Best Thread GBP/USD Breakout

[bbmac]

'key Resistance'

Unlucky on the B/o again....just failed to get the 20pips?

Mni were describing the 6235/42 area as ' key resistance ' earlier, and if you look at the 4hr chart you can see it is a previous 4hr swing hi x3=previous resistance=potential resistance zone that is co-exisstant on the Daily t/f as a prev swing hi also (and obviously the 1hr) Also there is the 200sma on 4hr and not shown is the 23.6% fib of the main 6876-5830 fall.

The 1hr t/f below shows how price puulled back from that potential res zone descibed above and found support at the prev 1hr/4hr swing hi=prev res=potential rbs zone co-existant with 23.6% of latest swing up on 1hr 6061-6232

 

[sebby2468]

For me on breakouts i am looking for previous daily or weekly highs/lows to be broken, not necessarily time based on a certain candle,but looking at the chart the price touched previous 2 days high,small pullback then powered through,if you had played the "price break" at around 61.94 you would have got your 20pips.

 

[dave114a]

I have strong downtrend trigger in place. Looking for the pair to go south.

Entry if triggered will be at 1.6133.

It would need to hit this entry before 9:30 news though and is showing no sign of this at present.

 

[bbmac]

Daily downtrend

Not strictly on the b/o subject, with apologies to Claudia, but a close above 6238 today would put the daily downtrend in some doubt, off the 5830 bottom see-ing that as a LL, then LH, HL and that close above 6238 would be a H.

 

[everyonerich]

just entered short, please dont follow.

 

[spreader_legger]

I went long today at 6:30 at 1.6208, got out @ 1.62383 for +30.
You guys think I got in too early?

 

[HawkTrader]

just entered short, please dont follow.

Are you sure?

Where is your stop placed?

What is your target?

IMO I expect GBP to rise as it's just passed the daily/hourly level, but everyone is different I guess. :innocent:

Remember that Manufacturing Production m/m has just come out right now.

 

[everyonerich]

I went long today at 6:30 at 1.6208, got out @ 1.62383 for +30.
You guys think I got in too early?

what timeframe you looking at, and whats the entry criteria

 

[everyonerich]

Are you sure?

Where is your stop placed?

What is your target?

IMO I expect GBP to rise as it's just passed the daily/hourly level, but everyone is different I guess. :innocent:

Remember that Manufacturing Production m/m has just come out right now.

i had manual stop if candle full candle formed above the orange line.. well.. just want to let you know i test this strategy for the first time.

looking at 1h S/R and fibo... but both isnt really perfect setup for this entry.

 

[spreader_legger]

I'm simply using neutron bomb's entry criteria .... break of overnight range M15.
No real magic really, just standard breakout pullback (although I realise some of you may be sceptical and instead play the pure break). I'm still in the process of backtesting to see if it is a viable option.

what timeframe you looking at, and whats the entry criteria

 

[bbmac]

Stop placement.

This system is what it is and you can't argue with historical stats, but this morning showed the real weakness of a candle breakout system with a fixed arbritrary stop...in that the b/o was with trend, (ie in the most probable direction) but took the stop (whether it was @ b/e or the full -20pip stop,) after being just a few pips shy of it's 20pip target....only for it to continue well past that target after a pullback and i'm wondering if anyone has done any research on the effect on resulstr if the stop were placed somewhere more strategic and sensible and the target adjusted accordingly?

 

[MajorDutch]

Re: Stop placement.

its a funny old game, i lost 20 pips on the b/o strategy using the rigid rules, then timed a re-entry into the bull trend and took out 40 pips so up 20 pips for the day. I am finding it hard using a rigid system as when you see S/R in the way, stochastics look bad and S/L not at previous swing it is hard to put cash on the line. but if the stats on the rigid system look good the numbers dont lie.

I am liking the 3 ducks system then using BBmac's system to identify re-entries.

 

[AJ100]

Hi Claudia and all you guys. Been following this thread since just before xmas and have read it from the beginning. I think its a great thread and am amazed at how consistent such a simple system has been. obviously things got a little iffy leading up to xmas but that is to be expected. Now the 'iffyness' seems to have continued into the new year as the system is only breakeven since Jan 4. I was just wondering if you think the system will be profitable again as the market settles down after xmas or has it had its day so to speak and in need of tweaking or replacing?

 

[GumRai]

Hi Claudia and all you guys. Been following this thread since just before xmas and have read it from the beginning. I think its a great thread and am amazed at how consistent such a simple system has been. obviously things got a little iffy leading up to xmas but that is to be expected. Now the 'iffyness' seems to have continued into the new year as the system is only breakeven since Jan 4. I was just wondering if you think the system will be profitable again as the market settles down after xmas or has it had its day so to speak and in need of tweaking or replacing?

As most systems experience periods of losses, if the worst that happens with this one is periods of break-even, I would call that brilliant

 

[MajorDutch]

Hi AJ100

joking aside you shouldn't be broke by March if you are using proper money management even if this system is 60/40 down. You are only risking 1 or 2% of your account per trade otherwise you run the risk of ruin with any system. I am thankful for Bbmac for explaining this to me and guiding me to towards mark douglas book 'trading in the zone' which covers this in more details. if you want to risk large amounts of your account its prob better to go down the casino as at least you might get some food and drink thrown in! lol.

 

[gamma]

Re: Stop placement.

This system is what it is and you can't argue with historical stats, but this morning showed the real weakness of a candle breakout system with a fixed arbritrary stop...in that the b/o was with trend, (ie in the most probable direction) but took the stop (whether it was @ b/e or the full -20pip stop,) after being just a few pips shy of it's 20pip target....only for it to continue well past that target after a pullback and i'm wondering if anyone has done any research on the effect on resulstr if the stop were placed somewhere more strategic and sensible and the target adjusted accordingly?

Hi BBmac,
Its a good idea to combine the breakout with a fib pullback and use price action to enter in the direction of the bigger trend.

 

[foredog]

Markets have been very choppy lately, such is life, just keep taking the trades and you should make the money, but don't be afraid to exit a trade before you're stop loss is hit. The trade may turn around and go into profit after this, it may not, but it's gping to be easier when the trades flow to make back a few -5's than trying to make back -20's....just a thought

 

[spreader_legger]

Re: Stop placement.

I believe that's how BBMAC plays it
Also looks for fib to coincide with M5 dip (in uptrend) together with OSMA divergence and some kind of BOL (Bollinger band) action.

In terms of Price action as trigger however (looking at J16 method), I would find that this method would filter out too many trades (perhaps I am too discerning?)

Hi BBmac,
Its a good idea to combine the breakout with a fib pullback and use price action to enter in the direction of the bigger trend.

 

[wil68]

Whilst I'm sure all these different things work well for the traders using them, surely the whole point to Claudia's thread, is to show that things don't need to be complicated to take a reasonable amount of pips on a regular basis. As far as I can see there are two rules - buy if it goes through the high, sell if it goes through the low. It can't be argued that it has worked as well over the last couple of weeks, but I can't see why you'd change unless it fails to deliver for another 6 - 8 weeks. Take a look back over the thread or back test last year again, the method delivered on 9 out of 10 trades. I'm not saying it will work forever, and it's time is maybe up, but don't panic yet and fill up those screens with loads of indicators.

I don't trade this method, but like it..........

 

[spreader_legger]

What period have you backtested? ... caws I ain't gettin 90% over the period I was looking at

Whilst I'm sure all these different things work well for the traders using them, surely the whole point to Claudia's thread, is to show that things don't need to be complicated to take a reasonable amount of pips on a regular basis. As far as I can see there are two rules - buy if it goes through the high, sell if it goes through the low. It can't be argued that it has worked as well over the last couple of weeks, but I can't see why you'd change unless it fails to deliver for another 6 - 8 weeks. Take a look back over the thread or back test last year again, the method delivered on 9 out of 10 trades. I'm not saying it will work forever, and it's time is maybe up, but don't panic yet and fill up those screens with loads of indicators.

I don't trade this method, but like it..........