Forex Market Commentary By TitanFX

titanfx

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#16
NZDUSD Poised for Declines

Key Highlights
• New Zealand Dollar continued to weaken against most currencies, including the US Dollar.
• NZDUSD traded below 0.6680 and looks set for more declines in the near term.
• In New Zealand, the NZIER Business Confidence released by the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research came in at 5%, compared with the last 23%.

NZIER Business Confidence
Earlier during the Asian session, the NZIER Business Confidence, which shows the business outlook in New Zealand was released by the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research. The outcome was on the lower side when compared with the last reading of 23%, as the NZIER Business Confidence posted a rise of 5%. The headline of the report published was that the “latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion shows the New Zealand economy losing momentum”. It shows that the outcome was not good enough to help the New Zealand Dollar.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis
The NZDUSD pair formed a contracting triangle on the hourly chart, which was broken recently. There was a failure noted around the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.6733 high to 0.6648 low. Moreover, the triangle resistance trend line acted as a catalyst for a down-move. The most critical point is that the pair is well below the 100 and 200 simple moving average, suggesting the amount of bearish pressure on NZDUSD.



On the downside, the last low of 0.6648 is a support area. If there is a break below the mentioned area, a move towards 0.6600 is possible. The pair might remain under the bearish pressure, as long as it is below the 100 hourly MA.
On the upside, the broken triangle may also act as a resistance for buyers moving ahead.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'
 

titanfx

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#17
Aussie Dollar Primed for Gains against Yen

Key Highlights
• Aussie Dollar traded higher versus the Japanese Yen, and looks set for more gains in the near term.
• Australian National Australia Bank Business Confidence released during the Asian session came in at 10, up from the previous revised reading of 8.
• Australian NAB Business conditions were also up from the last revised reading of 6 to 11 in June 2015.

Australian National Australia Bank Business Confidence
There was a major release in Australia, as the National Australia Bank Business Confidence, which is a survey of the current business condition in Australia was published. The outcome was on the higher side, as the business confidence increased from 8 to 10 in June. The previous reading was also revised up from 7 to 8.

AUDJPY Technical Analysis
The Aussie Dollar was seen gaining traction against the Japanese Yen, as the AUDJPY pair after declining towards 91.20 support area moved back higher. There is a contracting triangle pattern formed on the hourly chart, which is acting as a catalyst for more upsides. The best part is the fact that the pair is above the 100 hourly simple moving average.



If buyers manage to take it above the 200 SMA, and the triangle resistance area, then it might open the doors for a move towards the last swing high of 92.40. The hourly RSI is above the 50 level, suggesting that buyers are in control, and may attempt to take the pair higher in the near term.

On the downside, the triangle support area holds the key for more losses moving ahead.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'
 

titanfx

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#18
AUDUSD Rebounds after Dipping Towards 0.7260

Key Highlights
• Aussie Dollar looks like found support around 0.7260 and positioning for more gains moving ahead.
• Australian trade balance released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics posted a deficit of -2,933M in June 2015, whereas the market was expecting -3,100M.
• Australian Retail Sales also posted a better than expected reading, as it rose by 0.7% in June 2015, compared with the preceding month.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis
The AUDUSD recently traded higher after the economic releases in Australia. There was a bearish trend line on the hourly chart, which was broken to set the pair for more gains. However, the upside found resistance around a crucial area, as the 100 hourly simple moving average along with the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 0.7365 high to 0.7258 low acted as a resistance.



Moving ahead, if the pair corrects lower from here, it might find support around the broken triangle area. On the upside, buyers need to clear the 100 and 200 hourly SMA to clear the way for more gains.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'
 

titanfx

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#19
NZDUSD – New Zealand Dollar Trend Overwhelmingly Negative

Key Highlights
• New Zealand Dollar was seen struggling against the US Dollar recently, as the latter one gained a lot of traction during the past couple of sessions.
• There was a major release lined up today, as the New Zealand Employment Change released by the Statistics New Zealand posted a reading of 0.3% in Q2, 2015 which was lower than the forecast.
• New Zealand Unemployment Rate remained stable at 5.9% just as the market expected.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis
The New Zealand Dollar after completing a correction around 0.6700 against the US Dollar started to move back lower. There is a monster bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the NZDUSD pair, which is acting as a barrier for the pair.



The most important point is the fact that the 100 hourly simple moving average is positioned with the highlighted trend line, which increases the significance of the resistance. An initial hurdle on the upside can be around the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last drop from 0.6651 high to 0.6517 low.

On the downside, a break below the last low of 0.6517 could ignite a downside reaction, taking it towards the 0.6500 handle.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'
 

titanfx

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#20
USDJPY Poised For Break Higher

Key Highlights
• US Dollar continued to rocket higher against the Japanese Yen, as the USDJPY pair traded to a new weekly high above 125.20.
• Japanese Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index released by the Bank of Japan registered a decline of 0.2% in July 2015 whereas the market was expecting -0.1%.
• In terms of the yearly change, the Japanese Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index declined 3%.
• USDJPY has formed a breakout structure calling for more gains in the near term.

USDJPY Technical Analysis
The US dollar continued to follow a nice bullish trend against the Japanese Yen, as there was a nice uptrend witnessed. The USDJPY pair traded higher and even managed to clear the 125.00 resistance area. There is an ascending channel pattern formed on the hourly chart, which is acting as a catalyst for a move higher. There is a chance of the pair breaking higher in the near term, as the hourly RSI is well positioned above the 50 level.



On the downside, an initial support can be seen around the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last wave from the 124.71 low to 125.23 high. Any further losses might call for a test of the channel support area.

Overall, there are many signs for a move higher in USDJPY, compared with losses in the short term.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'
 

titanfx

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#21
Euro Could Trade Higher versus Japanese Yen

Key Highlights
• Euro traded higher against the Japanese Yen, but it looks like it if finding resistance around 138.80.
• Euro Zone Consumer Price Index will be released by Eurostat today, which is expected to post a decline of 0.6% in July 2015.
• In New Zealand, the Retail Sales report released by the Statistics New Zealand registered an increase of 0.1% in the second quarter, compared with the preceding quarter.

EURJPY Technical Analysis
The Euro traded higher recently and made one more attempt to clear the 138.80 resistance area against the Japanese Yen. However, the EURJPY pair failed once again, and this makes it more than 3 attempts to clear the stated resistance area. There was a bullish trend line formed which was broken earlier, and now acting as a resistance for the pair.



Overall, there is a monster resistance formed around 138.80, which poses a risk for a break lower in the near term. The pair needs to settle above 139.00 if it has to trade higher moving ahead. On the downside, an initial support can be seen around 50% fib level of the wave from the 138.07 low.

Euro Zone CPI
Today, the Euro Zone Consumer Price index, which captures the changes in the price of goods and services will be released by Eurostat. The forecast is lined up for a 0.6% decline in July 2015, compared with the preceding month. In terms of the yearly change, it is expected to increase by 0.2%. Any disappointment might cause a downside reaction in the near term in the Euro.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'
 

titanfx

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#22
USDCAD – Crucial Break Noted

Key Highlights
• US Dollar managed to pop higher against the Canadian Dollar, and also managed to clear a major resistance area.
• US Empire State Manufacturing Survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York declined to -14.92, whereas the market was expecting it to come in at 5 in August 2015.
• Canadian investment in foreign securities released by the Statistics Canada came in at $8.57B, more than the last reading of $5.73B (revised).
• Canadian International Securities $8.51B, more than the market expected.

USDCAD Technical Analysis
The US Dollar managed to climb higher against the Canadian Dollar today, and also cleared a crucial barrier on the upside. There was a bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the USDCAD pair. Buyers managed to break it, and it looks like the pair managed to settle above it.



The most important point is that the pair settled above the 100 and 200 simple moving average, which could ignite more gains in the near term. We need to see how the USDCAD pair reacts, and whether it can capitalize on the recent break or not.

On the upside, buyers might eye a move towards the 1.3200 area where sellers could take a stand. On the downside, the 200 hourly SMA may perhaps act as a support in the near term.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'
 

titanfx

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#23
USDJPY Crash and Recovery

Key Highlights
• The Forex market turmoil continued, as the Japanese Yen gained across the board.
• The carnage in global stocks and commodities witnessed throughout the day, as investors were seen nervous.
• A lot of volatility was witnessed in most major pairs like EURUSD, NZDUSD and USDJPY.
• USDJPY crashed to trade as low as 116.10 before recovering sharply by more than 250 pips.
• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI), released by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago rose from the last revised reading of -0.07 to 0.34 in July 2015.

USDJPY Technical Analysis
The US dollar was crushed today especially against the Japanese Yen. There was more than 400 pips declines in the USDJPY pair, as the pair traded lower close to the 116.00 support area. It is where buyers stepped in to prevent any additional losses.



There is a solid rejection pattern forming on the hourly chart of the USDJPY pair. However, the decline in USDJPY speaks volume about the current market condition. There is a bearish trend line on the hourly chart, which could act as a resistance if the pair moves higher from the current levels.

Overall, investors need to cautious as there can be increase in the swing moves in the near term.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)
Earlier during the NY session, the US saw an economic release as the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI), which is a monthly index designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure was reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. The market not expecting any major rise in the index, but the result was above the forecast as the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) climbed in July 2015 from the last revised reading of -0.07 to 0.34.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'
 

titanfx

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#24
AUDJPY – 85.00-40 Is Crucial Juncture for Aussie Dollar

Key Highlights
• Aussie Dollar after trading lower towards 83.60 against the Japanese Yen managed to gain buyers, and currently making an attempt to correct higher.
• There is a major resistance area formed around 85.00-40 where sellers might step in.
• Australian Retail Sales released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics decreased by 0.1% in July 2015, compared with the expectation of a 0.4% rise.
• Australian trade balance registered a trade deficit of -2,460M in July 2015, less than the forecast of -3,100M.

AUDJPY Technical Analysis
The Aussie Dollar making a nice attempt to trade higher against the Japanese Yen, but there are many hurdles aligned on the upside for the AUDJPY pair. There are a couple of bearish trend lines formed on the hourly chart, which are waiting to act as a barrier if the pair moves higher from the current levels.



Moreover, the 50% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 86.45 high to 83.62 low is also around the trend line resistance area. There is an ascending channel formed on the hourly chart, which is acting as a catalyst for an upside move.

As long as the pair is trading inside the highlighted channel, there are chances of it trading higher. A break below it could ignite the downside pressure once again.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'
 

titanfx

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#26
NZDUSD Crushed After RBNZ Cuts Rate

Key Highlights
• New Zealand Dollar was crushed earlier during the Asian session against most major currencies.
• RBNZ Interest Rate Decision was the reason, as the central bank reduced the interest rates from 3% to 2.75% as expected.
• New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales as reported by Statistics New Zealand posted an increase of 4.2% in August 2015, compared to August 2014.
• Chinese Consumer Price Index is released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China increased by 05% in August 2015, more than the forecast of 0.4%.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis
The New Zealand Dollar moved lower sharply against the US Dollar, and fell by more than 100 pips. The NZDUSD pair broke a couple of important support area including the 100 simple moving average and a bullish trend line on the hourly chart.



The pair traded as low as 0.6255, and currently making an attempt to correct higher. However, it might find resistance around the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 0.6424 high to 0.6255 low which is aligned with the 100 hourly SMA.

On the downside, an initial support area can be around the last low 0.6255. A break below it could take the pair towards the 0.6220 support area.

RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
Earlier today, there were many important releases lined up, including the RBNZ Interest Rate Decision. The central bank reduced the interest rates from 3% to 2.75%, which was expected by the market. This was definitely negative for the Kiwi dollar and ignited a downside move in the NZDUSD pair.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'
 

titanfx

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#27
NZDUSD Hesitates; Trade Near a Critical Juncture

Key Highlights
• New Zealand Dollar traded lower recently against the US Dollar, but found support near 0.6235.
• The NZDUSD pair is currently trading near a major resistance area, which holds the key for more gains.
• New Zealand Trade Balance released by the Statistics New Zealand posted a trade deficit of $-1,035M in August, compared with the forecast of $-850M.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis
As mentioned earlier, there was a downside reaction in NZDUSD taking it towards the 0.6230-40 support area where buyers just managed to prevent the downside. The pair is currently trading higher, and facing hurdle near a couple of bearish trend lines on the hourly chart.



Moreover, the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 0.6455 high to 0.6234 low is also around the current trading levels. A break and close above the same might take the pair towards the 38.2% Fib level.

On the downside, the most important support is near the last low at 0.6235. A break below it could take the pair towards the all-important 0.6200.

New Zealand Trade Balance
Earlier during the Asian session, the New Zealand Trade Balance, which is a measure of balance amount between import and export was released by the Statistics New Zealand. The market was a trade deficit of $-850M in August 2015, compared with the preceding month. However, the outcome was on the lower side, as the trade deficit came in at $-1,035M.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'
 

titanfx

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#28
USDCHF – Break Near?

Key Highlights
• US Dollar is slowly moving higher against the Swiss Franc and looks set for a break in the near term.
• There is a bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart, which might act as a catalyst.
• Chinese official non-manufacturing PMI, released by China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) posted a reading of 53.4 in September, unchanged from the last reading.

USDCHF Technical Analysis
The US Dollar after trading close to the 0.9680 support area against the Swiss Franc managed to recover some ground. There was an upside move noted, and there is a bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart, acting as a catalyst for more gains.



However, there is also a bearish sign to note, as the USDCHF pair is below the 100 and 200 hourly simple moving averages. So, if the pair breaks the trend line and support area then we might witness a move lower may be towards the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.9686 low.

On the upside, buyers need to take the pair above the 100 MA. If they manage to do so, then more gains are possible in the near term.

Chinese Non-Manufacturing PMI
Earlier during the Asian session, China saw a couple of important economic releases. First, the official non-manufacturing PMI, which is based on a survey of about 1,200 companies covering 27 industries including construction, transport and telecommunications was reported by China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP). The outcome was in line with the forecast, as the official non-manufacturing PMI came at 53.4 in September 2015, unchanged from the last reading.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'
 

titanfx

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#29
GBPUSD – Double Top or Break Higher?

Key Highlights
• There was a solid US Dollar weakness noted across all the major pairs, including GBPUSD.
• The GBPUSD pair moved higher, but it is currently facing a major resistance around 1.5240.
• UK British Retail Consortium (BRC) Shop Price Index posted a decline of 1.9% in September 2015, compared with the last reading of -1.4%.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis
As mentioned there was a nice upside reaction in the GBPUSD pair, taking it above the 1.5200 resistance area. However, the pair is currently facing a monster resistance around the previous swing high of 1.5240.

There are two scenarios possible:
1. First, the pair breaking above the resistance area and trading towards the 1.5300 area. Buyers need to step in for this one and outpace sellers.
2. The GBPUSD pair might fail to break above 1.5240, and moves down. In that situation, there will be a chance of it creating a double top pattern, which might be a bearish call.



Overall, we can say that the GBPUSD pair is trading near a major resistance area. Traders need to wait for a few hours to see which way the price moves. A break above 1.5240 may be a bullish call.

UK British Retail Consortium (BRC) Shop Price Index
Earlier during the Asian session, the UK British Retail Consortium (BRC) Shop Price Index, which helps in calculating the price changes in the popular retail outlets in the UK was published. The outcome was mixed, as there was a decline noted of 1.9% in September 2015, compared with the preceding month.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'
 

titanfx

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#30
GBPCHF Next Leg Lower Underway?

Key Highlights
• British Pound managed to gain bids against the Swiss Franc, which as a result took the GBPCHF pair higher.
• A bearish trend line on the hourly chart was broken by buyers to set the pace for more upsides.
• In Australia, the National Australia Bank Business Confidence posted a decline from the last reading of 4 to 0 in Q2 2015.

GBPCHF Technical Analysis
The British Pound climbed higher against the Swiss Franc, and traded towards the 1.4850 resistance area. There was a bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart, which was breached during the upside drift.

Currently, the pair is correcting lower and finding buyers around the 50% Fib retracement level of the last leg from the 1.4700 low to 1.4850 high. In short, the pair found support near the broken trend line sitting with the 100 hourly simple moving average.



There is also a bullish trend line on the hourly chart, which is likely to provide support to the GBPCHF pair if it continues to move lower from the current levels. On the upside, a break above the last high is required for buyers to take the pair further higher. The hourly RSI is above the 50 level, which is a positive sign for buyers.

UK Retail Sales
Today an important release is lined up in the UK, as the Retail Sales, which measures the total receipts of retail stores will be reported by the National Statistics. The forecast is lined up for an increase of 0.4% in September 2015, compared with the preceding month.

If the outcome is positive, it might lift the market sentiment and help the GBPUSD and GBPCHF pair moving ahead.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'