Gold Remains Bullish as Technical Momentum Rebuilds

[autosignalfx]

Gold’s latest breakout signals a shift in market psychology rather than a simple technical rebound. Traders are rotating back into duration-sensitive hedges as real yields soften and the dollar stabilizes. Monday’s strong bullish candle and a decisive close above the 20-day moving average have reignited systematic buying flows into the metal.

From a technical standpoint, gold’s structure now targets the $4,200 resistance zone, followed by a potential extension toward $4,400 if momentum continues. Support remains near $3,900, which marks the level where trend followers could defend their positions on any pullback.

Macro conditions continue to favor the metal:

US yields have eased slightly, lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

The US Dollar Index remains range-bound, removing a key headwind.

Global equities show defensive rotation, reinforcing gold’s appeal as a portfolio hedge.

Over the coming weeks, gold’s path will depend heavily on US CPI data, upcoming Federal Reserve communications, and fiscal developments in Washington. Softer inflation or a dovish tone could drive yields lower and sustain gold’s bullish trajectory into December.

However, if inflation surprises to the upside or the Fed pushes back on easing expectations, a short-term correction toward $3,900 may occur. Overall, the trend bias remains positive, but momentum is highly data-sensitive in the near term.

🎯 Summary Target:

Immediate Target: $4,200

Extended Target: $4,400

Support Zone: $3,900

Bias: Bullish (as long as real yields stay contained and USD remains neutral)

 

[HB123]

Wanted your take on my technical perspective on gold. I see the obvious resistance at $4161 and support at $3886 which I have drawn on the chart below. I have also highlighted two yellow boxes inddicating potential bullish fair value gaps that may provide support. However, the point that bothers me from a Volume Price Analysis standpoint is that the previous bullish candle had a very wide spread but the corresponding volume bar indicated by the blue arrow has failed to match the size of the bullish candle move in relative terms. There is also a bearish fair value gap just above the resistance (which I did not draw on the chart) which may exude some momentary downward pressure? Taking the volume price anaysis "anomaly" and the bearish fair value gap above would you consider a brief respite in gold prices in the short term?

I also wanted your opinion on the likelihood of the second chart playing out? I created this chart on October 27th 2025 using fibo clusters to see if where the likely bottom for gold might be. Considering the strong bounce off of the support around $3886 do you think that the lower targets are a possibility or is it simply higher for gold from here?

On the fundamental picture I agree with you in the longer term.

 

[HB123]

It seems that the bearish fair value gap (which has now been included in the updated screenshot did act as form of temporary resistance zone for gold prices today. Since the downward move is on relatively high volume I believe there is still some downside potential possibly till the first bullish fair value gap. If the market can move lower on higher volume through this zone this opens up the next zone of support highlighted in yellow. Any views or feedback on this analysis would be much appreciated.

 

[Lea S]

Gold’s latest breakout signals a shift in market psychology rather than a simple technical rebound. Traders are rotating back into duration-sensitive hedges as real yields soften and the dollar stabilizes. Monday’s strong bullish candle and a decisive close above the 20-day moving average have reignited systematic buying flows into the metal.

View attachment 344398

From a technical standpoint, gold’s structure now targets the $4,200 resistance zone, followed by a potential extension toward $4,400 if momentum continues. Support remains near $3,900, which marks the level where trend followers could defend their positions on any pullback.

Macro conditions continue to favor the metal:

US yields have eased slightly, lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

The US Dollar Index remains range-bound, removing a key headwind.

Global equities show defensive rotation, reinforcing gold’s appeal as a portfolio hedge.

Over the coming weeks, gold’s path will depend heavily on US CPI data, upcoming Federal Reserve communications, and fiscal developments in Washington. Softer inflation or a dovish tone could drive yields lower and sustain gold’s bullish trajectory into December.

However, if inflation surprises to the upside or the Fed pushes back on easing expectations, a short-term correction toward $3,900 may occur. Overall, the trend bias remains positive, but momentum is highly data-sensitive in the near term.

🎯 Summary Target:

Immediate Target: $4,200

Extended Target: $4,400

Support Zone: $3,900

Bias: Bullish (as long as real yields stay contained and USD remains neutral)

Gold’s latest breakout signals a shift in market psychology rather than a simple technical rebound. Traders are rotating back into duration-sensitive hedges as real yields soften and the dollar stabilizes. Monday’s strong bullish candle and a decisive close above the 20-day moving average have reignited systematic buying flows into the metal.

View attachment 344398

From a technical standpoint, gold’s structure now targets the $4,200 resistance zone, followed by a potential extension toward $4,400 if momentum continues. Support remains near $3,900, which marks the level where trend followers could defend their positions on any pullback.

Macro conditions continue to favor the metal:

US yields have eased slightly, lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

The US Dollar Index remains range-bound, removing a key headwind.

Global equities show defensive rotation, reinforcing gold’s appeal as a portfolio hedge.

Over the coming weeks, gold’s path will depend heavily on US CPI data, upcoming Federal Reserve communications, and fiscal developments in Washington. Softer inflation or a dovish tone could drive yields lower and sustain gold’s bullish trajectory into December.

However, if inflation surprises to the upside or the Fed pushes back on easing expectations, a short-term correction toward $3,900 may occur. Overall, the trend bias remains positive, but momentum is highly data-sensitive in the near term.

🎯 Summary Target:

Immediate Target: $4,200

Extended Target: $4,400

Support Zone: $3,900

Bias: Bullish (as long as real yields stay contained and USD remains neutral)

Nice chart.
From a micro-structure view, I’m watching the reaction at the next sweep.
Gold hasn’t been trending cleanly – it’s been sweep → pullback → short impulse for days.
The next pullback will tell whether $4,200 is realistic or not.

---

 

[HB123]

• Gold prices initially came sharply lower on Friday 14th November into the fair value gap that was highlighted between $4149 - $4028 on the daily chart.
• Later in the US session the precious metal regained some of its initial losses, bouncing from $4032 and closing the day near $4085.
• The relatively strong bearish candle for 14th November was created on about average volume which points to there being still some bearishness in the market.
• If the market can break below the previous low of $4032 and close below $4046 then the next downside target would be the fair value gap between $3991 - $3891 and the support at $3886.

 

[HB123]

• Gold prices closed at appropximately $4045 just below the blue previous resistance line turned to support at around $4046 on just below average volume.
• The volume looks inline with the spread of the candle and no major anomaly is visible so far in terms of price action and volume.
• With the break below the resitance turned support/the blue line on the chart as well as the fair value gap support zone the next targets seems likely to be the second fair value gap zone and support provided in the chart between approximately $3941 - $3886.
• Will be waiting to see any changes in volume and prices in these zones.

 

[HB123]

• Gold created what looks like a hammer candlestick on slightly below average volume near previous resistance now turned into support and within a fair value gap support zone.
• Under normal situation the hammer formation around support after a brief down trend might indicate a potential reversal signal. However, one needs to bear in mind that this has occured on slightly below average volume. The slightly lower than average volume suggests less conviction behind the buyer's pushback, making the potential reversal less certain on its own.

 

[HB123]

• Will be keeping a close eye on how price reacts to the bearish fair value gap resistance zone highlighted in pink in the chart below.
• If price gets rejected off this zone on strong volume and forms a bearish candlestick pattern then the lower fair value gaps might be the next targets.
• On the 4H chart the strong move up does not appear to be on above average volume which points to an anomaly signalling that the bullish move may possibly not sustained.

 

[HB123]

• Yesterday's price action in gold formed an inverted hammer pattern on the daily chart at a temporary support zone.
• From a textbook candlestick pattern formation, an inverted hammer usually indicates a bullish reversal especially when formed at key support zones.
• However, it is imporant to note that the candlestick pattern was formed on below average volume which acts as a warning flag, indicating a lack of strong conviction behind the initial buying attempt.
• Price action on the daily chart has been mainly rangebound/sideways and indecisive the past few days as we await US data with the NFP numbers coming out today. The gold market will probably choose a direction once a catalyst appears.

 

[timsk]

Anyone who's interested in gold's future prospects from a fundamental perspective - rather than a purely technical one - might find this interview with maneco64 interesting. Enjoy . . .