leovirgo
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kriesau said:
A close above 11300 won't happen unless there is a BUY campaign by big boyz. Tom Hougaard's map are not scaled I guess. I think today's decline is much stronger than expected.
Looks like bulls are having a hard time here. But who knows what the weekend will bring. The market may forget what's happened after 48 hrs.
hornblower
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waiting to go long
But its 2.30 pm in the US as I write ,
and no sign of an upturn !!
But its 2.30 pm in the US as I write ,
and no sign of an upturn !!
hornblower
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no trade yet
no signal
no signal
hornblower
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I now have a buy signal
but it just not going up
sill waiting
but it just not going up
sill waiting
hornblower
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DT
I bagged 90points this afternoon , on the way down ,
so I made my money for today,
thurs was ok, made money down and up ,
its 8pm in the uk 3pm in the US ,
thinking of calling it a day ,
good luck for the last hour
p s I think you may be correct about closing around 11.200
but I have been sat at the puter a long time
good night and good luck
hornblower
I bagged 90points this afternoon , on the way down ,
so I made my money for today,
thurs was ok, made money down and up ,
its 8pm in the uk 3pm in the US ,
thinking of calling it a day ,
good luck for the last hour
p s I think you may be correct about closing around 11.200
but I have been sat at the puter a long time
good night and good luck
hornblower
macbonzo
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Today was really about one thing - $TNX yields. For us to be knocking on 5% and the market only modestly off, suggests to me that we still have a stong market.
Clearly the financials are being hit a bit and we have see some profit taking on energy stocks to boot, but, in general it looks like this market is absorbing just about anything that the bears can throw at it. Tech stocks are back again, and the Nas is catching up and hitting highs. Yesterday afternoon's action took my breath away. I really though with Crude at $68, we would end down 100+ points. Instead, between 5.30 and 7.00, we had a near vertical 80 point move up with no apparent catalyst.
It looks to me that unless oil hits about $80, it's still a case of buying the dips.
I know, its a bloody irritating remark, that trading halfwits come away with, but, the trend is your friend.
Clearly the financials are being hit a bit and we have see some profit taking on energy stocks to boot, but, in general it looks like this market is absorbing just about anything that the bears can throw at it. Tech stocks are back again, and the Nas is catching up and hitting highs. Yesterday afternoon's action took my breath away. I really though with Crude at $68, we would end down 100+ points. Instead, between 5.30 and 7.00, we had a near vertical 80 point move up with no apparent catalyst.
It looks to me that unless oil hits about $80, it's still a case of buying the dips.
I know, its a bloody irritating remark, that trading halfwits come away with, but, the trend is your friend.
DepthTangent
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Well no 11200 tonight, long next week. Goodnight.
Rates to hamper stocks as earnings roll
Friday April 7, 8:45 pm ET
By Chris Sanders (edited summary)
Friday's stock market retreat could spill over into next week as bears concentrate on interest rates and oil. BEARISH
Stocks fell on Friday as a stronger-than-expected jobs report suggested more interest-rate increases ahead, overshadowing hopes for hefty corporate profits. "The overriding influence in markets for the next period will be tied to economic information, interest rates and oil prices," said Edgar Peters, the chief investment officer and macro strategist with PanAgora Asset Management in Boston. "The macro environment will become more and more important, going forward."
U.S. crude oil prices took their direction from a surprisingly large drop in gasoline inventories this week, driving oil and related products higher for the week. In New York, crude oil futures touched a two-month high this week. "Oil prices have not been a positive for the equity market with the potential for rising inflation," said Anthony Chan, senior economist at JPMorgan Asset Management. At Friday's close, U.S. crude oil for May delivery (CLK6) settled on the New York Mercantile Exchange at $67.39 a barrel -- up 1.14 percent for the week and less than $4 below the record U.S. crude futures price of $70.85 a barrel set after Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans.
Still, earnings strength from companies like Alcoa Inc. could kick the market higher from time to time.
BULLISH
Alcoa, kicks off the first-quarter earnings season Monday with what are expected to be sharply improved net profits and stronger revenues over the year-ago period, according to analyst estimates. Alcoa is the first of the Dow industrials to report quarterly earnings. After Alcoa, conglomerate General Electric Co. will report quarterly results on Thursday before the market opens. GE results are widely watched. Not only is GE a Dow component like Alcoa, but it is so diversified that many investors view it as a proxy for the U.S. economy. "Next week, earnings numbers will probably be a positive for the market. The overriding negative, though, is going to be the outlook for interest rates," said Joe Liro, economist and market strategist at Stone & McCarthy Research Associates.
Earnings of S&P 500 companies in the first quarter are projected to rise about 11 percent over the same period a year ago. Companies in the energy and health-care sectors are expected to show the largest year-over-year earnings gains -- 48 percent and 19 percent, respectively.
Main indicators next week
[size=+0]Trade Deficit Report will be released on Wednesday. This is [/size]expected to ease off a bit to $67.50 billion in February after hitting a fresh record of $68.51 billion in January. That should create some drag on first-quarter gross domestic product but not enough to derail what most economists believe was solid growth in the quarter
Retail Sales are due Thursday. Retail performance is likely to become increasingly important for the Federal Reserve as it looks to gauge the extent of a housing-led slowdown on consumer spending. A 0.5 percent gain in March sales is forecast by economists polled by Reuters, following a 1.4 percent decline in February. Sales excluding cars also were expected to rise 0.4 percent following the previous month's 0.6 percent drop.
University of Michigan April Consumer Sentiment Index is also due on Thursday and is likely to rise to 89.0 in April, from 88.9 in March, according to the Reuters poll.
. .
Friday April 7, 8:45 pm ET
By Chris Sanders (edited summary)
Friday's stock market retreat could spill over into next week as bears concentrate on interest rates and oil. BEARISH
Stocks fell on Friday as a stronger-than-expected jobs report suggested more interest-rate increases ahead, overshadowing hopes for hefty corporate profits. "The overriding influence in markets for the next period will be tied to economic information, interest rates and oil prices," said Edgar Peters, the chief investment officer and macro strategist with PanAgora Asset Management in Boston. "The macro environment will become more and more important, going forward."
U.S. crude oil prices took their direction from a surprisingly large drop in gasoline inventories this week, driving oil and related products higher for the week. In New York, crude oil futures touched a two-month high this week. "Oil prices have not been a positive for the equity market with the potential for rising inflation," said Anthony Chan, senior economist at JPMorgan Asset Management. At Friday's close, U.S. crude oil for May delivery (CLK6) settled on the New York Mercantile Exchange at $67.39 a barrel -- up 1.14 percent for the week and less than $4 below the record U.S. crude futures price of $70.85 a barrel set after Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans.
Still, earnings strength from companies like Alcoa Inc. could kick the market higher from time to time.
BULLISH
Alcoa, kicks off the first-quarter earnings season Monday with what are expected to be sharply improved net profits and stronger revenues over the year-ago period, according to analyst estimates. Alcoa is the first of the Dow industrials to report quarterly earnings. After Alcoa, conglomerate General Electric Co. will report quarterly results on Thursday before the market opens. GE results are widely watched. Not only is GE a Dow component like Alcoa, but it is so diversified that many investors view it as a proxy for the U.S. economy. "Next week, earnings numbers will probably be a positive for the market. The overriding negative, though, is going to be the outlook for interest rates," said Joe Liro, economist and market strategist at Stone & McCarthy Research Associates.
Earnings of S&P 500 companies in the first quarter are projected to rise about 11 percent over the same period a year ago. Companies in the energy and health-care sectors are expected to show the largest year-over-year earnings gains -- 48 percent and 19 percent, respectively.
Main indicators next week
[size=+0]Trade Deficit Report will be released on Wednesday. This is [/size]expected to ease off a bit to $67.50 billion in February after hitting a fresh record of $68.51 billion in January. That should create some drag on first-quarter gross domestic product but not enough to derail what most economists believe was solid growth in the quarter
Retail Sales are due Thursday. Retail performance is likely to become increasingly important for the Federal Reserve as it looks to gauge the extent of a housing-led slowdown on consumer spending. A 0.5 percent gain in March sales is forecast by economists polled by Reuters, following a 1.4 percent decline in February. Sales excluding cars also were expected to rise 0.4 percent following the previous month's 0.6 percent drop.
University of Michigan April Consumer Sentiment Index is also due on Thursday and is likely to rise to 89.0 in April, from 88.9 in March, according to the Reuters poll.
. .
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Fed Still Focused On Inflation
Fed's Poole says inflation spike is hard to reverse
Friday April 7 WASHINGTON (Reuters)
It would be harder for the Federal Reserve to deal with a spike in inflation than a softening of growth, a key Fed policy-maker said on Friday, suggesting the central bank may want to err on the side of higher interest rates. "There are always risks on both sides. There are risks that we would stop too soon and risks we would stop too late, and what we have to do is find the best balance we can between those two risks," St. Louis Fed President William Poole said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. "My own view is that inflation is the key here because I think we have a lot of evidence that if the inflation rate starts to get away from us, that is a much harder process to reverse than if we see the economy softening, because I believe the economy would react pretty quickly and constructively to the end of the tightening ... whereas inflation is a much harder thing to stop once it gets going," Poole said.
Poole, who is not a voting member of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee under this year's rotation, said he believes the economy is on a very solid track -- with signs of both tightness and slack in capacity. "As long as the inflation rate stays where it is, there is no reason not to have the economy continue to grow. I think there are pockets of tightness in both the physical capacity and the labor market, but there are a lot of other places where there's a lot of excess capacity, so I think the economy is on a good solid course and I don't see any reason in my own view to say we're in any sort of difficult situation," Poole said. "I think that the market is reading the current numbers in a very sensible way and what I think we need to pay attention to are not little nuances around the current numbers but rather the bigger things that may come along and surprise us," he added.
Fed's Poole says inflation spike is hard to reverse
Friday April 7 WASHINGTON (Reuters)
It would be harder for the Federal Reserve to deal with a spike in inflation than a softening of growth, a key Fed policy-maker said on Friday, suggesting the central bank may want to err on the side of higher interest rates. "There are always risks on both sides. There are risks that we would stop too soon and risks we would stop too late, and what we have to do is find the best balance we can between those two risks," St. Louis Fed President William Poole said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. "My own view is that inflation is the key here because I think we have a lot of evidence that if the inflation rate starts to get away from us, that is a much harder process to reverse than if we see the economy softening, because I believe the economy would react pretty quickly and constructively to the end of the tightening ... whereas inflation is a much harder thing to stop once it gets going," Poole said.
Poole, who is not a voting member of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee under this year's rotation, said he believes the economy is on a very solid track -- with signs of both tightness and slack in capacity. "As long as the inflation rate stays where it is, there is no reason not to have the economy continue to grow. I think there are pockets of tightness in both the physical capacity and the labor market, but there are a lot of other places where there's a lot of excess capacity, so I think the economy is on a good solid course and I don't see any reason in my own view to say we're in any sort of difficult situation," Poole said. "I think that the market is reading the current numbers in a very sensible way and what I think we need to pay attention to are not little nuances around the current numbers but rather the bigger things that may come along and surprise us," he added.
Oil up 1.1% this morning at $68.17.
Gold up 1.5% to $609 - a record level since Bush came to office !
At 10.00am there were 18 gains and 11 declines. Gainers led by Exxon with support from Alcoa and Boeing. After leading the way for most of last week, on a small cap rally, tech stocks are currently looking a little weaker.
It's awful quiet - could be the precursor to a big move on the Dow this week !
Gold up 1.5% to $609 - a record level since Bush came to office !
At 10.00am there were 18 gains and 11 declines. Gainers led by Exxon with support from Alcoa and Boeing. After leading the way for most of last week, on a small cap rally, tech stocks are currently looking a little weaker.
It's awful quiet - could be the precursor to a big move on the Dow this week !
hornblower
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poor day today , made a few points on the way up ,
now its running flat
now its running flat
Racer
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-- Crude-oil futures rose above $68 a barrel Monday, to their highest level in more than nine weeks, as a report that the U.S. might attack Iran's nuclear-research facilities ignited concern that oil output at the world's fourth-largest producer might be interrupted.
hornblower
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I thought that when oil went up , to all time highs
the dow went down ?
the dow went down ?
Well everyone interprets the same data differently. If oil rises in price then this could be inflationery. However the other side of the same coin is that if it gradually slows consumer spending then the Fed may end the rate hikes earlier. A typical example of bad news is good news and good news is bad news !hornblower said:
Oil now $68.50 and Gold at $700. I think that we will see a major move in the markets very soon (over the next few days) and IMHO it's 60/40 in favour of a significant correction down through 11000 compared to a major rally up to 11500.
But then of course I could be wrong........:cheesy:
Racer
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- After several years of low interest rates and ample liquidity, storm clouds are developing over global financial markets, according to a new report from the International Monetary Fund.
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Sto...D80-44A4-B5B8-047C6D5D42E1}&siteid=mktw&dist=
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Sto...D80-44A4-B5B8-047C6D5D42E1}&siteid=mktw&dist=
DepthTangent
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Well lets face it, we are at a peak. However what one must do as ever, is calculate the precise peak. Is it wise to hold longs into a head on freight train that will surely manifest in the very near future ? Is it not a more prudent strategy to merely sit by and wait for the gravy train (assuming your brokers will let you short when it happens)? I guess if you can predict the most likely day for the bear market to commence (which is a form of divination), then you can still go long until that day arrives, that is the strategy of a very confident and knowledgeable trader.
Market fundamentals are at their respective sustainable limits everywhere you look. A transfer of "money" is shifting into metals as we speak, are these people frightened of a potential sudden rise in inflation ? Does the Fed have any tricks up their sleeves in addition to printing money to "pay" for the interest payments on bonds issued to account for the trade deficit which subsequently funds the war on terror, currently at 41% of GDP ? and thus creating that very inflation that would send foreign assets fleeing over to Europe and China and creating a very sad scenario for the land mass that is currently identified as the United States ?
don_h as the market is always in a state of flux, and the psychology behind the markets is human greed, I will speculate that the price of crude has reached a temporary top at 70$, thus allowing the bullish Dow traders to have a go at the all time high. This scenario would fit in quite nicely with your inverse correlation between the Dow and Crude, but only if Crude has reached a temporary peak at 70$. Roll on May !
Retrospective analysis: Crude rose over 75$, didnt stop the Dow.
Market fundamentals are at their respective sustainable limits everywhere you look. A transfer of "money" is shifting into metals as we speak, are these people frightened of a potential sudden rise in inflation ? Does the Fed have any tricks up their sleeves in addition to printing money to "pay" for the interest payments on bonds issued to account for the trade deficit which subsequently funds the war on terror, currently at 41% of GDP ? and thus creating that very inflation that would send foreign assets fleeing over to Europe and China and creating a very sad scenario for the land mass that is currently identified as the United States ?
don_h as the market is always in a state of flux, and the psychology behind the markets is human greed, I will speculate that the price of crude has reached a temporary top at 70$, thus allowing the bullish Dow traders to have a go at the all time high. This scenario would fit in quite nicely with your inverse correlation between the Dow and Crude, but only if Crude has reached a temporary peak at 70$. Roll on May !
Retrospective analysis: Crude rose over 75$, didnt stop the Dow.
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