GBP/USD: "DOUBLE TOP" LED TO DECLINE
The last "Double Top" pattern led to the current decline. The main intraday target is the 34 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens little later on, there'll be an opportunity to have another bullish pice movement.
The price is consolidating between the 34 & 55 Moving Averages. It's likely that the pair is going to test the nearest resistance at 1.4206, which could be a departure point for a decline in the direction of the next support at 1.4011.
GBP/USD: MAIN INTRADAY TARGET IS 55 MA
We've got a "Double Top" pattern, which has been confirmed. The main intraday target is the 55 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens afterwards, there'll be a moment to have another upward price movement.
All the Moving Averages have been broken, but there's a "V-Bottom" pattern, so the pair is likely going to reach the nearest resistance at 1.4082. If we have a pullback from this level, bears will probably try to achieve the next support at 1.3915 - 1.3884.
The main trend is still bullish, but there's a "Double Top" pattern, which has been confirmed. So, the pair is likely going to test the nearest support at 1.2300 - 1.2272 in the short term. If a pullback from this area happens little later on, there'll be a moment to have another bullish price movement.
The 89 Moving Average has acted as support, so the price is consolidating. Therefore, the market is likely going to achieve the closest resistance at 1.2398. This level could be a departure point for a decline towards the next support at 1.2300 - 1.2272.
On the daily chart, EUR/JPY retested the upper border of the previous consolidation range of 131.50-134.30. This and the following formation of a pinbar will allow bulls to return initiative. The necessary condition to continue advance towards 127.2% of the AB=CD pattern is the confident test of resistance at 136.25.
On H1, EUR/JPY the inability of bears to lead the pair below 38.2% of the last bullish wave points at their weakness. A break of resistance at 136.25 will open the way to the upside.
On the daily chart, a natural pullback happened after USD/JPY reached 88.6% target of the “Bat” pattern. If bears manage to hold the pair within inside the downward trading channel, chances of a sharp decline’s continuation will increase substantially.
On the hour chart, a break of resistance at 109.50 will increase the risks of activation of the “Shark” pattern with a target of 88.6%. In an obvious bearish trend, rebounds from levels of 110.05-110.15 and 110,65 should be used for selling.
EUR/GBP: BULLS RETREAT, BUT DON’T GIVE UP
TP1 0.8775 TP2 0.8715 TP3 0.869
On the daily chart of EUR/GBP, bears failed with their attack on the support of the lower border of the medium-term consolidation range of 0.8690-0.9015. Sellers retain hopes for a break and formation of the AB=CD pattern.
On H1, a break above resistance levels at 0.8780 and 0.8810 will increase the risks of triggering Gartley pattern with a target at 78.6% of the wave XA. From this area (0.8870-0.8880), there is a high possibility of aggressive selling by large players.
IMPORTANT WEEK FOR GBP, AUD AND NZD // FOREX OUTLOOK FOR FEB. 5-9
Last week the US dollar index managed to close at the positive territory for the first time since the start of December. USD rallied on Friday on upbeat US jobs data. American wages rose at the fastest pace since 2009. This fueled inflation expectations and made the market price in more rate hikes. As a result, this week the American currency has a chance to get a bit higher or at least to remain supported.
USD/JPY returned from 108.30 up to 110.00. If it manages to overcome resistance at 110.45, it may recover to 200-day MA at 111.70.
The advance of EUR/USD once again stopped at 1.2500. Support lies at 1.2350 and 1.2250. German political parties still didn’t manage to form a coalition. Yet, the region’s economy is strong and there will be few events to disturb the euro. It might be a good idea to buy the euro in crosses like EUR/JPY, EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD and EUR/CAD.
GBP/USD was rejected down from 1.4280. Apart from the strong US figures, the pair was hurt by weak data from Britain’s construction sector. At the same time, traders are afraid to act ahead of the Bank of England’s meeting. There’s a spinning top candle on the weekly chart – a sign of the market’s uncertainty. Governor Mark Carney sounded upbeat recently, and some analysts think that the BoE will raise interest rates in May. If the central bank confirms such expectations, GBP.USD will get to 1.4370/1.44. A disappointment will lead the pair down to 1.3975 and 1.3830.
Apart from the BoE meeting on Thursday, the economic calendar for this week contains the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australian on Tuesday and the New Zealand’s central bank on Wednesday.
As for NZD/USD, it strengthened since the last RBNZ meeting, although the economic data became worse. The pair looks vulnerable for a decline to 0.7240 and 0.7190.
AUD/USD: BEARS ACTED RIGHT OFF THE BAT
TP1 0.8075 TP2 0.8125 TP3 0.8215
On the daily chart AUD/USD, an exit of the pair out of an upward trading channel and a break of support at 88.6% and 78.6% from the last wave showed a return of initiative to bears. They met an important area of 0.7885-0.7895 convergence, a continuation of a southern campaign is impossible without breaking below it.
On the hour chart, as the pair reached an intermediate target at 127.2% of the pattern “Crab”, the odds of a pullback increased. An update of the February low will allow counting on a realization of 161.8% target.
On the daily chart of XAU/USD, bulls managed to defend support at $1324-1328 an ounce. If bears succeed in another attempt to pulls the prices below this level, the risks of a pullback to $1306 and lower will increase. To continue rally towards 127.2% target of AB=CD, gold would need to rise above January high.
On H1, a break of the upper border of an uptrend will increase the odds of the pair going to 88.6% target of the “Shark” pattern. A pullback, on the other hand, will create grounds for the formation of the “Head and Shoulders”.
On the daily chart, USD/CAD bulls managed to rise above the upper border of the uptrend channel. As a result, the odds of an inverted “Shark” pattern with target at 88.6% have substantially increased.
On H1, the probability of USD/CAD pulling back to support levels at 1.2485-1.2510 and 1.2390-1.2410 increased after the pair reached 113% target of the junior “Shark” pattern. If USD/CAD renews February high, this will create grounds for going to 88.6% target of the senior “Shark” pattern.
On the daily chart, GBP/USD bull managed to defend support at 1.3830-1.3835. As a result, the pair formed a pinbar. A successful test of its high will allow the pound to count on the uptrend’s resumption.
On H1, GBP/USD keeps forming 1-2-3 and “Spike with reversal and acceleration”. To break the uptrend, bears need to pull the pair out of the trading channel and reach 88.6% target of the “Bat”. The odds of this scenario are not high.
USD/CHF HAS LITTLE SPACE IN THE CORRIDOR
BUY 0.9395 SL 0.934 TP1 0.948 TP2 0.96
SELL 0.929 SL 0.9345 TP1 0.919 TP2 0.905
On the daily chart, USD/CHF reached the interim target at 113% of the “Crab” pattern: bulls are trying to counterattack. To develop correction, they need to overcome resistance at 0.9410 and 0.9485-0.9505.
On H1, a break of the upper border of the 0.929-0.9395 consolidation range will increase the odds of its getting to 88.6% of the inverted “Shark” pattern. On the other hand, a decline below the support at 0.9290 will lead to the resumption of the downtrend.
GBP/USD IS HEADING TOWARDS SUPPORT
The price is testing the 89 Moving Average. The main intraday target is the nearest support at 1.3741. If a pullback from this level happens, we could have an upward price movement towards the 89 Moving Average.
There's a "Pennant" pattern, so the market is likely going to achieve the closest support at 1.3804 - 1.3741. However, if a pullback from this area is on the table, bulls will probably try to reach the next resistance at 1.3834 - 1.3895.
The spectacular decline of US stocks was the biggest event of last week. Dow Jones experienced a record fall: it lost more than 1,000 points in one day.
The US dollar took its chance to recover. Traders fear that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates faster than expected. This may hurt profits of American companies, but boosts demand for the cheap dollar.
The USD index managed to return above 90.00 and has some chance for stabilization. Resistance is at 91.00.
Investors took profit on their bullish EUR/USD positions, and the pair slid by 1.4%. It has to rise above 1.2345 to resume uptrend. Decline below 1.2220 will open the way down to 1.2125 and 1.2080, although we think that the euro should be more or less stable given the euro area’s strong economy.
GBP/USD also corrected down last week. The Bank of England offered the pound a positive boost. It raised the UK economic forecasts and said that interest rates probably needed to rise sooner and faster than it had previously thought. However, the general market selloff affected the pound, and GBP/USD failed to stay above 1.40. Support is at 1.38 and 1.3665. Yet, fundamentals have improved and the pair may try to resume uptrend after some consolidation.
Australian and New Zealand dollars suffered because of the market’s risk aversion and the fact that central banks of these nations don’t plan to raise interest rates. Both AUD/USD and NZD/USD recovered by the end of the week, but still closed below the weekly moving averages.
Forex economic calendar for the coming days includes UK inflation figures on Tuesday, and US consumer inflation and retail sales on Wednesday. The flash European GDP figures will always be released in the middle of the week. Australian employment and US PPI will come out on Thursday and the speech of the RBA governor together with British retail sales and the US building permits are awaited on Friday.