Dollar Plunges Below 100, Gold Jumps to $4,100, Oil Holds $82, BoJ in Focus

[RichieVo]

Date: July 31, 2026

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US Dollar – Breaks Below 100​

DXY tumbled below 100.00, hitting its lowest since June 17. The Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75% but three FOMC members dissented, wanting a 25bp hike. Markets questioned whether the Fed is hawkish enough to fight inflation, triggering broad USD selling.
Key levels: Support 99.49–99.00; Resistance 100.50–101.00.
Outlook: Bearish below 100.00. BoJ decision and US data in focus.

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Gold – Surges Above $4,100​

Gold trades above $4,100/oz, supported by a weaker dollar and escalating US-Iran tensions. Iran launched missiles at US bases in Jordan, with the US striking back. September Fed hike expectations (~60%) could cap upside.
Key levels: Support $4,000–$3,996; Resistance $4,116–$4,166–$4,200.
Outlook: Bullish above $4,000. Break above $4,166 targets $4,200.

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Oil – Range-Bound Around $82-83​

WTI trades near $82.50, easing after a 6.6% rally. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz improved, with Qatar resuming LNG exports. High Chinese crude inventories continue to weigh.
Key levels: Support $80.00–$79.48; Resistance $85.00–$88.13.
Outlook: Neutral. Oil remains headline-driven.

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ASX200 – Pulls Back from 5-Month High​

ASX200 fell 0.8% to 8,968, ending a 3-day winning streak. Profit-taking emerged after the Fed decision and escalating US-Iran tensions.
Key levels: Support 8,900–8,840–8,700; Resistance 9,086–9,100.
Outlook: Neutral to bearish. Needs to hold 8,900.

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NZX50 – Profit-Taking After Record Highs​

NZX50 dropped 1.5% to 13,763 after three straight record highs. Healthcare (Ryman -4.3%, Fisher -2.4%) and consumer staples (A2 Milk -3.4%) led declines.
Key levels: Support 13,700–13,600; Resistance 13,830.
Outlook: Neutral. Watch China PMI today.

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Tech Earnings Recap​

Tech stocks mixed after earnings: Meta (META.O) plunged 8.3% pre-market as Q2 free cash flow dropped 91%. Microsoft (MSFT.O) jumped 7% on strong cloud revenue beat. Qualcomm (QCOM.O) and Arm (ARM.O) fell 5.7% and 7.2%.

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Currency Pairs – Key Levels​

• EUR/USD: 1.1510–1.1535 – Support 1.1483–1.1434; Resistance 1.1567–1.1600
• GBP/USD: 1.3453–1.3460 – Support 1.3400–1.3387; Resistance 1.3500–1.3550
• AUD/USD: 0.7015–0.7020 – Support 0.6960–0.6922; Resistance 0.7052–0.7100
• USD/JPY: 159.75–160.00 – Support 157.98–155.04; Resistance 164.00–165.00

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Key Events Today​

• BoJ Interest Rate Decision – expected to hold at 1.0%
• China PMI – manufacturing data, key for Asia sentiment
• US Michigan Consumer Sentiment – consumer confidence

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• DXY: Bearish below 100.00
• Gold: Bullish above $4,000
• Oil: Neutral, range-bound $80-85
• ASX200: Pulling back, watch 8,900 support
• AUD/USD: Awaiting RBA and BoJ signals