Eurusd

[DownRiverTrader]

Last week we took profits on our long trade that we held out of 3080. Then late in the week, we set up shorts after the FOMC action near the 3386 level for an anticipated countertrend move back to River. At the close on Friday, we closed at 3283 just a few points above our River. Many of you may have taken profits on this 100+ point move ahead of the weekend as I recommended to cover your short trade at 3271. I also took profits happily and am flat. We have been successful at capturing a good portion of the moves in this pair over the last few weeks.

So what is our trading theme heading into this week?

The first thing you should do is review the Price Distribution Analysis for this pair. You will see that we are approaching a critical test area near the 3262 level at the bottom of the upper tier value level. I anticipate this will be the catalyst of our next directional move. If this level holds, then may trade up to higher levels near 3480. If this level fails, then we should begin to move down to test the 3132 area. The idea is to work yourself into position with minimal risk until you have confirmation of the directional move.

I also recommend reviewing the US Dollar Index and the Euro Index. You will see that the USD index is about to test a key level at River also which confirms our trading theme.

Understanding the theme above, what should we do?

Today's River Level is at 3255 confirming the PDA we discussed above and this is our focus. I anticipate a test of this level. In my opinion, we should err on the side of the longer term trend which is up. Traders should look to set up longs on a push into the 3255 River Level. Risk for this trade will be tricky given the above scenario. Try to be patient and let the move work the demand in this level. If you get out too early, you can always reset longs if the move up occurs. Upside target is 3353. I recommend that you exit longs here and wait for resolution of this area.

If the move goes strongly through the River Level to the downside, we can set up shorts looking for a move down to 3132. Obviously the move around this area may be volatile so have your plan ready and work either direction that materializes.

If the move up does materialize, it has the potential to be powerful. It would not surprise me if this may be the final push up for the Euro in 2007, but let's see what develops if we do in fact go to higher levels.

SHORT TERM NEUTRAL UNTIL RIVER IS RESOLVED

 

[tekyon]

Hallo DRT,

Message too big to quote, so here's an extract - Today's River Level is at 3255 confirming the PDA we discussed above and this is our focus. I anticipate a test of this level. In my opinion, we should err on the side of the longer term trend which is up. Traders should look to set up longs on a push into the 3255 River Level. Risk for this trade will be tricky given the above scenario. Try to be patient and let the move work the demand in this level. If you get out too early, you can always reset longs if the move up occurs. Upside target is 3353. I recommend that you exit longs here and wait for resolution of this area.

If the move goes strongly through the River Level to the downside, we can set up shorts looking for a move down to 3132. Obviously the move around this area may be volatile so have your plan ready and work either direction that materializes.

If the move up does materialize, it has the potential to be powerful. It would not surprise me if this may be the final push up for the Euro in 2007, but let's see what develops if we do in fact go to higher levels.

Reply:
I'm new to this forex game and this could be my first EURUSD trade but looking at the 15 min. chart, since the time of your post the 3255 level has held and the price has since hit the 3290 level.
I see that your chart above is daily, so maybe the 15 min. chart is not appropriate.

When it reaches 3300 that may be the time to start going long as you suggest, the only thing is and I haven't looked but are there any significant announcements this week, which could affect the gameplan if a long trade was entered now?
I'm not familiar with the USD Index and EUR Index.

Tekyon

 

[DownRiverTrader]

sorry--- for some reason I am not getting email updates if someone asks a question.

In the trade above I recommended to go long at 3255 and take profit at 3353. Actual low was 3254 and high was 3345. You should be long out of 3254, you can either take profit now, we are trading around the 3330 level, for about 80 ticks profit or you can stay long and manage the trade.

Learn to use the daily charts. Don't be afraid of the volatility. Trust your judgement.

DRT

I do keep a blog and you can subscribe to my updates via RSS so you will know if something cahnges. Good luck to you. We were all new traders at some point in our career.

 

[tekyon]

sorry--- for some reason I am not getting email updates if someone asks a question.

In the trade above I recommended to go long at 3255 and take profit at 3353. Actual low was 3254 and high was 3345. You should be long out of 3254, you can either take profit now, we are trading around the 3330 level, for about 80 ticks profit or you can stay long and manage the trade.

Learn to use the daily charts. Don't be afraid of the volatility. Trust your judgement.

DRT

I do keep a blog and you can subscribe to my updates via RSS so you will know if something cahnges. Good luck to you. We were all new traders at some point in our career.

Good morning,

Thanks for your message. Due to work and travel at the moment i have only intermittent access to the internet.
Shortly after sending you my first message I opened a trade long @ 3297 with a 25 pip stop. Once the pair started going up I moved the stop to b/e and after that moved the stop for a 30 pip gain. I was stopped out on the pullback with a 28 pip gain.
Had I been able to watch the chart I would have increased the stop but as I was travelling the next day decided to leave it at that because for some reason I do not like the idea of "set and forget" although I think I'm going to have to change that idea.

Tekyon

 

[pssonice]

u r talking too much, increase your credibility by a handful of rt entries

and I m willing to read your postes.
from my point of view there is only one chance for u to rise your credibility, doing like I do :

B 0811 C-DAX at:6849.5 t:6870
B 0813 C-DAX at:6854 t:6870
C 0818 C-DAX at:6856 t:6800
S 0821 C-DAX at:6854 t:6800
B 0831 C-DAX at:6851 t:6870
B 0850 C-DAX at:6855.5 t:6870
B 0907 C-DAX at:6858.5 t:6870
B 0939 C-DAX at:6858 t:6870
C 0957 C-DAX at:6868.5 t:6800
C covered all long position
BS 1000 C-DAX at:6871.5 t:6800
BS bought first short position
C 1044 C-DAX at:6866 t:6880
B 1052 C-DAX at:6865.5 t:6880
B 1113 C-DAX at:6866.5 t:6880


If u rnt able to give us your intraday entries u rnt able to do anything.

 

[DownRiverTrader]

Eurusd 3-29

If you are trading along with me, you should be short from 3353 or better. Once again, the market gave us the opportunity to establish shorts in the 3353/69 level. As anticipated, the supply at this level sent the market down around 44 ticks today

I continue to to look for a for a move back down to River at 3265. I expect a move through River and a continued move down to 3132/3119 where all shorts should cover.

Traders should review the updated Price Distribution Analysis to understand the significance of the move down to our River Level at 3265. If we do not trade through this area and continue downward, a strong upward move could begin. As your knowledge of my trading style grows, you will understand why I am choosing not to cover here as I normally would. I will say that the risk of this level holding is very high and you may choose to cover here to lock in profits and wait for further direction

What tells me my view is incorrect? Building value and settling above 3353/62 on a daily basis. This should be your risk level to manage your current profits.

 

[pssonice]

EURUSD didnt move for more than 4 hours, u r not able to recognize that there is

no chance in EURUSD to earn any money.
what is the value of the information u r distributing ?

"If you are trading along with me, you should be short from 3353 or better. Once again, the market gave us the opportunity to establish shorts in the 3353/69 level. As anticipated, the supply at this level sent the market down around 44 ticks today "

By the way EURUSD will rise in some minutes to new year highs. U R SHORT in EURUSD

===================================================================
B 1340 EURUSD at:13321.6 t:13400

IT IS ABSOLUTE RIDICULOUS TO TRADE RIGHT BEFORE the
US------JOBBBLEEESS NUMBERSSS in hope of something

Such kind of traders are gamblers, nothing else but gamblers and we have to get rid of gamblers
======================================================================

 

[pssonice]

weekly jobless claims r waiting 4 u

how is it possible being blinded by the light 4 more than 4 hours

 

[tekyon]

ur talking too much, increase your credibility by a handful of rt entries

Point taken. If you read my first post you'll see there is no way that I can have any credibility, let alone increase it.

You traded well on the DAX though - long may it continue!

 

[pssonice]

what happened to u ? no further entries ? did u lose contact to your datafeed ?

strange behaviour

 

[tekyon]

strange behaviour

As I said before I have only occasional access to the internet. Since my last post I have made only two trades:

GBPJPY +65 and GBPJPY -24.

At the moment unfortunately I don't have time to scalp the DAX the way you were doing and as you suggested I should do.

I certainly hope that you are still trading in step with the volatility.