Forex Market News and Analysis

HotForexsignal

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Forex News - Dollar hits four-month high as worries over European lockdowns, U.S. taxes sap risk appetite

The dollar hit a four-month high on Wednesday as concerns over a 3rd COVID-19 wave in Europe, potential U.S. tax hikes, and escalating tensions between the West and China sapped risk appetite.

The dollar index rose to a four-month top of 92.608 in early London trade, its highest since Nov. 23.

The gauge "looks determined to check the highest end of a replacement, higher 91-93 range we expect will form in coming weeks," Westpac strategists wrote during a client note, adding that extended lockdowns in Europe have sapped confidence in an economic rebound.

"Meanwhile, the U.S. will have a powerful rebound in coming months amid a robust vaccine roll-out, stimulus payments, and economic reopenings," they said.

The index that measures the greenback's strength against a basket of peer currencies is up nearly 3% year-to-date, confounding widely held expectations among analysts for a decline.

Strategists at BCA Research said they believe the U.S. dollar is experiencing a "countertrend rally within a market ."

"Over the near-term, the dollar benefits from two supports. First, the U.S. growth will outperform because of generous economic policy and therefore the country’s lead in vaccinations. Second, the NASDAQ and other highflying global equities are correcting since February, creating some risk-off undertones that help the countercyclical greenback."

"However, the real rate of interest differentials will ultimately determine the currency’s cyclical outlook. The Fed’s commitment to maintaining an accommodative policy will cap upside to US real rates at the short-end of the curve. this may prevent a pointy appreciation within the dollar.

The euro hit a four-month low of $1.1812 after Germany extended a lockdown and urged its citizens to remain reception during the Easter holiday.

Worries over the pace of the pandemic recovery were heightened after a U.S. health agency said the AstraZeneca (NASDAQ: AZN) Plc vaccine may have included outdated information in its data.

The flight to safety received a further nudge when Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told lawmakers that future tax hikes are going to be needed to pay for infrastructure projects and other public investments.

Yellen was testifying to the House Financial Services Committee alongside Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who reiterated that an expected near-term spike in inflation is going to be transitory.

That helped tame U.S. Treasury yields, with the benchmark sinking below 1.6% on Wednesday for the primary time during a week, because it continued its retreat from a quite one-year high of 1.7540% touched last week.

Both Yellen and Powell also are scheduled to testify to the Senate Banking Panel on Wednesday.

Human rights sanctions on China imposed by us, Europe, and Britain, which prompted retaliatory sanctions from Beijing, are adding to plug concerns.

The safe-haven yen, which gained in Asian trade, weakened 0.1% by the beginning of trading in London. Australia's dollar - considered a liquid proxy for risk - weakened further on Wednesday.

The Aussie slipped to as low as $0.7582, A level not seen since Feb. 5.

The British pound weakened as far as $1.3675, also rock bottom since early February.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin gained 4% to $56,500, off a record high of $61,781.83.

Seasonal factors are likely exacerbating currency moves, as some investors lock in profits before the quarter-end and therefore the holidays of Easter and Passover, consistent with Masafumi Yamamoto, the chief currency strategist at Mizuho Securities.

"The main scenario for the market, that the worldwide economy is recovering from the pandemic shock, is intact," he said.

"We may even see more of a correction into the beginning of April, but then I expect a restarting of a risk-on trade," with commodity currencies of advanced economies benefitting most, he said.
 

HotForexsignal

Newbie
6 0
Forex Market News - Euro set for biggest monthly drop since mid-2019; yen shorts grow

The euro languished below $1.18 on Monday because the prospect of tougher coronavirus curbs in France and Germany weighed on the short-term outlook for the ECU economy.

The euro slipped 0.2% in London trading at $1.1774, nearing last week's four-and-a-half-month trough of $1.1762. On a monthly basis, it's down 2.3%, its biggest drop since July 2019.

Compounding the single currency woes is the widening rate of interest differentials between German and U.S. yields. The spread for 10-year debt widened to 200 basis points from 150 bps at the beginning of the year, boosting the dollar.

"In a nutshell, the U.S. economy is far stronger and miles ahead within the immunization game compared to Europe's and Japan's, and this ultimately translates into the Fed normalizing policy years before the ECB or the BoJ," said Marios Hadjikyriacos, a strategist at brokerage XM.

The euro's woes have worsened as Europe's faltering vaccination program runs into a wave of latest infections, whilst positioning data showed investors remain heavily long euros, a bearish sign for investors. and

"Much focus will remain on the virus situation in Europe and whether lockdowns can slow rising case numbers and also whether the slow pace of vaccinations can finally reach exit speed," ING economists said during a daily note.

The dollar held firm against other currencies as a small risk-off sentiment rippled through global markets, with U.S. stock futures in negative territory in quiet quarter-end rebalancing flows.

YEN SHORTS GROW

Against a basket of currencies, the dollar steadied at 92.810, slightly below a November 2020 high of 92.92 hits last week.

Weekly positioning data showed the broad trend of growing dollar bullishness remained live. Hedge funds cut their overall short dollar bets to their lowest levels since June 2020 while ramping up their bearish bets on the yen.

Short yen positions have grown in recent weeks with hedge funds building their net short bets to 33% of open interest, consistent with ING data.

Steadying stock markets offered some support for the yen, but falling bond yields and expectations of a worldwide economic rebound have rekindled short bets. The yen is among the worst-performing currencies thus far this quarter, down 6% loss the dollar.

Virus-driven caution also helped the dollar higher against the Australian and New Zealand dollars and sterling, and it rose against oil-linked currencies because the re-floating of the ship blocking the Suez Canal pushed crude prices down by about 1.5%.

The Aussie was last down 0.3% at $0.7621 on Monday and therefore the New Zealand dollar had dropped 0.3% to $0.6978. Sterling slipped 0.2% to $1.3767.
 

McQuant

Member
71 80
Forex News - Dollar hits four-month high as worries over European lockdowns, U.S. taxes sap risk appetite

The dollar hit a four-month high on Wednesday as concerns over a 3rd COVID-19 wave in Europe, potential U.S. tax hikes, and escalating tensions between the West and China sapped risk appetite.

The dollar index rose to a four-month top of 92.608 in early London trade, its highest since Nov. 23.

The gauge "looks determined to check the highest end of a replacement, higher 91-93 range we expect will form in coming weeks," Westpac strategists wrote during a client note, adding that extended lockdowns in Europe have sapped confidence in an economic rebound.

"Meanwhile, the U.S. will have a powerful rebound in coming months amid a robust vaccine roll-out, stimulus payments, and economic reopenings," they said.

The index that measures the greenback's strength against a basket of peer currencies is up nearly 3% year-to-date, confounding widely held expectations among analysts for a decline.

Strategists at BCA Research said they believe the U.S. dollar is experiencing a "countertrend rally within a market ."

"Over the near-term, the dollar benefits from two supports. First, the U.S. growth will outperform because of generous economic policy and therefore the country’s lead in vaccinations. Second, the NASDAQ and other highflying global equities are correcting since February, creating some risk-off undertones that help the countercyclical greenback."

"However, the real rate of interest differentials will ultimately determine the currency’s cyclical outlook. The Fed’s commitment to maintaining an accommodative policy will cap upside to US real rates at the short-end of the curve. this may prevent a pointy appreciation within the dollar.

The euro hit a four-month low of $1.1812 after Germany extended a lockdown and urged its citizens to remain reception during the Easter holiday.

Worries over the pace of the pandemic recovery were heightened after a U.S. health agency said the AstraZeneca (NASDAQ: AZN) Plc vaccine may have included outdated information in its data.

The flight to safety received a further nudge when Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told lawmakers that future tax hikes are going to be needed to pay for infrastructure projects and other public investments.

Yellen was testifying to the House Financial Services Committee alongside Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who reiterated that an expected near-term spike in inflation is going to be transitory.

That helped tame U.S. Treasury yields, with the benchmark sinking below 1.6% on Wednesday for the primary time during a week, because it continued its retreat from a quite one-year high of 1.7540% touched last week.

Both Yellen and Powell also are scheduled to testify to the Senate Banking Panel on Wednesday.

Human rights sanctions on China imposed by us, Europe, and Britain, which prompted retaliatory sanctions from Beijing, are adding to plug concerns.

The safe-haven yen, which gained in Asian trade, weakened 0.1% by the beginning of trading in London. Australia's dollar - considered a liquid proxy for risk - weakened further on Wednesday.

The Aussie slipped to as low as $0.7582, A level not seen since Feb. 5.

The British pound weakened as far as $1.3675, also rock bottom since early February.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin gained 4% to $56,500, off a record high of $61,781.83.

Seasonal factors are likely exacerbating currency moves, as some investors lock in profits before the quarter-end and therefore the holidays of Easter and Passover, consistent with Masafumi Yamamoto, the chief currency strategist at Mizuho Securities.

"The main scenario for the market, that the worldwide economy is recovering from the pandemic shock, is intact," he said.

"We may even see more of a correction into the beginning of April, but then I expect a restarting of a risk-on trade," with commodity currencies of advanced economies benefitting most, he said.
Like seriously?
FOREX-Dollar hits 4-month high as worries over European lockdowns, U.S. taxes sap risk appetite
What's the point of copy-pasting news from Reuters?
 
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Reactions: CavaliereVerde

McQuant

Member
71 80
Forex Market News - Euro set for biggest monthly drop since mid-2019; yen shorts grow

The euro languished below $1.18 on Monday because the prospect of tougher coronavirus curbs in France and Germany weighed on the short-term outlook for the ECU economy.

The euro slipped 0.2% in London trading at $1.1774, nearing last week's four-and-a-half-month trough of $1.1762. On a monthly basis, it's down 2.3%, its biggest drop since July 2019.

Compounding the single currency woes is the widening rate of interest differentials between German and U.S. yields. The spread for 10-year debt widened to 200 basis points from 150 bps at the beginning of the year, boosting the dollar.

"In a nutshell, the U.S. economy is far stronger and miles ahead within the immunization game compared to Europe's and Japan's, and this ultimately translates into the Fed normalizing policy years before the ECB or the BoJ," said Marios Hadjikyriacos, a strategist at brokerage XM.

The euro's woes have worsened as Europe's faltering vaccination program runs into a wave of latest infections, whilst positioning data showed investors remain heavily long euros, a bearish sign for investors. and

"Much focus will remain on the virus situation in Europe and whether lockdowns can slow rising case numbers and also whether the slow pace of vaccinations can finally reach exit speed," ING economists said during a daily note.

The dollar held firm against other currencies as a small risk-off sentiment rippled through global markets, with U.S. stock futures in negative territory in quiet quarter-end rebalancing flows.

YEN SHORTS GROW

Against a basket of currencies, the dollar steadied at 92.810, slightly below a November 2020 high of 92.92 hits last week.

Weekly positioning data showed the broad trend of growing dollar bullishness remained live. Hedge funds cut their overall short dollar bets to their lowest levels since June 2020 while ramping up their bearish bets on the yen.

Short yen positions have grown in recent weeks with hedge funds building their net short bets to 33% of open interest, consistent with ING data.

Steadying stock markets offered some support for the yen, but falling bond yields and expectations of a worldwide economic rebound have rekindled short bets. The yen is among the worst-performing currencies thus far this quarter, down 6% loss the dollar.

Virus-driven caution also helped the dollar higher against the Australian and New Zealand dollars and sterling, and it rose against oil-linked currencies because the re-floating of the ship blocking the Suez Canal pushed crude prices down by about 1.5%.

The Aussie was last down 0.3% at $0.7621 on Monday and therefore the New Zealand dollar had dropped 0.3% to $0.6978. Sterling slipped 0.2% to $1.3767.
FOREX-Euro set for biggest monthly drop since mid-2019 on economy fears
 

CavaliereVerde

Experienced member
1,548 1,992
@McQuant
Members posting this kind of content are 100% useless.
They are sent by broker to spread an impression of professionalism to onboard new customers.
There is an entire category for this useless stuff.
 
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Reactions: McQuant

CavaliereVerde

Experienced member
1,548 1,992
I don't have this kind of problems.
Analysts and chartists are just baits for noobs.
Useless hindsite trading.
 

HotForexsignal

Newbie
6 0
Forex Market News - USD/JPY set to lose the 109.00 threshold

The USD/JPY pair is struggling amid the dollar’s weakness and may fall below the 109.00 level.

Japanese trade balance posted a larger-than-anticipated surplus of ¥524.2 billion

“Japan published its February current account which posted a surplus of ¥2916.9 billion, largely surpassing the ¥1996 billion expected. The trade balance for a similar month improved to ¥524.2 billion from ¥-130.1 billion within the previous month. Also, March Consumer Confidence printed at 36.1, better than the previous 33.8. The Eco Watchers Survey for the present situation came in at 49, while the Outlook resulted in 49.8.”

“The US session will bring Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended April 2, foreseen at 680K from 719K previously and a speech from US Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell, because of participating during a discussion about the worldwide economy at a virtual International monetary fund Seminar.”

“The USD/JPY pair maintains a sour tone, with the danger skewed to the downside within the near-term. The pair bottomed for the day at 109.43, the extent to interrupt to check bulls’ determination around the 109.00 threshold.”
 

HotForexsignal

Newbie
6 0
Forex Market News -EUR/GBP to go towards the 0.8732 marks on an in-depth above the 0.8643/65 area


EUR/GBP has closed above key resistance at 0.8643/65 to finish a base and an in-depth above 0.8574 today would also see a bullish “reversal week” established to strengthen the likelihood for a deeper recovery to 0.8732 initially.

The risk moves higher with resistance seen at 0.8732/38

“Whilst we'd look to ascertain a weekly close above key resistance at 0.8643/65 our bias is for this to be achieved to ascertain a base established to strengthen a recovery theme. Additionally, an in-depth above 0.8574 today would also see a bullish ‘reversal week’ established to further reinforce a recovery story. we'd then search for a move to 0.8732 next, then the 38.2% retracement at 0.8761.”

“Big picture, we'd not rule out a pullback to the ‘neckline’ to the medium-term top at 0.8861.

“Support moves to 0.8659 initially, with an opportunity below 0.8526/21 now needed to ease the immediate upside bias for a retreat back to 0.8578, but with fresh buyers expected here for now.”
 

tomorton

Legendary member
8,399 1,338
@McQuant
Members posting this kind of content are 100% useless.
They are sent by broker to spread an impression of professionalism to onboard new customers.
There is an entire category for this useless stuff.
Hah ha ha! I love it! :)
 
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Reactions: CavaliereVerde
 
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