AntaresScorpius
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This week, markets are focused on persistent US inflation, which is putting upward pressure on the dollar, countered by signs of industrial weakness in Europe. Economic Data Analysis (Week of April 13-17, 2026)
• US (Inflation and Industrial Data)
◦ PPI & Core PPI (Tuesday): Consensus expects a +0.3% m/m increase for the Core PPI, bringing the annual reading to 4.1%. Previous data has already shown an unexpected acceleration (3.9% in February), suggesting that production cost pressures remain elevated.
◦ Philly Fed & Industrial Production (Thursday): These data will serve to confirm whether the US manufacturing sector is holding up despite high rates.
◦ Initial Jobless Claims (Thursday): Expected at around 210,000. A lower-than-expected figure would reinforce the idea that the labor market is still too hot to allow for rapid rate cuts from the Fed.
◦ Existing Home Sales (Monday): The housing market showed signs of recovery with sales exceeding 4 million units, a sign that consumers are absorbing current rate levels.
• Eurozone (Inflation and Growth Data)
◦ Eurozone CPI (Thursday): Estimated annual inflation is 2.5% (up from 1.9% in February). This rebound is mainly driven by the energy component.
◦ Industrial Production (Wednesday): Recent data from France showed a sharp contraction (-0.7%), much worse than expected. The eurozone aggregate figure is expected to confirm this manufacturing fragility.
◦ Trade Balance (Friday): The focus will be on the resilience of exports in Italy and the Eurozone after recent trade deficits.
◦ Impact on EUR/USD The EUR/USD is under bearish pressure for two main reasons:
1. Monetary Policy Divergence: While US inflation (PPI) is rising and pushing the Fed to keep rates high ("hawkish"), European industrial weakness (French industrial production) is fueling expectations of ECB intervention to support the economy.
2. Market Sentiment: Geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East tend to favor the dollar as a safe haven, limiting the euro's attempts to rebound.
What to Watch: If Tuesday's PPI data beats expectations again, we could see EUR/USD test new weekly lows. A European CPI reading above 2.5% on Thursday could instead offer temporary support to the euro.
• US (Inflation and Industrial Data)
◦ PPI & Core PPI (Tuesday): Consensus expects a +0.3% m/m increase for the Core PPI, bringing the annual reading to 4.1%. Previous data has already shown an unexpected acceleration (3.9% in February), suggesting that production cost pressures remain elevated.
◦ Philly Fed & Industrial Production (Thursday): These data will serve to confirm whether the US manufacturing sector is holding up despite high rates.
◦ Initial Jobless Claims (Thursday): Expected at around 210,000. A lower-than-expected figure would reinforce the idea that the labor market is still too hot to allow for rapid rate cuts from the Fed.
◦ Existing Home Sales (Monday): The housing market showed signs of recovery with sales exceeding 4 million units, a sign that consumers are absorbing current rate levels.
• Eurozone (Inflation and Growth Data)
◦ Eurozone CPI (Thursday): Estimated annual inflation is 2.5% (up from 1.9% in February). This rebound is mainly driven by the energy component.
◦ Industrial Production (Wednesday): Recent data from France showed a sharp contraction (-0.7%), much worse than expected. The eurozone aggregate figure is expected to confirm this manufacturing fragility.
◦ Trade Balance (Friday): The focus will be on the resilience of exports in Italy and the Eurozone after recent trade deficits.
◦ Impact on EUR/USD The EUR/USD is under bearish pressure for two main reasons:
1. Monetary Policy Divergence: While US inflation (PPI) is rising and pushing the Fed to keep rates high ("hawkish"), European industrial weakness (French industrial production) is fueling expectations of ECB intervention to support the economy.
2. Market Sentiment: Geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East tend to favor the dollar as a safe haven, limiting the euro's attempts to rebound.
What to Watch: If Tuesday's PPI data beats expectations again, we could see EUR/USD test new weekly lows. A European CPI reading above 2.5% on Thursday could instead offer temporary support to the euro.
