Gold and Silver - trading the "mojo"

[Yuppie13]

Hi,

I have been "following the market" since about 15 years in one way or the other, did some trading, worked as a stockbroker etc.

Recently I found my preferred market to trade: Gold and Silver.
I think the movements here are strongly directional and not too fast to react (vs. FX).
It looks to me these both markets offer the best setups for high risk - reward trades.
Also, the markets are not influenced by irrelevant newsflow like FX and stocks.

Anyone else maily trading silver and gold? I would be interested in the strategies you are running and to share some setups.

Cheers,
Yuppie

 

[rogue8]

Oh, hello. I'm not trading them. Yet (investing in bullion though). But have you come across the LBMA XAUUSD short AM, long PM fix strategy?

Basically go short at 10:30am GMT, exit at 3:30pm GMT. Go long at this time (3:30), keep trade open overnight and exit at 10:30am). Rinse and repeat.

See here: https://marketforceanalysis.com/articles/latest_article_081310.html
And here: Overnight Long/Intraday Short Gold Fund More Than Doubles In Just Over A Year: Generates 43% Annualized Return | ZeroHedge

I'm running some 2009-2012 numbers in excel using retail broker price data (probably not particularly accurate or consistent). Throwing in a Stop Loss with 2% risk and 45pips (45cents) spread into the strategy, as a rough guide, it seems wildly profitable since 2001, especially after 2009... too good to be true?? Too good as in £10,000 parlayed into £987,484 over 1585 trades. It doesn't consider things like entry or exit slippage though.

It's significantly more profitable than using the LBMA fix prices due to the price discrepancies (more pips won). I'll populate my backtest with the full 2001-2012 data later and I'm still trying to future-proof and pick holes in the trading model. I can't wait to forward test it...!

Regards,

r8

 

[YouAreNotFree]

I've had my own little Gold trading system based around the London Fix time for a while now. Nice and simple, fun too as there is absolutely no thinking involved. Purely mechanical.

 

[rogue8]

I've had my own little Gold trading system based around the London Fix time for a while now. Nice and simple, fun too as there is absolutely no thinking involved. Purely mechanical.

I take it by your little thumbs up self-portrait that it's going profitably well? Well done, man! This schizo Euro is freaking mental and doing my head in. A change of pace would do me good.



Photo of me saying "cool" -------------------------->----------------------------->> " "

.

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[YouAreNotFree]

Yep, going very well. Mine is somewhat different to the one ZH outlines, i'm long only, but it is still based around the London Fix time.


Here is Fridays chart, price went virtually straight up from the Fix time( vertical red line) I have found Fridays to be especially good, for my method anyways.

 

[diceboy]

Sounds really intresting. Anyone have any links / reference or dummy guides?

 

[rogue8]

Sounds really intresting. Anyone have any links / reference or dummy guides?

Unfortunately, no references anywhere, diceboy. At least I couldn't find anything apart from the links posted above. It's more of a DIY job but as YouAreNotFree said, his one works! A critical factor is getting a low spread but Oanda's 50pips is good enough (since 2006 anyway). (Ignore my previous P/L charts because there's an error in their formulation).

I can say that such a strategy has been giving higher % returns since 2009 since the overall XAUUSD trend has strengthened. You might as well demo trade it and see what happens...

 

[YouAreNotFree]

Everything you need is in the links above. Like I said, it was so obvious I noticed it just by having a chart open for a few months. I had never even heard of this method.

Speaking of precious metals....






=






Maybe Mr Sprott is buying his $1billion of physical but I would suspect it's uber leveraged momentum traders similar to the Spring period last year. I'll continue playing to the long side for now.

 

[YouAreNotFree]

pop

 

[squall321]

cheap silver here

 

[YouAreNotFree]

Selling right from 61.8 fib, close below 200dma. Huge outside day bar.

Everything is due a correction imo. When I suggested the other day that it was short term bubble, I didn't expect such a large pop.

I do love Silver though. Such a volatile beast. You can't take your eyes off the thing or it'll slap you in the face.

 

[Pnty]

Gold currently at 1698.5 and is going to 1700 level shortly.