Forex Analysis and Forecast by J. Halprid

[GFSignals]

October 6, 2009

The main event expected by Forex signals providers and almost all economists on Monaday was the meeting of Finance Ministers of Big 7 in Istanbul. The participants of the meeting told that the perspectives of improving of the economical situation were very fragile and the level of unemployment was quite high. And few words had been said about the American currency and importance of its recovery and stability, because the big fall of USD can easily crush the world economy down.

In spite of that USD continued falling down against its all main rivals, except the British pound. At first GBP/USD rose to the level of 1.6000, but then returned back to 1.5933. EUR pushed USD down to 1.4647. At the same time USD/JPY fell to the minimum point of 89.28, but then managed to move back to about 89.50. USD/CHF finished the trading day at 1.0319.

On Tuesday the most important news is to come from the British Isles: the data on Industrial Production and Manufacture production, which can influence the market and Forex signals very strong. At the same time a piece of news will be also heard from the United States: API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories, API U.S. Gasoline Inventories and API U.S. Distillate Inventory.

Due to that EUR/USD might rise up to 1.4730 but then to roll back to about 1.46 under the pressure of news from the USA. At the same time GBP can suppress USD and move back to yesterday’s maximum of about 1.6000 with the help of news, which Forex signals providers expect to be positive for the British currency. The release of Swiss CPI can be a sign to CHF to push USD down, which will bring USD/CHF to about 1.0250 and even lower. USD/JPY is likely to remain between 89.00 and 90.00, which will make some Forex signals providers to leave that currency pair for today because of no possibilities for large profits.

 

[GFSignals]

One of the main news important for Forex signals providers yesterday, October 6, 2009 was the increase of interest rate by Reserve Bank of Australia from 3.0% to 3.25%. So, Australia was the first country of Big 20 to increase interest rates from the beginning of the economical crisis. That is the sign of improvement and stabilization of Australian economics – in the first part of the year the GDP increased to 1%. It should be taken into consideration, that Central banks of other countries may follow this example and increase their interest rates as well.

At the same time the fall of USD continued. For example, EUR/USD rose for 100 pips during the first part of the trading day – the day’s maximum was 1.4761, and by the end of the day managed to roll down only to 1.4720. CHF had begun new supression of the American currency and pushed the bucks down – USD/CHF fell to 1.0235, but then recovered to 1.0270. USD/JPY was to reach another 2-day’s minimum – 88.60, having started the trading day at 89.60 and finished it at 88.80.

The only currecny to fall against USD was the British pound. At first it rose up and GBP/USD was again at the level of 1.6000, but then it didn’t managed to continue growing and fell back to 1.5920.

The main news to be taken into consideration on Wednesday, October 7, 2009 is of course the changes of GDP in EU. But the changes in Factory Orders in Germany, the data on USA energetics and Japanese Current Account Total are also to be taken view of.

Talking about the rages of the main currency pairs it can be admitted, that EUR/USD is finally likely to fall down a bit and reach the level of 1.4650, USD/CHF can rise a little bit to the level of 1.0300, USD/JPY is considered to remain between 88.00 and 89.00, but the GBP/USD can roll down to 1.5850 at first, but then to recover to 1.5950.

 

[GFSignals]

OCTOBER 8, 2009

On Wednesday, October 7, 2009 quite a difficult situation was at the market: the American currency was under the pressure of Mass-media, traders and Forex signals providers were waiting for the actions of the Central Banks’ heads of the best economically-developed countries, and the basic rivals of USD, that seemed to be getting stronger, turned out to fall down.

“The Independent’s” report about the possible refusal from USD in pricing oil was to push bucks down. But somehow EUR/USD fell down to the day’s minimum of 1.4648. That was the result of the negative news, coming form Eurozone – annual GDP reduced to 4.8. The level of uneployment is Switzerland grew for 0.1% to 3.9%. That was a stimulus for USD/CHF to rise up to 1.0358 and then set up at 1.0330. At the same time USD/JPY at first even reached 87.90, but then, as it had been predicted, returned to 88.50.GBP/USD was moving in the channel of 1.5920-1.5860 the most time, but at first it fell down to the day’s minimum of 1.5857 and then managed to rise to 1.5971.

Due to the latest events of the Forex market, the main news to be taken into consideration is, of course, the announcement of Interest Rates by British Central Bank and the Central Bank of Europe. It’s expected that the rates will remain at the same level – 0.5 and 1.0% correspondingly. But the changes of Interest Rate by The Central Bank of Australia may force the Banks of other countries to change them as well.

So, it’s necessary to say, that for Thursday, October 8, 2009 the support for EUR/USD will be 1.4550 and resistance – 1.4700. GBP/USD is likely to break the level of 1.6000 and set right there. USD/CHF might rise even to the level of 1.0450 with the support at 1.0300. USD/JPY is expected to be trading between 88.00 and 89.00.:clap:

 

[GFSignals]

OCTOBER 9, 2009

On Thursday, October 8, every Forex trader was waiting for the announcement of interest rates by ECB and BCB. The rates remained the same, but Mr. Trichet said that economics of Eurozone shows the signs of stabilization, but the recovery might be quite irregular. Besides that he admitted, that it’s quite important for the US government to keep USD strong and not to allow the currency to fall down very low.

So, having opened at 1.4680, EUR/USD rose up and reached the maximum of 1.4816. By the end of the day the pair set at 1.4790. At the same time GBP/USD had broken the level of 1.6000 and continued moving up to the maximum - 1.6118. But then the pair fell a little back to 1.6070. USD/CHF was mostly moving down and even managed to reach the day’s minimum – 1.0229 and only by the end of trading day recovered to 1.0250. USD/JPY was trading between 88.15 and 88.70, having ebede the trading day at 88.40.

The main Forex news for today, Friday 9, 2009, are to come form Greta Britrain and the USA.The British economical startistics will be completed by the PPI Input NSA and PPI Output n.s.a. data and info on Visible Trade Balance GBP. According to the prediction all the data is to show negatoive dynamics. By the way, the data on Trade Balance will be also released in the USA, which can have an influence on actions of for Forex signals providers and turn USD up. And the news on employment rate in Canada can be also very interesting.

Due to that, the main target for EUR/USD can be defined as 1.4700 with the possible resistance at 1,4850. GBP/USD might roll down to 1.5950 and remain to be trading at this level. At the same time USD/CHF is expected to stay at the level of about 1.0300. USD/JPY is likely to return to 89.00 and even go higher.

 

[GFSignals]

OCTOBER 13, 2009

On Monday, October 12, 2009, trading was not very active because of celebrations of different holidays in different parts of the world: Thanksgiving Day in Canada, Columbus Day in the USA and Physical education Day in Japan. And there was no a lot of important news, which kept traders and Forex signals providers quite calm.

But the development of the situation on the market was quite interesting. USD was expected to continue recovery against Euro, but it fell down again. So, EUR/USD at first reached the minimum of 1.4675 but then went to the max level of 1.4813 and set at about 1.4780. Due to that some Forex signals systems developers expect the continuation of Euro’s rise.

At the same time USD suppressed its other rivals very seriously. For example, GBP/USD at first tried to go upward to 1.5881, but then rolled down to the day’s minimum of 1.5727 very fast. USD/CHF showed just the same dynamics. At first the pair tried to set at the level of 1.0350, but then fell down for about 100 pips and after a bit of correction finished the trading day at 1.0265. USD/JPY, vice versa, was to rise up for 100 pips and got to the point of 90.45. The trading day was finished at 89.90, which was another sign for Forex signals providers to buy dollar again.

On Tuesday, October 13, 2009 Forex signals providers expect more news than before: CPI and RPI from Britain, German ZEW Survey and, of course, New Housing Price Index in Canada. So, EUR/USD is expected to roll down to the level of about 1.4700 and probably set there. GBP/JPY might be trading around 1.5750, but it may rise up to 1.5900 as well. USD/JPY is expected to move to the point of 89.00, but not to rise more than 90.50. The rivalry of US Dollar and The Swiss currency might lead the pair to the level of 1.0200 with the resistance level of 1.0350.

 

[GFSignals]

October 15, 2009

On Wednesday, October 14, 2009 USD didn’t manage to rise and continued falling down against it main rivals. That was the result of release of the economical statistics from the USA and positive data from both Eurozone and Asia. And the quotes of American stocks rose up yesterday, which had also a negative influence on USD.

Due to that, EUR/USD has set the new maximum of the year, which is 1.4945 now. But traders and Forex signals providers still continue buying Euro, which will make it even stronger. The British pound has finally started recovery and suppressed USD. GBP/USD reached the maximum of 1.6020, but the rolled down a bit and finished the trading day at 1.5965. USD/CHF was to rise at first and set at about 1.0226. But a few moments later the fall down began and the minimum of the month - 1.0128 was reached. The fall of USD/JPY was also quite fast. Having started the day at 89.90 the quotes moved downward for 100 pips and set at 88.81. Only by the end of the trading day USD was to rise up a bit and the price became 89.40.

On Thursday, October 15, 2009, the main news are to come from the USA: the info on Initial Jobless Claims, Empire Manufacturing, DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories and Consumer Price Index will be released. The data on Manufacturing Sales will be announced in Canada and changes of CPI will come from Eurozone.

Due to that the next target for EUR/USD is expected to be 1.5000 with the probable support at 1.4850. GBP/USD is to break the level of 1.6100 and to set at about 1.6150. USD/CHF is likely to fall down 1.0100, but not to rise higher than 1.0250. USD/JP is expected to continue moving down to the new resistance level of 88.50.

 

[GFSignals]

October 16, 2009

On Thursday, October 15, 2009, the situation on the market developed quite intensively and Forex signals providers were very active. At first EUR/USD reached the day’s maximum of 1.4967, but then began to fall down and rolled back to 1.4842, having lost more than 100 pips. That was the result of relaxation on American stock exchanges. But Euro managed not recover very fast and end the trading day at 1.4950.

But the most interesting things were happening with GBP/USD. The pair started moving upward at 1.5980 and then had broken through 3(!) very important levels – 1.6000, 1.6100, 1.6250. This was the result of negative data from the USA and the decision of BCB not to let the British currency fall low against USD, which is falling down against all rival-currencies. That couldn’t be missed by traders and Forex signals systems developers.

USD/CHF began the trading day with testing the level of 1.0120, but after that USD went up quite fast. Having reached 1.0196 the price fell down and set at about 1.0145. USD/JPY was to rise from 89.25 to 90.77 (more than 150 pips), but then a correction, expected by Forex signals providers, made the price go to 90.50.

The main news to be taken into consideration by traders and Forex signals providers on Friday, October 16, 2009, are to come from the USA: Net Long-term TIC Flows, data on Industrial Production and University of Michigan Confidence.

Speaking about price rages it could be admitted, that very fast fall of USD can lead to unpredictable stabilization efforts by the leaders of Central Banks, which can be quite a surprise for Forex signals providers and traders at all. So, EUR/USD is likely to continue rising to 1.5000, USD/CHF is expected to remain between 1.0100-1.0200; USD/JPY might be trading at about 89.50. And GBP/USD may fall down to 1.6230 as quickly, as it rose up.

 

[GFSignals]

October 20, 2009

The beginning of the week turned out to be the continuation of the disaster for the American currency. Even Forex signals providers hadn’t expected such fall. EUR/USD at first seemed to fall down to 1.4827, but during the American session gained more than 100 pips and moved up to 1.4980. GBP/USD went down to the support level of 1.6250, but the furious rise-up made the pair break through 1.6400 and finish the trading day there. At the same time USD/CHF reached 1.0101, which also is a good sign for Forex signals providers to sell USD.

On Tuesday, October 20, 2009 the main news to be paid attention by Forex signals providers are M4 Money Supply in Britain, data on Canadian Wholesale Sales and Bank of Canada Rate, which is extremely important at the moment for all traders. But another piece of news is to come from the USA: Housing Starts, Building Permits and API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories.

Forex signals providers and traders expect the pressure on USD to remain the same. The main target for EUR/USD is 1.5000, after breaking which the price can continue moving upward, but can be brought down by some decisions of the heads of Central Banks. GBP/USD will possibly be going up in order to break through 1. 6500. USD/CHF is likely to set at the level of 1.0100 and even to fall down to 1.0000.

 

[GFSignals]

October 21, 2009

On Monday, October 19, 2009 the fast fall down of USD allowed EURUSD to reach the 14-months’ maximum of 1.4993. GBP/USD moved up to 1.6487 and USD/CHF set the new 14-month minimum of 1.0081. But on Tuesday the situation changed. Negative dynamics, shown by the American stock exchanges, made investors and Forex signals providers to buy USD and sell other risky currencies. As the result EUR/USD managed to reach the minimum level of 1.4880, GBP/USD fell down to 1,6327, USD/CHF rose up to 1.0167 and USD/JPY set at the level of 91.06.

In spite of Tuesday’s events, the American currency still remains under the pressure. But the possibilities for USD growing are quite high, because the entire Euro zone is interested in strong bucks. At the same time a lot of analysts and Forex signals providers expect the continuation of dollar’s falling down. The main thing to be paid attention to is the publication of Fed\'s Beige Book in the USA and the Release of Bank of England’s Decision on Minutes of Interest Rate.
:whistling
The support of EUR/USD is situated at 1.4870, which can be reached by the end of the trading day. But some Forex signals providers predict that the rise up to 1.4980 is also possible. The British pound is likely to set at about 1.6450 (with the support of 1.6300) and USD/CHF might get closer to 1.0080.

 

[GFSignals]

October 22, 2009

On Wednesday, October 21, 2009, the situation on the market developed very quickly. After the British Central Bank decided to leave the Interest rate without changes, EUR and GBP continued suppressing USD. GBP/USD moved up to 1.6500 and was rising more and more. With the beginning of the American session USD has reached new minimum levels because of the positive data, having come from the United States. Due to that EUR/USD has broken through the psychological level of 1.5000, GBP/USD rose higher than 1.6600 and USD/CHF fell down to 1.0050.

The publication of Fed\'s Beige Book in the USA made EUR/USD set the maximum of 1.5045, GBP/USD – 1.6635, USD/CHF – 1.0035. Due to the data from the book, the economics of the United States recovers very slowly, and the improvements are very little.

On Thursday, October 22, 2009, all Forex signals providers and traders are to take into consideration the news on Retail Sales coming from Britain. The predictions tell that the info will be positive and BGP will continue suppress its American rival. In that case GBP/USD might set at about 1.6750. But if the data is negative, the pair may fall to the support level of 1.6500.

At the same time EUR/USD may fall down. The breakout through the level of 1.5000 may be the sign for the investors to buy the American currency. At the moment the main support for EUR/USD is situated at 1.4900, but the price can reach it by the end of the trading day. At this rate all Forex signals providers are to pay attention to the following news: ECB Euro-Zone Current Account, Initial Jobless Claims and House Price Index from the United States.

 

[GFSignals]

October 23, 2009

Yesterday the American currency showed the first signs of recovery in the first part of the trading day. But the main reason for that was not the good news from USA, but bad one from Eurozone and the Great Britain. The British retail sales remained the same (the minimum increase of 0.5% was predicted) against all predictions, which pushed GBP/USD to1.6485. The info from Europe wasn’t good too: ECB Euro-Zone Current Account SA showed quite negative dynamics (-1.3 billion Euro), which was the reason for EUR/USD to fall down to 1.4942. At the same time Japanese index Nikkei opened with a gap down, just like all the European indices did few hour later. That was somehow good for USD and made the bucks stronger.

But the second part of the trading day turned everything upside down. After the negative news from the USA, the rivals of USD started to recover very fast. And by the end of the day they not only completely recovered their positions, but even managed to push bucks down again. Just look: EUR/USD finished trading day at 1.5037, GBP/USD – 1.6630, USD/CHF – 1.0039.

The main news for Forex signals providers to take into consideration on Friday, October 23, 2009, are: tha data on IFO - Business Climate in Germany, the info on changes in British GDP, and Existing Home Sales in the United States. Due to the predictions, the recovery of USD may be observed today, because all the news can turn out to be positive for the American currency.

EUR/USD is likely to reach 1.4950 with the resistance level of 1.5090, GBP/USD might continue going upwards and set at about 1.6750. USD/CHF can reach the psychological level of 1.0000 with the support of 1.0120. And USD/JPY will be trading between 91.00 – 92.00.

 

[GFSignals]

October 26, 2009

The previous week was marked by continuation of USD’s fall down. For example, EUR/USD has broken through very important psychological level of 1.5000 and finished trading week at 1.5007. GBP/USD was literally thrown down to 1.6300 by the release of data on British GDP. The reduce of 0.4% instead of 0.2% growth, that had been predicted, made the British pound fall. So, at the end of the trading week GBP/USD stopped at 1.6300 – just about the price at the beginning of the week.:clap:

Really, the weak position of USD is very good for the American administration, but extremely dangerous for European economy. On Tuesday, October 20, 2009, Henri Guaino declared, that “Euro costing 1.50 USD is the disaster for the European economy and the industrial sector”. But taking into consideration the importance of weak US Dollar for the USA, it can be admitted, that the continuation of buck’s fall down is likely continue that week.

Due to that the main news for Forex signals providers to take into consideration are: the data on Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, Dallas Fed Manufacture Activity, Consumer Confidence and Richmond Fed Manufacture Index in the USA; the release of Nat\'wide index in Great Britain, the info on unemployment in Germany and the European Union. But the attention of traders should be also drawn to USA GDP changes, data on Retail Sales in Germany and British M4 Money Supply. At the same time the American news releases on the topic of Initial jobless claims and New Home Sales can also turn the situation on the market upside down.:-0

Taking into consideration the pressure, which USD is under at the moment, it can be said that the main currency pairs will be trading between the following levels: the possible target for EUR/USD is 1.5150 with the support at 1.4900, GBP/USD is likely to recover and to set at about 1.6600, USD/CHF might remain at about 1.0000 and USD/JPY may grow up to 93.00.:whistling

 

[GFSignals]

October 27, 2009

Monday, October 26, 2009, was marked by USD’s trying to push its main rivals down. And the most efforts were quite successful. USD began fast recovery during the American session – the investors began to risk more, the stock exchange indices fell down and claims of FRS about possible changes in credit policy made the American currency rise up quickly. EUR/USD fell down to 1.4850, USD/CHF went up to 1.0200 (150 pips growth!) and USD/JPY finished the trading day at 92.20. Only GBP/USD was trading about 1.6300 without big rises and falls.:smart:

On Tuesday some bit of correction on the main currency pairs can be expected by Forex signals providers and traders. The news from USA is to show positive dynamics, which will be good for USD. EUR/USD will possibly do some correction and remain at the level of about 1.4840. But at the same time GBP/USD is likely to continue growing to 1.6400 in order to reach the target of 1.66 in the future.:!:

 

[GFSignals]

October 28, 2009

The beginning of the trading day on Tuesday was marked by EUR/USD reaching the day’s maximum – 1.4926 and GBP/USD – 1.6437. The British pound was pushed up by the negative changes in Britain’s GDP, released on Friday. That made some Forex signals providers sure, that the USD’s rivals will continue rising up. But then bucks started to go up quite quickly, because of the release of another portion of negative data from USA. As the result, EUR/USD managed to fall down to 1.4769, GBP/USD reached the trading day’s minimum of 1.6310 and USD/CHF rose up to 1.0228. But against Japanese Yen, vice versa, the American currency became weaker – USD/JPY fell to 91.68.

Such situation on the market can be the first sign of the beginning of USD’s recovery. The investors, traders and Forex signals providers:smart: don’t buy risky currencies and are more concentrated on making investments in USD, which is considered to be safe at the moment. Paying attention to the news it could be admitted that the economic data from the USA is negative, in spite all the predictions. That’s another reason for USD to recover.

On Wednesday, October 28, 2009, the main news to be taken into consideration by professional traders and Forex signals developers are Nat\'wide House prices in Great Britain and American data on Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales. Taking into consideration the actual predictions and expectations of Forex signals providers it could be said, that EUR/USD is likely to be falling down to 1.4730 (the resistance level – 1.4950),:clap::clap: GBP/USD will try to reach 1.6470 again, USD/CHF might go to the level of 1.0150 and USD/JPY will be trading between 91.20-92.00.

 

[GFSignals]

October 29, 2009

On Wednesday, October 28, 2009, as it was expected by the leading Forex signals developers:smart:, the recovery of the American currency continued. All the bucks’ rivals were suppressed, except the British pound, which continues to go upward. The fall down of quotes at Asian, European and, finally, American stock exchanges lead to very active Forex signals providers’ and investors’ buying USD. And then the news on New Home Sales from the USA, which showed positive dynamics, brought the rivals of USD down.

As the result, EUR/USD finished the trading day not far from the day’s minimum of 1.4690, USD/CHF rose up for 80 pips, but USD/JPY fell down for about 100 pips and set at to 90.60. At the same time GBP/USD went up a bit and by the end of the trading day was trading at about 1.6370.

The main attention of trades and Forex signals providers on Thursday, October 29, 2009, is to be drawn to the release of data on changes of the American GDP. According to the predictions and expectations, US GDP can grow for about 3.2% in comparison with the previous period. But the situation may turn out to be not so positive, as it’s expected to be. In that case we’ll observe another phase of USD recovery.:whistling

Due to that, EUR/USD is likely to continue falling down to 1.4600, USD/CHF may rise up to the level of about 1.0350. Some Forex signals analysts also expect, that GBP/USD might reach the level of 1.6420 and USD/JPY can turn out to fall down again to about 90.00.

 

[GFSignals]

October 30, 2009

On Thursday, October 29, 2009, the rivals of USD managed to stop the recovery of the American currency. All traders and investors were waiting for the data on US GDP, which was predicted to show positive dynamics. And one of the main factors of EUR, GBP and CHF’s rise was the news on unemployment in Germany – the number of unemployed reduced for 26 thousand people. And the news about Lloyd’s bank trying to avoid participation in one of new British government’s projects pushed the British currency up greatly.:whistling

Due to that GBP/USD was to reach the maximum level of 1.6603:clap: and finish the trading day at 1.6561. The info about the changes in American GDP (increased for 3.5%)made traders return into “carry trade”, which was also to push USD down. So, EUR/USD went up to 1.4858 and USD/CHF fell down to 1.0166.

On Friday, October 30, 2009, the main attention is to be paid to the news on Retail sales in Germany, British Nat\'wide House prices indices, data on unemployment in Euro-zone and University of Michigan Confidence index.

Due to the predictions, at the end of the trading day EUR/USD is likely to return to the support level at about 1.4750. GBP/USD might continue rising up and set up higher than 1.6650 with the support at 1.6400. USD/CHF may fall down again to 1.0100.

 

[GFSignals]

November 02, 2009

That week is going to be quite rich in different economic news, which can influence the situation on the market very seriously. The behaviour of traders and Forex signals developers will be determined by publishing of macroeconomic data, decisions of central banks and situation on stock markets.

In the USA the main news to be taken into consideration is unemployment rate and unemployment Change in Nonfarm Payrolls. Besides that, the important data on FOMC Rate Decision and ADP Employment Change will be released.:smart:

In Eurozone PMI and Manufacture index will be released. And in Great Britain the big amount of data on manufacture sector is going to be announced. At the same time the central banks of Britain, USA, Euro-zone and Australia will make decisions about interest rates. It’s expected that the rates can be changed, and that can change the development of the situation.sly:

That week EUR/USD can continue falling down and break through the point of 1.4600. But correction is also possible, if the news turn out to be negative for USD against the predictions. At the same time GBP/USD can rise up and finally to be trading at about 1.6600. The support for GBP/USD is situated at 1.6200.:innocent: For USD/CHF the possible target is 1.0100 and USD/JPY is likely to go down to 90.00/.

 

[GFSignals]

November 03, 2009

The beginning of the trading week turned to out to be a bit failure for The American currency. The first reason for that was the rise of Asian and European stock indices, which made the European rivals of USD push it down. European PMI Manufacturing turned out to show positive dynamics and due to that EUR/USD went up to 1.4787 and USD/CHF fell to 1.0207.

Then the data from the United States was also to make USD fall. ISM Manufacturing grew to 55,7 (53 predicted), which was good news for investors. At the same time the Pending Home Sales also grew to 6.1% and that was the factor to bring EUR/USD to 1.4844. But just a pair of hours before the end of the trading day the fall down of American stock indices made EUR/USD return back to 1.4730, USD/JPY to 90.50 and GBP/USD – to the level of about 1.64.:clap:

On Tuesday, November 03, 2009, there won’t be much important news, but some of them can influence the situation on the market and trading behaviour of many investors. The attention should be paid to the changes of Factory Orders in the USA (according to the prediction will show positive dynamics) and the decision of RBA on cash target. :smart:At this rate it can be expected, that USD will continue its recovery. So, EUR/USD is likely to fall down to 1.4700 and GBP/USD might go down to about 1.6300.:whistling

 

[GFSignals]

November 04, 2009

On Tuesday, as it has been predicted in yesterday’s Forex forecast, the American currency has started the day with enormous rise against its European rivals. The fall down of European stock indices together with reducing of oil prices brought EUR/USD down to 1.4650 in few moments, GBP/USD was thrown down to almost 1.6250. At the same time USD/JPY, vice versa, continued falling and set at about 90.00.

The dollar’s rise up finished after the opening of American stock exchanges. The news about Warren Buffett’s buying Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. made investors crazy in buying more risky and high-profitable currencies. This, combined with the rising of gold and oil prices, helped EUR/USD to return to about 1.4700.:clap: GBP/USD and USD/JPY returned to the open points.

In spite of quite big number of news on Wednesday, November 04, 2009, the main attention of market participants will be brought to USA FOMC Rate Decision. According to the prediction the rate should remain the same without changes. And the news on ADP Employment Change are also to be taken into consideration. Due to that, EUR/USD may return to about 1.4800 and GBP/USD is likely to go up to the level of 1.6500.

 

[GFSignals]

November 09, 2009

This week, in comparison with the last one, won’t be quite economically rich. Due to that the news from stock exchanges and markets will be very important. The fact, that FRS of the United States decided not to increase the interest rate, shows, that US economics isn’t in ideal condition at the moment. The same could be said about the world economics in whole. But the situation improves and according to the predictions the leading countries’ GDP can increase next year.

And the data on GDP of European countries is to be taken into consideration next week, as it can influence on the situation on the market greatly and make investors active. Besides the release of Eurozone GDP and GDP of its most developed parts (Germany, France, Italy) the data on ZEW Survey (Germany) and Euro-Zone Industrial Production are also to be considered. In the USA the news on Trade Balance, Import Price Index and University of Michigan Confidence Index are extremely important because of up-to-date economic situation. And the data on British Claimant Count Rate and Total Trade Balance might turn the market upside down very quickly.

So, next week the rivals of USD are likely to rise up. EUR/USD can reach the level of about 1.5000, but then fall down even to 1.4750. GBP/USD might go up to 1.6800, but then fall a bit. USD/CHF may set at the historical and psychological level of 1.0000 and USD/JPY is expected to go downwards to about 88.00.