Feeder Cattle

[minx]

Ok, long FC Q4 from a couple of days ago, hasn't really moved since then. Long from the close of the gap up day, anyone think it might just be waiting, catching its breath so to speak, before moving higher? DMI's moving higher on that gap too......(unsurprisingly)

 

[bgold]

Ok, long FC Q4 from a couple of days ago, hasn't really moved since then. Long from the close of the gap up day, anyone think it might just be waiting, catching its breath so to speak, before moving higher? DMI's moving higher on that gap too......(unsurprisingly)

I like the potential targetting 120+. Wave 4 correction may be in and support at 110.10 (top wave 3) but need to see followthrough shortly. If not, given the huge bullrun since April downside could be considerable.

Where do you put your stop? Jul1st lows at 107.5, 14June at 106.775? Or, yesterdays' lows?
I would feel most comfortable with 107.5 and therefore consider risk a little too much for my liking.
Thanks for posting this meat trade. Hope the above thoughts are of interest.
Good luck,


PS. FC U4 is seasonally strong between 1Jul - 12Jul! Worked fabulously but watch out as we approach the exit date!

 

[minx]

The weakness in feeder cattle could filter through so a short on them and you'd have a spread hedge. I have a fairly tight stop on it as if it turns into an island reversal i'll be out....if I can
The long un up may just be catching its breath will this pullback before heading skyward again.
How do you post your esignal charts? When I try to post them they're 4MB?!?!?!
Where in SW London are you?

 

[bgold]

1. FC has a good open thusfar. I agree on potential.
2. Try right click in Adv Charts, send immage to local file, scale down to 70% & save to desktop, from where you can attach using "manage attachments button.
3. Putney, are you near?

 

[minx]

Thanks for the tips, I'm your neighbour: Clapham Junction
Would like to see it move up out of its range just so I can close the gap with the stop.
Do you only trade the US commods or do you do anything on LCE/LIFFE??

 

[minx]

As you can see from the chart the Live Cattle are falling and could try to break the base of the triangle..... middle sell wasn't particularly good but tight stops saved the day....

 

[jmreeve]

As you can see from the chart the Live Cattle are falling

When this is over is there a possibility the hogs might be flying?

Sorry to be flippant but livestock trading commentary always makes be chuckle.

 

[minx]

haha, yeah

 

[bgold]

Will pigs fly or fry?

Minx, I concentrate on commodities traded on US markets. Naturally can not avoid keeping an eye on London trading in fe Cocoa, sugar and Copper.

As compared to LC Q, FC Q held up well, although the hog/cattle spread (+2.4%) was flying. So pigs can fly?

That said, my broker thinks they will fry and recommends to sell hogs: (sell stop 50pts below open, if filled, risk 7570 looking for a 190 pts profit?) What do you think?

Now its my turn for advice on eSignal charts. How do you get these nice shaed on your eSignal chart? Thanks

 

[minx]

The shadings are actually from someone elses files, I can email them to you if you want. I think if you goto the formula editor and create a formula, I've been mucking around with it recently as I dont know how to program and all attempts to have ended in confusion and anger
Will look at the products you mentioned in a minute.
As you seem to have a good deal of experience could you just direct me to a few of the main spreads, inter and intra product spreads: ie- hogs and cattle isn't something I'd have thought of..... is it an actual contract?
Thanks

 

[bgold]

The shadings are actually from someone elses files, I can email them to you if you want. I think if you goto the formula editor and create a formula, I've been mucking around with it recently as I dont know how to program and all attempts to have ended in confusion and anger
Will look at the products you mentioned in a minute.
As you seem to have a good deal of experience could you just direct me to a few of the main spreads, inter and intra product spreads: ie- hogs and cattle isn't something I'd have thought of..... is it an actual contract?
Thanks

I wastrying to be funny about the hogs vs Cattle spread. Try for spreads www.MRCI.com. actually, Long LC Z vs Short LH Z is a seasonal spread trade, see chart attached. Inter market meat spreads are risky business though.
More obvious spreads are HO vs HU, W vs C, and ofcourse old vs new crop trades in the grains. There are some good books on the market. Before doing anything in spreads, I recommend reading Joe Ross and Courtney Cox books.
good luck

 

[bgold]

Minx, your FC trade is looking good!
Risk/reward ratio seems to have improved a lot. Stop technically now just below yesterdays' lows?

 

[minx]

ta, looking at SM Q4 long too, possibly place sm q4-sm z4 spread.....
thoughts?

 

[bgold]

ta, looking at SM Q4 long too, possibly place sm q4-sm z4 spread.....
thoughts?

yes, i'll put under new thread

 

[bgold]

FC reversal?

FCQ momentum has turned south. Negative divergence in RSI, MACD, Mom, Oscillator, etc. Short trade triggered by croissing of stochastics.
Also a Double top at on Jul12/13. Doji star?

A higher risk reversal trade:

Short on break of yesterdays' lows. Short entry at 110.75, initial target: below 105, Initial stop: 113.10 (will probably adjust to just above yesterdays' close 111.65 or depending of price action to breakeven).

Like to see the 6 July rising window closed before comfortable with this position.

 

[bgold]

Front months FC and LH limit down? Apparently on no real news and that's bearish (talking book ) I understand from broker that it is liquidation by Commodity Funds.

Rising window at 108.8 in FCQ has been closed. Bearish sign. Market expect to open lower. Any bounce is an opportunity for the bears to open/add shorts on a retracement of part decline of past 2 days. This correction (if not new downtrend) could go a long way but hey this is a meat contract and stranger things have happened in that pit. So watch out.

 

[bgold]

Front months FC and LH limit down? Apparently on no real news and that's bearish (talking book ) I understand from broker that it is liquidation by Commodity Funds.

Rising window at 108.8 in FCQ has been closed. Bearish sign. Market expect to open lower. Any bounce is an opportunity for the bears to open/add shorts on a retracement of part decline of past 2 days. This correction (if not new downtrend) could go a long way but hey this is a meat contract and stranger things have happened in that pit. So watch out.

Stopped out at a 0.10 loss when during vacation FC gapped up. Rookie error not taking healthy gain but being greedy. Too bad. Another lesson learnt.
Now long at 113.25 Target: 125'ish (perhaps a bit optimistic); Stop at B/E

If FCQ fails to rally, this could again be a great sale as it looks like triple top & RSI displays neg divergence. Keep an eye on the Feeders!