EURUSD - important res/supp levels for day-traders

[coldrecs]

Best wishes for 2011 to everybody!

The forex market is slowly coming back to normal, after a period of low liquidity during Christmas and New Year’s Eve. The trend is up on the short term. The only significant resistance for the next couple of hours is near 1,3436. My feeling is that we are a little overbought here, so I expect a little of a negative reaction near that level. Afterwards the level can be surpassed. I will be back in the afternoon with an update.

 

[coldrecs]

Until now, Wednesday was very volatile. Thanks to a good ADP number, USD was up across the board. EURUSD plunged seriously during all day and touched 1.3125 before London close breaking an exotic option barrier rumored to be in placed at that level. Commodities managed an U turn after London close and the stock markets are mainly up for the day.
Obviously my 1,.36 level was a tougher resistance than I have imagined it to be. Not only in had paused the up-trend but it completely reversed it.
Also obviously we have now a support in the area of 1.3125 - 1.3114. Bellow that next support comes in only at 1.3076.
Resistance will probably be found near 1.3255

For today I have 3 charts. See them all here: http://www.ktd.ro/en/fin/fx.php

 

[coldrecs]

From the technical view point, the move from Friday looks like a rejection from an important resistance level. This makes me think that perhaps on early Monday we might see a continuation of the profit taking and more weakness for EURUSD.

Still, I see that most of the forecasters still anticipate EURUSD strength for the coming week. Also the CTFC report published late Friday shows that speculators are still very bullish on the euro.

Anyway, next week all eyes will be on Ben Bernanke's testimony before Congress and on the NFP to be announced on Friday. While the first event could be negative for the stock market and positive for USD (if there are hints that the Congress is opposed to more easing), the second one could generate some weakness for stocks and for USD also (if the unemployment rate will not continue to diminish as it did during the last couple of months).

From the technical point of view I have in mind the following levels of resistance and support for the Monday session:

1.4022 monthly R1
1.3934 my own calculated volatility band
1.3861 the high from Febr. 2nd
1.3522 the low from Febr. 22nd
1.3447 monthly pivot point
1.3422 the low from Febr. 14th