stick a chart up as I cant see it. a h&s which has a target higher than the neckline is an *inverse* h&s. the only thing possibly in line with your numbers is an inv h&s which started in July last year with a neckline around 8900. Head top was around 7400. 1500 up is 10400. Only problem I have with the hypothesis is that I would disagree that its a h&s at all. The second shoulder failed to pentrate the neckline and the second attempt at a second shoulder is very misplaced time wise as well. 2 months for first shoulder to head top, over 5 months from head top to '2nd' shoulder.
On a 2 year chart there is a top of around 10600, early March 02. The bottom of the drop is late Sept 02 at around 7700. These number lead to a retrace of Fib 0.618 of 9492. Not too far away from where we are now and I would say a fairly normal occurrence.
Not so sure we are in a new bull market but given the US election year looming who knows what the start of the year could bring. For now I think we will see some of the gains given up soon.