From paper to real money trading

101116

Member
86 4
I have done some profitable 'gambling' in the recent years. Started with online poker a few years back and moved to sports last year. Both immediately started making profits but of course I have experienced many difficult drawbacks.
I was able to manage my bankroll during hard times and kept my head below the surface.

Last winter I first time heard of spread betting and started to grow interest and at the same time lost interest in poker. Since then I've been trying to learn basics of the market.
I first tried trading indices, then forex, but came to realize you need to be in and out of a trade so fast that all your profits are going to your broker in form of the spread. Also the execution wasn't fast enough. I guess it's called scalping.

Now I have started to only bother with equities. Spread is huge, some 20+ times that in indices or forex but I have found out that the way stocks trend suits me(my tools) better.

So I came up with a "trading system" and have been working on it for a couple of months.
Last month I made 48 papertrades of which 32 were profitable(66,67%). Average win being 2,37x average loss, totalling 3100ticks(another ~1k ticks paid in spread).
I do realize 48 trades isn't much and this kind of profit might be the best month I'll ever have but circumstances are that I'm going to have to take my shot now or get a job.

I'll be mixing paper and realmoney trades for now. Hopefully my streak goes on and I can start taking real trades on the larger stocks too.

I still have 3 winners(pretty big) running. I'll try to update my trades and stats here from now on.

GOOD LUCK :clover:
 

101116

Member
86 4
At the moment I use hourly candles but I'm kinda planning on taking it up if I manage to run this.
 

101116

Member
86 4
You need to place your stop further away with longer trades and it takes more capita. Still it needs to be long enough to beat the spread.
 

101116

Member
86 4
Summary of trades last week. All papermoney.

LONG

EADS @ 30.39
Johnson and Johnson @ 68.55
Pernord Ricard @ 88.15
EADS @ 30.30
Vivendi @ 15.58
Cap Gemini @ 30.21
France Telecom @ 11.21
L'Oreal @ 100.7
RWE AG @ 33.17


CLOSED

Bayer @ 62.36 +123p (1,97%)
Deutche Telecom @ 9.22 +13p (1,41%)
Fresenius & CO @ 86 +1p (0,01%)
Lafarge @ 37.46 +76p (2,03%)
Legrand @ 26.65 +44p (1,65%)
Pernord Ricard @ 88.26 +70p (0,79%)
SAP AG @ 52.35 +62p (1,18%)
Fresenius Medical @ 57.92 -2p (-0,03%)
Technip SA @ 86.8 +130p (1,5%)
RWE AG @ 33.04 +165p (4,99%)
Muench Rueck @ 117.18 +256p (2,18%)
Safran @ 28.32 +72p (2,54%)
EADS @ 30.22 -17p (-0,56%)
Volkswagen @ 145.31 +722p (4,97%)
Johnson and Johnson @ 68.27 -28p (-0,41%)
Pernord Ricard @ 88.42 +27p (0,31%)
Renault @ 36.56 +169p (4,62%)


OPEN POSITIONS

Cap Gemini @ 30.21
EADS @ 30.30
France Telecom @ 11.21
L'Oreal @ 100.70
RWE AG @ 33.17
Vivendi @ 15.58


ALL TRADES

Closed: 54
Profitable: 36 (66,67%)
Total: 4019p (60,85%)
Reward/Risk: 2,82 (135,7/48,1)


I started to develop a strategy for bankroll management. So far I just traded the minimum size.
According to Kelly formula I would make the maximum profit by risking 48% of my bankroll per trade. That would be insane. I'm not just going for max profit but also low risk of ruin. Also my stats are not going to look like that after X trades. Third thing I have to consider is that I'm not going to make single trades, most of the time I'll have multiple open positions and I need margin for that.

I came up with using Kelly multiplier 0.1 (4.66% atm) and that is on required margin vs available margin.

Now I'm going to plan next weeks trades. What a great way to spend hangover.
 
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101116

Member
86 4
Planning trades is boring so I decided to introduce

The Trade Of The Week: Volkswagen 138.09 - 145.31 +722p (4,97%)

What a horrible exit. This one I had to exit with something I'd call emergency exit. It was going down very fast.
 

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101116

Member
86 4
Last week started out bad. I was trading wrong stocks and one of my exit strategies proved to be really bad. I needed to brainstorm.

In the end I managed to take my trading system to the next level and figured out some stuff to be watching that could help me in the future. Also started to take trades on 2H bars.
I'd call it a good week even tho I lost when I could've been winning.
Improving is more important at the moment.

I didn't take trades on real account for obvious reasons.

One more thing that bothered me a little was deciding not to take some trades that would've made nice profits.
 
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101116

Member
86 4
Summary of trades last week. All papermoney.

LONG

GDF Suez @ 19,41 S:5
Cap Gemini @ 30,18 S:3
L'Oreal @ 100,96 S:0,5
Johnson and Johnson @ 68,52 S:1
Cap Gemini @ 30,25 S:3
E.On AG @ 17,77 S:5
L'Oreal @ 101 S:0,5
Vallourec @ 36,82 S:2
RWE AG @ 32,85 S:2
L'Oreal @ 100,81 S:0,5
Vallourec @ 36,54 S:2
Lafarge @ 36,98 S:2
Siemens @ 73,98 S:1
IBM @ 199,07 S:0,5
Vallourec @ 36,54 S:2
Kraft Foods @ 40,74 S:2
Siemens @ 74,20 S:1
Kraft Foods @ 40,70 S:2
Johnson and Johnson @ 68,27 S:1
Fresenius Medical @ 57,79 S:1


CLOSED

EADS @ 30.48 S:10 +18p (0,59%)
L'Oreal @ 100,1 S:0,5 -60p (-0,60%)
Cap Gemini @ 30,03 S:3 -18p (-0,60%)
France Telecom @ 11,13 S:7 -8p (-0,72%)
RWE AG @ 33,24 S:3 +7p (0,21%)
Cap Gemini @ 29,96 S:3 -22p (-0,73%)
GDF Suez @ 19,42 S:5 +1p (0,05%)
L'Oreal @ 100,14 S:0,5 -82p (-0,82%)
Vivendi @ 15,69 S:6 +11p (0,70%)
L'Oreal @ 100,19 S:0,5 -81p (-0,81%)
Johnson and Johnson @ 68,49 S:1 -3p (-0,04%)
RWE AG @ 32,88 S:2 +3p (0,09%)
Cap Gemini @ 30,08 S:3 -17p (-0,57%)
L'Oreal @ 99,99 S:0,5 -82p (-0,82%)
Vallourec @ 36,19 S:2 -63p (-1,74%)
E.On AG @ 17,9 S:5 +13p (0,73%)
Lafarge @ 37,64 S:2 +66p (+1,75%)
IBM @ 198,06 S:0,5 -101p (-0,51%)
Siemens @ 73,75 S:1 -23p (-0,31%)
Kraft Foods @ 40,57 S:2 -17p (-0,42%)
Johnson and Johnson @ 68,09 -18p (-0,26%)
Fresenius Medical @ 57,43 S:1 -36p (-0,63%)
Kraft Foods @ 40,60 S:2 -10p (-0,25%)


OPEN POSITIONS

Siemens @ 74,2 S:1
Vallourec @ 39,18 S:2


ALL TRADES

Closed: 77
Profitable: 43 (55,84%)
Total: 3497p (55,15%)
Reward/Risk: 2,63 (116,3/44,3)

The risk on marginal vs marginal is now 4,7% -> 2,8%
 
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101116

Member
86 4
The Trade Of The Week: Lafarge 36,98 - 37,64 S:2 +66p (1,75%)

Another exit went bad. Could be a place for improvement.
 

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101116

Member
86 4
I'm playing around with excel trying to learn some charting. I'm trying to develop a method which lets me compare the performance of my filters I use for stock selection. This is going to take weeks of forward data.

So I came up with a graph of my trades so far. In order of trades taken(not closed) but that makes little difference.

If I was optimistic I'd say that after a while € will cross over P now that my avg size is more than 1.
 

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101116

Member
86 4
I'm going to take another shot at the indices. It's so much cheaper to trade and there's propably a trade to be made every day with 15min bars. Can't just let it go.

Just by eyeballing the charts I can tell that if my system for stocks is going to work so is this. Some finetuning needed for sure.

These trades I'm going to separate from stocks.

GL :clover:
 

101116

Member
86 4
Trading the indices on 15M charts was a brainfart. No biggie but...

Very poor week to start taking real positions (n)


CLOSED

LONG

PAPER

VK @ 38,61 +207 (5,36%)
SIE @ 74,81 +61 (0,82%)
FME @ 57,93 +5 (0,09%)
XOM @ 87,83 -13 (-0,15%)
CVX @ 112,61 +9 (0,08%)
KFT @ 41,03 +51 (1,24%)
LHA @ 9,93 -2 (-0,20%)
FP @ 39,77 -22 (-0,55%)
JNJ @ 67,54 -63 (-0,93%)
FP @ 39,68 -38 (-0,96%)
CVX @ 111,42 -68 (-0,61%)
AI @ 94,8 -66 (-0,70%)
FME @ 56,32 -32 (-0,57%)

REAL

EDF @ 16,41 -12 (-0,73%)
EDF @ 16,38 -17 (-1,04%)
VIV @ 15,63 -10 (-0,64%)
FTE @ 11,24 -8 (-0,71%)
VIV @ 15,59 -16 (-1,03%)
EDF @ 16,26 -24 (-1,48%)
VIV @ 15,56 -22 (-1,41%)
EDF @ 16,31 -9 (-0,55%)
VIV @ 15,66 -10 (-0,64%)
FTE @ 11,18 -8 (-0,72%)
LHA @ 9,77 -7 (-0,72%)

DAX @ 7028,7 -10,1 (-0,14%)
DJI @ 13196 -13 (-0,10%)
CAC @ 3477 -11,5 (-0,33%)
CAC @ 3474,3 -12 (-0,35%)
DAX @ 7015,7 -19,6 (-0,28%)
DAX @ 7051,5 +29,5 (0,42%)
CAC @ 3474 +3,5 (+0,10%)
DJI @ 13167 +13 (+0,10%)
CAC @ 3460 -13,3 (-0,38%)


ALL STOCKS

Closed: 104
Profitable: 48 (46,15%)
Total: 3233p (45,98%)
Reward/Risk: 2,65 (111,2/37,6)


Luckily I have made a mistake when counting my risk. It should have been higher.
2,8% -> 2,3%
 
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101116

Member
86 4
The Trade Of The Week: Vallourec 36,54 - 38,61 +207 (5,36%)

Edit

Some of the trades on the attached graph are not closed yet so they count as 0.
 

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101116

Member
86 4
Another troublesome week. Had several gaps angainst me and my overall view wasn't correct. I'm also starting to doubt wether it's possible to beat the spread on the small/european stocks.

Now I'm first time in a position where I think I should be trading some timeframes up and some down on the same instruments. I was planning that when this happens I'm not going to trade.

But I will. Only papertrades tho...


CLOSED

LONG

PAPER

XOM @ 87,65 +28 (0,32%)
CVX @ 111,73 +8 (0,07%)
VK @ 37,62 -10 (-0,27%)
RWE @ 32,89 +42 (1,28)
FP @ 39,24 -18 (-0,46%)
FME @ 56,05 -64 (-1,14%)
SIE @ 74,99 +55 (0,73%)
VK @ 37,38 -35 (-0,94%)
JNJ @ 67,12 -51 (-0,76%)
FP @ 39,37 +3 (0,08%)
VK @ 36,27 -39 (-1,08%)
FME @ 56,98 +23 (0,40%)

DJI @ 13153 +18 (0,14%)

REAL

VIV @ 15,53 -8 (-0,52%)
LHA @ 9,75 -11 (-1,13%)
FTE @ 11,27 -1 (-0,09%)
VIV @ 15,52 -13 (-0,84%)
VIV @ 15,16 -44 (-2,90%)
LHA @ 9,71 -6 (-0,62%)
FTE @ 10,98 -5 (-0,46%)
LHA @ 9,63 -9 (-0,93%)
FTE @ 11,04 -13 (-1,18%)
LHA @ 9,63 -9 (-0,93%)
UTX @ 79,59 +53 (0,67%)

CAC @ 3445 +16,5 (0,48%)
DAX @ 6994 +51,7 (0,74%)


ALL STOCKS

Closed: 127
Profitable: 55 (43,31%)
Total: 3109p (35,30%)
Reward/Risk: 2,98 (100,9/33,9)


I'm unsure if I should count my R/R by points, euros or percentage. All flawed in their own way. Last time I did euros but I used wrong numbers on the post. This time I'm going back to points.
Also I did poor job following the risk per trade. Need to improve.
2,3% -> 2,1%
 
 
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