Euro Vs Dollar

cricket

Junior member
27 0
Is it time to get in on the Euro going up against the dollar, It has fallen 400 points in the last week to 12420, Is this the borrom or do we think to give it more time to drop further. Was thinking about taking out a June trade to give it time? Any coments will be gratefully received.
 

kevinmcm

Active member
220 2
400 points is realtive to the fast and sudden push last week though. Maybe overdone now and I dont see any comments on the outlook changing for this year, 1.3 - 1.32 still appears to be on the cards for now. Negative comments by some in the Eurozone have not helped this week and probably some profit taking. Risky trade just now, needs a tight stop because if it fails it could be heading down to 1.2350 area.
 

GeckoTime

Member
70 0
Hmm, I think the rapid appreciation in the $ is a result of traders closing their short positions prior to the G7 mtng in Feb given comments by the ECB and various US banking figures that they would act in the forex mkts if the $ depreciated much further. Plus apparently there were some positive figures out today saying that there are alot of people investing in the US, hence there was a large inflow. A lot of uncertainty overall, but I think you are right in saying that this seems like too much too quick. A friend of mine had a Euro long at 1.24, saw it go out to 1.28 holding on until it reached 1.30 (the target according to everyone) and he is now right back where he started....
 

PeterTT

Member
87 1
I am being careful here .. I sold some Euros a few days ago at 1.2760 and took my profits far too quickly (1.2535). We have had a very large downward move this week after hitting a new high, and the last time this occured it went down about 11 big figures (1.19 to 1.08). I think we could well see a similar downward move down to 1.18. I will only be buying if it gets below 1.20 but will not bet the house on it !
Peter
 

options

Senior member
2,374 218
Just trade it how the chart is telling you to.
 

kevinmcm

Active member
220 2
The chart can change rapidly, saying trade what the chart says is only a part of it. Keeping an eye on the BoJ manipulating the currency markets is another to keep an eye out for. Forex is difficult due to the huge swings that can occur. Someone says the wrong thing and the chart wont know whats hit it.

The chart is pointing down but I wouldnt be willing to put the house on it continuing down. There are reasons why it dropped off and those reasons could be negated and we see it shooting back up again in a days or weeks. Who knows?

BoE minutes out this week, could they herald a rate rise in the near future? £ could take off, followed by the €.

The € outlook is positive overall and the chart wont tell you that.

Share of euro-denominated bonds tops 30% for 1st time in 2003
http://news.tradingcharts.com/futures/7/8/52572687.html

$/¥ looks like it could have a bumpy ride next week

Dollar likely to stay vulnerable next week despite rebound Friday
http://news.tradingcharts.com/futures/9/0/52571109.html

So expect the € to be up and down with it :LOL:

Kevin.
 

options

Senior member
2,374 218
Of course the chart can change rapidly, that's why I use it to trade from. How quick depends on what time frame you use. shorter time frames are pointing down yes. Longer time frames are showing a small retracement at the moment. Has it turned yet? Who knows.
No one.


"Forex is difficult due to the huge swings that can occur. Someone says the wrong thing and the chart wont know whats hit it."

It will be reflected in the chart one minute later.

B.O.E changing rates, euro/£, BOJ whatever they do it doesn't matter. I'm not intelligent enough to know how the market will react and I don't care how the market reacts. If I think some news has been announced that means the market will sell off and I then short the market and it goes up. How long do I hold onto the trade because I know what the market will do. 30 minutes? 3 hours, 3 days? No. I dump it as soon as it goes against me

Each trade starts from a one minute trade. If that trade runs for a day great. 3 months? Even better.


"The chart is pointing down but I wouldn't be willing to put the house on it continuing down. There are reasons why it dropped off and those reasons could be negated and we see it shooting back up again in a days or weeks. Who knows?"

I wouldn't be willing to put the house on any trade. As a trader I trade what the chart tells me to do. An investor will go for the much longer time frame, and that certainly is not my cup of tea.
 

kevinmcm

Active member
220 2
options - I hear what you are saying, what strategy do you use, tight stops I assume ? Not that it matters if its what works for you and its profitable it isnt wrong.

The point I'm making is that there are times when the BoJ activity can help you. For example, if the chart is pointing straight up and the BoJ say they will intervene the next day and push the dollar up and the € falls as it would then why not use that to your best advantage. I wouldnt long € if the chart was vertical and the BoJ were about to start playing games. To me the chart is one of many inicators you could be using but from experience using a single indicator will not give you the best return.

If a chart on its own works for you then great.

Kevin.
 

options

Senior member
2,374 218
Hi Kevinmcm.

The stops I use for forex are normally 20 to 30 pips away, but that doesn't mean to say that if I think a trade is about to go against, I'll let it run to the stop. I may scrub it after 5 pips if it doesn't 'feel' right. It's a bit intuitive instinct I'm afraid and comes from experience and 'feel' but is right more often than not. In truth my stops are placed in the market as a safeguard against system crashes, going to get a sandwich, sleeping, etc.
With futures I have very tight stops, 2 to 5 points to start with..
I prefer to be at the 'birth' of a trade and nurture it while it grows and only when it comes of age do the stops get widened and left to it's own devices. The first few seconds to 10 mins are very important to me.

I agree with what you are saying on major news. Something like the BOJ announcing their intention to interfere will have a marked effect. 9/11 etc will move the markets. General daily news being fed through was the point I was trying to get over. Being told on the wires that institution buying/selling coming from Asia on a certain currency can be misleading. An example last year, when I saw a news item of reported buying/selling of a currency pair, (can't remember which it was now) the chart said different and I acted with the chart. Payed off that time.

It would be hard to keep track of all the announcements of buying/selling that interest you and you have no idea as to what orders are already in the market waiting to be triggered.

To be fair to the fx market though. It is more 'honest' on news than share markets, and not prone to broker 'whims'.
If you saw 3 reports on the same share from 3 different brokers as I have on a few occasions; one saying buy, one saying sell and one saying hold. Which one would you go with?

Granted; most people would only see the report their own broker sent them and would either make or lose money accordingly. Certainly a situation that I'm not happy with.
 
 
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