Dollar Softens, Gold Holds $4,000, Oil Volatile as Markets Await US Jobs Data

[RichieVo]

July 1, 2026

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US Dollar – Pullback or Pause?​

The US Dollar Index (DXY) eased to 101.11, down for three consecutive sessions, as expectations for further Fed tightening softened. Swaps now price less than 20 basis points of additional tightening by September. However, the dollar remains near 13‑month highs, with long positions at $36.4 billion – the highest since 2019.
Key levels: Support at 100.80-100.44-100.00; resistance at 101.39-101.80-102.00.
Outlook: Bullish above 100.00. A break below 100.44 could signal deeper correction.

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Gold – Testing Critical $4,000 Level​

Gold is trading near $4,005/oz, pressured by a strong dollar and rate expectations. Renewed US‑Iran tensions (missile attacks on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain) supported safe‑haven demand but failed to lift gold significantly.
Key levels: Support at $4,000-$3,959-$3,900; resistance at $4,044-$4,097-$4,100.
Outlook: Bearish below $4,044. A break below $3,959 could trigger a sell‑off toward $3,900.

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Oil – Geopolitical Risks Return​

WTI crude is trading near $69.64/bbl. Iran's missile attacks on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain raised supply concerns, but gains were capped by recovering Gulf exports (~75% of pre‑war levels). Technical talks between US and Iran are expected in Doha.
Key levels: Support at $68.80-$67.00-$65.00; resistance at $72.27-$73.08.
Outlook: Neutral to bearish below $72.27. Watch for geopolitical headlines.

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ASX200 – Pullback Continues​

The ASX200 fell 0.5% to 8,779, ending a two‑day winning streak. Healthcare (+1.02%) and consumer staples (+1.29%) led, while materials (-1.87%) and financials (-1.45%) weighed.
Key levels: Support at 8,730-8,750; resistance at 8,790-8,800.
Outlook: Neutral. Awaiting catalysts from US jobs data.

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Hang Seng – Tech Outperforms​

The Hang Seng fell 0.6% to 22,881, its weakest month of the year (-9.1% in June). Semiconductors surged (SMIC +9.56%, Hua Hong +33.4%), while food and property sectors lagged.
Key levels: Support at 22,518; resistance at 23,100-23,484.
Outlook: Bearish below 23,100. Watch for a break below 22,518.

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Currency Pairs – Key Levels​

• AUD/USD: 0.6910 – support at 0.6862-0.6833.
• GBP/USD: 1.3245 – resistance at 1.3290-1.3309.
• USD/JPY: 162.75 – intervention risk. Resistance at 163.00-164.00.
• EUR/USD: 1.1410 – support at 1.1400-1.1324.

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Key Data This Week​

• US ADP Employment (July 1) – preview for NFP
• US JOLTS Job Openings (July 1)
• EU HICP Inflation (July 1)
• US Nonfarm Payrolls (July 2) – the main event
• US Initial Jobless Claims (July 2)
• EU Services PMI (July 3)

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Three narratives driving markets:

1. Hawkish Fed – supporting the dollar.
2. Geopolitical risks – keeping oil and gold volatile.
3. US jobs data – the key catalyst this week.

• Gold: Bearish below $4,044. Watch $4,000 support.
• Oil: Range‑bound with downside bias.
• Dollar: Bullish above 100.00. Watch for pullback.
• ASX200: Neutral. Awaiting catalyst.
• Hang Seng: Bearish below 23,100.