Dollar Under Pressure After Weak NFP, Gold Surges to $4,380, Oil Recovers as Markets Await US CPI

[RichieVo]

Date: August 11, 2026

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Executive Summary​

The US dollar remains under pressure after July's NFP report unexpectedly showed a decline of 23,000 jobs (vs. +80,000 expected), pushing Fed rate hike probabilities down to 44%. Gold surged over 7% for the week, breaking above key resistance levels. Oil recovered above $81 as Middle East uncertainty persists. Markets now turn their attention to Wednesday's US CPI data, which will set the direction for the week ahead.

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US Dollar – Weak NFP Weighs​

DXY trades near 99.60-99.80, hitting a two-month low of 99.39. July NFP unexpectedly declined by 23,000 (vs. +80,000 expected), reducing September Fed hike odds from 57% to 44%. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 2bps to 4.649%.
Key levels: Support 99.39–99.00; Resistance 100.00–100.06.
Outlook: Bearish below 100.00. CPI on Wednesday will set the direction.

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USD/JPY – Recovery Continues​

USD/JPY recovered to 159.45, retracing over half of the post-intervention drop from 164 to 155.22. The intervention bought time but did not change the structural trend. The 160.00 level remains a psychological barrier.
Key levels: Support 157.00–155.22; Resistance 160.00–162.00.
Outlook: Neutral. Intervention risk remains elevated.

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WTI Crude – Recovers Above $81​

WTI crude rose to $81.30/bbl, marking its third consecutive day of gains. Trump rejected Iran's war reparations demands, while Houthi attacks on Saudi refineries and an ADNOC vessel in the Strait of Hormuz kept supply risks elevated. The outlook remains highly uncertain.
Key levels: Support $77.00–$75.54; Resistance $85.11–$86.00.
Outlook: Volatile. Watch geopolitical headlines closely.

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Gold – Surges to $4,380 on Weak NFP​

Gold traded at $4,380/oz, up over 7% for the week – its strongest weekly gain since January. Weak NFP data reduced Fed hike odds, providing a powerful tailwind. RSI at 65.31 (highest since January). Next target: $4,400-$4,510.
Key levels: Support $4,300–$4,250–$4,200; Resistance $4,400–$4,495/$4,510.
Outlook: Bullish above $4,300. Targeting $4,400–$4,510.

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ASX200 – Pulls Back from Highs​

ASX200 fell 0.3% to 9,233, its second consecutive decline. Westpac (-5.4%) dragged the financial sector on concerns over property credit risk. Markets are awaiting the RBA interest rate decision.
Key levels: Support 9,200–9,040; Resistance 9,302.
Outlook: Short-term pullback. Awaiting RBA.

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Nikkei225 – Rallies 2.08%​

Nikkei225 rose 2.08% to 66,970, approaching a 4-week high. Semiconductors and AI stocks led the rally (Fujikura +7.62%, Recruit +22.79%). Sentiment was supported by weak US NFP data, which reduced Fed hike expectations.
Key levels: Support 66,000–65,000; Resistance 67,500–68,000.
Outlook: Bullish short-term but watch for overbought conditions.

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Key Events This Week​

• Today: RBA Interest Rate Decision (Australia)
• Wednesday: US CPI – the main event
• Thursday: US PPI, Initial Jobless Claims
• Friday: US Retail Sales, Consumer Sentiment

CPI data will set the direction for USD, gold, and the broader market.

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Currency Pairs – Key Levels​

• EUR/USD: 1.1530–1.1580 – Support 1.1500–1.1470; Resistance 1.1580–1.1600–1.1620
• GBP/USD: 1.3480–1.3509 – Support 1.3400–1.3300; Resistance 1.3500–1.3600
• AUD/USD: 0.7040–0.7070 – Support 0.7000–0.6925; Resistance 0.7070–0.7100–0.7180

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• DXY: Bearish below 100, awaiting CPI
• Gold: Bullish above $4,300, targeting $4,400–$4,510
• Oil: Volatile, geopolitical-driven
• USD/JPY: Neutral, intervention risk elevated
• ASX200: Pullback from highs, awaiting RBA
• Nikkei225: Bullish, AI/tech-driven