EUR/USD Thetradersclub daily analysis

29 January

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.4414

Key G7 resistance levels: 1.4240/65, 1.4300, 1.4370


Counter-trend opportunities: 1.3850
Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Today's trade suggestion:
A good thing I stayed out of the market on Friday, as the currencies experienced “typical” Friday volatility and unpredictability. The reversal we experienced earlier in the week (after the weekly support level was broken)
served well to keep us out of further long trades and we are now able to re-evaluate at the start of this week. It’s a little tricky. The direction this week is firmly short, but we are at a major 38.2% Fibonacci support level which should provoke a sharp bounce. It’s best to wait for a bigger rally before selling, with a key resistance level in the 1.4240/65 level. Watch and wait for a clear G7 reversal pattern before selling into this level, with tight stops above the reversal pattern. Initial target should be around 1.4160 (the 25% Fibonacci level today) Update: The euro continues its slide down. I wouldn’t call it unrelenting, but it’s steady. Now that 1.4000 has been broken, and we’ve had a daily close below there, it’s possible that the price is heading towards the 61.8% extension at 1.3850. There won’t be an opportunity to sell today, but if we do reach 1.3850, there’s an excellent chance to try a small counter-trend long trade if we get a clear reversal pattern. Other than that, see you next week!

Summary:
Perhaps try small counter-trend longs at 1.3850 if and when we get there!
 
01 Feb

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.4200

Key G7 resistance levels: 1.3980/1.4000, 1.4020*, 1.4060, 1.4120

Counter-trend opportunities: 1.3850

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Today's trade suggestion:
The euro continues its slide down. I wouldn’t call it unrelenting, but it’s steady. Now that 1.4000 has been broken, and we’ve had a daily close below there, the price has reached the 61.8% extension at 1.3850. There won’t be an opportunity to sell today, but if we do reach 1.3850, there’s an excellent chance to try a small counter-trend long trade if we get a clear reversal pattern. Remember that counter-trend trading is riskier, and you should only attempt this with a small position and tight stops. The target for long trades is 1.3980/1.4000 where long trades should be closed while we watch and wait for signs of reversal back to short – to go with the main trend direction. We’ll see what it looks like if and when we get there. Interesting to note that last week’s bearish candle was completely “shaven” No wick on the bottom side. Sometimes that can lead to a dramatic
reversal.

Summary:
Perhaps try small counter-trend longs at 1.3850, target around 1.4000 (or earlier if it falters). Then watch and
wait for an opportunity to sell.
 
Update 05 Feb: Well, I expected the euro to drop back from 1.4000, and it didn’t disappoint. We have had an excellent 8 days trading the euro, but it’s best to hang up the keyboard today, as it’s NFP Friday. If you MUST trade today, perhaps wait until 9AM Eastern before evaluating the impact of the news. Note that 1.3685 – 1.3650 is key support, formed by two 100% Fib extensions, and presents the best opportunity to BUY the euro if you are going to trade.
 
08 February

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.4030

Key G7 resistance levels: 1.3720/50, 1.3800, 1.3860

Counter-trend opportunities: 1.3580/1.3600

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Today's trade suggestion:
The Euro slipped further down on Friday after the jobs report, as I suspected it might. The 1.3580 level is such a key support area, that it was always likely to act as a price magnet as soon as 1.3800 was broken. This leaves the euro in an incredibly oversold position (the most dramatic since November 2008) and we are likely to get a bounce or spike low sometime soon – perhaps this week. We’re still looking to sell euros from the resistance levels overhead, but we need to be rather more cautious this week due to the factors just mentioned. Whilst on the topic of “oversold” and “bounces” it might be worth trying a small, counter-trend long trade from the vicinity of 1.3580/1.3600 (if you can get it) with stops below 1.3570. Overhead, resistance levels lie at 1.3720/50, 1.3800 and 1.3860. As always, watch and wait for a clear G7 entry signal before selling for a target of 1.3600.

Summary:
Sell on rallies to resistance levels after a clear G7 entry signal, or try tiny counter-trend longs from circa 1.3600,
stops below 1.3570.
 
Update: A decent rally from support put euro up at first resistance near 1.3820 yesterday. Price action is messy and hourly candles have been as large as 120 pips. Probably best
 
I've been sitting here watching the market
for the past few hours, wondering how to tackle
today's report :)

I think it's best to see how today ends up, and
to take another look during tomorrow's live trading.

GPB has hit the weekly reversal, so no trades until
next week.

JPY still a horrible mess...

And EUR is still short for the week, but after
yesterday's strong rally, selling might be a problem.

Let's take a look tomorrow!

Speak soon
James.
 
Weekly Trend direction: Bearish


Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3800
Key G7 resistance levels: 1.3650, 1.3720, 1.3800

Counter-trend opportunities:

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Today's trade suggestion:
Interesting situation...Last week’s weekly candle formed a “Doji” just about at the 618 retracement level (see weekly chart) and the euro is more oversold than it has been for two years. However, bottoms often take a few weeks to form properly, and negative EU sentiment might still weigh on the euro for another week or two. It’s tempting to consider the weekly direction reversed, but I’d prefer to wait for another weekly reversal candle for confirmation. Until then, and whilst below 1.3800, G7 remains bearish. Resistance levels are at 1.3650 (where we are now), 1.3720 and 1.3800. There are small signs of reversal as I’m writing this report, with an hourly “hanging man” candle at the 1.3650 resistance, the two MA’s right where we are and an overbought stochastic. Try tiny shorts for a target of circa 1.3550.

Summary:
Sell near 1.3650 (or above if it fails) target 1.3550.
 
Update Wednesday: The euro certainly sold off – but unfortunately, too far, too fast and from an “in-between” level, creating a nasty fake-out. We’re still looking to sell into rallies to between 1.3600 and 1.3650 where there could be a good G7 entry signal later in the day. Short term target 1.3500, and then lower.
 
Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3440

Key G7 support levels: 1.3600, 1.3540/70, 1.3500

Counter-trend opportunities:

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Today's trade suggestion:
Another weekly “doji” candle and an “insider” candle mean that the probabilities have shifted towards a bullish week for the euro this week, and perhaps even a medium term bottom. We shall have to wait and see. In the meantime, I’m now looking to buy dips whilst we are above the weekly reversal level at 1.3440. As I write, we are at first support at the key 1.3600 level, which also happens to be a confluence of S/R, the 38% retracement level and the 200EMA. This gives a high probability trade, but more importantly, a tight stop loss and a decent target. Look to buy here, stops below 1.3590, for a target of at least 1.3700. If support at 1.3600 fails, then I’ll be looking to buy lower down at 1.3540/70 or 1.3500. Although this is a good setup, be aware that market turning points can take a while to “solidify” and we may still get a lot of movement between 1.3600 and 1.3400 for the next week or so.

Summary:
Buy dips to support after a clear G7 signal. Short term target 1.3700.
 
Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3434

Key G7 support levels: 1.3550, 1.3500, 1.3450

Counter-trend opportunities:

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Today's trade suggestion:
After being stuck in the same range between 1.3500 and 1.3700 for over a month, there is little to add to the past few week’s analysis. I continue to be bullish on the euro after a series of weekly Doji candles, however, the longer we stay like this, the more likely a false spike lower becomes. Support below is clearly demarcated at 1.3550 (yesterday’s intermediate bottom) and 1.3500, with the weekly reversal level at 1.3450. Continue to look to buy into dips after a clear G7 entry signal, aiming for the top of the range at 1.3700’ish. Remember that ranges can often be broken falsely on the “wrong side” and euro longs should be treated with care. Keep stops tight. If we don’t rally back to the range ceiling this week, be prepared for a sudden drop below 1.3450 – perhaps with a dramatic weekly spike low somewhere below.

Summary:
Buy dips to supports after a clear G7 signal. Short term target 1.3700.
 
Update Friday: A double bottom at 1.3550 and an amble back to the top of the range at 1.3700 as expected. What happens today is probably going to define the next medium term move. A drop back means there’s a good chance of falling through the bottom of the range this month, whereas a move through the top could mean a rally to 1.4000. If you are still long from yesterday’s live trading, ratchet up your stops to just under 1.3620 and
wait for the break!
 
EUR/USD - well, well.....what do we have hear? IHS and a possibility of a break out ??? maybe ?
 

Attachments

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Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3434

Key G7 support levels: 1.3550, 1.3500, 1.3450

Counter-trend opportunities:

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Today's trade suggestion:
After being stuck in the same range between 1.3500 and 1.3700 for over a month, there is little to add to the past few week’s analysis. I continue to be bullish on the euro after a series of weekly Doji candles, however, the longer we stay like this, the more likely a false spike lower becomes. Support below is clearly demarcated at 1.3550 (yesterday’s intermediate bottom) and 1.3500, with the weekly reversal level at 1.3450. Continue to look to buy into dips after a clear G7 entry signal, aiming for the top of the range at 1.3700’ish. Remember that ranges can often be broken falsely on the “wrong side” and euro longs should be treated with care. Keep stops tight. If we
don’t rally back to the range ceiling this week, be prepared for a sudden drop below 1.3450 – perhaps with a dramatic weekly spike low somewhere below.
 
Correct Report for Monday 15th March

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish
Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3538
Key G7 support levels: 1.3680/3700, 1.3640, 1.3600
Counter-trend opportunities:

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Today's trade suggestion:
Lots of fanfare in the news as the euro rallied up to 1.3800 and the highest level in a month. BUT...we are still inside the 1.3500 – 1.3800 range which has dominated the chart picture for such a long time. So despite the excitement, we are really still no better off than we were a month ago, and we still have the 1.3800 hurdle to overcome (with a daily close above) in order to look higher. IN ANY EVENT the G7 system direction for this week is bullish and we’ll continue to look to buy into dips whilst above the new weekly reversal level at 1.3538. Support levels are now at circa 1.3700 and then 1.3640/3600. We really need to drop a little lower than the current price before considering buying, and I’ll be watching and waiting for a clear G7 entry signal at the support levels before buying. Target 1.3800 and perhaps quite a sharp rally to 1.4000 (the big kahuna)

Summary:
Buy dips to supports after a clear G7 signal. Short term target 1.3800 and then 1.4000.
 
As the weekly reversal level has finally been taken out by the
Euro, there will be no G7 setups until next week on any of the pairs.

However, ANYTHING can happen today, as it is the end of the
week, and we might get sudden dramatic reversals on any
of the pairs. Trade at your peril, BUT there could be some
interesting opportunities:

Watch for a bounce on GBP at the current 5340 level. Watch the
Euro for a dramatic spike low - the weekly break lower to a new
12 month low looks suspiciously like a potential weekly "bully"
fake breakdown. JPY is still short for the week according to
the G7 rules, and we may be topping at the current level - although
I am not interested in JPY at the moment due to the recent
price action.
 
With today being the last trading day of April,
I'm going to sit it out and resume trading next week.

If you must trade today, all three pairs are worth
BUYING.

I have attached charts for the Euro and JPY(see www.freeforex4all.com if not attached to this post), showing the
potential opportunities today. These are not G7 trades
but offer perhaps the best options for today.

Euro: buy a break above the range, or current price, stops
below 1.3220 OR wait for another "spike low" Potential target
1.3350

JPY: Buy near 94.00, stops below 93.70, OR
wait for another spike low. Potential target 94.70

Good luck and see you next week :)



P.S. Please note that the email admin@thetradersclub is now back up and running. We have 10 other accounts we manage..and did not realize this had been offline for some time now...please accept our apologies if you tried to get hold of us and we did not reply ;-(
 
Eurusd

up to now you didnt enter this market.
"buy a break above the range, or current price, stops
below 1.3220 OR wait for another "spike low" Potential target
1.3350"

"1152 EURUSD +13333 ... no top, here we go !"
 
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