Dollar Hits 2-Month Low Below 99.60, Gold Corrects to $4,350, Oil Surges to $84, ASX Holds 9,070

[RichieVo]

Date: August 19, 2026

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Executive Summary​

The US dollar tumbled to a two-month low of 99.30 after weak retail sales data pushed September Fed hike odds down to 30.6%. Gold corrected to $4,350/oz as global bond yields surged, while oil rose 3% to $84/bbl amid escalating US-Iran tensions. The ASX200 ended flat at 9,070, and the Shanghai Composite approached the key 4,000 level. All eyes now turn to tonight's FOMC minutes for directional clues.

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US Dollar – Hits 2-Month Low​

DXY trades near 99.60, having hit 99.30 – its lowest level in two months. US retail sales fell 0.6% month-on-month in July, the first decline in nine months. September Fed hike odds dropped from 52.2% to just 30.6%. DXY sits below both the 9-day (99.79) and 20-day (100.25) moving averages.
Key levels: Support 99.30–99.00; Resistance 99.79–100.25.
Outlook: Bearish short-term. FOMC minutes tonight will set direction.

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WTI Crude – Surges to $84​

WTI crude rose over 3% to trade above $84/bbl. US-Iran tensions escalated as Trump called on Iran to surrender and threatened to bomb Oman if it interfered. Support at $81.69 (Bollinger midline), resistance at $85.00 and $86.21 (100-day MA).
Key levels: Support $81.69–$80.00; Resistance $85.00–$86.21.
Outlook: Bullish short-term. Watch geopolitical headlines.

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Gold – Corrects to $4,350​

Gold trades near $4,350/oz, pulling back from $4,450 as global bond yields surged to multi-year highs on concerns over government spending and persistent inflation. However, expectations of a more dovish Fed continue to support the metal. Support at $4,300 (psychological) and $4,211 (Bollinger midline).
Key levels: Support $4,300–$4,211; Resistance $4,450–$4,500.
Outlook: Short-term correction. Needs to hold $4,300.

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USD/JPY – Heading Toward 160​

USD/JPY trades near 159.70, approaching the key 160 level. The BoJ is increasingly expected to hike rates in September to support the yen. Japan's government's plan to cut food consumption tax to 1% has raised concerns over fiscal deficits.
Key levels: Support 158.50–158.22; Resistance 160.00.
Outlook: Neutral. Intervention risk elevated.

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ASX200 – Holds 9,070​

The ASX200 ended flat at 9,070 after four consecutive days of losses. CSL surged 17.25% on strong earnings, while banks (-1.1%) and consumer staples (-1.16%) weighed on the index. Range-bound between 9,000-9,140.
Key levels: Support 9,000; Resistance 9,140.
Outlook: Neutral, range-bound.

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Shanghai Composite – Approaches 4,000​

The Shanghai Composite rose 0.19% to 3,990, approaching the key 4,000 level. Premier Li Qiang called for stronger measures to achieve economic growth targets. Capital rotated into defensive sectors including agriculture and energy.
Key levels: Support 3,950; Resistance 4,010.
Outlook: Bullish short-term. Needs to break 4,010.

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Key Events Today – IMPORTANT​

Time (AEST)	Event	Notes
04:00 (Aug 20)	FOMC Minutes	Key Fed policy clues
22:30 (Aug 19)	US Crude Oil Inventories	Weekly EIA data

Currency Pairs – Key Levels

• EUR/USD: 1.1562–1.1600 – Support 1.1500–1.1498; Resistance 1.1600–1.1629–1.1700
• GBP/USD: 1.3530–1.3571 – Support 1.3500; Resistance 1.3600–1.3658
• AUD/USD: 0.7078–0.7090 – Support 0.7079–0.7062; Resistance 0.7149–0.7200
• USD/JPY: 159.70–159.75 – Support 158.50–158.22; Resistance 160.00–160.88

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• DXY: Bearish below 99.80
• Gold: Correcting from highs, support at $4,300
• Oil: Bullish, geopolitical-driven
• USD/JPY: Approaching 160, intervention risk high
• ASX200: Range-bound 9,000-9,140
• Shanghai: Approaching 4,000 resistance