AntaresScorpius
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1. Price Pattern
• A rising wedge is forming, which is usually a bearish reversal pattern.
• The price has risen steadily, but the highs are rising less than the lows → a sign of a loss of bullish momentum.
• In these cases, the greatest probability is of a downside breakout.
2. Technical Indicators
• MACD: The histogram is falling, the lines appear to be moving towards a bearish crossover → a sign of a weakening long trend.
• Stochastic: It is in the medium-high range (around 66-74), with a possible downward crossover → another sign of bearish pressure.
3. Support and Resistance
• Resistance: 1.18–1.1850 (recent highs).
• Important support: 1.14–1.1450 (lower wedge line). A break here would confirm the downside.
• If the price breaks above 1.18 with volume, it could invalidate the short scenario.
✅ Summary:
Currently, the weekly chart shows bullish weakness and prevailing short signals (rising wedge, falling MACD, falling stochastic).
The most likely scenario is a bearish correction unless the price decisively breaks above 1.18.
📉 Short Scenario (most likely)
• Short entry: upon break of the 1.1600–1.1580 support (exit from the rising wedge).
• First target: 1.1450 (key support).
• Second target: 1.1200 (old accumulation area).
• Stop loss: above 1.1820 (wedge high).
👉 Risk/reward: favorable if entered after the confirmed break of the wedge.
📈 Long Scenario (only if it invalidates the short position)
• Long entry: above 1.1850 with a weekly close.
• First target: 1.2000 (psychological resistance).
• Second target: 1.2150–1.2200 (previous all-time highs).
• Stop loss: below 1.1650 (wedge low).
👉 Only consider this if the market pushes strongly higher and breaks resistance.
🧭 Management Note
• Monitor volume carefully: a wedge breakout must be accompanied by strength.
• Use money management with a maximum of 1–2% of capital at risk per trade.
• Weekly timeframe = medium-term trade (weeks/months).
🔎 H4 Technical Analysis
1. Trendline
◦ The price is testing the bullish trendline that has held since the beginning of the month.
◦ If it breaks decisively to the downside, a deeper correction could begin.
2. MACD
◦ Lines already crossed to the downside.
◦ Rising red histogram → ongoing bearish momentum.
3. Stochastic
◦ It is in the oversold zone (<20), with a possible bullish crossover imminent.
◦ This signals a potential technical rebound in the near future, even if the trend remains weak.
4. Key Levels
◦ Immediate support: 1.1700–1.1720 (trendline zone).
◦ If it breaks: target 1.1650 and then 1.1610.
◦ Short-term resistance: 1.1800–1.1820 (relative high).
📊 H4 Operational Summary
• Short scenario (main):
◦ Entry below 1.1720 with confirmation → targets 1.1650 and 1.1610.
◦ Stop loss above 1.1800.
• Long scenario (technical rebound only):
◦ Possible rebound from 1.1720 if the trendline holds.
◦ Target 1.1800–1.1820.
◦ Stop loss below 1.1700.
👉 In practice: in the short term, the trend is bearish, but we are in a significant support zone → likely intraday rebound, while a confirmed breakout would open the door to a new short position.
• A rising wedge is forming, which is usually a bearish reversal pattern.
• The price has risen steadily, but the highs are rising less than the lows → a sign of a loss of bullish momentum.
• In these cases, the greatest probability is of a downside breakout.
2. Technical Indicators
• MACD: The histogram is falling, the lines appear to be moving towards a bearish crossover → a sign of a weakening long trend.
• Stochastic: It is in the medium-high range (around 66-74), with a possible downward crossover → another sign of bearish pressure.
3. Support and Resistance
• Resistance: 1.18–1.1850 (recent highs).
• Important support: 1.14–1.1450 (lower wedge line). A break here would confirm the downside.
• If the price breaks above 1.18 with volume, it could invalidate the short scenario.
✅ Summary:
Currently, the weekly chart shows bullish weakness and prevailing short signals (rising wedge, falling MACD, falling stochastic).
The most likely scenario is a bearish correction unless the price decisively breaks above 1.18.
📉 Short Scenario (most likely)
• Short entry: upon break of the 1.1600–1.1580 support (exit from the rising wedge).
• First target: 1.1450 (key support).
• Second target: 1.1200 (old accumulation area).
• Stop loss: above 1.1820 (wedge high).
👉 Risk/reward: favorable if entered after the confirmed break of the wedge.
📈 Long Scenario (only if it invalidates the short position)
• Long entry: above 1.1850 with a weekly close.
• First target: 1.2000 (psychological resistance).
• Second target: 1.2150–1.2200 (previous all-time highs).
• Stop loss: below 1.1650 (wedge low).
👉 Only consider this if the market pushes strongly higher and breaks resistance.
🧭 Management Note
• Monitor volume carefully: a wedge breakout must be accompanied by strength.
• Use money management with a maximum of 1–2% of capital at risk per trade.
• Weekly timeframe = medium-term trade (weeks/months).
🔎 H4 Technical Analysis
1. Trendline
◦ The price is testing the bullish trendline that has held since the beginning of the month.
◦ If it breaks decisively to the downside, a deeper correction could begin.
2. MACD
◦ Lines already crossed to the downside.
◦ Rising red histogram → ongoing bearish momentum.
3. Stochastic
◦ It is in the oversold zone (<20), with a possible bullish crossover imminent.
◦ This signals a potential technical rebound in the near future, even if the trend remains weak.
4. Key Levels
◦ Immediate support: 1.1700–1.1720 (trendline zone).
◦ If it breaks: target 1.1650 and then 1.1610.
◦ Short-term resistance: 1.1800–1.1820 (relative high).
📊 H4 Operational Summary
• Short scenario (main):
◦ Entry below 1.1720 with confirmation → targets 1.1650 and 1.1610.
◦ Stop loss above 1.1800.
• Long scenario (technical rebound only):
◦ Possible rebound from 1.1720 if the trendline holds.
◦ Target 1.1800–1.1820.
◦ Stop loss below 1.1700.
👉 In practice: in the short term, the trend is bearish, but we are in a significant support zone → likely intraday rebound, while a confirmed breakout would open the door to a new short position.