Are the markets probable? They have to be! Or there would be no point to them! And they would not exist! Speculation about probability are what the markets are about! The markets were not formed around 5K merchants chancing thier arm (like myself), only joking about the bit in brackets! They were formed by level headed professionals. You have to understand the markets for what they are, they are a tool within themselves, a tool for professionals (hedging PROBABLE LOSS). Are the markets a negative concept? The markets convey what we think may happen. P/V trading hits the spot, or so to speak. Try it. Rude