EUR post ECB

MacroBeat

Member
64 11
ECB came and went... it was expected to be a boring one BUT i was a bit surprised that Mrs Lagarde did sound a tad more upbeat than last time... in their statement they even removed the FX component which has seen the EUR rally to the highs near 1.2175 which is still the key resistance for now.... the USD has been wobbly in the last 2 days again with AUD and CAD very bid.. USD EM soft... but with the strong Phili Fed today.. US 10 year yields back up again and the USD drift has slowed down.... all in all, there are just no clear trades or trends out there BUT i am still having a USD bullish bias... as in buying USD on dip as i do not believe in the 2021 mantra of USD down... US data continues to look good.... another 1.9trln stimulus incoming in Feb 2021... so the FED is clearly done and the taper tantrum will soon return which might keep the USD from collapsing i feel... good luck
 
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guest41766

0 0
USDJPY could gain from the pick up in US yields (the reflation trade still?) without having to short the USD. BOJ were bearish on current conditions today but see future rebound in April. Will be taking a close look at JPY pairs 2moro.
 

MacroBeat

Member
64 11
USDJPY could gain from the pick up in US yields (the reflation trade still?) without having to short the USD. BOJ were bearish on current conditions today but see future rebound in April. Will be taking a close look at JPY pairs 2moro.
Yes, the strong US data did indeed lift yields and USDJPY a bit but seems 10 eyar yields stuck at 1.11 area and USDJPY already getting a bit used to it.. same time equities look soggy today... i did sell this rally in EURUSD at this 1.2175 85 pivot and thanks to weaker EU Economic projection, we just ran out of steam up there... risk generally a bit soft after the Repbulcans already said they cannot support the stimulus package in the current form and last but not least.. the news that PM Conte may call new elections has seen Italian bonds under pressure which should weigh on the EUR too BUT for now EURUSD still very stubborn... BUT risk generally lower with AUDUSD lower USDCAD higher... i m short EURUSD EURJPY and AUDUSD for now
 
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guest41766

0 0
Do you see a pickup in volatility on the horizon these ranges are well contained currently. Yesterday EURUSD range was 0.56%
 

MacroBeat

Member
64 11
Do you see a pickup in volatility on the horizon these ranges are well contained currently. Yesterday EURUSD range was 0.56%
Sadly not.... as i feel there is just no real story out there that could create a real trend... everything is on the fine margin and driven by the daily tweaks of the narrative BUT there isnt yet one big story that would really give us a real trend... 2021 will be more of a macro year i feel, hence data will matter a lot as we have to get a feel for which economy has done a good job by keeping the economy afloat and who hasnt.. and as data matters a lot this year, i feel it might take a bit of time for that to really show... it be fine on the margin right now.. ok US data, bit weaker EU data hence EURUSD topped 1.2350 and tried to break 1.2060 area.. but as things are not really sizzling hot.. that was already it for now... hence i dont have any large macro positions yet and rather trade more short term... luckily enough i have been a spot trader for 15 years in banks like UBS and MS... and then 24 years of macro trading amongst the names of Goldman macro prop desk.. which i am happy about having both experiences as this market just needs it as we often switch from day trade to macro and back again.. and right now.. ZERO overwhelming stories so keep it tight.. try to knock away a bit of money to fill the war chest for when the bigger ideas come along
 
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guest41766

0 0
I mean 0.56% on a ECB day is not fun. This central bank suppression of rates is getting out of hand. I hope for inflation to start a dilemma for the CB's
 
 
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