DAX Outlook Thread

DAXtrader54

Junior member
43 1
Final Summary
A bullish day, despite the heavy consolidation and tight range we have been trading recently. The Dax will do whatever the Dax wants to do, all we can do is prempt the moves and follow the smart money if possible. The big question is where the major buyers would be, i.e the institutions and funds. Are they looking to hold, dump or add to positions right now. Chances are they are already long and holding, but are they looking to buy at current levels? Possibly not, as they are likely already long I would imagine they wouldn’t consider adding unless we pulled back to much lower levels first.

My mid-term outlook is still bullish for the rest of the year and I have this outlook because of the same broken record argument I’ve pitched for weeks; Oil prices are low, which means future earnings prospects are looking good. And if you add in the QE that’s being thrown about you have a nice mixture for businesses. This part of the year is reporting season, so if future earnings prospects look good, which direction will the index move. I appreciate that things don’t look so good for the Euro as a currency, but we are not discussing the Euro, we are discussing the future prospects of the leading German index and the Dax has some good performers with some strong numbers. So I am bullish, personally.

I have entered a long trade as we have broken out of the triangle formation discussed earlier, we also came back to test the triangle and it acted supportive and bounced away again.

Good morning everyone, let’s hope for a decent trading week this week. I can not make a video today, due to a failed hard drive on my laptop, so have to use an old laptop which does not have the functionality.

I’ll keep the summary short today. So we know that the Dax is trapped in a range at the moment and is awaiting a break out from it’s emerging triangle formation, in fact double triangle formation. There is increasing pressure to the downside with lots more supply than demand currently in the market place.

Consolidation trading is the name of the game to avoid being bounced around when we find fake breakouts. I might even find other markets to trade temporarily, because this one isn’t doing a great deal.

Mid/Long term bias is still bullish, current short-term bias is neutral/bearish.

The setup I have today is to only look to trade a breakout of the outside triangle and wait until it happens: (on the website)
 

DAXtrader54

Junior member
43 1
We have broken out of the emerging triangle pattern and seem to be heading north today, making two bullish daily candles back to back. The move suggests an end to the recent consolidation and perhaps the market is now ready to commit to a direction.

We burst through the 9400 and this levels seem to have become support.

It is unlikely that we trade much beyond 9465 today and tomorrow is likely that we have a pullback before continuing much higher as we haven’t seen three bullish candles back to back for a long time.

My strategy intra-day today would be to buy dips and avoid selling, but as I already have an open position I won’t be trading intra-day.

Video:
www.daxtrader.co.uk for more
 

DAXtrader54

Junior member
43 1
http://www.daxtrader.co.uk/dax-technical-analysis-market-outlook-24112014/

Lots of fundamentals out there to support further Dax strength. Friday’s surprise China rate cut is still being digested and speculators are keen to see a boost to trade. USDJPY reaches a five year high, SPX going vertical, inflation concerns in the Eurozone causing Draghi to take a stand and place the war chest on the table to show everyone what he’s prepared to do to. Equity fundamentals are still strong for the majority of the components and oil price is still a factor. Has anyone mentioned santa rally?

The pitchfork from January is now about to keel over. I had predicted 9750 by the end of the year,expectations are now being exceeded for me, I could now move the prediction to 10,000 but I would like to see a break of 9850 and another new high for the day today first.
 

DAXtrader54

Junior member
43 1
Consolidated in the afternoon after an initial surge forward. We tested Friday’s VPOC but didn’t breach it, bounced to make new highs and stayed in the 2nd half of the distribution for the rest of the day. Carved out a low volume pocket, chipped away at it, but it still holds. VWAP has caught up and is acting as a support area and now it’s dying.

I would like to see a retest of the previous pitchfork setup, which could act as a 50 fib zone from recent upswing, around the 9500 level which was a previous area of support. So I would like a correction to present itself. I don’t like shorting in bull markets, but I may be tempted temporarily.

I am definitely interested in buying from lower levels, unless we see another geo-politcal crisis.
 

DAXtrader54

Junior member
43 1
www.daxtrader.co.uk/dax-technical-analysis-25-11-2014
http://youtu.be/daJOm1_MOO0
Well, another bullish day so far and another new high, we’ve even taken out the September high and broken into the 99xx, briefly. At this rate we could be testing the 10k level. The S&P’s high in September was 2021 and is currently at 2071, if the Dax moved proportionately the same, perhaps 10150 is possible.The daily chart is aggressively pointing vertical and is showing one of the steepest inclines that we have ever seen. I think there is a lot of momentum in this move, can not quite see a top here yet and it’s possible that the 10k level can go soon.I think as soon as a correction/reversal does come, lots of people are going to jump on it.Current trade setups: I missed the breakout this morning so no longer term trades out there that I can see. I am likely going to try a scalp short today,especially as there is a low volume pocket at 9850.
 
G

Guest36985

0 0
www.daxtrader.co.uk/dax-technical-analysis-25-11-2014
http://youtu.be/daJOm1_MOO0
Well, another bullish day so far and another new high, we’ve even taken out the September high and broken into the 99xx, briefly. At this rate we could be testing the 10k level. The S&P’s high in September was 2021 and is currently at 2071, if the Dax moved proportionately the same, perhaps 10150 is possible.The daily chart is aggressively pointing vertical and is showing one of the steepest inclines that we have ever seen. I think there is a lot of momentum in this move, can not quite see a top here yet and it’s possible that the 10k level can go soon.I think as soon as a correction/reversal does come, lots of people are going to jump on it.Current trade setups: I missed the breakout this morning so no longer term trades out there that I can see. I am likely going to try a scalp short today,especially as there is a low volume pocket at 9850.


"Well, another bullish day so far and another new high"

I would just add that to your signature, it will save you having to type it every day. :LOL:

Crazy days.
 
 
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