Deltastock Daily FX Analysis

[Deltastock]

May 7, 2010
Current level - 1.2682

EUR/USD is in a downtrend, after peaking at 1.5146 (Nov.25,2009). Technical indicators are descending, and trading is situated below the 50- and 200-Day SMA, currently projected at 1.3458 and 1.4206.

Yesterday's massive sell-off bottomed far below our reversal target at 1.2650, but it is already confirmed, that it reversed at 1.2520. The downtrend from 1.3360 is already over, so currently a consolidation is underway, that should target 1.2801 and later on 1.2910 resistance area. The intraday bias is positive for 1.2801 with a risk limit at 1.2585.

 

[pssonice]

Half hour differences of (High-Low) increased by a factor of 2 to 40pips/half hour

your analysis cant handle this
Look at the last column!
What is your stopploss ?
Timeseries of 30min Candles in may 2010
DATE.TIME,OPEN,HIGH,LOW,CLOSE,VOL,HIGH-LOW,AVERAGE(HIGH-LOW)
20100430.2000,1.32883,1.33099,1.32869,1.33087,860,0.0023,17
20100430.2030,1.33079,1.33121,1.33021,1.33069,875,0.001,17
20100430.2100,1.33069,1.33161,1.33069,1.33115,605,0.00092,17
20100430.2130,1.33116,1.3316,1.33092,1.33132,631,0.00068,17
20100430.2200,1.3313,1.33161,1.33048,1.3305,506,0.00113,17
20100430.2230,1.3305,1.33085,1.32926,1.32931,527,0.00159,17
20100503.0000,1.33296,1.33323,1.33129,1.33209,586,0.00194,17
20100503.0030,1.33219,1.33219,1.33129,1.33199,192,0.0009,17
20100503.0100,1.33192,1.33257,1.33192,1.33202,238,0.00065,17
20100503.0130,1.332,1.33248,1.3312,1.3312,273,0.00128,17
20100503.0200,1.3311,1.3312,1.32855,1.3292,506,0.00265,17
20100503.0230,1.3292,1.3292,1.32565,1.32631,691,0.00355,18
20100503.0300,1.3263,1.32732,1.32288,1.32322,824,0.00444,18
20100503.0330,1.32306,1.3238,1.32139,1.32241,868,0.00241,18
20100503.0400,1.32242,1.32263,1.32089,1.3223,629,0.00174,18
20100503.0430,1.32225,1.32342,1.32225,1.32342,414,0.00117,18
20100503.0500,1.32339,1.32348,1.32204,1.32218,261,0.00144,18
20100503.0530,1.32218,1.32229,1.32105,1.32152,294,0.00124,18
20100503.0600,1.32156,1.32231,1.32053,1.32185,518,0.00178,18
20100503.0630,1.32184,1.3227,1.32165,1.32228,380,0.00105,18
20100503.0700,1.3223,1.32333,1.3221,1.32244,447,0.00123,18
20100503.0730,1.32247,1.3243,1.32239,1.32364,547,0.00191,19
20100503.0800,1.32369,1.32531,1.32358,1.32412,810,0.00173,19
20100503.0830,1.32408,1.3248,1.3224,1.32241,680,0.0024,19
20100503.0900,1.3224,1.32347,1.3212,1.32202,1245,0.00227,19
20100503.0930,1.32202,1.32363,1.32161,1.3236,930,0.00202,19
20100503.1000,1.32359,1.32432,1.32335,1.32401,919,0.00097,19
20100503.1030,1.324,1.32475,1.32288,1.32327,880,0.00187,19
20100503.1100,1.3232,1.32402,1.32301,1.32334,726,0.00101,19
20100503.1130,1.32334,1.32419,1.32325,1.32352,636,0.00094,19
20100503.1200,1.32356,1.32382,1.32257,1.32312,744,0.00125,19
20100503.1230,1.32313,1.32385,1.32281,1.32295,577,0.00104,19
20100503.1300,1.32293,1.32419,1.32251,1.32384,828,0.00168,18
20100503.1330,1.32384,1.32424,1.32343,1.3235,796,0.00081,18
20100503.1400,1.3235,1.32442,1.3235,1.32375,945,0.00092,18
20100503.1430,1.32385,1.32435,1.32347,1.3235,845,0.00088,18
20100503.1500,1.32353,1.32395,1.32279,1.32279,974,0.00116,18
20100503.1530,1.3228,1.32373,1.3227,1.32295,1065,0.00103,18
20100503.1600,1.32285,1.3231,1.3207,1.32092,1339,0.0024,18
20100503.1630,1.32091,1.32092,1.3167,1.31742,1875,0.00422,18
20100503.1700,1.31744,1.31849,1.31587,1.31802,1430,0.00262,18
20100503.1730,1.31803,1.31853,1.31541,1.3182,1260,0.00312,19
20100503.1800,1.31817,1.31971,1.31812,1.31939,814,0.00159,18
20100503.1830,1.31934,1.3199,1.31859,1.31989,642,0.00131,18
20100503.1900,1.31989,1.32,1.31831,1.31941,746,0.00169,18
20100503.1930,1.31944,1.31973,1.31891,1.31931,450,0.00082,17
20100503.2000,1.31933,1.32062,1.31929,1.32048,510,0.00133,17
20100503.2030,1.32044,1.3214,1.3202,1.32129,538,0.0012,16
20100503.2100,1.32129,1.32129,1.31991,1.32028,618,0.00138,16
20100503.2130,1.32024,1.32027,1.31921,1.31942,498,0.00106,16
20100503.2200,1.31941,1.31989,1.31901,1.31933,380,0.00088,16
20100503.2230,1.31936,1.31976,1.31861,1.31939,355,0.00115,16
20100503.2300,1.31936,1.31959,1.319,1.3194,129,0.00059,16
20100503.2330,1.31939,1.31979,1.31872,1.31889,299,0.00107,16
20100504.0000,1.31889,1.31978,1.31849,1.31954,239,0.00129,16
20100504.0030,1.31939,1.31985,1.3186,1.31982,354,0.00125,16
20100504.0100,1.31984,1.32009,1.31949,1.31969,202,0.0006,16
20100504.0130,1.31964,1.31985,1.31888,1.31955,322,0.00097,16
20100504.0200,1.31955,1.32009,1.31916,1.3193,359,0.00093,16
20100504.0230,1.31924,1.3212,1.3192,1.32086,530,0.002,16
20100504.0300,1.32093,1.32136,1.3197,1.321,561,0.00166,16
20100504.0330,1.32097,1.3213,1.32069,1.32077,356,0.00061,16
20100504.0400,1.32076,1.32125,1.32034,1.32045,374,0.00091,15
20100504.0430,1.32045,1.32046,1.31929,1.32005,420,0.00117,14
20100504.0500,1.32009,1.32037,1.31944,1.31997,242,0.00093,14
20100504.0530,1.31989,1.32043,1.31976,1.32021,303,0.00067,14
20100504.0600,1.32022,1.32069,1.31987,1.32017,318,0.00082,14
20100504.0630,1.32016,1.32089,1.31949,1.32073,464,0.0014,14
20100504.0700,1.32075,1.32077,1.3184,1.3186,680,0.00237,14
20100504.0730,1.31865,1.31873,1.31714,1.31795,1045,0.00159,14
20100504.0800,1.31793,1.31894,1.31689,1.31767,1325,0.00205,14
20100504.0830,1.31767,1.31893,1.31659,1.31741,1354,0.00234,14
20100504.0900,1.3174,1.31769,1.31459,1.31621,1667,0.0031,15
20100504.0930,1.31637,1.31682,1.3159,1.31663,1184,0.00092,15
20100504.1000,1.31662,1.31819,1.31494,1.3152,1409,0.00325,15
20100504.1030,1.31517,1.3152,1.31271,1.31325,1828,0.00249,15
20100504.1100,1.31327,1.31371,1.31172,1.31242,1596,0.00199,15
20100504.1130,1.31241,1.31452,1.31239,1.31301,1658,0.00213,15
20100504.1200,1.31302,1.31362,1.31146,1.31282,1325,0.00216,15
20100504.1230,1.31287,1.31307,1.31121,1.3121,1373,0.00186,15
20100504.1300,1.31208,1.31345,1.31202,1.31266,1205,0.00143,15
20100504.1330,1.31266,1.31266,1.30879,1.30951,1946,0.00387,16
20100504.1400,1.30951,1.31042,1.30773,1.30852,1822,0.00269,16
20100504.1430,1.30852,1.30998,1.30662,1.30662,1754,0.00336,16
20100504.1500,1.30665,1.30758,1.30599,1.30674,1696,0.00159,17
20100504.1530,1.30678,1.30682,1.30369,1.30548,2275,0.00313,17
20100504.1600,1.30536,1.30662,1.30433,1.30572,2148,0.00229,17
20100504.1630,1.30576,1.30605,1.30307,1.30322,2142,0.00298,18
20100504.1700,1.30324,1.30356,1.3021,1.30219,1854,0.00146,18
20100504.1730,1.30215,1.30372,1.30213,1.30363,1482,0.00159,18
20100504.1800,1.30361,1.30469,1.30341,1.30429,1443,0.00128,17
20100504.1830,1.30421,1.30434,1.3028,1.30399,1224,0.00154,17
20100504.1900,1.30399,1.30399,1.30121,1.30121,1222,0.00278,17
20100504.1930,1.30122,1.30232,1.30111,1.30212,931,0.00121,17
20100504.2000,1.30222,1.30222,1.30071,1.30093,903,0.00151,17
20100504.2030,1.30091,1.3013,1.29932,1.30023,1054,0.00198,17
20100504.2100,1.30021,1.30187,1.30005,1.30089,886,0.00182,17
20100504.2130,1.30089,1.30131,1.29949,1.30033,880,0.00182,17
20100504.2200,1.3003,1.30042,1.29819,1.29918,701,0.00223,17
20100504.2230,1.29919,1.29962,1.29812,1.29853,537,0.0015,17
20100504.2300,1.29858,1.29882,1.29645,1.29678,474,0.00237,18
20100504.2330,1.29669,1.29867,1.29626,1.29703,797,0.00241,18
20100505.0000,1.2973,1.29842,1.29691,1.29829,491,0.00151,18
20100505.0030,1.29834,1.29858,1.29616,1.29654,578,0.00242,18
20100505.0100,1.29655,1.29787,1.29654,1.29756,449,0.00133,18
20100505.0130,1.29754,1.29799,1.29653,1.29773,659,0.00146,18
20100505.0200,1.29772,1.29923,1.29767,1.2987,689,0.00156,18
20100505.0230,1.29868,1.2987,1.29509,1.29517,946,0.00361,19
20100505.0300,1.29514,1.29606,1.29372,1.29419,1144,0.00234,19
20100505.0330,1.29422,1.29572,1.29416,1.29559,767,0.00156,19
20100505.0400,1.29557,1.2967,1.29531,1.29608,548,0.00139,19
20100505.0430,1.29607,1.29649,1.29544,1.29577,489,0.00105,19
20100505.0500,1.29577,1.29682,1.29577,1.2965,520,0.00105,19
20100505.0530,1.2965,1.2967,1.2957,1.2958,435,0.001,19
20100505.0600,1.29584,1.29595,1.29359,1.29411,665,0.00236,20
20100505.0630,1.29416,1.29526,1.29402,1.29515,574,0.00124,20
20100505.0700,1.29511,1.2963,1.2949,1.29538,1023,0.0014,20
20100505.0730,1.29536,1.2974,1.29519,1.29703,1081,0.00221,20
20100505.0800,1.29699,1.29872,1.2964,1.2987,1424,0.00232,20
20100505.0830,1.2987,1.29962,1.29731,1.2995,1359,0.00231,20
20100505.0900,1.29937,1.29943,1.29555,1.29633,1745,0.00388,21
20100505.0930,1.29633,1.29664,1.29347,1.29487,1749,0.00317,21
20100505.1000,1.29493,1.29672,1.2942,1.29453,1791,0.00252,21
20100505.1030,1.29452,1.2972,1.29438,1.29695,1715,0.00282,21
20100505.1100,1.29705,1.29936,1.29687,1.29782,1398,0.00249,21
20100505.1130,1.29787,1.29895,1.29661,1.29711,1340,0.00234,21
20100505.1200,1.29712,1.29822,1.29559,1.29569,1243,0.00263,21
20100505.1230,1.29569,1.2957,1.29392,1.29392,1415,0.00178,21
20100505.1300,1.29391,1.29405,1.2926,1.29319,1524,0.00145,21
20100505.1330,1.29329,1.29351,1.29149,1.29261,1583,0.00202,21
20100505.1400,1.29262,1.29442,1.29061,1.29061,2047,0.00381,21
20100505.1430,1.29059,1.29059,1.2859,1.28599,2378,0.00469,22
20100505.1500,1.28599,1.28612,1.28039,1.28185,2586,0.00573,22
20100505.1530,1.28184,1.28471,1.28169,1.28447,2579,0.00302,22
20100505.1600,1.28445,1.28713,1.28437,1.28506,2438,0.00276,22
20100505.1630,1.28502,1.28742,1.28422,1.28662,2248,0.0032,22
20100505.1700,1.28661,1.28713,1.28472,1.28683,2044,0.00241,22
20100505.1730,1.28672,1.289,1.28623,1.289,1749,0.00277,22
20100505.1800,1.28904,1.29051,1.28779,1.28786,1680,0.00272,22
20100505.1830,1.28788,1.28899,1.28696,1.28899,1230,0.00203,22
20100505.1900,1.28901,1.28901,1.28619,1.2864,1261,0.00282,23
20100505.1930,1.28649,1.2866,1.28555,1.28591,1272,0.00105,23
20100505.2000,1.2859,1.28633,1.28358,1.28363,1301,0.00275,23
20100505.2030,1.28361,1.28412,1.28149,1.28241,1610,0.00263,23
20100505.2100,1.28243,1.28283,1.28089,1.28188,1215,0.00194,23
20100505.2130,1.28199,1.28278,1.28153,1.28209,938,0.00125,23
20100505.2200,1.28203,1.28252,1.28152,1.28252,545,0.001,23
20100505.2230,1.28252,1.28268,1.28121,1.28127,525,0.00147,23
20100505.2300,1.28123,1.28166,1.27886,1.28109,713,0.0028,23
20100505.2330,1.28109,1.28266,1.28109,1.28182,358,0.00157,23
20100506.0000,1.28182,1.28233,1.28027,1.28106,573,0.00206,23
20100506.0030,1.28106,1.28178,1.28091,1.28134,389,0.00087,23
20100506.0100,1.28134,1.28228,1.28119,1.28213,573,0.00109,22
20100506.0130,1.28213,1.28265,1.28146,1.28161,525,0.00119,22
20100506.0200,1.28164,1.28427,1.2816,1.28376,681,0.00267,22
20100506.0230,1.28375,1.2847,1.283,1.28361,726,0.0017,22
20100506.0300,1.28359,1.2846,1.28325,1.28353,613,0.00135,22
20100506.0330,1.28353,1.28373,1.28241,1.2833,783,0.00132,22
20100506.0400,1.2833,1.28458,1.28315,1.2839,538,0.00143,22
20100506.0430,1.28389,1.28564,1.28389,1.2846,770,0.00175,22
20100506.0500,1.28463,1.28515,1.28409,1.28431,524,0.00106,22
20100506.0530,1.28435,1.28509,1.28419,1.28449,301,0.0009,22
20100506.0600,1.2845,1.2845,1.28329,1.28371,615,0.00121,22
20100506.0630,1.2837,1.2837,1.28182,1.28263,667,0.00188,22
20100506.0700,1.28268,1.28268,1.28127,1.28213,982,0.00141,22
20100506.0730,1.2821,1.28341,1.28164,1.28327,922,0.00177,22
20100506.0800,1.28322,1.28327,1.27589,1.27697,1714,0.00738,23
20100506.0830,1.27693,1.27743,1.27389,1.27439,1863,0.00354,23
20100506.0900,1.27439,1.27801,1.27371,1.278,2008,0.0043,24
20100506.0930,1.27795,1.2809,1.27723,1.27951,1890,0.00367,24
20100506.1000,1.27952,1.27969,1.277,1.27957,1650,0.00269,24
20100506.1030,1.27955,1.28253,1.27928,1.28168,2076,0.00325,24
20100506.1100,1.28172,1.28202,1.27737,1.27773,1731,0.00465,24
20100506.1130,1.27776,1.27848,1.27627,1.27724,1833,0.00221,24
20100506.1200,1.27731,1.27943,1.27725,1.27913,1636,0.00218,24
20100506.1230,1.27915,1.28012,1.27813,1.27833,1452,0.00199,24
20100506.1300,1.27838,1.27859,1.27484,1.27649,2005,0.00375,24
20100506.1330,1.27644,1.27698,1.27162,1.27297,2138,0.00536,25
20100506.1400,1.27297,1.27485,1.27101,1.27374,2309,0.00384,25
20100506.1430,1.2737,1.27432,1.2709,1.27094,2348,0.00342,26
20100506.1500,1.27094,1.27321,1.269,1.27078,2758,0.00421,26
20100506.1530,1.27065,1.27529,1.26983,1.27467,2790,0.00546,26
20100506.1600,1.27457,1.27703,1.27202,1.27267,2473,0.00501,26
20100506.1630,1.27267,1.27312,1.26879,1.27106,2512,0.00433,26
20100506.1700,1.27109,1.27234,1.26887,1.27129,2615,0.00347,26
20100506.1730,1.27131,1.27136,1.26538,1.2688,2548,0.00598,27
20100506.1800,1.26888,1.2741,1.2687,1.27293,2227,0.0054,27
20100506.1830,1.27298,1.27332,1.26928,1.27319,1859,0.00404,28
20100506.1900,1.27317,1.27333,1.26929,1.27048,1892,0.00404,28
20100506.1930,1.27048,1.27087,1.26696,1.26716,1812,0.00391,28
20100506.2000,1.26722,1.26758,1.26098,1.2622,2543,0.0066,29
20100506.2030,1.2621,1.26406,1.25153,1.25963,2932,0.01253,31
20100506.2100,1.25954,1.26428,1.25695,1.25899,2810,0.00733,32
20100506.2130,1.259,1.26418,1.2588,1.26273,2191,0.00538,33
20100506.2200,1.26261,1.26279,1.26027,1.26082,1223,0.00252,33
20100506.2230,1.26077,1.26314,1.26043,1.26169,1052,0.00271,33
20100506.2300,1.26174,1.26611,1.26127,1.26355,1103,0.00484,33
20100506.2330,1.26335,1.26378,1.26138,1.26302,723,0.0024,34
20100507.0000,1.263,1.26456,1.26067,1.26238,1168,0.00389,34
20100507.0030,1.26232,1.26364,1.26158,1.26271,888,0.00206,34
20100507.0100,1.26269,1.26398,1.26189,1.2638,948,0.00209,34
20100507.0130,1.2638,1.26778,1.26327,1.26538,1253,0.00451,35
20100507.0200,1.26539,1.26582,1.25857,1.25891,1491,0.00725,36
20100507.0230,1.25901,1.2622,1.2589,1.26133,1145,0.0033,36
20100507.0300,1.26128,1.26483,1.26092,1.26395,1212,0.00391,37
20100507.0330,1.264,1.2654,1.26052,1.26474,1265,0.00488,37
20100507.0400,1.26484,1.26852,1.26474,1.26744,1417,0.00378,38
20100507.0430,1.26743,1.27225,1.2673,1.27083,1615,0.00495,38
20100507.0500,1.27083,1.27087,1.26837,1.26943,1105,0.0025,39
20100507.0530,1.26943,1.27075,1.26835,1.27065,1030,0.0024,39
20100507.0600,1.27065,1.27361,1.27011,1.2713,1114,0.0035,39
20100507.0630,1.27132,1.27185,1.26852,1.2694,1252,0.00333,40
20100507.0700,1.2695,1.26974,1.26578,1.26629,1613,0.00396,40
20100507.0730,1.26634,1.26991,1.26538,1.26831,1524,0.00453,41
20100507.0800,1.26846,1.27106,1.26628,1.26813,1902,0.00478,41
20100507.0830,1.26815,1.26957,1.26607,1.26629,1888,0.0035,42
20100507.0900,1.26639,1.26993,1.2634,1.26931,2415,0.00653,43
20100507.0930,1.26936,1.2743,1.26903,1.2715,2336,0.00527,42
20100507.1000,1.2715,1.27735,1.27089,1.27491,1441,0.00646,43

 

[Deltastock]

Re: Half hour differences of (High-Low) increased by a factor of 2 to 40pips/half ho

your analysis cant handle this
Look at the last column!
What is your stopploss ?
Timeseries of 30min Candles in may 2010
......

The table you've posted shows significant (x2) increase in the volatility on the 30min time-frame. This situation is considered day-trader friendly, because it gives more room for intraday trend-following trading strategies.
Of course, the stop loss in such occasions is also larger in pips, but it is the same in terms of capital risk, according to the MM rules.

Especially for today, my stop loss was 1.2585 by the time of the entry at 1.2680 and has been moved to BE after the pair broke through 1.2737. The limit however should be few pips below the intraday resistance area.

...The intraday bias is positive for 1.2801 with a risk limit at 1.2585.

Regards
Stoyan Mihaylov

 

[Deltastock]

May 10, 2010
Current level - 1.4845

The pair is in a downtrend after peaking at 1.7042. Trading is situated between the 50- and 200-day SMA, currently projected at 1.5190 and 1.5986.

With the recent low at 1.4475 the downtrend from 1.5393 is complete and current rebound aims at 1.4970-1.5020 resistance area. The intraday bias is positive for 1.4970 with a risk limit below 1.4820. We believe, that 1.4970-5020 area is perfect for a reversal, that should aim at 1.4750.

 

[pssonice]

GBPUSD -14950 ... top, great call ! but more or less out of time

but doesnt matter at all.

 

[Deltastock]

May 11, 2010
Current level - 92.50

The pair is in a broad consolidation above 84.78 short-term low. Trading is situated above the 50- and 200-day SMA, currently projected at 92.15 and 91.32.

As expected, yesterday's tests in the 93.35-50 resistance are failed and the pair is in a minor downtrend towards the lower boundary of the 90.83-93.35 range. The intraday bias is negative with an initial resistance at 92.85 and crucial level at 93.25. First support on the downside is 91.80, followed by 90.83.

 

[Deltastock]

Re: GBPUSD -14950 ... top, great call ! but more or less out of time

GBPUSD -14950 ... top, great call ! but more or less out of time

Thank You, pssonice.

Actually i never mentioned 1.4950, the expected reversal area was 1.4970-1.5020, which has been surpassed with 30 pips before the drowning to the 1.4750 target area.

Regards
Stoyan Mihaylov

 

[Deltastock]

May 12, 2010
Current level - 1.2660

EUR/USD is in a downtrend, after peaking at 1.5146 (Nov.25,2009). Technical indicators are descending, and trading is situated below the 50- and 200-Day SMA, currently projected at 1.3458 and 1.4206.

The slide from 1.3094 filled our target at 1.2610 and although there are no clear signs of a reversal yet, we continue to expect an upswing for 1.2881, en route to 1.31+. Initial intraday resistance comes at 1.2674 and the "trigger" on the upside is already 1.2750. Crucial on the downside is 1.2605.

 

[pssonice]

"May 12, 2010 Current level - 1.2660 EUR/USD is in a downtrend"

Today, 8:06am #128 Deltastock May 12, 2010 Current level - 1.2660
EUR/USD is in a downtrend, after peaking at 1.5146 (Nov.25,2009).

the base of your analysis r moving averages.
the market doesnt know anything about moving anything.
the market is looking for first order approximations like dt and db

Therefore u r unable to recognize that
... EUR/USD is in an uptrend

but nevertheless I like the way you r offering your analysis

 

[Deltastock]

Re: "May 12, 2010 Current level - 1.2660 EUR/USD is in a downtrend"

Today, 8:06am #128 Deltastock May 12, 2010 Current level - 1.2660
EUR/USD is in a downtrend, after peaking at 1.5146 (Nov.25,2009).

the base of your analysis r moving averages.
the market doesnt know anything about moving anything.
the market is looking for first order approximations like dt and db

Therefore u r unable to recognize that
... EUR/USD is in an uptrend

but nevertheless I like the way you r offering your analysis

Hi pssonice,
The base of my analysis is not MA. The first paragraph of the text is long-term and the second one is a combination of intra-day and intra-week. The MA's in the first one are only confirming the long-term direction, trend, or the lack of one.
In the second paragraph You'll never find MA's levels, because i don't use them at all. It is obvious, that i use only market S&R's (mostly static, rarely dynamic) and pure trend recogntion according to the Dow Theory. No pivots, no Fibos, no Waves.
As You know, TA is meant to be used for trading (should provide entry and exit points), not for forecasting the future, because it gives only a snapshot of the present situation, which is a reflection of the fundamentals. Because i use TA for forecasting as well, i have to pay attention to some of the indicators (like RSI) and to fundamentals (especially for timing purposes).
I totaly agree with You, that

"the market doesnt know anything about moving anything.
the market is looking for first order approximations like dt and db"

And can't agree with :

Therefore u r unable to recognize that
... EUR/USD is in an uptrend

The slide from 1.5146 is a downtrend and on the daily chart it is absolutely intact. The crucial level for this downtrend is 1.3690 (12.04.2010) and major resistance is 1.31+ area. We will have to wait for the market to say its final word if there is a significant bottom at 1.2520 or not.
Infact, there is no uptrend in EUR/USD at all on any of the time-frames. The last rise from 1.2520 has been completed at 1.3097 and is already history. Current rise from 1.2604 will become a trend only after a break above 1.2750.

Thank You for your appreciation, although it concerns only the way I'm offering it, not the analysis itself.

Regards
Stoyan Mihaylov

 

[Deltastock]

May 13, 2010
Current level - 1.4877

The pair is in a downtrend after peaking at 1.7042. Trading is situated between the 50- and 200-day SMA, currently projected at 1.5190 and 1.5986.

As expected, the rise from 1.4719 reversed below 1.51+ resistance area, but we are not convinced, that this is the beginning of a downtrend for 1.45+. So allow one more upswing towards 1.5120 res. before major reversal. The intraday bias is positive for 1.4961 and 1.5050 with a risk limit below 1.4850.

 

[Deltastock]

May 14, 2010
Current level - 1.2512

EUR/USD is in a downtrend, after peaking at 1.5146 (Nov.25,2009). Technical indicators are descending, and trading is situated below the 50- and 200-Day SMA, currently projected at 1.3458 and 1.4206.

The break below 1.2605 confirmed, that the downtrend from 1.3097 is intact and current bias remains negative for 1.2450 and 1.2330 major low. Initial resistance comes at 1.2599 and crucial is 1.2684.

 

[Deltastock]

May 18, 2010
Current level - 1.2416

EUR/USD is in a downtrend, after peaking at 1.5146 (Nov.25,2009). Technical indicators are descending, and trading is situated below the 50- and 200-Day SMA, currently projected at 1.3458 and 1.4206.

Current rebound is only a minor corrective phase and it aims to correct the slide from 1.2686. While 1.2440 is intact we will continue to favor the downside for one last spike-low that should complete the whole downtrend since 1.3690 high. Confirmative on the downside is 1.2315 and an eventual break above 1.2440 will set the focus on 1.2520 and 1.2601.

 

[Deltastock]

May 19, 2010
Current level - 1.4340

The pair is in a downtrend after peaking at 1.7042. Trading is situated between the 50- and 200-day SMA, currently projected at 1.5190 and 1.5986.

The recent test at 1.4249 provoked a minor consolidation phase, which is expected to be limited below 1.4405 before next drowning towards 1.4130 target area. Trigger on the downside is 1.4275.

 

[Deltastock]

May 20, 2010
Current level - 91.17

The pair is in a broad consolidation above 84.78 short-term low. Trading is situated above the 50- and 200-day SMA, currently projected at 92.15 and 91.32.

Current slide filled our target at 90.83 and we will expect a reversal around these levels to aim at 93.50, en route to 94.77. Trigger on the upside is 91.90.

 

[Deltastock]

May 21, 2010
Current level - 1.2501

EUR/USD is in a downtrend, after peaking at 1.5146 (Nov.25,2009). Technical indicators are descending, and trading is situated below the 50- and 200-Day SMA, currently projected at 1.3458 and 1.4206.

The break above 1.2440 resistance initiated an impulsive upmove, peaking at our target at 1.2600. After a minor consolidation in the 1.2600-1.2440 zone the uptrend was renewed and marked a top at 1.2671. Current intraday bias is negative with resistance at 1.2530, but a reversal above 1.2440 is to be expected later today for another upswing to 1.2605 area. On the 4h. chart our second target remains 1.2800-2850.

 

[Deltastock]

May 24, 2010
Current level - 1.2504

EUR/USD is in a downtrend, after peaking at 1.5146 (Nov.25,2009). Technical indicators are descending, and trading is situated below the 50- and 200-Day SMA, currently projected at 1.3458 and 1.4206.

A minor consolidation pattern unfolds below 1.2671 high and we expect it to be limited above 1.2440 resistance, for the next leg upwards, to 1.2806. Intraday bias is slightly negative below 1.2530, targeting 1.2440 major support.

 

[Deltastock]

May 25, 2010
Current level - 1.2240

EUR/USD is in a downtrend, after peaking at 1.5146 (Nov.25,2009). Technical indicators are descending, and trading is situated below the 50- and 200-Day SMA, currently projected at 1.3458 and 1.4206.

We still favor one more leg upwards to 1.2806 while 1.2140 bottom is intact, as the consolidation above that low has not yet met its time requirements. Our confidence however is low, because the intraday bias is absolutely negative with nearest resistance around 1.2368, followed by the crucial 1.2330.

 

[Deltastock]

May 27, 2010
Current level - 1.4490

The pair is in a downtrend after peaking at 1.7042. Trading is situated below the 50- and 200-day SMA, currently projected at 1.5057 and 1.5851.

We believe, that current rise is the expected upmove towards 1.4640 and later on to 1.4750 major resistance area. Important support on the downside is 1.4440 and only a violation of that level will neutralize the positive bias. Crucial is 1.4370.

 

[Deltastock]

May 28, 2010
Current level - 91.30

The pair is in a broad consolidation above 84.78 short-term low. Trading is situated below the 50- and 200-day SMA, currently projected at 92.60 and 91.06.

As expected, the pair broke through 90.80 resistance area and the bias is positive for 91.90, en route to 93.50. Important support on the downside is 90.60 and crucial on the 4 h. chart is 89.80. The DJIA index is also bullish for 10'490 and 10'720.