence that a down trend has started.

Yes, the recent move down does seem linked to the dollar's strength. There are no other bearish fundamental that I know of. And why the dollar's sudden burst of energy? Is that intervention by BOJ(or whoever)? If that's the case, the recent dollar rally won't last, therefore copper's recent break shouldn't last, either. I'll stand aside for now. If the market runs away from me, so what? There are other markets out there.

(Pardon my misuse of the language: An up-day or two isn't really a rally, is it?)

Gene,

Im still bearish on the dollar so IMO Copper's recent break shouldnt last. Im not experienced in base metals to be confident in this, but logic(??!!) would suggest a very small long position just to "test the water". I'll probably SB on Finspreads at 0.50 pp until IU've done more tech and fund analysis

 

[gene]

I don't know why I'm bothering to post this article. I believe there are at least a couple of markets that have recently proven that fundamentals mean absolutely nothing. (At least the ones we get to read about.)

09-13 21:43: MARKET TALK: Copper Stocks Turn Corner - ABN
0442 GMT [Dow Jones] ABN AMRO continues to advise that investors steer
clear of copper futures, reduce exposure to leveraged copper miners on belief
current near-record price becoming more vulnerable by the day. Says market has
hit inflection point towards surplus as "supposedly scarce copper turning up
from all quarters," leading to third straight month of stock build. Recent
supply disruptions, disappointing mine output just temporary. Notes rising
refinery capacity utilization: "If refiners now get into their stride, the
expected global copper market surplus is no longer fantasy and fiction, but
fact." (JAD)


And here's the season chart:

 

[pony_x]

gold

if copper falls will gold follow?Any opinions on gold. Fed almost done with rate hikes.How will this affect the dollar? :idea: ?

 

[marketwavez]

Copper........ eliott-wave count

copper wave counrt ....

 

[TWI]

The FSA have just started an investigation into copper market manipulation regarding this recent run up in prices. Not sure it will come to anything as it seems to me it was a bull market and lots of fund money just helped it up there.
As for Gold I think it needs to take a bit of a pullback after the recent run up but I will consider the dip a chance to get back in long.
I am not sure pny x why you think the fed are almost done with hikes, this may be the corporate media spin but the reality i that they are well behind the curve so there are likely to be many more hikes along the way before we see any easing again.