First post, Newb question

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Sep 3, 2009
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#1
Hello,

I've been lurking for a day or two now, I'm a professional poker player who loves to being creative and playing strategical games (by the way, if anyone wants to trade poker lessons for trading lessons i'd be open to it).

I've read up a little bit on how to trade and i have a practice account on oanda. Here's my question, how much of trading is looking at graphs and how often does one refer to the news. Can you be a winning trader on sheer chart-reading ability? (and 2nd question, does my question even make sense! haha).

Looking forward to discussing more with you. Run It!
 

Masquerade

Well-known member
Nov 28, 2007
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#2
What site? What screen name and which game/format do you play?

Deciding whether to rely on charts or the news is up to the trader. I personally believe the best traders will not rely solely on one means and find a balance between using a chart and using the news. You can be a winning trader using charts, but you can be so much better if you understand what's going on as one day the chart will catch you out.
 

Masquerade

Well-known member
Nov 28, 2007
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#4
:-0 I'm impressed.

Why do you want to do trading or is it diversification? I reckon you have a good chance at it.

Wow, you played fullflush - he's a legend :p
 
Aug 18, 2009
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#5
If your asking about poker, my screen name is runittrim on fulltiltpoker.com. I play most 1 on 1 (headsup) cash games. mostly 10/20 nl holdem and 25/50 nl holdem.

Pker skills can help you in trading as fast as money management is concerned
 

Masquerade

Well-known member
Nov 28, 2007
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#6
Pker skills can help you in trading as fast as money management is concerned
+ understanding of trading odds, then you have the discipline (knowing when to fold, when to call) and also the ability to not let money affect your decisions.
 
Sep 3, 2009
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#7
Yeah, as a poker player i definitely developed some very good money managing skills. And i'm glad you think it will help.

Now back to my question again, so let's say that from what I read i think the USD is on its way up. Then, i see that EUR/USD is on a downtrend over the last hour. Should i be encouraged to short the euro here because of the news even though the time period is so short? But If its over a few hours, or even days should i take my news analysis even more seriously?


p.s. Fullflush, i only played him a bit when i didnt know who he was. He's definitely someone i wouldn't play again from what i observed, he's a great headsup holdem player.
 

Masquerade

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Nov 28, 2007
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#9
It's -EV to take a stance prior to news as the more variables you include into your trading the greater the chance of it going wrong. Ideally, it'd be best to take a good trade with little variables affecting it in the immediate future. Markets will be manipulated on days of big news and you can easily see a position flip. It's like 4 bet bluffing pre-flop but not willing to call a shove and this is what those market makers are capable of doing.

It depends on what time scale you really want to trade for, because a downtrend over 1 hour isn't very much if you're planning to hold the trade for a few hours/days. Ideally you want to be in the position that will offer you the biggest move and with the least potential downside.

It's important to bear in mind the news and just be aware of things. It's most important if you're trading a move just after the news as you could be buying/selling a false move and it's important to recognise this. After an hour or so of news the market has digested the news pretty much so it's less important to know the figures, but it'd still be good to know if it beat forecast/was worse than forecast or forecast as it doesn't hurt to know.

Do you have any idea what style of trading you'll be wanting to do? Short-term (few minutes), medium term (few hours) or longer term (anything from a few days - weeks.) I personally believe as retail traders our best edge is trading in the medium to longer term rather than competing against those with better information speeds on the very short term, not to mention trading costs. Are you intending to trade with Oanda for live trading?
 
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Black Swan

Well-known member
Nov 24, 2008
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#11
It would be great if you progressed to a journal, I'd be fascinated to watch how a poker player adjusts to the diferent rigours of financial trading...FWIW (if I were you and given your background skills) I'd trade 'off' 15 min/1 hr TF's as I reckon it'd be best suited to your profile/personality as a poker player.

Probabilities are as relevant to poker as they are to trading, entering the trade (nine times out of ten) correctly is simple once you've found a strat. and edge you're comfortable with; "the probability is if I take the bet here the market will move in my favour"...after that the other discretionary skills you've developed come into play, holding nerve/controlling emotion exiting when the signals (lagging and leading) are suggesting you exit.

There is, however, a crucial difference between trading and poker - techincal analysis. There is no quick route to understanding TA and using it to discover/compliment how and why price action occurs. There are no shortcuts, it takes a huge amount of investigation and screen time...
 

Masquerade

Well-known member
Nov 28, 2007
2,543
283
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#12
There is, however, a crucial difference between trading and poker - techincal analysis. There is no quick route to understanding TA and using it to discover/compliment how and why price action occurs. There are no shortcuts, it takes a huge amount of investigation and screen time...
I'm not so sure - it's highly possible to be succesful without relying heavily on TA and quite frankly a lot of TA is rubbish. There's no need to learn about stochastics/bollingers/CCI/MACD and all the other hundreds of indicators around.

Depending on the style all you need to do is figure out if the market is trending up/down and it's not exactly tough - Runittrim saw eur/usd was trending down so we're going to assume he is already capable of this and we don't know what indicators he has. That's the first part, then just decide: whether you want to go with the trend or counter-trend. Finally: entry decision and you can do that off price action/candlestick formation or support/resistance without having to spend years and years scouring through books, staring at charts. All you need is to find one thing you can make work and that's enough - but you will still need some screen time just to check it actually does work.
 

Black Swan

Well-known member
Nov 24, 2008
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#13
I'm not so sure - it's highly possible to be succesful without relying heavily on TA and quite frankly a lot of TA is rubbish. There's no need to learn about stochastics/bollingers/CCI/MACD and all the other hundreds of indicators around.

Depending on the style all you need to do is figure out if the market is trending up/down and it's not exactly tough - Runittrim saw eur/usd was trending down so we're going to assume he is already capable of this and we don't know what indicators he has. That's the first part, then just decide: whether you want to go with the trend or counter-trend. Finally: entry decision and you can do that off price action/candlestick formation or support/resistance without having to spend years and years scouring through books, staring at charts. All you need is to find one thing you can make work and that's enough - but you will still need some screen time just to check it actually does work.
I don't disagreee with anything you've added there, however, (and I realise it's a discussion/argument done to death on 'ere) but what actually constitutes TA? Even the 'simple' decision making you listed above using; candles, S&R, MAs... still uses TA even to establish something as simple as a trend requires a minimum of TA.
Presumably you've 'evolved' to strip away most of what (to you) is the unecessary indicators, IMHO that's a very personal issue and requires testing of indicators to suit the edge you'll evenutally develop.
I've never believed it's a 'rights of passage' to lose a lump of cash in order to go through a pain barrier to progress, however, I do think it's a nec. part of any trader's development to understand TA, 'play' with it and to then strip away the layers of confusion to support their decision making..