DOW - ES Charts 11/11 - 15/11

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Down , down we go. Plenty of scope to go 8200 as there are no signs of reversal.
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Moving on down in 5's... with a small post session recovery.
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Very thin on volume today. MM's squeezing the price down out of boredom?
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
No move to 8200 so we stay in no man's land.This can develop either way.... rolling down towards 8200 or moving up above 8400.The CCI line could develop into a nice RS switch, but that would mean up from here only.....
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
A clear dislike for 895 and now 8800 is gonna prove decisive.
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
You can see the volumes for this downtrend moved in 3 phases and the 4th phase was the end, signalled by the lower volume peak. Each of the firt 3 phases produced ever higher volume peaks and as a couple of days ago, when the end of the 4th peak produced a lower volume peak, ther drop was halted.
The same was true for the rise to 894. The rise was weak anyway, with volumes only just breaking above 2000/min towards the end. The final peak in the price saw a drop in the volume. End of move. Again, the volume for the right shoulder was sandwiched between higer down tick volumes ( phase 1)
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Nice volatility today. A nice example of the news hype. Quite often on news, there is an exaggerated move, followed by a return the"the norm". A move of 200 points to the good, then 200 to the bad, finally ending up where it would have done without the news. I've said this before, - stay away from the gambling table when news is due. If you had been short on the news, getting out on Spread betting would have cost you dearly. By the time you've injested the news, the SB's price has already moved 100 + points. And you think to your self......it can't go up much more.....I'll just hang on a couple of more ticks .... been there , done that, still nursing the wounds. :( The sick bit is, just as you think, ok , I'll flip my trade and go long, you realise, too late, you just bought at the highest price and the farthest bias and you just shot yourself twice.
Stay out and you can't lose. Get caught, and you wil be punished. Trading with someone like IB will allow you to get out with far less pain, but you still have to recognise that you made a big mistake and you're going to have to suffer the loss.
After that leasson, we closed up around 50 points and we have a chance of a "W" bottom, coupled with some minor positive divergence in evidence. If it does perform, there will be a clear break over 8500, with 8700 as tops....
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Being long on the news ( and why would you have been short?) would have paid handsomely- for those that had the bottle. A good trading day , with good volatility and tradable TA. 3 slope changes, moving between the 5's and a "V" bottom all helping the descisions.
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Another bottom call on lower volume.- It's becoming quite regular. Thing is, I have to figure out why it doesn't happen every time. Or maybe it's just a case of nothing happens all the time.... some things just occur regularly. Point in question is the bottom in the early session at around 3pm. Clearly no volume decline, in fact, just the opposite. Was there an early leak in the news? There didn't seem to be any clues whatsoever that 870 was going to be the bottom.
Maybe the precusor for a bottom on lower volume is the requirement to have uptick volumes in the 2000/min + region.....
Just managing to creep above 885 after hours....
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
And so it came to pass...... a small hickup while the markets decided and then the clear break of 8500 making the "W" bottom. The longer term possibility of a H&S looks to be thwarted and if 8500 holds, we should move on up. 8550 looks to be seriously strong resistance and if that breaks, we'll fly :) Even with the opportunity of another strong Friday, I can't see it making my target of 8900 :(
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
tracking the triangle breakout..... draw the upper resistance line parallel to the lower support line.When the price touches ( if) you're at the target. In this case, negative divergence was well established, signalling the end of the move. That was followed by a 50% retrace and the formation of another triangle, setting us up nicely for tomorow.......
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
The text on the chart should tell you what's going on. It's clear that on the last bounce at 895 that the sellers had gone home. The buying volume came in slow but sure, leading to the breakout, confirmed by the pullback to the new support at 898.
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Will I ever get it right? Next week :) Good breakout on RSI triangle and another good strong Friday. Crucial 8550 went , eventually and should see us good for next week, so long as it holds......
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
50 points on offer today- ( 500 on the dow) not seen that in a long time! The move doesn't look as promising as the dow....
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Great step up on the 5's again...... Thin volume for most of the day though, it's surprising that it moved so much.....
 

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