DOW - ES Charts 18/11 - 22/11

[ChartMan]

Not quite what I had in mind after the good performance on Friday.Key support at 8500 has gone, just and that leaves a big hole to drop through. But then there's the RS switch on RSI. Maybe that will do the biz.....

 

[ChartMan]

At least DOW and ES are telling the same story. With RSI at 30 there isn't a lot of room for much more downside. Showing the same RSI RS switch too....

 

[ChartMan]

Not easy to pick the bits out of this, but take a look at the 2000/min line and the bears clearly had the run of the day.

 

[ChartMan]

Looks like the RS switch did the biz, although it took another 100 point drop before turning round. Thing is, there is a down channel developing and that needs to resolve. Moving below 8440 will break the uptrend and move into a confirmed downtrend.

 

[ChartMan]

tricky start, but got a lot better. Triangle break with the 902 target being easily met. Nice to see the breakout at the 100MA. Note the bounce off 895 just prior to the breakout. Onwards to the ND top, failing to make and hold 905 and then the drop, losing all the day's gains. Still, a nice bag of points on the table and a divergent bottom to finish off the day.

 

[ChartMan]

Volume analysis around the triangle breakout.

 

[ChartMan]

Well, that's that sorted , for the time being at least. The down trend confirmation didn't happen. We got confirmation of the RS switch by the higher lows on RSI. The three channel line seem to be well established now and can be used as support /resistance. Bouncing off the middle channel line could take us on up tomorrow and after hours shows no decline- yet.

 

[ChartMan]

Good moves up on the 5's and interesting false breakout on the top triangle following the ND top. Given the drop in RSI and CCI and the lack in price drop confirms the up trend likely to continue.

 

[ChartMan]

Substantial gains today and by the look of the end of trading where there was just no sellers at all, we should get another rise tomorrow...... Chart comments says it all. Notice how the significant drop in the peaks on the down ticks signifies the entries for longs... the last one shown shows the peaks dropped from 6000/min to 4000/min and the price dropped too....( 1-5).
Don't forget that it is really important to have a "seconds" ticker so you can see the incremental change in the volume each 15 seconds. As a guide, 500/15 seconds is strong and 1000/15 seconds is a flyer. Look for 3 consecutive increases in volume, without being broken by an "opposite" tick count and a 15 second count on the last tick of >400.

 

[Do]

Chartman

Excellent as usual and thank you for the time and effort you put into it.

Could you tell what charting package you are using?

Thanks

Do

 

[ChartMan]

It's SierraCharts, with data feed from MyTrack.

 

[ChartMan]

Nice breakout. No warning of this, except "after hours". Neverthe less the breakout was excellent and has moved us above 8800, key resistance. A clear test at 8800 resistance followed by two retests as support. Doesn't look convincing , even though we closed at HOD, there is divergence in the last two hours. Still, 8800 will either hold, or it won't! After hours holding up.....

 

[ChartMan]

Great trading day, ending at HOD and moving on up a bit after 9pm. No clear signals as to what tomorrow may bring, except the reverse bull triangle. We had a mini one yesterday ( look back up) that delivered, and more. This one has a target of 943 if it delivers. As TA works in all time scales, I see no reason why it isn't valid. The proof of the pudding will be in the breakout beyond 937. The greater part of the day was spent chanelling between 930 and 935( broadly). One of those days that the 5's didn't provide clear support/res until later in the day.

 

[ChartMan]

Nice vol. charts showing divergent tops and bottoms. Looks like the key is that when one is divergent, the other is confirming the up coming move/change. Take the first bottom at 927. The blue up tick volume is sloping up, against a clear down slope on the down tick volume. The up tick slope continues to the first divergent top, making the odd excursion above 2K/min. whilst the down tick vol. From 18:06 til 18:36, the down tick slope started building, confirming the divergent top in the up tick vol.
Update: ES off 2 points from HOD, currently 934.

 

[ChartMan]

Didn't make 9000 oh well, next week A double top at 8870 and continued negative divergence ensured that there was no more up. Where to next week? toss a coin..... down to mid-chanel support at 8600 or solid support at 8800 and up?

 

[ChartMan]

Chuntering around 930-935 again, but going up so much on little volume could only end in tears, and so it did.
One interesting feature of the 5's and 0's, is that it is very quick and easy to calculate the main Fib. moves. Go figure it out.....

 

[ChartMan]

Volume chart......