Euro and Bloomberg

[ukdaytrader]

I heard on Bloomberg today that the Euro is set to weaken against the dollar so I have sold a few contracts Euro and Bought USD.

I heard this one the news today. Anyone have any thoughts on this ?

 

[vinicius]

what price did you sell?

 

[cr6196]

Yeah i have sold too, my system is showing a strong sell here, it is usually pretty accurate on these reversals when there is a reli strong uptrend...what i do is i slaughter a pig and pour the guts onto a rock and trade off that...yeah have re-mortgaged the house for this one, ftw!!!

Edit: i have worrying and disturbing news, i have conducted more thorough analysis...i cut the head off a chicken and led it run round on my pool table, i have set out squares with actions on and where it stops i follow the square's actions...it is saying sell eur/usd...im off to find another farmyard animal to hassle.

I find your method of trading strange and unusual but i wish you all the best with this one ukdaytrader.

 

[foredog]

EURUSD has run from 130 to 142 recently so i guess the talking heads on bloomberg are expecting profit taking, but the trend at the moment is still up

 

[arabianights]

I'm starting to think this is a wind up

 

[ukdaytrader]

OK I just wanted to make sure I got this correct

I sold 1 EURUSD at 1.43151
another at 1.43164
another at 1.43047

So at the moment 1 EUR buys 1.43 USD

Bloomberg are saying it will be 1.3USD in a months time.

So I sold the contracts.

I don't normally do FX particularly Euro/USD so just wanted to make sure that I have done the right thing in terms of selling ?

OK I think there is some rationale to this. If you think yields in the US have risen at the long end, makes it more profitable to hold dollars than Euro. It could take some time for money to move.

 

[foredog]

Someone playing the long game if it is....putting bloomberg TV into threads a week ago just to use it now.

I think it's just that some REALLY do believe what Coco the clown and all his pal say on Bloomberg/CNBC etc.

If i could call the market as well as they make out i'd be in the carribean not sat in a grubby studio showing off

 

[foredog]

Yep, you're short 3 EURUSD at an average of 14312.66. So if the $ rallies this pair will fall.

Good luck!

 

[ukdaytrader]

Here is the Article..........just want to make sure I've got the position the right way round.

Euro?s Rally Against Dollar May Be in ?Last Stage,? UBS Says - Bloomberg.com

 

[ukdaytrader]

On coco the clown, much like market direction don't fight it, embrace it.

The vast majority of Americans and UK traders and investors watch Bloomberg. They also believe it is true what they hear on Bloomberg, much like what they watch on Fox. They also act on it, sometimes to their peril.

The Brits read the Sun and what that S*** on Sky News and also believe most of it.

You obviously dont need to react to every story as I think it would really be a zero sum game if you did. However if you are cautious about what you select, at least do the analysis before jumping in, then it can yield pleasant results.

As long as you understand that what you are doing everyone else will be doing then its not really an issue.

 

[foredog]

On coco the clown, much like market direction don't fight it, embrace it.

The market direction is up.

Unlike some thinly traded stocks the type of people who follow tips on bloomberg do not have the monetary power to move a currency pair. no one in any bank would deal on the back of a bloomberg tip....you'd be laughed out of the door.

HEAD DEALER "why have you done $10m on EURUSD"

DEALER " Cos they said it was going down on Bloomberg"

HD "You complete C***t f**k off out of this office now and don't come back you ***** ***** ****.

That's what would've happened in my office and i'm sure others agree.

To put this into context, when you watchfootball on the BBC and Alan Hansen (the so called expert says "Everton should win this one" Do you put £250 on them?

They may be right but i wouldn't take a blind bit of notice of any of them. Especially one telling you to short something as it's rallying, at least wait for it to start falling before calling the top!

 

[ukdaytrader]

You see now is the decision time......It is around 1.428 this could be a Bloomberg effect so is it better to cash in now or should I wait for market direction. I will wait till the end of the day, if there are not more tips I will close out, that is if it is still in profit.

The thing is you dont know if someone made that statement on TV cause they thought they missed the rally wanted to go in and thought saying some nonsense would give them the opportunity to get in cheaper as there would be a blip in the price before the Rally continued.

 

[foredog]

You are deluded....BLOOMBERG TV cannot move the currency markets. Maybe an illiquid stock but not a major currency.

With this trade, now you are in profit i would have my stop at breakeven becasue and rally would probably signal a continuation of the upward trend and make this a pullback.

 

[ukdaytrader]

Look Look, they're moving them.......Foredog.....I dont believe for a moment they do.......but the channels acts to prompt analysis of key trends, companies, stocks, results etc.

A lot of this analysis is down to my own thoughts / research, but I do use this the Channel as a prompt for things that may move......I then go away and do my own research before acting as there have be a few 'dogs' on there as well.

 

[foredog]

good trade, not sure i agree with your entry but you can't argue with 50pts profit.

 

[ukdaytrader]

I still think there is massive movement to go.........the basis of this is that the US have sorted out their problems with the banking very quickly, and now will focus on employment, once the wheels are greased to the machine you can then go ahead and focus efforts elsewhere.

Europe is behind the act a little, they didn't have a huge banking problem but they did not prompt much fiscal stimulus. interest rate reductions as quickly as they should have done. I therefore think there is further downward rate reductions to go. It also looks as if the US is going to be first out, which should prompt cash flows to American equities.

Im going to hold till around 1.38 may be a mistake!

 

[GammaJammer]

You don't understand the dynamics of the risk trade yet do you?

 

[Martinghoul]

This is an on-going discussion...

Yes, the US is the first out, but, guess what, they're also the current leaders in the currency race to the bottom. Devaluation of USD suits them just fine and they're taking steps towards that more than any other economy. In particular, EUR, for a whole variety of reasons, will probably be difficult to devalue. Whether that then becomes very negative for the Eurozone economy and leads, ironically, to the weakening of the EUR remains to be seen.

BTW, you should be aware that for every strategist (such as the UBS feller) that recommends one thing, there's another one that would suggest the exact opposite. For instance, the HSBC guys are firmly holding to their long EUR view.

 

[ukdaytrader]

In the medium term over then next say 6 months, I do think that there will be strengthening of the USD against the Euro, simply because of the first out reason and mainly due to the slowness in which the ECB reacts due to the different cultures and economies operating with the Eurozone.

Eurozone still has issues around implementing fiscal policy for example change in tax rates where each country tax rate, in contrast UK and US are able to implement policies quicker during problem times....as now. Where they're in the s*** it takes them a long time to figure it out and even longer to decide what to do.

Long term you are right this then has a equalization impact in so far as exports out of the Eurozone do become cheaper.

US may favour devaulation but as main reserve currency its not going to happen for some time....and when you got pri*ks like Silvio Berlusconi running countries would you invest in that currency ?

 

[ukdaytrader]

For those that missed it there is still some room, it looks like Europe is in the doldrums