FTSE 100 trading system - only 10 days data but 100% hit rate so far - need more data

[Rupert206]

The system is a simple opening range breakout system that I've been back testing.

However my spread betting company only give 10 days of past data on the 30 minute time frame. So wondering if anyone with more data can help me test it.

Currently for the past 10 days it has captured 153 pips, so 15 points odd a day on average.

The bar used for this system is the 8:00 - 08:30 bar.

You go short on the break of the 30 minute bar, stop placed 2 points above the high of the 30 minute bar. The profit target is the high minus the low of the 30 minute opening ftse bar.

The reverse for going long.

Over the past 10 days non of the trades have been stopped out. I'm sure this is just a good run, so would be grateful if someone could test for the past year or so to give a better idea of the hit rate.

Cheers.

 

[counter_violent]

Try one of the MT4 broker demo accts (FXCM for eg). A few yrs worth of history on 30m TF.

 

[Rupert206]

Thanks counter_violent, I will download a demo.

Another wining trade on this system today, so 11 in a row now.

Opening range was 19 points.

High -6388
Low - 6369

Buy @ 6388. Target of 6407

 

[kalott]

FXCodeBase.COM: Forex Chart Indicators and Development • View topic - Breakout indicator


trading station 2

 

[kalott]

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/indices/101982-big-ben-ftse100.html

 

[new_trader]

The system is a simple opening range breakout system that I've been back testing.

However my spread betting company only give 10 days of past data on the 30 minute time frame. So wondering if anyone with more data can help me test it.

Currently for the past 10 days it has captured 153 pips, so 15 points odd a day on average.

The bar used for this system is the 8:00 - 08:30 bar.

You go short on the break of the 30 minute bar, stop placed 2 points above the high of the 30 minute bar. The profit target is the high minus the low of the 30 minute opening ftse bar.

The reverse for going long.

Over the past 10 days non of the trades have been stopped out. I'm sure this is just a good run, so would be grateful if someone could test for the past year or so to give a better idea of the hit rate.

Cheers.

:!: To trade a simple system like this before testing it with anything less than 10 years of historical data is financial suicide.

 

[Rupert206]

Another winner today...12 in a row now. Have used metatrader to back test manually and the win rate since January is pretty impressive.

Seems to work well on a range of between 10 and 20 points.

Opening range was 17 points.

High -6437
Low - 6420

Buy @ 6437. Target of 6454 hit.

 

[ordinaryguy76]

However my spread betting company only give 10 days of past data on the 30 minute time frame. So wondering if anyone with more data can help me test it.

Check this out:
hxxp://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/historical/

 

[ZEN archer]

Hi Rupert.
I wouldn't trade it with real money:!:

PS Maybe you should read (if you like reading) Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and the Markets by N N Taleb

All the best

 

[counter_violent]

I assume yesterday was a stop out.
Looks like today delivered again.

Don't be put off by the nay-sayers...most of them would not even bother to do the work in the first place.

 

[new_trader]

:!: To trade a simple system like this before testing it with anything less than 10 years of historical data is financial suicide.

:!: I am strongly advising you: Save yourself from future emotional and financial heartache and TEST your system first with a minimum of 10 years of historical data.

I'm sure I'm not welcome here by saying the above, but you will bitterly regret not 'listening' to me.:!:

 

[ZEN archer]

...most of them would not even bother to do the work in the first place.

You are wrong there CV - tried similar systems with lots of back testing.

Maybe you have different experience with them? Why not shed some light for us?

Anyway I wouldn't trade it with real money:!:

 

[counter_violent]

You are very wrong there CV - tried similar systems with lots of back testing.

Maybe you have different experience with them? Why not shed some light for us?:whistling

Anyway I wouldn't trade it with real money

Look, without wishing to get into a long winded debate about "systems". What the OP has described is the outline of a very basic strategy.

As far as I can tell, he is on a journey of forward testing, refining, testing, refining and so on. There's nothing wrong with this approach as long as lessons are learned.

It's not as if the number of points, as stops and targets are going to end in ruination of a trading acct. (10-30)

I'm not convinced that a single system or strategy will stay working all of the time. Thats pretty much why I will trade a strategy through a bad period regardless, but with a sub-set of rules (other trades) (management) running alongside until things return to normality.

10 years 30m back test indeed ffs.

 

[new_trader]

You are wrong there CV - tried similar systems with lots of back testing.

Me too, years ago. That's why I abandoned 'system' trading altogether. They ALL, without exception, exhibit the same characteristics in the long run.

Maybe you have different experience with them? Why not shed some light for us?

Anyway I wouldn't trade it with real money:!:

I wouldn't either, but then again, I am speaking from experience. Ignorance is bliss.

 

[Liquid validity]

:!: I am strongly advising you: Save yourself from future emotional and financial heartache and TEST your system first with a minimum of 10 years of historical data.

I'm sure I'm not welcome here by saying the above, but you will bitterly regret not 'listening' to me.:!:

I have to strongly agree with that as well.
The vast overwhelming majority of ideas tested that rigorously usually fall apart.

Having said that, the basic premise of what is described here does make enough
sense to at least be worth testing...

10 years of data is good, I will say that depending on frequency you may get
away with slightly less, however that is offset against the fact that a smaller dataset will have less cycle variation.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

most of them would not even bother to do the work in the first place.

Nope, me neither. I would not waste effort on anything people are not willing to put money on. Demo trading doesn't count because there isn't the guy on the other side of the trade looking for a profit.

 

[new_trader]

thread title - FTSE 100 trading system - only 10 days data but 100% hit rate so far - need more

FFS

 

[Liquid validity]

Me too, years ago. That's why I abandoned 'system' trading altogether. They ALL, without exception, exhibit the same characteristics in the long run.

I wouldn't either, but then again, I am speaking from experience. Ignorance is bliss.

Bill Eckhardt probably wouldn't agree, neither do I.
That doesn't mean I am saying a systematic approach can't fail,
even if its robust it can still fail.

The thing a lot of people overlook is that a discretionary approach can fail
as well.
Whatever the approach, anyone and anything can fail, at anytime.

 

[new_trader]

Bill Eckhardt probably wouldn't agree, neither do I.
That doesn't mean I am saying a systematic approach can't fail,
even if its robust it can still fail.

The thing a lot of people overlook is that a discretionary approach can fail
as well.
Whatever the approach, anyone and anything can fail, at anytime.

You assumed I meant fail, I didn't. I said they exhibit the same characteristics in the long run.

 

[ZEN archer]

As far as I can tell, he is on a journey of forward testing, refining, testing, refining and so on. There's nothing wrong with this approach as long as lessons are learned.

Agree with you CV

Why not try it on a demo account. That way he can learn about trading without losing money and about this kind of systems (how bad they are):smart: