FOMC Fed Day

[wildfiction]

Don't forget that today is a Fed Day.

Fed Day Video - shows 5 minute bar chart with MP chart for the E-mini S&P500 developing during the previous Fed Day at 90x speed so the whole day fits into a few minutes - useful for getting an idea about what happens on a Fed Day.

96% probability that rate hike will be 0.25 and 4% probability that it will be 0.50. Fed rate change announcement is made at 14:15 EST so expect fireworks after that.

Be profitable!!

 

[hmalik]

Does anyone think that Fed may indicate pausing rate hikes personally I dont think as they would like to leave the door open anyone with any views ???

 

[jacinto]

Does anyone think that Fed may indicate pausing rate hikes personally I dont think as they would like to leave the door open anyone with any views ???

i think the signal is that there will be more to come.......data dependent.

 

[wildfiction]

I can't see them stopping anytime soon. Consumer confidence is way high and house prices are out of control.

 

[wildfiction]

Tomorrow (8/8/06) is FOMC meeting day again.

What do you think? Another 0.25 or leave flat?

 

[passive]

i'm working on the assumption of flat to mild rally into announcement and overall downward movement towards the end of the day.

 

[passive]

that was fun.

 

[vimkar]

the rates remained the same . but the dolar went bulish ...

 

[DeltaGuy]

Reminder: FOMC Fed Day tomorrow!

 

[DeltaGuy]

Reminder: Fed Day tomorrow. 98% probability of no rate change: Previous FOMC Charts

 

[bizmanny]

Reminder: Fed Day tomorrow. 98% probability of no rate change: Previous FOMC Charts

How do you think the markets might react to any 3 possible outcome from the fed. Increase rate , Cut rate, or no change.

 

[DeltaGuy]

Large reaction if increase or decrease (i.e. much more volatility) and a small reaction if kept the same - less volatility but still some.

Probably more directional market if kept the same and more whippy if increase or decrease.

 

[DeltaGuy]

Reminder: Fed Day on Wednesday!

Probability of rate cut: 2%
Probability of no change: 98%

 

[DeltaGuy]

Reminder: Fed Day tomorrow. 98% probability of no rate change: Previous FOMC Charts

Same probabilities for tomorrow. 98% no rate change and 2% chance that the rate is cut by quarter of a point.

 

[DeltaGuy]

95% probability that there will be a rate cut tomorrow.

 

[fossie]

they sai a rate cut of 75 BP to 125 BP tomorrow!!!!

 

[DeltaGuy]

Don't forget that it's Fed Day tomorrow!

 

[fossie]

Reminder: Tomorrow is Fed Day.