AntaresScorpius
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For the week of March 9-13, 2026, the EUR/USD pair is experiencing strong technical and fundamental pressure. Based on macroeconomic indicators and current sentiment, here are two possible directions:
📉 SHORT Scenario (Bearish) – The most likely in the short term
Currently, the pair is trending negative, trading around 1.1622.
• Dollar Strength: US inflation (PCE) expected at 3.1% and positive services data (ISM at a 3.5-year high) suggest the Fed will keep rates higher for longer.
• Safe Haven: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are pushing investors toward the dollar as a safe haven.
• Technical Analysis: The pair is in a descending channel with an RSI of 35, indicating continued selling pressure. If it breaks the support at 1.1600, the next target is the 1.1500 - 1.1468 area.
📈 LONG Scenario (Bullish) – Possible Rebound or Reversal
A long move would require a negative surprise from US data or a strong signal from Germany.
• Weak US Data: If PCE inflation on March 13 were to come in below 2.9% and the revised US GDP confirmed a sharp slowdown, the dollar would quickly lose ground.
• Eurozone Recovery: An unexpected jump in German industrial production (March 9) and factory orders could give the euro some breathing space, leading it to test the first resistance at 1.1686 (9-day moving average).
• Bullish Target: Only a decisive break above 1.1725 would open the way to 1.1815 (February high).
Operational Summary
The prevailing sentiment for this specific week remains bearish due to the divergence between a Fed cautious in cutting rates and an ECB that may be forced to do so if German industry continues to disappoint.
• Turning Point: Friday, March 13th, with the release of the US PCE, will be the real catalyst: high data will confirm the Short side, low data will trigger the Long side.
📉 SHORT Scenario (Bearish) – The most likely in the short term
Currently, the pair is trending negative, trading around 1.1622.
• Dollar Strength: US inflation (PCE) expected at 3.1% and positive services data (ISM at a 3.5-year high) suggest the Fed will keep rates higher for longer.
• Safe Haven: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are pushing investors toward the dollar as a safe haven.
• Technical Analysis: The pair is in a descending channel with an RSI of 35, indicating continued selling pressure. If it breaks the support at 1.1600, the next target is the 1.1500 - 1.1468 area.
📈 LONG Scenario (Bullish) – Possible Rebound or Reversal
A long move would require a negative surprise from US data or a strong signal from Germany.
• Weak US Data: If PCE inflation on March 13 were to come in below 2.9% and the revised US GDP confirmed a sharp slowdown, the dollar would quickly lose ground.
• Eurozone Recovery: An unexpected jump in German industrial production (March 9) and factory orders could give the euro some breathing space, leading it to test the first resistance at 1.1686 (9-day moving average).
• Bullish Target: Only a decisive break above 1.1725 would open the way to 1.1815 (February high).
Operational Summary
The prevailing sentiment for this specific week remains bearish due to the divergence between a Fed cautious in cutting rates and an ECB that may be forced to do so if German industry continues to disappoint.
• Turning Point: Friday, March 13th, with the release of the US PCE, will be the real catalyst: high data will confirm the Short side, low data will trigger the Long side.
