Dax System

[TWI]

How would it work out if you tried the following:

Every Thursday see how dax traded during the day. If it closed up on the day then buy Friday open.
if it closed down on the day Thursday then sell the Friday open.

Close positions on Friday close.

 

[FetteredChinos]

interesting..where has this little seed come from?

im guessing that it will probably be about a 0 return over the long run. or rather, performance would be linked to long-term performance of the dax.....

fridays tend to be big news days, and things go all over the shop..

although the early friday session tends to show some continuation of thursdays late action. on the FTSE at least, so im presuming the dax might do the same..

with stops, you may be able to wangle something...

 

[TWI]

Somebody here was saying how he thought if you bought the Bund every Friday morning you would make money so I tested that out. Was certainly a bit iffy.
Then decided to tidy it up a bit so used Thursday as a leading indicator for Fridays long or short signal. It worked on CME Eurodollar and Dax pretty well. I attach equity curve back to beginning of year for Dax.

For something so simple it is not bad. Can introduce simple stop of 60ticks with no degradation in curve.

On Dow it looks horrible actually better to do the opposite. May be worth looking at the spread.

 

[TWI]

Here is Eurodollar result back to Dec 2002.
Admit to some horrible draws in the period but over time it has paid with 47 long trades and 35 short.
I was quite surprised.

 

[FetteredChinos]

so am i. that really is surprising..

it probably has a lot to do with people covering their positions going into the weekend...

perhaps this could be done on a shorter timescale...

ie perhaps the last 30 mins of a day would reverse the previous action, if the range was above a certain level.

certainly noticed this on FX...

after a large spike move post-data, the last hour or so tends to drift slowly in the opposite direction.

also with the DOW yesterday. large move down, followed by some covering leading into the close...

food for thought?

 

[TWI]

Reason it interests me so much is the appeal of only working one day per week

 

[FetteredChinos]

well it would improve the golf handicap...

reminds me that i need to dust-off the clubs..


still, im playing cricket tmr for the pub team. always fun going into bat after a few beers..its no wonder we havent won for a year......

 

[aussie2242]

so does this actually work on average for the year.. new to spread betting and needsome tips as to how to get started and a few in s and outs.. thanks

 

[TWI]

aussie2242,
I would not rely on this to make your fortune, yes it worked for a long time but this is no guarantee it will continue to work into the future. Really do not know the answer. Good money management is the key.