Diary of a swing spread better

[hungvir]

Silly mistake

I've been making silly mistakes for the last few days.

I traded the DOW and the FTSE with the aim to close any position within the day, but I still bought the future ones with the spreads at around 5-6 points. I changed the time horizon but not the habit of buying futures.

The daily ones are obviously better.

 

[Splitlink]

I've been making silly mistakes for the last few days.

I traded the DOW and the FTSE with the aim to close any position within the day, but I still bought the future ones with the spreads at around 5-6 points. I changed the time horizon but not the habit of buying futures.

The daily ones are obviously better.

Hung, you are quiet. Are you OK?

Today I opened long BARC but, at lunch time began to have funny feelings about BP so I closed it for 1.7 points profit. A mistake, because it closed firmer, 5 points higher. Still, so did SN and BARC both close higher so must not complain.

Split

 

[hungvir]

I've been a bit busy with the kids and work. But still managed to lose a bit on shorting the DOW I refused to take a small profit (about 30) which turned into a 100 quid plus loss.

Still have short positions on the DOW, though. Stop loss at 11100.

Well done on SN and BARC.

Have a good weekend! I am still at work and will be until about 2AM

Later,

Hung

 

[hungvir]

By the way, I realise 'planning the trade and trade the plan' is much easier said than done. When I sit in front of a computer, I am a different person

 

[hungvir]

Found it

Not a recipe for get rich quick, of course.

As I am shorting the DOW. I've been looking for reasons to believe that the market will go down on Monday. It does not look promising.

But here's at least something - 'US cinema suffers year of slump'.

Just to show that we would go any length to protect our view about the market. And we know how absurd this is.

Stop loss for the DOW position is at 11100. I think I'll be stopped out in the first half hour of trading but then it will all go my way from there.

At least three times in the last few weeks, I did not follow the book to move stop loss to break even and had let some winning positions to become losing ones.

Knowledge is one thing. And something you can buy. Don't try to do it with experience.

 

[hungvir]

More than 200 points in three days

AZN, a short candidate just more than a week ago, has shot up more than 200 points in the last three trading days.

Not sure what news's driven the rise.

I have started to feel that to base decisions purely on charts regardless of the news flow may not be such a good idea after all.

 

[hungvir]

Unhappy bear

With short positions on both Reurters and the DOW, I am a unhappy bear. Both seem to head up. RTR does not bother me much but the DOW does.

 

[Lightning McQueen]

AZN, a short candidate just more than a week ago, has shot up more than 200 points in the last three trading days.

Not sure what news's driven the rise.

I have started to feel that to base decisions purely on charts regardless of the news flow may not be such a good idea after all.

Hi hungvir
maybe you shouldn't dismiss what charts are trying to tell you so readily.

In the chart that hopefully will upload ok you will see that there was a change of trend on 20/2/06 which was forecast by the AC Oscillator histogram on 15/2/06 changing from red to green and trade entry confirmed on 22/2/06 when TRIX2 histogram changed from red to blue.

I hope this helps you view charts from a different perspective as every ones take on them are probably very different

keep up your excellent diary

 

[Splitlink]

AZN, a short candidate just more than a week ago, has shot up more than 200 points in the last three trading days.

Not sure what news's driven the rise.

I have started to feel that to base decisions purely on charts regardless of the news flow may not be such a good idea after all.

I'm not sure whether indices have much in the news to affect them one way or another and I am convinced that the press knows just as much as you do! If the markets are in a strong up or downtrend then, perhaps, you should be going with it, instead of trying to spot the turn. My figure for the DOW to be in a down trend is 10500- but mjy figure is as good as yours, too!

You, earlier, put your stop at 11100. Perhaps you should stay with that for the time being.

There is more reason for arguing that company shares may react to news, although my gap loss of DMGT, a few weeks ago, was due to an overnight management decision and did not hit the press until the morning, so I could have done nothing.

Good trading, Split

 

[hungvir]

Hi Split and Don_h,

Interesting view and chart. Very much appreciate them.

I am very anxious to get out of my DOW position now. In the long run, it can well go down to 10500 but who can say for sure. Already put in a limit buy order at 11065 as I trust that there'll be a dip at some point this afternoon for me to get out and for other to join the party.

Later,

Hung

 

[hungvir]

As I predicted, I was stopped out of the DOW position, then it went down to 11060, 15 points below where I shorted it.

It did puzzle me. Should I have raised my stop loss to 11120? Was a 25 point stop loss for the DOW too tight?! Because had it been a 50 point one, the trade would have been a winning trade.

Anyway, I've decided to have a break then come back to trade with smaller stakes. I should have taken a break after my first series of winning trades after all. Now it's happening after a series of losing ones. The history of the last few trades makes a grim reading. I expect losses along the way, but the way they came about made me rethink the way I trade.

Will think about maximum stop loss in terms of points and pounds while on 'holiday' from trading.

 

[Splitlink]

Still holding SN and BARC. They both cancelled each other out, 7 points each way.

Split

 

[hungvir]

Hi hungvir
maybe you shouldn't dismiss what charts are trying to tell you so readily.

In the chart that hopefully will upload ok you will see that there was a change of trend on 20/2/06 which was forecast by the AC Oscillator histogram on 15/2/06 changing from red to green and trade entry confirmed on 22/2/06 when TRIX2 histogram changed from red to blue.

I hope this helps you view charts from a different perspective as every ones take on them are probably very different

keep up your excellent diary

Hi don_h,

What software programme are you using by the way? I am still relying on ADVFN 100 per cent for data and chart.

Thanks,

Hung

 

[hungvir]

Still holding SN and BARC. They both cancelled each other out, 7 points each way.

Split

I can see you're having a ''quiet life'', Split It's been a bit turbulent for me. The good thing is I've learnt a lot about trading and about myself.

 

[Lightning McQueen]

Hi don_h,

What software programme are you using by the way? I am still relying on ADVFN 100 per cent for data and chart.

Thanks,

Hung

Hi hungver

metastock pro and TS2000i for charting
yahoo and quote.com via hquote pro for data

it is my goal to swing trade the dow via spread betting I am still learning and am following this thread with interest

 

[hungvir]

Thanks!

TS2000 must be very good. They sent me a CD to try some years back but just when I had to stop trading.

The DOW has been very volatile lately. Lots of movement within a day.

Good talking to you,

Hung

 

[hungvir]

Shorting the DOW

Can't resist and went short the DOW. If it goes about 11165, I'll close the position. The risk is 10 points, reward about 30 or more.

 

[hungvir]

All market makers seem to be asleep. The market does not move much. Four pounds in profit now. Will take it when it's more than 15.

 

[hungvir]

It's getting late and I don't want to hold a position over night. Took 10 pound profit. I may go down 5 or 10 points more. But it may as well go up. Were my bet size 5000, I would have profited 20,000 quids in 20 minutes or so. But no, it was just a grand total of 2 pounds. Of course, I could have lost 20,000.

 

[hungvir]

It turned out I got out at just the right time. Not much movement after that.

Yesterday I lost seven times what I won today. Just because I went upstairs for a quick bath. Well the real reason was my wife needed to use the computer.