Do you have an "edge" in your trading?

If you don't quite understand edge - would anyone here put up $1000 for the following ?

You put up $1000
I pick a ball out of a bag. 85 balls are red, 15 balls are blue.
If you get a black ball I give you your $1000 plus 3%.
If you get a red ball I keep the $1000.

Who has the edge? Me or you?

Depends on whether the bag is transparent :whistling
 
Yes it's called insider trading and it's what most hedge funds are about if you believe the news.
 
Very clever. Of course a blind pick would yield a winner 85% of the time (if I'd got the bloody colours right).

Do trading equivalents of looking inside the bag exist?

Trading on yet to be publicised information, frontrunning order.
 
What happens if one guy does research & find red paint feels sticker than blue?

You play the game with 100 people & this guy is one of them. The house still wins, everyone else gets hosed except this guy.

Then say this guy sold his edge to the other 99 guys. end result house stops the game, nobody makes any money.

;-)
 
What if 99% of the people who were able to play the game were part of a team that made the balls and the paint and knew everything there was to know about balls and paint?
 
What happens if one guy does research & find red paint feels sticker than blue?

You play the game with 100 people & this guy is one of them. The house still wins, everyone else gets hosed except this guy.

Then say this guy sold his edge to the other 99 guys. end result house stops the game, nobody makes any money.

;-)

House replaces red balls for some other colour that is less sticky than blue. House recoups losses.
 
Very clever. Of course a blind pick would yield a winner 85% of the time (if I'd got the bloody colours right).

Do trading equivalents of looking inside the bag exist?

HFT is exactly that.
Available to the big boys only if they pony up enough bribe money.

Peter
 
lousy edge !

of course someone could take advantage of the foreign exchange rate , for example :

GBP/AUD if you trade it in a GBP forex account your winnings and losses will be converted to your currency , of course your trades should be in the short side only : GBP/AUD now is 1.56 if u short 1 lot here and the pair went to 1.71 your loss is 1500 + spread =15050 AUD dollars convert to pounds at 1.71 = 8800 pounds , in the other hand if the pair went to 1.42 your profit is 14950 convert to pounds at 1.42 = 10528 pounds plus the interest gained . even the pair moved the same distance your profits is more than your losses , not to mention u gain interest on this pair when u r short plus the current trend is down . Of course this is not a real edge and it is not risk free but the exchange rate is in your side cuz your living is in pounds ...
 
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You don't need an edge, unless you're a dreamer / fraud / etc who thinks he's trading against someone because there has to be someone on the other side of the trade, or who thinks that trading is a "zero sum" game. You are not and it isn't - plenty of people who show a net loss in their trading win in the markets.

Talking about "edge" is just a distraction in my opinion.
 
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