Dollar at 13‑Month High, Gold Bounces from $3,959, Oil Recovers – Week Ahead in Focus

[RichieVo]

June 29, 2026

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US Dollar – 13‑Month High, Awaiting Jobs Data​

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near 101.40-101.80, its highest level in over a year. Markets are pricing in an 80% probability of a December rate hike. RSI at 72.48 is approaching overbought territory.
Key levels: Support at 101.00-100.94; resistance at 101.80-102.00-102.69.
Outlook: Bullish above 101.00. This week's jobs data will be key.

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Gold – Bounced from $3,959, Testing $4,150​

Gold rebounded to $4,084 after hitting a seven‑month low of $3,959. PCE data met expectations, easing rate hike fears. The metal needs to break $4,150 to confirm a reversal.
Key levels: Support at $4,000-$3,959-$3,900; resistance at $4,150-$4,220-$4,249.
Outlook: Neutral to bearish below $4,150. A break above $4,150 could open $4,220.

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Oil – Recovery from $68.80​

WTI crude rebounded to $70.00 after touching $68.80. Fresh tensions in the Strait of Hormuz (ship attack) supported prices. Oversold conditions triggered a bounce.
Key levels: Support at $68.80-$67.00-$65.00; resistance at $73.05-$74.27.
Outlook: Oversold bounce. Sell rallies near $73-74.

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ASX200 – Falls to 8,749​

Strong Australian employment data reinforced RBA hawkish expectations. Healthcare (+2.5%) and consumer (+2.1%) led, but energy (-2.5%) and materials (-2.3%) weighed.
Key levels: Support at 8,650-8,640; resistance at 8,775-8,800.
Outlook: Bearish below 8,775. Watch 8,640 support.

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Dow Jones – Mixed, Tech Weak​

Dow closed at 51,876 (-0.09%). Nasdaq fell for 5th consecutive session. OpenAI IPO delay triggered AI and semiconductor sell‑off.
Key levels: Support at 51,370; resistance at 52,286.
Outlook: Range‑bound. Tech weakness could continue.

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Currency Pairs – Key Levels​

• AUD/USD: 0.6882 – support at 0.6859-0.6833.
• GBP/USD: 1.3184 – UK political uncertainty. Support at 1.3132-1.3100.
• USD/JPY: 161.90 – intervention risk. Resistance at 162.00-163.50.
• EUR/USD: 1.1370 – support at 1.1300-1.1210.

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Week Ahead – Key Data​

• Australia CPI (May) – key for RBA policy
• US Nonfarm Payrolls (June) – Fed's next move
• US ISM Manufacturing PMI
• Fed Minutes – policy clues
• US Jobless Claims

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Four narratives driving markets:

1. Hawkish Fed – supporting the dollar.
2. US‑Iran tensions – supporting oil.
3. UK political uncertainty – weighing on sterling.
4. Tech sell‑off – weighing on Nasdaq.

• Gold: Neutral below $4,150. Break above = bullish.
• Oil: Oversold bounce. Sell rallies.
• Dollar: Bullish above 101.00.
• ASX200: Bearish below 8,775.