encumber's trading journal

encumber

Junior member
Messages
18
Likes
2
Well, here's my first trade(s) since joining the site.

VTU (Vertu Motors) Reduced to buy MACF. Sold around 30% of my holding because I wanted to buy MACF. I bought VTU in Dec 2021 at a price of 68p, and sold at a price of 62p, for a loss of around 9%. VTU is a car dealer. Operationally, net profits have been increasing at around 4.6%pa over the last 6 years. The company has also been buying back its shares at about 1%pa over that period. The valuation of VTU looks cheap, at a PE of 7, PBV 0.59, EV/EBITDA 3.75 and P/FCF of 3.7. What has me antsy is that the interest cover is 2.59, uncomfortably low. Reporting on 2 Sep, Paul Scott over at Stockopedia gave it an Amber/Green rating, saying that it issued a mild profit warning. He says that the shares are cheap. He is happy with the balance sheet due to the strong asset-backing of property. I think its ROE is a little weak, though, averaging only 8.4% over the last 5 years. So I'm reducing due to a combination of weak interest cover, low ROE and the triggering of a MACF buy point. This is despite good growth in EPS over the last decade and a cheap price.

MACF (Macfarlane). Increased holding due to a triggering of a 110p potential buy point. I orginally bought into MACF in Nov 2021 at a price of 139p. That's down 20% since purchase. 110p is approx where the share price broke out in Nov 2023 after a period of consolidation. So I reckoned that 110p was a good entry point. In August, Paul Scott did a write-up, giving it a Green rating. The company reported soft trading in May, and says the company is slightly behind expectations. He sees it as a good business that is reasonably priced. (The price I actually bought in was 112p, slightly above 110p, but included all tranastion costs, fees, spread, etc.). The average free cashflow over the last 6 years has been around 12.3p. At a price of 111p, this is a free cashflow yield of 11.1%. Very nice.

Valuations for MACF look good whatever way you cut it. PE 9.0, P/FCF 7.1, EV/EBITDA 6.11. ROE has averaged 14.5% over the last 5 years, which is really good. Stockopedia gives it a Quality score of 82, which is nice and high. Interest cover is 9.27. It's a nice safe company with good quality earnings. The dividend is over 3X covered. EPS has grown over 11% pa over the last few years. Over a 10-year period, it has been more like 12%. I view this as a good-quality growth company at a reasonable price. What more could I ask for?

MACF is a top 50 holding of BRSC (BlackRock Smaller Cos Trust). It's pretty small, mind, at around 0.9% of their portfolio. BRSC is a good source of ideas if you're thinking of investing in high-quality smaller UK companies.

MACF occasionally buy-out smaller companies. This might typically be where the owners want to retire and there is a lack of succession. The directors said that the pipeline of opportunities is good.

ASX 4497
 
Last edited:
VTU (Vertu Motors) Sold out to buy BUT. Price: 61p. As noted above, bought in Dec 2021 at 68p. That's a loss of 10.3%.

BUT (Brunner Investment Trust) bought with proceeds of VTU at 1403p. BUT invests globally, which is what I wanted. In hindsight I have been too heavily weighted in UK and that has hurt performance. I didn't want a closet Mag 7 tracker, which too many trusts seem to want to do. It is invested 48% in US, 24% in UK, 22% in Europe and 6% in Asia (Taiwan and Japan). So there's no great insight into buying, I just wanted global diversification and relative style agnosticism
 
TSTL New position at 395p. It sells disinfectants to hospitals. It has net cash. ROCE has averaged 15% over last 6 years. Revenues per share have been growing at nearly 10% pa over the last decade. The shares aren't cheap, trading at a PE of 24, with a similar P/FCF.

MGNS No position change, but their trading update today ("significantly ahead") sent shares up 16% to 3780p. I thought I'd give it a little mention seeing as I'm posting. EPS has been growing at 12% pa over the last 5 years. High returns on capital (18%), net cash and a PE of 13. Still offers good value, IMO. This is a high-quality company at a reasonable valuation.
 
FXPO New position 55.7p. It mines iron ore in Ukraine. I know, not ideal. It is a contrarian play. Shares peaked around 480p in May 2021. It's been downhill since then. PBV is 0.39, which is cheap. It has net cash but doesn't pay a dividend. Negative momentum seems to have bottomed out, and is now +34% relative to the market over 1 month. A small, risky trade by me that has the potential to double or more, assuming Russia doesn't take over the country.
 
Last edited:
Top