Daily Trading Advisory

[arturo1]

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 14-October-2008


Markets post historic gains as governments “show the money” on their rescue plans. Morgan Stanley soars after Mitsubishi UFJ buys 21% for $9 billion. President Bush will announce an expanded bank bailout details.


ECONOMIC DATA

None

YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

U.S. stock indexes had their biggest one day jump ever. In a sky rocket session markets changed their short term sentiment. The E-mini SP opened well above Friday’s settlement starting the session at 942.00 and pulled back to 934.00. The short lived pullback posted the daily intraday lows as markets started to move higher showing a strong bullish pattern. The SP pushed up to 955.00 from where another orderly pullback tested the 948.00 level. As markets continue to move higher on a broad based rally, the SP moved up to 968.00 where a decent setback resulted in a move down to 954.00 where buyers stepped in strongly driving the index all the way up to the previous high that once it get broken, markets rallied on a parabolic move reaching their highest levels into the end of the session. On this “never seen” rally, the SP gained 125.75 points and settled at 1016.75, the Nasdaq which outperformed the SP signaling further upside momentum 176.00 points closing the session at 1458.50 and the Russell gained 50.60 points and settled at 571.70. The Dow jumped more than 14% after posting a gain of 1171 points, it ended the day at 9447.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote:” At some moment, when the selling dries, and those who survived and still own huge capitals appear with their huge buying orders the current trend will get reversed. Last week huge sell off probably has already exhausted the selling pressure, at least on the short term, and Friday’s huge tail on the candlestick chart style, signals strong support at the recent lows, so we could expect that the markets will try to move higher. Another bullish condition for this week is de October option expiration that could help to push the markets higher, even above the 1000.00 mark on the SP. There are some important levels on the SP500 index (cash) that should offer very strong support, 823.00, 789.00 and 766.00 add some points plus the slippage and figure the futures contract near one of those levels. Even with the late rally seen on Friday that signals strong buying support at the recent lows, and even with a 2-3 days rally or consolidation, I think Friday’s low will get tested once more and maybe exceeded, if that happens, and the Dow test the 7700 area and gets back above 8050, probably it’s a buy, however the extreme volatility makes difficult to choose a good entry point and almost impossible do define a stop price. After Friday’s huge initial sell off and the high volumes that signal that sellers may be done, the index should rally during today’s trading session, actually at the time that I am writing my report, markets are trading sharply higher. This early rally could get reversed testing Friday’s settlement or lower and then rally back to close on positive territory, if that happens, then the next two to three day’s could finally offer some type of consolidation, and then, the indexes could fall to test the lows, or as a consequence of this last strong downward move continue to trade higher for another week before the rally gets into troubles.”

Yesterday’s record rally after last week huge sell off seems to have posted the low that we were looking for, and the indexes should continue with their near short term upside momentum at least for the next sessions. Many times I have write about the relative lack of importance in isolated moves, and with this I make reference to they key follow through continuation patterns after an important move. That means that yesterday’s huge relief rally will have to continue during the next few days in order to assume that the low is solid. This is the most probable scenario, the markets capitulated, the selling pressure got exhaust and the last shorts were trapped after yesterday’s opening gap. I can assume that for Friday’s bottom to be perfect, the indexes should move lower to test those lows by reaching them, posting a marginal new low or placing a higher low on the daily charts, but yesterday’s move seem to have legs to move higher until the last short gets squeezed and only then place the indexes in troubles. This means that buying the pullbacks should be the way to go, and if I am write, once the SP closes two consecutive sessions above 1013.00 (the first close above that area was yesterday), it should be able to reach at least the 1063.00 level, if that area do not hold an extremely overdone bear rally, then we could see the 1112.00 level before this move is over. The magnitude of last week downward move makes possible that this rally will hold into the end of next week, and this coming Friday in which there is the October option expiration should make add fuel to this huge upside move.

Yesterday’s rally went with relatively light volume; this can be an arguments for bears that there was not institutional participation, but huge amounts of money are just sitting on the sidelines and ready to join the market once the indexes show some follow through. If my short term bullish bias is wrong, the worst case is to see a consolidation of yesterday’s move, but if the markets close lower today and do not recover for tomorrows session, this huge rally could be a great selling opportunity.

For today’s trading session, volatility and wide wild swings should continue to be present, in these cases our tight stop loss orders do not work so well, but I will try to be a buyer on the pullbacks as my work calls for an extension of yesterday’s upside move. Market psychology tell us that players tend to exaggerate in their pessimism or optimism, and if the sentiment has changed and the upside momentum is back, don’t be surprise to see a test of the 10000 level on the Dow. Don’t expect to see another trend session, but the general bias should be to the upside.



TODAY’S SESSION

There is resistance at 1026.00-1028.00 on the SP, 1473.00-1475.00 on the Nasdaq and 578.50-579.80 on the Russell. Those levels are pivotal and if yesterday’s incredible rally is due to continue, the futures indexes should be able to trade higher and reach 1037.00-1038.50 on the SP, 1488.00-1490.50 on the Nasdaq and 585.70-586.30 on the Russell. If the markets managed to break higher, expect additional short covering that pushes the indexes up to 1047.00-1049.00 on the SP, 1503.00-1505.00 on the Nasdaq and 592.10-593.50 on the Russell. On the Globex session, the E-mini SP has already reached 1050 and the move was strongly rejected at that level, so an early test of the nightly highs should offer a good short entry, but don’t overstay your welcome as the trend has turned to the upside.

There is huge support at 1006.00-1004.00 on the SP, 1428.00-1426.00 on the Nasdaq and 562.40-561.10 on the Russell. An early pullback to those levels should be a great buying opportunity, however, if the markets break lower, it could be an indication that yesterday’s move was overdone and the indexes are ready for a two days of consolidation before another run to the highs, if that happen, look for additional support at 997.00-995.25 on the SP, 1413.00-1410.50 on the Nasdaq and 557.50-556.30 on the Russell. Those MUST hold for the indexes to maintain their strong upside pattern, if the markets fail there expect a test of 986.00-984.00 on the SP, 1378.00-1376.00 on the Nasdaq and 543.70-542.00 on the Russell. If the SP can not rally from that area and the 981.25 pivot level gets violated, yesterday’s rally could be in jeopardy. GOOD LUCK.



TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1055.00-1056.50 1515.50-1518.00 599.20-600.50
Resistance 3 1047.00-1049.00 1503.00-1505.00 592.10-593.50
Resistance 2 1037.00-1038.50 1488.00-1490.50 585.70-586.30
Resistance 1 1026.00-1028.00 1473.00-1475.00 578.50-579.80
PIVOT 981.25 1405.00 558.10
Support 1 1006.00-1004.00 1428.00-1426.00 562.40-561.10
Support 2 997.00-995.25 1413.00-1410.50 557.50-556.30
Support 3 986.00-984.00 1378.00-1376.00 543.70-542.00
Support 4 961.00-958.50 1366.00-1364.00 525.80-524.70


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1192.65 1721.62 659.32
1167.10 1683.38 647.28
1125.75 1621.50 627.80
1084.40 1559.62 608.32
1058.85 1521.38 596.28
1017.50 1459.50 576.80
976.15 1397.62 557.32
963.38 1378.50 551.30
950.60 1359.38 545.28
909.25 1297.50 525.80
867.90 1235.62 506.32
842.35 1197.38 494.28
801.00 1135.50 474.80
759.65 1073.62 455.32
734.10 1035.38 443.28



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1071.25 1540.00 599.80
AS DAILY LOW 963.00 1378.00 548.80





Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

 

[arturo1]

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 20-January-2009

U.S. stocks advance as government injected $20 billion into Bank of America and guaranteed losses on over $400 billion in assets of both Bank of America and Citigroup. Citigroup will split after posting $8.29 billion loss dot fourth quarter. BAC has first loss in 17 years. Preliminary Merrill Lynch results indicate a mammoth size fourth-quarter loss of $15.31 billion. CPI lower by .7%, year to year inflation is the lowest in 54 years, Industrial production minus 2%

WEEKLY PIVOTS FOR WEEK ENDING 23- January-2008

R3 921.00
R2 888.50
R1 868.00
PP 849.75
S1 835.00
S2 812.00
S3 794.25

ECONOMIC DATA
None

WEEKLY RECAP
A rough week for the U.S. equity markets as each of the indexes ended this period with losses. Monday’s session started on a quite note but fears about corporate earnings and weakness in the financials dominated the session, USB losing $7.2 billion in the fourth quarter and Citigroup splitting giving control of its brokerage to Morgan Stanley pushed the markets down, Citigroup shares fell more than 20% despite the expected earnings of the selling of some of its divisions. After the initial stability markets traded down for most of the session, the SP settled at 868.00 losing 17.50 points, the Nasdaq lost 15.50 points ending the session at 1206.00 and the Russell ended lower by 9.80 points at 466.80. The Dow lost 125 points closing the day at 8473. Tuesday was a consolidating session as markets fluctuated after a string of losing sessions. Alcoa reported a loss of $1.9 billion and Bernanke came with bearish commentaries about the economy saying that the stimulus plan won't be enough and more guarantees and additional asset buying may be done in the near future in order to stabilize the bank sector. Commodities prices including grains continue to collapse on lower demand and analyst expectations that the economy will continue to shrink during the year. In the corporate area, GE fell on Barclay’s profit outlook. For the day, the SP ended almost unchanged at 868.50, the Nasdaq lost two points closing the session at 1204.00 and the Russell closed up 5.70 points at472.50. The Dow lost 25 points closing at 8448. Big losses for Wednesday’s session as bad news were the tone of the day. Deutsche Bank $6.3 billion loss, worries about Citigroup after it gave control of its brokerage to Morgan Stanley which predicted it will have to raise as much as $30 billion and cut its dividend in half and that the bank's profit is likely to fall "sharply" this year and won't recover until 2011 and Retail Sales much worst than expected, minus 2.7% resulted in a strong negative session. The Fed’s Beige Book indicates a weakening economy in all the sectors and regions. Nortel Networks filed for bankruptcy as corporations continued to reflect the worst recession since the big depression. Markets ended sharply lower with the SP losing 28.75 points and finishing the day at 839.75, the Nasdaq ended lower by 38.50 points at 1165.50 and the Russell lost 20.10 points closing the session at 452.40. The Dow lost 248 points closing the day at 8200. Thursday’s session was highly volatile as the indexes traded at levels not seen since the beginning of last December, the day started with the news that Steve Jobs is suffering from health problems, also the ECB lowered rates by half point trying to prevent a recession. Initial Claims was up by 54K at 524K and continuing claims at4.5 million, PPI down by 1.9% and NY Empire State Index at 22.00 indicating weakness. JP Morgan post small profit and Bank of America will received another $20 billion to support Merrill’s deal. At the end of the session markets managed to come back leaving many shorts trapped near the lows but failing to show good volumes during the late rally. The SP ended the session with a half point loss at 839.25, the Nasdaq added 11.75 points and settled at 1177.25 and the Russell gained 7.50 points closing the session at 459.90. The Dow managed to close up by 12 points at 8212. Friday’s session was dominated by the January option expiration, the reported CPI was in line, minus .7%, year to year lowest in 54 years. Industrial Production continued to plunge; another 2% for December and Intel reported a 90% drop in fourth quarter earnings while many other companies issued sales and earnings warnings. However, markets ended higher in front of Monday's Martin Luther King holiday and next Tuesday's Obama's period inauguration, the SP ended higher by 9.25 points closing the session at 848.50, the Nasdaq added 19.75 points and settled at 1197.00 and the Russell added3.70 points ending the day at 463.60. The Dow ended up by 68 points at 8281.



FRIDAY’S MARKETS
After trading sharply higher during the Globex session, the E-mini SP started the day at 855.00 from where it backed off to 850.00 just to bounce back to 855.00 and trade sideways inside the opening range. The failure to break above the early highs resulted in a pullback to 847.50 where the index held. After a bounce to the 852.50 area, the SP moved lower reaching almost updated 844.50 downside objective from where it resumed the rally pushing upwards to 852.00 but failing once more to break higher. Once more, the index sold off to the daily lows where the market continued to hold. The SP then bounced a few points but gets sold to new intraday lows at 842.00 from where another bounce reached 846.25. Another pullback resulted in a new low that tested 837.75, bounced to 842.00 and pushed to a new low at 834.50. As the selling pressure continued to increase, the SP moved all the way down to 826.25 where the sell off finally ended. The SP rallied all the way up to 836.00, pulled back to the strong support area at 830.00 and continued higher to 840.00 where the rally stall posting a small double top that once it get broken gave the markets the necessary upside momentum to push higher reaching the early support and now resistance 845.00 area where the short covering rally lost its momentum. The SP pulled back to 837.00, bounced to 844.00 and once more backed off a few points just to bounce to another failed breakout attempt. Another breakout attempt reached pushed higher and reached 850.50, backed off to 845.00 and rallied to 851.50 from where the index fell back to 843.50, bounced a few points and sold off a few points but inched higher into the close. For the day, the SP ended higher by 9.25 points closing the session at 848.50, the Nasdaq added 19.75 points and settled at 1197.00 and the Russell added3.70 points ending the day at 463.60. The Dow ended up by 68 points at 8281.
MONDAY’S MARKETS
Martin Luther King shortened Globex session, showed a nightly rally that reached 865.75 on strong short covering following Friday’s positive session. The market opened with a gap and rallied to its highs, just to fall and trade for most of the night between 855.00 and 858.00, but after a couple of hours, the SP fell strong reaching 840.25. After bouncing to the 843.00 level, the index fell to a new low at 837.25, another failed bounce resulted in another push to new lows, the SP tested 834.50. After a series of higher lows the SP bounced to 840.50 but the overall weakness in the Globex session obviously couldn’t find any reason for a short covering rally. The SP settled at 840.00 for Monday’s Globex session.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Last Friday I wrote:” Yesterday’s early sell off certainly exhausted the downtrend move leaving many late shorts trapped at levels well below the settlements, I clearly indicated that it was too late to take a short position and stick to it. This last downside move was done with better volumes and probably, the key reversal correction seen from yesterday’s lows has more room to go. Of curse, we can not call for a low until this rally exceeds three to five days, or push prices above the 888.00-892.00 areas on the SP and 8600-8800 on the Dow. So the scenario for these coming days is a countertrend rally that fails after three days or a strong move that makes all the way up to the last highs, and then probably fail as this bear campaign has not ended yet. Yesterday I wrote that the markets are trading in a wide range, obviously, they were broken during yesterday’s session, but the close was positive, and at least for today’s session and next week events, markets should be able to hold. The daily charts show that the markets posted a bullish reversal and if they can continue to move higher we could see a continuation pattern that could easily spark a big rally back to 868.50 during the next two sessions. I personally don’t like to trade on expiration dates, but I will favor the long side on a successful test of yesterday’s late lows around 830.00 on the SP or a breakout above the 844.50 level. “

Option expiration certainly showed a lot of volatility during Friday’s trading session, the highs at the Globex session with a positive opening, the sell off that exceeded by 3+- our 830.00 level and the strong reversal during the second half of the session.
Markets continue to move on high levels of uncertainty, and despite that the obvious move should be to the upside, the indexes have been showing wide intraday sell offs that indicate the lack of buying. Last Friday I explained that the strong sell off seen during the week that printed its low around 812.75 should get resolved with a countertrend rally that should last between 2-4 day, and that in the best case as first upside objective should be able to push the SP to the 884.00 level. Not doing so, will indicate that a strong downtrend has been initiated and that soon the November lows will be seen. This index, the SP, has been showing strong support around the 830.00 level, a few points above or below, and the Dow has been holding the 8050 despite last week false break. These areas will have to be defended by the bulls or this strong move down will get resumed during the next two trading sessions. I would be thinking that some kind of mercy could be given to the new President, and even, that the extension of a new rally attempt could bring prices back to the last highs around the 950.00 area, but the fear about the financial sectors and the ugly earnings season, could give way to a test of much more lower levels. Right now it is a problem to qualify the bounce from last week lows, has the market successfully printed a higher low, or this strong down trend that already pushed prices down during the first 15 days of the year the continuation of the primary bear trend? This will have to get resolved during the first trading days of this week, only two consecutive closes above the 858.50 area will open the doors for higher prices. The SP has built a support area during the last 45 days, and if that continues to hold, another test of the January highs could be seen before the bear campaign resumes. On the short term, the area above the 830.00-828.00 level which should act as strong support could result in a strong upside reversal in the upcoming sessions.
For today’s trading, session, during yesterday’s shorted holiday Globex session, the SP has already posted what it could be the range for today trading session. I assume most of the players will follow the Obama’s inauguration, so trading both sides of yesterday’s range should be the way to go, trade with tight stops, as despite that I am expecting a bullish session, the sell offs that the markets have been suffering have been wider than usual, 30.00 SP points from the highs, so please, don’t forget to place a stop. If there is something different to be seen during today’s trading session and the first hour lows hold, we could see and uptrend session, so don’t try to pick a top if a slow uptrend develops during the session.


TODAY’S SESSION
Initial resistance at 851.00-852.50 on the SP, 1201.00-1203.00 on the Nasdaq and 465.50-467.50 on the Russell. Trading above them will push the indexes to levels around last Friday’s reversal highs at 855.50-857.00, 1208.00-1210.00 on the Nasdaq and 469.70-470.50 on the Russell. If markets exceed those levels look for the rally to continue reaching 862.00-863.00 on the SP, 1216.00-1217.50 on the Nasdaq and 472.80-474.00. Trading above them will indicate a test of the important 868.00 level on the SP.


There is support at 845.00-844.00 on the SP, 1193.00-1191.00 on the NQ and 461.70-460.20 on the Russell. If the markets get there and rally, don’t expect these levels to be seen for a second time during the session, however, if those do not hold, look for some more profit taking that could push the indexes down to 840.50-839.50 on the SP, 1185.00-1183.00 on the Nasdaq and 458.10-457.30 on the Russell. Failing to rally from there, will indicate a test of 835.50-833.50 on the SP, 1179.50-1178.00 on the Nasdaq and 452.90-451.50 on the Russell. If the markets can not hold those areas, only 830.00-828.00 will offer some support before the indexes push down stronger for a test of last week lows. GOOD LUCK.
.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 866.00-868.00 1222.00-1224.00 475.30-475.70
Resistance 3 862.00-863.00 1216.00-1217.50 472.80-474.00
Resistance 2 855.50-857.00 1208.00-1210.00 469.40-470.50
Resistance 1 851.00-852.50 1201.00-1203.00 465.50-467.50
PIVOT 844.50 1187.50 460.50
Support 1 845.00-844.00 1193.00-1191.00 461.70-460.20
Support 2 840.50-839.50 1185.00-1183.50 458.10-457.30
Support 3 835.50-833.50 1179.50-1178.00 452.90-451.50
Support 4 830.00-828.00 1176.00-1174.00 448.40-447.60


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
908.72 1260.06 503.80
901.28 1251.44 498.80
889.25 1237.50 490.70
877.22 1223.56 482.60
869.78 1214.94 477.60
857.75 1201.00 469.50
845.72 1187.06 461.40
842.00 1182.75 458.90
838.28 1178.44 456.40
826.25 1164.50 448.30
814.22 1150.56 440.20
806.78 1141.94 435.20
794.75 1128.00 427.10
782.72 1114.06 419.00
775.28 1105.44 414.00



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 868.75 1217.00 477.20
AS DAILY LOW 837.00 1180.00 456.00​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

 

[luckyd1976]

Thanks for keeping it all in one link. Easier to read.

 

[arturo1]

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 21-January-2009


RBS bailout by British government, Fiat to get 35% stake in Chrysler, J&J beats analyst expectations. Banks share sink with Citigroup and Bank of America hitting their lowest levels since the early 1990s, after State Street Corp said it needs to raise capital as its shares fell as much as 55 percent in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, wiping out $8.7 billion of market value and dragging the stock market lower.


ECONOMIC DATA
10:35 AM Crude Inventories


YESTERDAY’S MARKET
After trading as high as 865.75 during Sunday’s Globex session, the E-mini SP started the day at 838.50 ready for President Obama’s inauguration event. After pushing up to 840.50 the index sold off strongly reaching 822.00 from where it bounced to 826.00 from where it pushed to a new low at 820.25. Another bouncing attempt reached 827.50, after sitting for a while up there, the SP pushed higher to our intraday resistance levels at 830.00. As the weakness continued, the SP pulled back to 823.50, bounced to 826.00 and pushed lower for a test of the lows. The double bottom resulted in a rebound to 828.00, but the markets failed to break higher just before the President’s inauguration. The SP pulled back once more to 823.50 where a series of small higher lows resulted in another bounce to 828.00 that failed pushing the SP to new lows at 816.25. Another weak rebound managed to reach 825.50 just to fall to 820.00, bounce back to 825.00 and fell to 818.00 where the selling dried. Once more the index managed to bounce but the extreme weakness resulted in another move to new lows, the SP reached 814.50. As the same pattern of trading continued with markets posting lower highs and lower lows, another feeble bounce gave way to a new intraday low, this time at 813.00 and then at 810.00 from where the SP manage to bounce to 816.00 just to repeat the pattern by posting a new low at 809.00, and then at 807.50 and 802.25. After posting the lows, a late correction pushed the SP to last week lows at 812.00 just to get sold into the end reaching 797.50 before bouncing a into the close. For the day, the SP lost 42.50 points and settled at 806.00, the Nasdaq ended lower by 49.50 points at 1147.50 and the Russell lost 31.00 ending the session at 432.60 The Dow closed below the 8000 mark at 7949 losing 4%, 332 points.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Last Tuesday I wrote:“ Markets continue to move on high levels of uncertainty, and despite that the obvious move should be to the upside, the indexes have been showing wide intraday sell offs that indicate the lack of buying. Last Friday I explained that the strong sell off seen during the week that printed its low around 812.75 should get resolved with a countertrend rally that should last between 2-4 day, and that in the best case as first upside objective should be able to push the SP to the 884.00 level. Not doing so, will indicate that a strong downtrend has been initiated and that soon the November lows will be seen. This index, the SP, has been showing strong support around the 830.00 level, a few points above or below, and the Dow has been holding the 8050 despite last week false break. These areas will have to be defended by the bulls or this strong move down will get resumed during the next two trading sessions. Right now it is a problem to qualify the bounce from last week lows, has the market successfully printed a higher low, or this strong down trend that already pushed prices down during the first 15 days of the year the continuation of the primary bear trend? This will have to get resolved during the first trading days of this week; only two consecutive closes above the 858.50 area will open the doors for higher prices. On the short term, the area above the 830.00-828.00 level which should act as strong support could result in a strong upside reversal in the upcoming sessions.”

Yesterday’s broad based sell off and continuation downward move was done after the SP broke below the obvious support around 828.00-826.00 where a series of lows were seen during the last two months, after the November lows. With everybody hoping that a rally could get develop for the President Obama’s inauguration act, only a “suckers” rally that left some early birds trapped during Sunday’s Globex session at levels above the 850.00 area was what the markets were able to do. Yesterday was a wide range session where markets broke below the last two month consolidation. If this last down leg will be the one that will exhaust the bear trend, the SP should break below the November lows and probably reach the 700.00 area or lower. However, this bear market has been everything but normal, and if the index is capable to hold yesterday’s lows on a close and run above the 865.75 where the nightly high left an open gap, the next bear market rally could be much stronger than everybody will be expecting, and I am taking about another test of the most recent highs above the 950.00 area on the SP and 9400 on the Dow. Am I mad? It may be, but the madness of the current markets could give way for such a move. The key obviously will be that yesterday’s lows remain intact for today’s close and that the next countertrend rally, if it happens exceeds five days, that is valid if yesterday’s lows exhausted the current move.
Last week lows on the Nasdaq, 1138.50, were able to hold for most of the session, should a rally starts at these levels, those lows at 1138.50 MUST HOLD, otherwise my first described scenario for the SP will become a sad reality.
After yesterday’s huge sell off, there is a chance that the indexes will consolidate during today’s trading session before the next strong move happens, anything but this or a strong reversal resulting from an early low or an opening upside gap will result in additional weakness and selling pressure despite that markets are oversold at the current levels. So, markets are at the crossroads with not other chances that a strong bounce or a test of the November lows.


TODAY’S SESSION
There is initial resistance at 812.50-813.50 on the SP, 1155.50-1156.00 on the Nasdaq and 435.80-436.50 on the Russell, if those get exceeded markets should be able to reach 818.50-820.00 on the SP, 1164.00-1165.50 on the Nasdaq and 439.50-440.80 on the Russell. Breaking above those areas could indicate that a countertrend move has been initiated and the index should be able to test thir next resistance levels at 825.75-827.50 on the SP, 1172.00-1174.00 on the Nasdaq and 445.90-447.00 on the Russell. If those are the highs and the markets fail to trade above them during today or tomorrow’s session, the way to the November lows will be open.

Initial support is just above yesterday’s late lows at 799.75-798.00 on the SP, 1139.00-1138.00 on the Nasdaq and 429.40-428.10 on the Russell, if the indexes do not hold a pullback to those levels yesterday’s huge sell off should continue at least to the next support areas at 793.50-791.50 on the SP, 1131.00-1129.50 on the Nasdaq and 424.50-423.70 on the Russell. If those are not aggressively bought look for the melt down to gain force as the indexes test their next areas at 787.00-785.00 on the SP, 1122.50-1121.00 on the Nasdaq and 419.10-418.60 on the Russell. GOOD LUCK.


.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 835.50-836.00 1186.00-1188.00 451.70-453.80
Resistance 3 825.75-827.50 1172.00-1174.00 445.90-447.00
Resistance 2 818.50-820.00 1164.00-1165.50 439.50-440.80
Resistance 1 812.50-813.50 1155.50-1156.00 435.80-436.50
PIVOT 823.00 1167.25 440.40
Support 1 799.75-798.00 1139.00-1138.00 429.40-428.10
Support 2 793.50-791.50 1131.00-1129.50 424.50-423.70
Support 3 787.00-785.00 1122.50-1121.00 419.10-418.60
Support 4 780.50-778.00 1112.00-1109.50 413.50-412.50


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
976.18 1368.27 517.74
960.07 1346.98 509.56
934.00 1312.50 496.30
907.93 1278.02 483.04
891.82 1256.73 474.86
865.75 1222.25 461.60
839.68 1187.77 448.34
831.63 1177.13 444.25
823.57 1166.48 440.16
797.50 1132.00 426.90
771.43 1097.52 413.64
755.32 1076.23 405.46
729.25 1041.75 392.20
703.18 1007.27 378.94
687.07 985.98 370.76



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 835.00 1184.50 447.10
AS DAILY LOW 767.00 1094.50 412.40​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

 

[arturo1]

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 22-January-2009


World’s banks collapsing and close to a global nationalization as Obama’s team readies a rescue plan, IBM Corp. providing a better than expected profit outlook for 2009 after reporting strong fourth quarter earnings, United Technologies topping earnings consensus, GE fourth quarter sales down 26%, Apple rallies after record sales, NAHB housing market index hitting a new low and Treasury nominee Geithner pledging aggressive action to get economy moving result in a positive session after Tuesday’s huge sell off.


ECONOMIC DATA
8;30 AM Building Permits
8:30 AM Housing Starts
8:30 AM Initial Claims


YESTERDAY’S MARKET
After Tuesday’s huge sell off where the SP posted its daily low at 797.50, markets rallied during the nightly Globex session with the E-mini SP starting the day at 815.50. After a mild pullback to 814.00 and with the Nasdaq joining the move, the SP pushed to a new intraday high at 817.25, just below the 818.00 Globex highs. Then, the SP pulled back to 811.00, just above our updated support area from where it moved back up testing the Globex highs at 918.00 and pushing a bit higher to 820.25. As the new Treasury Secretary started his speech, the SP pulled back to 813.50 and bounced to 818.50. A small double top at that level resulted in another pullback, this time just below our support 808.50 area. The SP bounced a couple of points where sellers stepped in pushing the index down to 800.50. The SP bounced to 806.50, backed off to 802.25 and pushed higher to 812.75 where the rally attempt fail resulting in another pullback that managed to hold at 807.50 giving way for another bounce, this time to 814.00 where the move topped. Another pullback held our updated support levels at 807.00 where buyers stepped in pushing the index up to 816.00, traded in a narrow range and finally broke higher reaching 818.75. As the slow struggling rally continued the SP finally pushed higher reaching 824.50 while the Nasdaq matched its early 1164.50 highs. After a few additional attempts to break higher where the SP and Nasdaq only moved one tick higher and the Dow futures contract fail short of breaking above 8100. After trading in a narrow range near the highs, the indexes finally pushed higher gaining some additional momentum with the SP reaching 830.50 and the Nasdaq 1174.75. A late pullback to 824.50 was met by buyers pushing the SP to a new high at 833.75 and continuing up to 838.50 closing near the highs. For the day, the SP gain 30.75 points ending the session at 836.75, the Nasdaq advanced 34.00 points and settled at 1181.50 and the Russell closed higher by 21.1 points at 453.70.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Last Tuesday I wrote:“ Yesterday’s broad based sell off and continuation downward move was done after the SP broke below the obvious support around 828.00-826.00 where a series of lows were seen during the last two months, after the November lows. With everybody hoping that a rally could get develop for the President Obama’s inauguration act, only a “suckers” rally that left some early birds trapped during Sunday’s Globex session at levels above the 850.00 area was what the markets were able to do. Yesterday was a wide range session where markets broke below the last two month consolidation. If this last down leg will be the one that will exhaust the bear trend, the SP should break below the November lows and probably reach the 700.00 area or lower. However, this bear market has been everything but normal, and if the index is capable to hold yesterday’s lows on a close and run above the 865.75 where the nightly high left an open gap, the next bear market rally could be much stronger than everybody will be expecting, and I am taking about another test of the most recent highs above the 950.00 area on the SP and 9400 on the Dow. Am I mad? It may be, but the madness of the current markets could give way for such a move. The key obviously will be that yesterday’s lows remain intact for today’s close and that the next countertrend rally, if it happens exceeds five days, that is valid if yesterday’s lows exhausted the current move. After yesterday’s huge sell off, there is a chance that the indexes will consolidate during today’s trading session before the next strong move happens, anything but this or a strong reversal resulting from an early low or an opening upside gap will result in additional weakness and selling pressure despite that markets are oversold at the current levels. So, markets are at the crossroads with not other chances that a strong bounce or a test of the November lows.”

We came into yesterday’s session looking for a positive opening as the markets try to show some signs of life after Tuesday’s huge sell off. The Globex high and higher opening, almost 20.00 points above Tuesday’s lows placed the indexes in a good position for a strong reversal, but get sold strongly pushing the indexes down for a successful test of Tuesday’s lows. This test may be seen as the first attempt of another strong countertrend move after the strong sell off seen during the last ten days, and if it manages to last more than five trading sessions could surprise by reaching the 950.00 area. Yesterday’s consolidation and correction rally was expected as it was an “inside day”, the early sell off attempts managed to found support above Tuesday’s lows and if we want to be optimistic markets could be in the process of building a base for an upcoming strong rally, however, the downtrend has been very strong and the markets have a long way to go before calling a short term low.
As the rally came from a successful test of Tuesday’s lows posting a small double bottom, and closed above the 830.50 previous support and now resistance areas, has left the indexes in a strong position, however, if today we have some additional sideways trading and not a continuation pattern, markets will still have a chance to go for another test of the lows. Meanwhile the obstacles for this rally to continue are multiple, fundamental and technical. Many resistance levels will have to get exceeded only to place the SP on a neutral position, 847.00-850.00, 863.00 and then 870.00.
The pattern is clearer in the Nasdaq, multiple test of the 1140.00-1138.00 lows has created a floor for that index, and they have held any sell off attempt, the last thing is a false break below 1138.00 that has been already reversed. More strength could be seen in that index above the 1205.00 and 1220.00 areas. The Dow has been the weaker, and it can continue to test the 8000 level while facing many resistance areas at 8300, 8400 and 8550.
So for today’s trading session, the important fact will be for the indexes to show additional strength, despite any economic news, and after yesterday’s “strong rally” this appears to be the higher probability. Should this rally fail in the next 3 days and resume the downtrend, or it will continue higher, and as I wrote last Tuesday, go for another test of the 950.00 level? We should have the answer during next week. Meanwhile we can expect the markets to try and move higher, so buying the deeps could be the way to go during today’s trading session. Try to maintain a long position when the markets trade in positive territory.


TODAY’S SESSION
Initial resistance is at 841.00-843.50 on the SP, 1186.00-1188.00 on the Nasdaq and 456.00-456.90 on the Russell, trading above them could indicate a continuation of yesterday’s rally pushing the indexes up to their next levels at 848.00-850.00 on the SP 1195.00-1196.00 on the Nasdaq and 459.80-460.30 on the Russell. If the rally stalls there look for some profit taking, around 12.00 points on the SP, however if the markets push above them, in particular during the last two hours of the session, look for some more short covering that could move markets up to 856.50-857.50 on the SP, 1205.00-1206.00 on the Nasdaq and 463.50-465.00 on the Russell.

There is good support at yesterday’s last hour pivot point around 833.50-831.00 on the SP, 1177.50-1176.00 on the Nasdaq and 451.00-449.70 on the Russell. If those can not hold, yesterday’s rally will be on jeopardy as the markets will be on their way for our second support areas at 828.00-826.00 on the SP, 1172.00-1170.00 on the Nasdaq and 445.60-445.10 on the Russell. These are extremely important areas to maintain this bounce alive. Failing to rally strong from those levels will place the bears in control and the indexes could reach 818.50-816.50 on the SP, 1160.00-1158.00 on the Nasdaq and 440.80-439.60 on the Russell. GOOD LUCK


.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 863.25-864.00 1212.00-1214.00 468.00-469.70
Resistance 3 856.50-857.50 1205.00-1206.00 463.50-465.00
Resistance 2 848.00-850.00 1195.00-1196.00 459.80-460.30
Resistance 1 841.00-843.50 1186.00-1188.00 456.00-456.90
PIVOT 825.25 1168.75 447.00
Support 1 833.50-831.00 1177.50-1176.00 451.00-449.70
Support 2 828.00-826.00 1172.00-1170.00 445.60-445.10
Support 3 818.50-816.50 1160.00-1158.00 440.80-439.60
Support 4 812.00-810.50 1153.50-1152.00 437.50-435.70


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
899.98 1257.81 505.97
891.02 1247.19 499.03
876.50 1230.00 487.80
861.98 1212.81 476.57
853.02 1202.19 469.63
838.50 1185.00 458.40
823.98 1167.81 447.17
819.50 1162.50 443.70
815.02 1157.19 440.23
800.50 1140.00 429.00
785.98 1122.81 417.77
777.02 1112.19 410.83
762.50 1095.00 399.60
747.98 1077.81 388.37
739.02 1067.19 381.43



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 856.50 1205.75 470.80
AS DAILY LOW 818.50 1160.00 441.40​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.

 

[arturo1]

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 23-January-2009


Initial Claims at 589K, continuing claims at 4.6 million, its highest since 1982 recession and Building Permits and Housings Starts at record low levels; indications that GE will cut its dividend and will need government assistance. Market falls but closes with a partial recovery.


ECONOMIC DATA
None


YESTERDAY’S MARKET
Following a positive Globex session where the SP reached 844.00 and the Nasdaq 1202.25, markets started to move lower a few hours before the opening making lows as the economic data was released and moving much lower as Microsoft earning get released. The E-mini SP opened the session at 820.00, pulled back to 818.50 and rallied to 824.75 where the early bounce failed. Leaded by the weakness in the Nasdaq, the SP pushed down to 816.50 where another strong bounce topped at 824.50 resulting in another visit to the lows. As the trading session continued the SP kept trading between the 816.50 lows and the 824.50 intraday resistance levels while posting in the chart a new marginal low at 815.00. As strong support continues to show at the lows, the SP bounced back to 820.00 and sold off to new lows at 813.00. The index bounced to 818.75 just to fail once more to trade above my 820.50 intraday resistance area from where it sold off strong reaching 807.50 where the move bottomed. The SP rallied to 813.50, and once that level got exceeded, the index pushed all the way up to the 820.00 level where the rally stalled resulting in a pullback that held 813.50. As the session continued, the SP traded between the 813.00 and 820.00 areas and once the buyers stepped in the index moved up all the way to 835.50 that in the past acted as a pivot points. After failing to break higher the index get reversed pushing to the 830.00 level, however, bears gained control and the SP fell to 815.50 where a double bottom gave way to a late short covering rally that topped at 830.00 from where the market pulled back into the close.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Last Tuesday I wrote: “Yesterday’s consolidation and correction rally was expected as it was an “inside day”, the early sell off attempts managed to found support above Tuesday’s lows and if we want to be optimistic markets could be in the process of building a base for an upcoming strong rally, however, the downtrend has been very strong and the markets have a long way to go before calling a short term low. As the rally came from a successful test of Tuesday’s lows posting a small double bottom, and closed above the 830.50 previous support and now resistance areas, has left the indexes in a strong position, however, if today we have some additional sideways trading and not a continuation pattern, markets will still have a chance to go for another test of the lows. Meanwhile the obstacles for this rally to continue are multiple, fundamental and technical. Many resistance levels will have to get exceeded only to place the SP on a neutral position, 847.00-850.00, 863.00 and then 870.00. The pattern is clearer in the Nasdaq, multiple test of the 1140.00-1138.00 lows has created a floor for that index, and they have held any sell off attempt, the last thing is a false break below 1138.00 that has been already reversed. More strength could be seen in that index above the 1205.00 and 1220.00 areas. The Dow has been the weaker, and it can continue to test the 8000 level while facing many resistance areas at 8300, 8400 and 8550.”

We came into yesterday’s session looking for some additional strength or a consolidation move as we considered that the markets could be building a base for another rally attempt. The early sell off that posted a higher low and resulted in another “inside day” gave longs and shorts trading opportunities.
If we look at the daily charts we should come to the conclusion that anything can happen at this moment, on the bullish side, the markets has successfully tested their most recent lows and have shown rising volume with buying pressure, they got another successful test of the 800.00 on the SP 8000 on the Dow and 1140.00 on the Nasdaq. HOWEVER, many time these kinds of consolidations, when happen in bear markets result in additional weakness, in this case, we could see another false break of the levels I just mentioned that give way to a strong reversal rally, or finally a break below them that take the markets to their next lower levels, at least 750.00 on the SP, 7500 on the Dow and 1060.00 on the Nasdaq. So with this lack of direction, the next move can be to either side, following the 800.00 level in the SP together with 8000 in the Dow for the downside and, 844.00 and 8300 to the upside, until they get broken for the next substantial move is what it should be done until we see some continuation of any move. The most probable scenario seem to be another test of the support levels, and then if they hold, the indexes will be in a strong position for another visit to the January highs; if that not happen and the markets fail to rally from their daily support levels, them the downtrend will get resumed and markets will go for a test of the November lows.
Traders are very nervous about the current earnings reports, banks, tech companies and industrials, all of them under strong pressure, today, GE will be reporting, if the numbers get released before the opening that should rule the first half of the session. Keep a close eye on the opening price, not at yesterday’s settlements, and use that level as an intraday pivot for market direction.

TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance at 828.50-829.50 on the SP, 1177.00-1178.00 on the Nasdaq and 446.40-447.20 on the Russell. All the time that the indexes are trading below those levels, sellers remain in full control. Trading above them will indicate a test of the at 833.00-834.50 on the SP, 1184.00-1185.50 on the Nasdaq and 449.80-451.00 on the Russell. Be ready for a reversal if the indexes fail to break higher, if they do it, only 840.00-841.00 on the SP, 1201.00-1203.00 on the Nasdaq and 457.90-458.60 on the Russell will be the last obstacle for a possible upside breakout..

There is support at 822.00-821.00 on the SP, 1167.00-1165.00 on the NQ and 441.60-440.10 on the Russell. Those levels are very important and if the open is below them and later in the session they get exceeded look for a good rally. But if markets are weak, then yesterday’s late lows at 818.00-815.50 on the SP, 1161.00-1159.50 on the Nasdaq and 438.00-436.90 on the Russell will get tested. Failing to hold there could accelerate the downtrend pushing markets to 811.00-810.00 on the SP, 1152.00-1150.00 on the Nasdaq and 431.30-429.40 on the Russell. If those can not hold, look for another test of the 800.00’s. GOOD LUCK.


.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 844.50-845.50 1212.00-1213.00 462.30-463.50
Resistance 3 840.00-841.00 1201.00-1203.00 457.90-458.60
Resistance 2 833.00-834.50 1184.00-1185.50 449.80-451.00
Resistance 1 828.50-829.50 1177.00-1178.00 446.40-447.20
PIVOT 825.75 1173.50 445.10
Support 1 822.00-821.00 1167.00-1165.00 441.60-440.10
Support 2 818.00-815.50 1161.00-1159.50 438.00-436.90
Support 3 811.00-810.00 1152.00-1150.00 431.30-429.40
Support 4 807.00-805.50 1142.00-1141.00 426.50-425.00


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
903.06 1293.26 502.04
894.44 1279.99 495.76
880.50 1258.50 485.60
866.56 1237.01 475.44
857.94 1223.74 469.16
844.00 1202.25 459.00
830.06 1180.76 448.84
825.75 1174.13 445.70
821.44 1167.49 442.56
807.50 1146.00 432.40
793.56 1124.51 422.24
784.94 1111.24 415.96
771.00 1089.75 405.80
757.06 1068.26 395.64
748.44 1054.99 389.36



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 834.75 1187.25 451.50
AS DAILY LOW 798.25 1131.00 424.90​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

 

[arturo1]

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 26-January-2009


Google delivers good looking results. Microsoft to cut 5000 jobs. Markets traded down during last week. GE reported as expected with a 46% decline in profits but not cutting dividends and expecting to keep its triple A rating. AMD, Capital One and Xerox shares retreat. Markets started the session sharply lower but managed to recover most of the losses.


WEEKLY PIVOTS FOR WEEK ENDING 30- January-2008

R3 897.00
R2 861.00
R1 842.00
PP 829.00
S1 817.00
S2 792.50
S3 776.25

ECONOMIC DATA
10:00 AM Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM Leading Indicators

WEEKLY RECAP
This was another negative week for the markets as concerns about recession and earnings growth. Last shortened holiday week posted its high during Sunday’s Globex nightly session reaching 865.75. The Martin Luther King Globex session where the regular markets remained close pushed the SP down closing at 840.00. The real action started on Tuesday, President Obama’s inauguration event resulted in a huge sell off on all the markets. Early news about RBS bailout by the British Government gave reasons for the U.S. bank shares to trade down; Citigroup and Bank of America hit their lowest levels since the early 1990s, also State Street Corp said it needs to raise capital as its shares fell as much as 55 percent in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, wiping out $8.7 billion of market value and dragging the stock market sharply lower. Fiat announced that it will take a 35% stake in Chrysler in exchange for technology and global marketing, 355 for nothing, that just indicates how desperate the situation is for the automakers is. For the first time since November the SP traded at the 800.00 mark. For the day, the SP lost 42.50 points and settled at 806.00, the Nasdaq ended lower by 49.50 points at 1147.50 and the Russell lost 31.00 ending the session at 432.60 The Dow closed below the 8000 mark at 7949 losing 4%, 332 points. Wednesday’s session gave way to a bounce from oversold conditions, the session started with a positive tone, IBM 2009 positive outlook and UTX topping earnings consensus, a bounce in the banking shares, Apple record sales gave investors a bit of confidence. The NAHB housing market index posted a new low while Treasury nominee Geithner pledged aggressive action to get the economy moving. Despite rumors that GE will report an ugly fourth quarter numbers markets closed with strong note. The SP gain 30.75 points ending the session at 836.75, the Nasdaq advanced 34.00 points and settled at 1181.50 and the Russell closed higher by 21.1 points at 453.70. Thursday’s session showed the fragility of the previous day rally, not too much reasons to be a buyer, Initial claims at 589K, Continuing claims reaching 6.4 million and Housing Starts and Building Permits at record lows kept the markets under pressure despite wild intraday reversals, on the corporate area, Microsoft reporting below expectations and ready to cut 5000 jobs, and indications that GE will cut its dividend and may need government assistance gave way to a negative session, the SP lost 11.25 points and closed at 825.50, the Nasdaq lost 9.25 points ending the session at 1172.25 and the Russell closed lower 9.70 points at 444.00. The Dow lost 105 points closing at 8122. Friday’s Globex session markets traded sharply down. The previous night, Google reported not so bad numbers for a recession but heavy losses in the world markets pushed down the futures contracts to near the worst levels of the week. News that the U.K. economy shrank more than economists forecast during the fourth quarter in the biggest contraction since 1980, with the financial crises bringing the banks near insolvency, and the British pound collapsing against the yen and the dollar. GE reported as expected, not cutting dividends and expecting to keep its triple A rating. After trading below the 800.00 mark before the opening, all the indexes were able to pare most of their losses as investors showed some buying interest since the beginning of the session. For the day, the SP lost two points and settled at 823.50, the Nasdaq ended lower by 8.00 points at 1164.25 and the Russell lost 4.60 points closing the session at 439.40. The Dow lost 45 points and settled at 8077.



FRIDAY’S MARKETS
Friday’s action started during the Globex session, a sharply downside move pushed the SP to 801.25 from where the index bounced to 805.50 before GE earnings were released and once they were announced showing no surprises, the SP continue higher to 811.75 but two hours later was making a low at 799.50. The E-mini SP started the session at 804.25 from where it bounced to 807.50, get sold to 801.50 and rallied to 809.00, all this in the first seven minutes of the session. As the early short covering continued, the SP reached my resistance 811.00 area from where it pulled back to 805.00 and rallied to 813.25 from where it pulled back a few points and then placed a new intraday high at 817.00 where the move stalled. As the index failed to break higher, sellers came in pushing the SP down to 808.00. As our intraday support are held the pullback, the SP pushed up to a new intraday high at 819.50. as the rally continued and the shorts started to cover, the SP reached my pivot 825.25 area from where the index pulled back to 818.50, bounced back to a lower high and sold off to 813.00. After holding our support level, the SP bounced all the way up to the highs, where a triple top gave way to another pullback, this time to 816.00. Unable to push lower the index resumed its uptrend reaching 832.25 and then my upside objective at 836.00 where once more a lower high resulted in some profit taking that pushed the index all the way down to 821.50, bounced back to 827.00, tested the 821.50 level a few times and rallied back to 828.00, pulled back once more and repeated the previous bounce just to get sold into the close. For the day, the SP lost two points and settled at 823.50, the Nasdaq ended lower by 8.00 points at 1164.25 and the Russell lost 4.60 points closing the session at 439.40. The Dow lost 45 points and settled at 8077.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Last Friday I wrote:” If we look at the daily charts we should come to the conclusion that anything can happen at this moment, on the bullish side, the markets has successfully tested their most recent lows and have shown rising volume with buying pressure, they got another successful test of the 800.00 on the SP 8000 on the Dow and 1140.00 on the Nasdaq. HOWEVER, many time these kinds of consolidations, when happen in bear markets result in additional weakness, in this case, we could see another false break of the levels I just mentioned that give way to a strong reversal rally, or finally a break below them that take the markets to their next lower levels, at least 750.00 on the SP, 7500 on the Dow and 1060.00 on the Nasdaq. So with this lack of direction, the next move can be to either side, following the 800.00 level in the SP together with 8000 in the Dow for the downside and, 844.00 and 8300 to the upside, until they get broken for the next substantial move is what it should be done until we see some continuation of any move. The most probable scenario seem to be another test of the support levels, and then if they hold, the indexes will be in a strong position for another visit to the January highs; if that not happen and the markets fail to rally from their daily support levels, them the downtrend will get resumed and markets will go for a test of the November lows. Keep a close eye on the opening price, not at yesterday’s settlements, and use that level as an intraday pivot for market direction. “


We came into Friday’s session waiting for the possibility of a false break below the 800.00 area on the SP that get reversed resulting in a strong rally, we also recommended to follow the opening price for market direction; we got both, an initial sell off, most of it done during the Globex session resulting in a marginal low below the 800.00 area, and the initial pullback below the 804.50 opening price that lasted less than two minutes and once it get exceeded markets never looked back.
So we are almost as Friday, the strong support seen around the 800.00 level on the SP and 1140.00-1136.00 on the Nasdaq has been able to hold, now, for a fourth consecutive session. The 8000 on the futures Dow has been rejected a few times, but the cash index has hold above it. Will the indexes continue to build out within the range before making a breakout? Or maybe, they are trading the last sessions building a base for an upcoming rally? Those are the only two probabilities, and both favor the upside unless the strong support areas at the levels I just mentioned get decisively broken.
Friday’s early reversal was done with a lot of short covering and some mild buying activity and the late sell off can be qualified as normal for a Friday as traders do not find a reason to stay long for the weekend. The key, for a resume of a countertrend rally will be to see some follow through during the next two sessions pushing the indexes up for a close above 844.00 on the SP 1210.00 on the NQ and 8300 on the Dow, if that happens, we could be ready for another bear market rally. Obviously a close below the support areas will point to a test of the November lows and maybe more. So at this moment there is more risk taking a short position than a long shot, but I don’t mean by that that the markets have a reason for a sustainable rally, but perhaps, in front of this week FOMC rate decision some short covering could be seen, and if the markets finally move up, then a second degree countertrend, a 7-10 days rally that could find a top before Friday next week when the January unemployment numbers get released, or fail this coming Friday when the GDP preliminary number for the fourth quarter is issued.
On the other side of the coin, markets have not been able to trade above the previous day’s high, and any possible bounce at this moment looks only as short covering as a result of the inability to break the support areas, so breaking below them could result in a fast down move.
Last Friday we recommended to trade using the opening price as a pivot, for today, I will like to see the markets finally trading in positive territory, or holding the first hour lows in order to get long, and of curse, I will be very careful with any new short, the markets is already down seven days and it may be ready for a bounce that finally breaks this lower highs pattern.

TODAY’S SESSION
There is initial resistance at 826.75-828.50 on the SP, 1167.50-1169.00 on the Nasdaq and 441.60-442.70 on the Russell. Trading above them will push the indexes to levels just below last Friday’s highs on the SP, 831.50-833.00, and 1173.00-1174.00 on the Nasdaq and 445.10-446.00 on the Russell. If markets fail there it’s probable that at least we’ll see a pullback to our first support areas, but of both, the SP and Nasdaq break higher, expect the move to continue and probably reach 838.00-839.00 on the SP, 1178.00-1180.00 on the Nasdaq and 450.60-452.40 on the Russell. Trading above them will point for a test of the last double top around 844.00 on the SP and last Friday’s highs on the Nasdaq.


There is support at 820.00-818.50 on the SP, 1159.75-1157.50 on the NQ and 437.20-435.80 on the Russell. If markets are strong those may be able to hold, but if we’ll see more back and forth action, look for a test of 815.00-813.50 on the SP, 1153.00-11515.50 on the Nasdaq and 432.80-432.00 on the Russell. If those can not hold, then the next support areas at 810.00-808.50 on the SP, 1145.00-1144.00 on the Nasdaq and 429.10-427.80 on the Russell will have to make the job or another test of the most recent daily lows could happen. GOOD LUCK.
.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 843.00-844.50 1189.50-1191.00 458.80-459.20
Resistance 3 838.00-839.00 1178.00-1180.00 450.60-452.40
Resistance 2 831.50-833.00 1173.00-1174.00 445.10-446.00
Resistance 1 826.75-828.50 1167.50-1169.00 441.60-442.70
PIVOT 819.75 1165.50 438.10
Support 1 820.00-818.50 1159.75-1157.50 437.20-435.80
Support 2 815.00-813.50 1153.00-1151.50 432.80-432.00
Support 3 810.00-808.50 1145.00-1144.00 429.10-427.80
Support 4 804.50-803.00 1138.50-1136.00 422.80-421.50


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
895.06 1271.09 487.65
886.44 1259.41 482.05
872.50 1240.50 473.00
858.56 1221.59 463.95
849.94 1209.91 458.35
836.00 1191.00 449.30
822.06 1172.09 440.25
817.75 1166.25 437.45
813.44 1160.41 434.65
799.50 1141.50 425.60
785.56 1122.59 416.55
776.94 1110.91 410.95
763.00 1092.00 401.90
749.06 1073.09 392.85
740.44 1061.41 387.25



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 829.75 1177.50 444.00
AS DAILY LOW 793.25 1128.00 420.70​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

 

[arturo1]

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 27-January-2009


Pfizer buying Wyeth, Caterpillar reporting lower than expecting earnings and announcing a 20K jobs cut, McDonalds 4cents above consensus, Barclays rallying on news that it won’t need to rise additional capital, Home Depot to cut 7K jobs. Leading Indicators up by .3% and December Existing Home sales up by 6.5% result in a positive close for the U.S. equity markets.


ECONOMIC DATA
10:00 AM Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM S&P Case Shiller Index


YESTERDAY’S MARKET
After recovering from much lower prices during the Globex session where the SP reached 810.75, the E-mini SP started the session at 831.50 and after pulling back one single point pushed up strongly reaching 842.25 from where the index pulled back to 836.50 where additional buying was seen pushing the SP up to 849.50. Once the index made its early highs and the rally stalled, the SP pulled back to 843.50, traded in a narrow range near those levels and pulled back to 840.50. The E-mini SP bounced back to 844.50 but failed to break higher after a few attempts abs traded in a narrow range between that levels an 838.50. Once the lows fail to hold and the other indexes lost their steam bears regain control pushing the SP down all the way to 824.00. The SP bounced strong reaching 840.50 but got sold into the end of the session. For the day, the SP added 7.25 points ending the session at 830.75, the Nasdaq added 15.25 points and settled at 1179.50 and the Russell added 6.70 ending the day at 446.10. The Dow closed higher by 38.00 points at 8112.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Last Tuesday I wrote: “So we are almost as Friday, the strong support seen around the 800.00 level on the SP and 1140.00-1136.00 on the Nasdaq has been able to hold, now, for a fourth consecutive session. The 8000 on the futures Dow has been rejected a few times, but the cash index has hold above it. Will the indexes continue to build out within the range before making a breakout? Or maybe, they are trading the last sessions building a base for an upcoming rally? Those are the only two probabilities, and both favor the upside unless the strong support areas at the levels I just mentioned get decisively broken. Friday’s early reversal was done with a lot of short covering and some mild buying activity and the late sell off can be qualified as normal for a Friday as traders do not find a reason to stay long for the weekend. The key, for a resume of a countertrend rally will be to see some follow through during the next two sessions pushing the indexes up for a close above 844.00 on the SP 1210.00 on the NQ and 8300 on the Dow, if that happens, we could be ready for another bear market rally. Obviously a close below the support areas will point to a test of the November lows and maybe more. So at this moment there is more risk taking a short position than a long shot, but I don’t mean by that that the markets have a reason for a sustainable rally, but perhaps, in front of this week FOMC rate decision some short covering could be seen, and if the markets finally move up, then a second degree countertrend, a 7-10 days rally that could find a top before Friday next week when the January unemployment numbers get released, or fail this coming Friday when the GDP preliminary number for the fourth quarter is issued.”

After seven negative sessions, markets were finally able to close on positive territory despite the choppy trading conditions seen during the trading session, not easy to be a bull and npt easy to sell the indexes if you are a day trader. Yesterday’s early run was done, as expected with light volumes. And it was more like shorts covering their position after the strong opening. The SP finally broke above the 844.00 area that I mentioned yesterday and last Friday, however the lack of participation and commitment to hold above that level for the close was more than obvious.
So, despite the fact that the SP was able to break the recent trading pattern of lower highs, its still trading between the most recent ranges, and even if we can see some more upside pressure, the selling activity seen at the highs still indicates that at every rally, bear are waiting to take advantage of it. The action in the Nasdaq and in the Dow is similar, both indexes continue to built between the trading range and this can continue for a few more days until a decisive breakout occurs.
Yesterday’s high will have to get exceeded with strength in order for the markets to try and break higher, obviously, 850.00 on the SP 1204.00’s on the Nasdaq and 8250 on the Dow are the next levels that will have to get beaten for the indexes to move higher in this daily bounce attempt that can not be qualified right now as a change in direction, that will be possible only if the current rally last for more than five trading sessions. Obviously, the first step will be to see some follow through for yesterday’s move.
For today’s trading session, all the time that yesterday’s highs remain intact or just get tested, look for more sideways action, sell near resistance areas, maybe yesterday’s highs looking for a double top, and try to get long if the SP pushes 20.00 points down from its high.


TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance at 834.00-836.00 on the SP, 1183.00-1184.50 on the Nasdaq and 448.50-450.20 on the Russell. Breaking above them will indicate a test of the next levels at 841.50-842.00 on the SP, 1189.00-1191.00 on the Nasdaq and 453.20-454.70 on the Russell. Yesterday’s late bounce failed to break above them, so be ready for a reversal if a rally fails there, if they get finally broken look for resistance around yesterday’s highs at 849.00-851.00 on the SP, 1196.00-1198.00 on the Nasdaq and 458.60-460.30 on the Russell. Too many bulls or short will be needed to break above those areas.

There is support above yesterday’s lows at 838.00-827.00 on the SP, 1174.00-1172.50 on the Nasdaq and 443.70-441.80 on the Russell. If those can not hold, look for weakness to be present as the indexes test the 824.00-822.50 on the SP, 1168.090-1166.00 on the Nasdaq and 439.00-438.50 on the Russell. A double bottom at those levels could give way to a 15.00- to 18.00 point rally on the SP, but if they fail to hold, look for the markets to continue and move lower reaching 818.00-815.50 on the SP, 1160.00-1158.50 on the Nasdaq and 432.40-431.80 on the Russell. GOOD LUCK.


.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 859.50-861.00 1204.00-1206.00 464.00-464.90
Resistance 3 849.00-851.00 1196.00-1198.00 458.60-460.30
Resistance 2 841.50-842.00 1189.00-1191.00 453.20-454.70
Resistance 1 834.00-836.00 1183.00-1184.50 448.50-450.20
PIVOT 830.00 1175.75 445.30
Support 1 828.00-827.00 1174.00-1172.50 443.70-441.80
Support 2 824.00-822.50 1168.00-1166.00 439.00-438.50
Support 3 818.00-815.50 1160.00-1158.50 432.40-431.80
Support 4 811.00-809.50 1150.50-1148.00 429.60-428.70


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
912.20 1289.43 499.54
903.05 1276.57 493.46
888.25 1255.75 483.60
873.45 1234.93 473.74
864.30 1222.07 467.66
849.50 1201.25 457.80
834.70 1180.43 447.94
830.13 1174.00 444.90
825.55 1167.57 441.86
810.75 1146.75 432.00
795.95 1125.93 422.14
786.80 1113.07 416.06
772.00 1092.25 406.20
757.20 1071.43 396.34
748.05 1058.57 390.26



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 859.50 1217.50 464.90
AS DAILY LOW 820.75 1163.00 439.10​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

 

[arturo1]

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 28-January-2009
DuPont swings to losses; Delta misses estimates, Corning to cut 3500 jobs. S&P Case Shiller shows that home values post an 18.2% annual drop in November and Consumer Confidence falls again to record low. Markets traded quietly closing with gains for the session. After hours, yahoo and Sun Microsystems report losses and looming outlook for the next quarter. Rumors about the creation of a “Bad Bank” institution to absorb banks toxic assets gave way to a strong rally during the Globex session.


ECONOMIC DATA
10:35 AM Crude Inventories
2:15 PM FOMC Policy Statements


YESTERDAY’S MARKET
A positive Globex session for the markets as during all the night the different indexes traded in positive territory. The E-mini SP started the session at 837.00 and pulled back to 836.00 where buyers stepped in pushing the index near the Globex high at 844.00 where the rally failed. As the Consumer Confidence numbers get released, the SP moved down all the way to 832.00, bounced back a couple of points and pushed to a new low at 831.25 from where it bounced back up to 834.50 and continued higher to 837.75.The index then pulled back to 833.50 rallied to 837.00 and fell to test the lows at 831.75. after holding the daily lows, the SP bounced back to 837.75, posted small double top and finally break higher reaching 840.50. after spending a few minutes just below that level, and leaded by the strength in the Nasdaq, the SP continue higher reaching 843.50. As the rally lost its momentum just below the highs, seller stepped in and the index pulled back to 838.00 back to the 840.00, another sell off attempt also failed at that level just to bounce immediately above the 842.00 level. After breaking above that level and without any selling coming into the markets the SP pushed higher for a new intraday high at 847.50. Failing to break above yesterdays high at 849.50 resulted in a set back to 841.00 from where the index bounced once more posting a lower high. The rest of the session the indexes traded on a sideways pattern between the daily highs and the 836.00 support level. For the day the SP added 8.50 points closing the session at 839.25, the Nasdaq gained 6.25 points and settled at 1185.75 and the Russell closed higher by 5.00 points at 451.10. .


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Last Tuesday I wrote: “So, despite the fact that the SP was able to break the recent trading pattern of lower highs, its still trading between the most recent ranges, and even if we can see some more upside pressure, the selling activity seen at the highs still indicates that at every rally, bear are waiting to take advantage of it. The action in the Nasdaq and in the Dow is similar, both indexes continue to built between the trading range and this can continue for a few more days until a decisive breakout occurs. Yesterday’s high will have to get exceeded with strength in order for the markets to try and break higher, obviously, 850.00 on the SP 1204.00’s on the Nasdaq and 8250 on the Dow are the next levels that will have to get beaten for the indexes to move higher in this daily bounce attempt that can not be qualified right now as a change in direction, that will be possible only if the current rally last for more than five trading sessions. Obviously, the first step will be to see some follow through for yesterday’s move.”
Yesterday’s positive session and narrows ranges have place the markets ready for a breakout move, that with rumors that the Federal Government will create an institution to absorb the system’s toxic assets and finally clean the balance sheet of the banks, has resulted in a strong nightly rally that may lead, if it hold, to a sharply higher opening leaving open a big gap. Last Monday. I pointed as an upside objective the 856.00-858.00 resistance areas on the SP, and the index has already reached them during the night.
This strong rally could give way to some early profit taking, and I consider that a strong pullback will be a good buying opportunity for today’s trading session where the FED will announce its next move and its future policy. A rally during today will be the third trading session where the markets show gains; during the last two days, I wrote about the possibility of a pre FOMC meeting rally, but I also quoted that it will have to exceed five trading sessions in order to break the downtrend pattern. The first upside objective has already been tested during the Globex session, and if it holds, the move can push the SP up to 866.00-868.00, a Fibonacci level, and if the rally continues during the next sessions exceeding that level, the next objective will be around 898.50.
So, markets may be ready for another upside push, however, this bear market rally that has more upside room, its only a bear market rally which will probably fail and push the markets to new lows during the next weeks.
For today’s trading session besides the description of what should happen in this FOMC day, the strong opening should lead to some profit taking, but some margin calls developed during the night could result in an early pop a few points above the Globex session, so be ready to take a short position whit a tight stop during the first part of the session, later in the day, if we don’t get any bad surprise, be ready to get long, in particular if the Fed’s announcement gives way to a sell off.
The early part of the session will be influenced by the economic data, if those are not worst than expected we should see some additional short covering in front of the interest rate decision. Once the first 2 hours of trading finish, the market should enter in a “Mexican Siesta or midday sleep” period where nothing happens and everybody sleeps a couple of hours or go for and early lunch. Then 15-20 minutes before the announcement, the early move should get reversed as traders start to lighten positions. When the FOMC decision comes out, we should see three different moves during the next 40 minutes, an initial impulsive move that fails, a reversal of that move and the final trend move which is the one that we traders try to follow. So only if you have big bucks and wide stops get involve in the first two moves, but take into account that if you are lucky and you go in the right direction, be quick to take your profits. Anyway, stops must be wider than in a regular trading session.
Take also in account that many times the resulted move seen during the FOMC rate decision session gets reversed the next day starting a trend pattern that can last for a few days

TODAY’S SESSION
As markets appear to be poised for a strong opening, our resistance levels have become support, so, the first levels area t 842.00-843.50 on the SP, 1188.00-1190.00 on the Nasdaq and 452.20-453.20 on the Russell, above them, we have 847.50-848.00 on the SP, 1196.00-1198.00 on the Nasdaq and 457.20-458.00 on the Russell. Our third resistance areas which have been already tested during the Globex session are at 855.50-856.00 on the SP, 1205.00-1206.00 on the Nasdaq and 460.00-461.80 on the Russell. Those are very important levels and should offer good resistance if the opening take place close to them or once they get violated coming down from higher prices. But if the markets break later in the session above them, look for the SP to reach the 861.00 level and then 867.50 which is the 50% Fibonacci retracement between the January high and low.
There is strong support at 836.50-835.50 on the SP, 1181.00-1179.50 on the Nasdaq and 449.00-448.00 on the Russell. If the markets managed to sell off before or after the FOMC announcement, look at them as a good buying opportunity, the same is at the KEY next support areas at 831.00-830.00 on the SP, 1174.00-1172.00 on the Nasdaq and 445.70-444.90 on the Russell. Those were yesterday's lows, and a double bottom at those areas could result in a very strong rally, be ready to take the risk at those levels, however, if they fail, look for the markets to test their next support areas at 825.50-824.00 on the SP, 1163.50-1162.00 on the Nasdaq and442.00-440.30 on the Russell. GOOD LUCK.


.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 860.00-861.00 1211.50-1213.50 468.30-469.10
Resistance 3 855.50-856.00 1205.00-1206.00 460.00-461.80
Resistance 2 847.50-848.00 1196.00-1198.00 457.20-458.00
Resistance 1 842.00-843.50 1188.00-1190.00 452.20-453.20
PIVOT 839.25 1175.75 451.60
Support 1 836.50-835.50 1181.00-1179.50 449.00-448.00
Support 2 831.00-830.00 1174.00-1172.00 445.70-444.90
Support 3 825.50-824.00 1163.50-1162.00 442.00-440.30
Support 4 820.50-818.00 1156.00-1154.50 436.10-434.80


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
873.79 1239.08 475.78
869.96 1233.42 473.12
863.75 1224.25 468.80
857.54 1215.08 464.48
853.71 1209.42 461.82
847.50 1200.25 457.50
841.29 1191.08 453.18
839.38 1188.25 451.85
837.46 1185.42 450.52
831.25 1176.25 446.20
825.04 1167.08 441.88
821.21 1161.42 439.22
815.00 1152.25 434.90
808.79 1143.08 430.58
804.96 1137.42 427.92



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 851.50 1205.00 460.00
AS DAILY LOW 835.25 1181.00 448.70​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

 

[arturo1]

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 29-January-2009


SAP and Yahoo earnings exceeding estimates, Wells Fargo fist loss since 2001 but saying it won’t need additional TARP funds, rumors about the FDIC to create a Bad Bank to absorb billions of bank’s toxic assets, the positive vote in the House for Obama’s stimulus plan and the FED leaving rates unchanged and signaling that it will buy long term treasuries gave way to a huge rally in the U.S. equity markets.


ECONOMIC DATA
8:30 AM Initial Claims
8:30 AM Durable Orders
10:00 AM New Home sales


YESTERDAY’S MARKET
A huge rally during the Globex session pushed to indexes to a sharply higher opening. After reaching 863.75 during the night, the E-mini SP started the day at 860.00 and moved lower to 858.00 from where it bounced to 862.00. After trading in a narrow range during the first minutes of the session, the SP tried to push lower testing the previous low just to bounce once more to 863.00. Unable to break higher, the index pulled back, this time to 856.50 where buyers stepped in pushing the index up to a new intraday high at 865.75. As the markets continued to trade in a sideways pattern the SP pulled back to 861.00 and bounced a few points. The last pullback was able to reach 862.50. As the markets continue to hold and traders get ready for the FOMC Policy Statement to get release, the SP made a new high just at our 870.00 resistance area, but without any selling going on, shorts continued to cover the Sp reached a new high at 872.00. With a few minutes for the Fed’s news, the SP backed off to 868.00 and bounced back to wait for the announcement hanging near the daily highs. Once the news was released, the SP tested the 868.00 level and pushed to a new high at 876.00 from where it pulled back to 868.50 bounced above 871.00 and pushed down reaching 865.00 where it held. The SP rallied once more to 873.00 where the rally failed and markets started to trade lower, the sell off drove the SP down to 862.00 from where a good bounce started. The SP reached 870.50, pulled back to the 868.00 support level and pushed higher to 871.75 holding there into the end of the session. For the day, the SP added 32.25 points and settled at 871.50, the Nasdaq closed higher by 45.50 points at 1231.25 and the Russell ended higher by 21.20 points ending the session at 472.30. The Dow finally broke above thec8300 area closing higher by 200 points at 8375.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Yesterday I wrote: “Yesterday’s positive session and narrows ranges have place the markets ready for a breakout move, that with rumors that the Federal Government will create an institution to absorb the system’s toxic assets and finally clean the balance sheet of the banks, has resulted in a strong nightly rally that may lead, if it hold, to a sharply higher opening leaving open a big gap. Last Monday. I pointed as an upside objective the 856.00-858.00 resistance areas on the SP, and the index has already reached them during the night. This strong rally could give way to some early profit taking, and I consider that a strong pullback will be a good buying opportunity for today’s trading session where the FED will announce its next move and its future policy. A rally during today will be the third trading session where the markets show gains; during the last two days, I wrote about the possibility of a pre FOMC meeting rally, but I also quoted that it will have to exceed five trading sessions in order to break the downtrend pattern. The first upside objective has already been tested during the Globex session, and if it holds, the move can push the SP up to 866.00-868.00, a Fibonacci level, and if the rally continues during the next sessions exceeding that level, the next objective will be around 898.50.So, markets may be ready for another upside push, this bear market rally that has more upside room, its only a bear market rally which will probably fail and push the markets to new lows during the next weeks.”


Yesterday’s huge opening gap and continues buying during the trading session with only a mild pullback after the FOMC Policy statements were release has place the markets in a strong position despite that the left gap will have to get filled in the future. The breakout on all the indexes signals another test of the January highs, however, during today’s trading session markets will be trading against yesterday’s highs.

On the other side of the coin, yesterday’s rally was a consequence of rumors about the creation of a Bad bank which will absorb all the toxic assets, or Level III assets that form part of the bank’s balance sheet, and you know, buy the rumor sell the news, will have to happen at some moment as the state of the economy and the job losses indicate that the future is not as bright as it seem to be. Yesterday’s move showed a lower volume, 14% lower than the previous session, its true that under the current circumstances volumes have decline, but it also shows the lack of confidence in the rally. Furthermore, I quoted that the current rally that started after a few tests of the 800.00 area on the SP will have to exceed five days, yesterday, was the third one and it may be that the move has already used a big portion of the tank’s fuel or even exhausted the countertrend rally, saying this, today the move is in risk.
So unless yesterday’s highs get exceeded we could see a session where markets consolidate yesterday’s move before the next breakout occurs, failure to break yesterday’s highs could push the markets lower to close the opening gaps. Take also in account that more economic data will get released during today and tomorrow, with the GDP advance numbers as the star of the week, and the classical end of month bullishness that normally result in some windows dressing and buying pressure. So let’s play both side of the markets, and let’s see if yesterday’s intraday ranges that oscillated between the 860.00 and 875.00 levels get broken. A lower high, just below yesterday’s highs could offer a good short entry, and later in the session, yesterday’s late lows around our pivot point, should hold at least the first time they get tested. Obviously if yesterday’s highs get exceeded, markets should be able to continue higher, a marginal new high around 880.00, or even to the next objective for this rally at 888.00 that if get broken will point to the 920.00-940.00 areas.

TODAY’S SESSION
Initial resistance is just around yesterday at 875.00-877.00 on the SP, 1236.00-1238.50 on the Nasdaq and 474.00-475.70 on the Russell. A double top at those levels could give way to a good sell off that may reach at least our second support areas, but if those get exceeded look for the markets to push higher reaching 880.00-880.50 on the SP, 1244.00-1245.50 on the Nasdaq and 477.80-475.70 on the Russell. If the markets are still strong, the next levels are at 885.00-886.00 on the SP and 1255.00-1258.00 on the Nasdaq and 483.50-485.00 on the Russell.

There is some support just below yesterday’s settlements at 868.00-867.00 on the SP, 12221.00-1220.00 on the Nasdaq and 469.60-468.20 on the Russell, breaking below them should result in a pullback to yesterday’s late lows around 863.50-862.00 on the SP, 1212.50-1210.00 on the Nasdaq and 464.00-463.70 on the Russell. If buyers do not step in there, look for some more profit taking that could drive the markets down to 856.50-854.00 on the SP, 1198.00-1196.00 on the Nasdaq and 460.60-459.80 on the Russell. GOOD LUCK.


.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 891.00-892.50 1268.00-1270.00 488.20-489.50
Resistance 3 885.00-886.00 1255.00-1258.00 483.50-485.00
Resistance 2 880.00-880.50 1244.00-1245.50 477.80-479.10
Resistance 1 875.00-877.00 1236.00-1238.50 474.00-475.70
PIVOT 861.75 1220.00 467.40
Support 1 868.00-867.00 1221.00-1220.00 469.60-468.20
Support 2 863.50-862.00 1212.50-1210.00 464.00-463.70
Support 3 856.50-854.00 1198.00-1196.00 460.60-459.80
Support 4 850.00-848.50 1189.00-1188.00 455.80-454.10


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
937.89 1341.43 504.13
928.86 1327.32 499.77
914.25 1304.50 492.70
899.64 1281.68 485.63
890.61 1267.57 481.27
876.00 1244.75 474.20
861.39 1221.93 467.13
856.88 1214.88 464.95
852.36 1207.82 462.77
837.75 1185.00 455.70
823.14 1162.18 448.63
814.11 1148.07 444.27
799.50 1125.25 437.20
784.89 1102.43 430.13
775.86 1088.32 425.77



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 892.75 1267.50 482.50
AS DAILY LOW 854.50 1208.00 464.00​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

 

[arturo1]

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 30-January-2009


Ford $5.9 billion loss, Colgate better than expected earnings, Altria and Shell lower earnings, the stimulus plan approval by the House; Initial Claims above expectations at 588K and Continuing claims at 4.7 million, Durable good orders minus 2.6% as business spending slumps and New Home Sales tumble 14.7% on record low, all this gave way to a negative session as caution returned to the markets.


ECONOMIC DATA
8:30 AM Chain Deflator-Adv.
8:30 AM GDP-Adv.
9:45 AM Chicago PMI
9:55 AM Michigan Sentiment-Rev.
10:00 AM Employment Cost Index



YESTERDAY’S MARKET
A negative nightly session for the futures markets resulted in a lower opening, the E-mini SP started the session at 856.75 from where it bounced to 859.50 just to get sold to a new intraday low at 854.50, and unable to bounce pushed lower to 850.50. With volumes on the light side, the E-mini SP started a struggling rally that tested 856.50, pulled back, moved higher and down once more and continued to push to the upside reaching 859.00. Once the index failed to trade above the opening high and after a double top, it pushed down all the way to 851.50, the index bounced up to 853.50 and pushed to new lows at 849.00. After a few feeble bounces that failed to break the descending trend, the E-mini SP reached 842.75. As the low held, the SP pushed higher testing the 850.00 area, after a few failed attempts just below that area, the index pulled back to 844.50 and once that level get broken the markets made a new daily low, on the SP at 840.25. For the session, the SP lost 21.75 points and settled at 842.75, the Nasdaq ended lower by 25.25 points at 1206.00 and the Russell ended the day at 454.70 after losing 17.60 points. The Dow gave back the previous day gains closing the session at 8149, a 226 point loss.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Yesterday I wrote: “On the other side of the coin, yesterday’s rally was a consequence of rumors about the creation of a Bad bank which will absorb all the toxic assets, or Level III assets that form part of the bank’s balance sheet, and you know, buy the rumor sell the news, will have to happen at some moment as the state of the economy and the job losses indicate that the future is not as bright as it seem to be. Yesterday’s move showed a lower volume, 14% lower than the previous session, its true that under the current circumstances volumes have decline, but it also shows the lack of confidence in the rally. Furthermore, I quoted that the current rally that started after a few tests of the 800.00 area on the SP will have to exceed five days, yesterday, was the third one and it may be that the move has already used a big portion of the tank’s fuel or even exhausted the countertrend rally, saying this, today the move is in risk. So unless yesterday’s highs get exceeded we could see a session where markets consolidate yesterday’s move before the next breakout occurs, failure to break yesterday’s highs could push the markets lower to close the opening gaps. ” Last Wednesday I wrote:” Take also in account that many times the resulted move seen during the FOMC rate decision session gets reversed the next day starting a trend pattern that can last for a few days.”

The markets posted a strong negative session reversing the previous day huge gains and higher opening gaps that as I wrote yesterday, probably exhausted the move up. The fact that the index was able to rally only three days has the move under the limits for a first degree countertrend and not a new upside trend, despite the huge amount of support that was seen at the 800.00 area on the SP, 1140.00-1136.00 on the Nasdaq and 8000 on the Dow.
That does not mean that the downtrend is ready to resume, but before another breakout attempt will be seen, the markets may consolidate for a few days, and maybe maintain a bearish bias as the excitement of the previous days that resulted from the rumor and probably fact that the balance sheet of the banks will be cleaned disappeared. Yesterday’s trading volumes were also very light, so I assume that all the time that the 832.00 on the SP holds, the down move will be a struggling one. Obviously, there would need to be some follow through, a fact that we have not seen in the last moves.
With all this, plus, the economic numbers to be release today, the end of month bullish bias, and next Friday unemployment numbers, the indexes could spend some more time trading inside the current ranges. Is there something bullish in this trading pattern? Another one or two negative sessions where the markets hold the previous support levels, or they post a higher lows could result in a strong rally that this time manages to hold for more than five trading sessions. But the last Wednesday’s highs that posted a lower high in the mid term charts, if not exceeded could result in a strong downside break.
For today’s trading session, all the time that the SP can hold yesterday’s lows, there is a chance for an inside day where the lows and highs were seen yesterday, so lets try to play both sides of the markets unless some clear bearish or bullish pattern develops.


TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance just below the late highs at 847.00-848.50 on the SP, 1210.50-1212.50 on the Nasdaq and 456.60-457.90 on the Russell. If they get exceeded, look for the indexes to move higher reaching 851.50-853.00 on the SP, 1216.50-1218.00 on the Nasdaq and 459.80-460.40 on the Russell. Nothing good happens if the rally stalls there, so be ready to get short on the first sign of weakness, however, if the markets are strong, look for the indexes to test 857.00-858.25 on the SP, 1225.00-1226.00 on the NQ and 466.00-467.40 on the Russell.

There is support at 839.50-837.50 on the SP, 1201.50-1199.00 on the Nasdaq and 452.00-450.90 on the Russell. If the markets open below them, look for the indexes to try and hold the next areas at 834.0-832.00 on the SP, 1193.50-1192.00 on the Nasdaq and 448.20-446.70 on the Russell. Those may hold the first time they get tested, however, if buyers do not step in there, look for the markets to continue lower at least to 827.50-825.50 on the SP, 1186.00-1184.00 on the Nasdaq and 443.20-442.70 on the Russell. GOOD LUCK.


.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 861.00-863.00 1234.50-1236.00 470.50-471.80
Resistance 3 857.00-858.25 1225.00-1226.00 466.00-467.40
Resistance 2 851.50-853.00 1216.50-1218.00 459.80-460.40
Resistance 1 847.00-848.50 1210.50-1212.50 456.60-457.90
PIVOT 851.50 1211.00 459.20
Support 1 839.00-837.50 1201.50-1199.00 452.00-450.90
Support 2 834.00-832.00 1193.50-1192.00 448.20-446.70
Support 3 827.50-825.50 1186.00-1184.00 443.20-442.70
Support 4 821.00-819.50 1175.00-1173.00 438.60-438.00


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
922.72 1288.28 505.13
915.28 1279.97 500.27
903.25 1266.50 492.40
891.22 1253.03 484.53
883.78 1244.72 479.67
871.75 1231.25 471.80
859.72 1217.78 463.93
856.00 1213.63 461.50
852.28 1209.47 459.07
840.25 1196.00 451.20
828.22 1182.53 443.33
820.78 1174.22 438.47
808.75 1160.75 430.60
796.72 1147.28 422.73
789.28 1138.97 417.87



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 857.25 1218.00 463.30
AS DAILY LOW 825.25 1183.50 442.70​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

 

[arturo1]

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 02-February-2009


Exxon-Mobile fourth quarter net profit drops 33%, Honeywell and P&G profits rise, Japanese industrial production falling - 9.6% m/m, GDP shrinks 3.8% during 4Q, the most in 26 years as personal consumption deteriorate. Chicago PMI lower than expected


WEEKLY PIVOTS FOR WEEK ENDING 06- February-2008

R3 901.00
R2 862.00
R1 849.50
PP 836.50
S1 816.50
S2 896.00
S3 771.00

ECONOMIC DATA
8:30 AM Personal Income
8:30 AM Personal Spending
10:00AM Construction Spending
10:00 AM ISM Index

WEEKLY RECAP
Markets closed their worst January month in whole history, last Monday premarket action kept the futures indexes under strong pressure, after trading as low as 810.75 during the Globex session, markets started the session a lot better with the news that Barclays won’t need to rise additional capital, Pfizer acquisition of Wyeth for $68 billions, the dramatic lower earnings report and 20K jobs cut by Caterpillar adding to Home Depot which is laying off 7K jobs. The economic reports came out better than or not as worst as expected, Leading Indicators was up by .3% and December Existing Home sales up by 6.5% resulted in a positive close for the U.S. equity markets. The SP managed to add 7.25 points ending the session at 830.75, the Nasdaq added 15.25 points and settled at 1179.50 and the Russell added 6.70 ending the day at 446.10. The Dow closed higher by 38.00 points at 8112. Most of the Tuesday’s Globex session markets traded in positive territory, regardless that the corporate reports continued to be ugly markets closed higher for the day. DuPont shifted to quarterly losses, Delta missed earnings expectations and Corning announced that it is cutting 3500 jobs. The S&P Case Shiller report which measures home values, posted an 18.2% annual drop in November, also Consumer Confidence fell to a record low, but in front of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting and policy statements markets held. For the day the SP added 8.50 points closing the session at 839.25, the Nasdaq gained 6.25 points and settled at 1185.75 and the Russell closed higher by 5.00 points at 451.10. Wednesday’s session markets opened sharply higher, rumors that the Government will create the “Bad Bank”, an institution that will absorb all the toxic assets from the banks and clean their balance sheet so they can start to lend money; additional, SAP and Yahoo reported earnings exceeding lowered estimates. Later in the day, the FED left rates unchanged signaling that it could start to buy long term treasuries. Also the House passed its version of an $819 billion stimulus bill without the republican support. Markets held theirs gains until the end of the session. The SP added 32.25 points and settled at 871.50, the Nasdaq closed higher by 45.50 points at 1231.25 and the Russell ended higher by 21.20 points ending the session at 472.30. The Dow finally broke above thec8300 area closing higher by 200 points at 8375. Thursday’s was the opposite, a negative day session. Ford $5.9 billion loss, Colgate better than expected earnings, Altria and Shell showed lower earnings; Initial Claims came out above expectations at 588K and Continuing claims at 4.7 million, a new high. Durable good orders came out showing a 2.6% decrease as business spending slumped, if that was not enough for investors; New Home Sales tumbled 14.7% to a record low. For the day, the SP lost 21.75 points and settled at 842.75, the Nasdaq ended lower by 25.25 points at 1206.00 and the Russell ended the day at 454.70 after losing 17.60 points. The Dow gave back the previous day gains closing the session at 8149, a 226 point loss. Weakness continued for Friday, when the weekly surprise was the Q4 GDP report. Economists expected a 5.5% decline, but the advance report indicated a drop of "only" 3.8% with notorious weakness in personal consumption. The session a negative one, took the markets back to their most critical short term support levels. For the day, the SP lost 20.25 points and settled at 822.50 the Nasdaq ended lower by 26.75 at 1179.25 and the Russell lost 12.10 closing the week at 442.60. The Dow lost 148 points closing at the key 8000 mark.



FRIDAY’S MARKETS
After trading at 833.00 during the Globex session, the E-mini SP started the day at 845.75 and pushed up to 848.00 from where it backed off to 845.00 and bounced once more to the 848.00 level. Unable to break higher, the SP sold off to 835.75 from where it moved up a couple of points just to get sold with strong momentum pushing all the way down to 828.75. The index traded in a narrow range for a few minutes, moved down to 828.50 where the small double bottom resulted in a small short covering rally to 834.00. Unable to break higher, the SP pushed to a new intraday low just at our 825.25 downside objective, then, it bounced to 830.00 pulled back to 827.50 where the higher low held pushing the index all the way up to 837.50. After spending a few minutes trying to break up, the move failed and the SP pushed lower to a new intraday low at 823.25 from where a rebound managed to reach 830.25 just to fail and in a struggling downside move reach a new intraday low at 821.25. After trying to hold there and once the Nasdaq made a new low the SP pushed down to 817.50 from where it bounced back to 824.75 holding near that level into the close. For the day, the SP lost 20.25 points and settled at 822.50 the Nasdaq ended lower by 26.75 at 1179.25 and the Russell lost 12.10 closing the week at 442.60. The Dow lost 148 points closing at the key 8000 mark.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Last Friday I wrote:” The fact that the index was able to rally only three days has the move under the limits for a first degree countertrend and not a new upside trend, despite the huge amount of support that was seen at the 800.00 area on the SP, 1140.00-1136.00 on the Nasdaq and 8000 on the Dow. That does not mean that the downtrend is ready to resume, but before another breakout attempt will be seen, the markets may consolidate for a few days, and maybe maintain a bearish bias as the excitement of the previous days that resulted from the rumor and probably fact that the balance sheet of the banks will be cleaned disappeared. Yesterday’s trading volumes were also very light, so I assume that all the time that the 832.00 on the SP holds, the down move will be a struggling one. Obviously, there would need to be some follow through, a fact that we have not seen in the last moves? Another one or two negative sessions where the markets hold the previous support levels, or they post a higher lows could result in a strong rally that this time manages to hold for more than five trading sessions. But the last Wednesday’s highs that posted a lower high in the mid term charts, if not exceeded could result in a strong downside break. For today’s trading session, all the time that the SP can hold yesterday’s lows, there is a chance for an inside day where the lows and highs were seen yesterday, so lets try to play both sides of the markets unless some clear bearish or bullish pattern develops.”
Last week three days rally failed where the countertrend bounce that resulted from many consecutive successful test of the 800.00 support area on the SP was due to do so. I have explained many times the extension in time of a countertrend movement in the markets against the primary trend, a first degree move usually last between 1-4 days, and this last rally was only a countertrend one that get exhausted by the huge opening gap seen last Wednesday.
News about possible bailouts, stimulus packages and “Bad banks”, other ones call it bad ideas, can result in erratic wild moves, but the real situation in the economy, corporate reports and economic data, and does not indicate yet that the markets have hit a bottom. During this trading week, more to come, with the main report next Friday hen the January unemployment figures will get released, and, if you been following the all the announced job cuts done during the last 30 days, it won’t be a surprise to see an increase in those numbers. So they are not too many reasons for the markets to rally and selling the bounces should be the best strategy to follow.
My “AS DAILY PROJECTED LOW” for today’s trading session, indicates the 804.25 level as a possible objective for the last two days sell off, so if the markets continue to trade lower, that level should be tested, if the markets hold above it on the close, then there is a possibility that the indexes will continue to trade in the range, also, it will maintain open the possibility of another strong rally. So this week has huge importance, a break below the 804.25 area that recovers above that price during the week will place the indexes if not in a strong position at least in a neutral one. I don’t think the markets are ready yet for another wide leg down that breaks below the November lows, but I do think that a marginal break of the 800.00 support level on the SP can happen before another “Bad Bank, Bad policy” surprise the markets.
For today’s trading session, we’ll get the Personal income and spending numbers for the month of December, if they come out as expected we should see some bounce from the already slightly negative Globex session, but if they report worst than consensus, we could see a continuation of this last fast downtrend move. So all the time that the SP is trading below the weekly pivot point at 836.50, wee should favor the short side, and, if you do trade on the long side, thinking that after the last two days sell off we could see some consolidation waiting for this week “new ideas” and economic reports, just tight your stops and wait for our support levels to get hit.


TODAY’S SESSION
There is initial resistance at 825.50-826.50 on the SP, 1183.00-1184.00 on the Nasdaq and 444.40-446.10 on the Russell. Those should offer some resistance if the markets open with losses, but once the get exceeded, the indexes should be able to reach 829.00-831.00 on the SP, 1187.00-1188.00 on the Nasdaq and 448.80-450.50 on the Russell. Those levels are key and if the markets are weak and due to continue lower, selling there with tight stops could be a great short trade, but, if the markets break above them and some stops get elected, look for the indexes to continue higher reaching 834.50-835.75 on the SP, 1193.00-1194.00 on the Nasdaq and 453.20-454.50 on the Russell.
Initial support levels area at 819.50-818.00 on the SP, 1172.00-1169.50 on the Nasdaq and 440.80-439.10 on the Russell. Breaking below them will push the indexes lower to 816.00-814.50 on the SP, 1163.00-1162.00 on the Nasdaq and 436.20-435.10. If the markets reach those levels and hold, we could see a good short covering rally that pushes the SP back to the low 830.00’s, however, if the indexes fail to hold, look for the sellers to remain in control pushing the markets down to 810.00-808.50 on the SP, 1156.00-1155.00 on the Nasdaq and 432.00-431.30 on the Russell. If that level does not hold on the SP, 805.00-804.00 is the only support before the 896.00 area. GOOD LUCK.
.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 839.50-841.50 1202.00-1204.00 458.40-459.60
Resistance 3 834.50-835.75 1193.00-1194.00 453.20-454.50
Resistance 2 829.00-831.00 1187.00-1188.00 448.80-450.50
Resistance 1 825.50-826.50 1183.00-1184.00 444.40-446.10
PIVOT 829.75 1189.00 447.10
Support 1 819.50-818.00 1172.00-1169.50 440.80-439.10
Support 2 816.00-814.50 1163.00-1162.00 436.20-435.10
Support 3 810.00-808.50 1156.00-1155.00 432.00-431.30
Support 4 805.00-804.00 1149.50-1148.00 427.80-426.20


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
899.97 1279.78 490.23
892.53 1270.22 485.67
880.50 1254.75 478.30
868.47 1239.28 470.93
861.03 1229.72 466.37
849.00 1214.25 459.00
836.97 1198.78 451.63
833.25 1194.00 449.35
829.53 1189.22 447.07
817.50 1173.75 439.70
805.47 1158.28 432.33
798.03 1148.72 427.77
786.00 1133.25 420.40
773.97 1117.78 413.03
766.53 1108.22 408.47



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 835.75 1196.50 450.80
AS DAILY LOW 804.25 1156.25 431.50​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

 

[arturo1]

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 03-February-2009
Bleak earnings outlook, with Mattel and Humana lower results, Macys to cut 7000 jobs; Personal Income down by .2%, Personal Spending down 1.0%, a record sixth straight month contraction; Construction Spending down 1.4% and ISM index bounce from record lows result in a quite negative session.


ECONOMIC DATA
10:00 AM Pending Home Sales
2:00 PM Auto Sales
2:00 PM Truck Sales



YESTERDAY’S MARKET
With futures markets trading with losses during the Globex session, the E-mini SP started the day at 811.25 from where it pulled back to 809.00 and bounced to 813.50. Without gaining any upside momentum during the first minutes of the session, the SP fell back to 809.00. Once economic data was release the SP bounced to 815.00, pulled back to 812.25 and leaded by the strength in the Nasdaq and Russell reached 821.50 from where it pulled back to 816.50. The index tried to bounce once more reaching 821.00 but this time without the Nasdaq joining the move so the SP pushed down to 814.00. After failing to break below that level, the SP rallied once more testing the 820.00 area an with short starting to cover the index finally pushed to new intraday highs at 822.50. After a feeble pullback and with volumes very light, the short covering rally was able to continue pressing markets higher with the SP reaching 827.25. Once the high was posted, the index traded quietly in a narrow range where a lower high resulted in a pullback to 820.00. After spending a few minutes around that level, the SP broke lower finding support at the early 814.00 low. After bouncing back to 818.00, the E-mini SP traded lower making a marginal low below support but the lack of volume did not create the necessary momentum to break down and the index continued to trade in a tight range near the intraday lows. Unable to break lower markets started to recover, the SP moved back to 820.50 and once that level was cleared the index rallied to the daily highs before pulling back into the end. For the day, the SP lost 1.25 points and settled at 821.25, the Nasdaq closed higher by 9.50 points at 1188.75 and the Russell gained 4.90 points ending the session at 447.50. The Dow lost 64 points closing the day at 7936.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Yesterday I wrote: “My “AS DAILY PROJECTED LOW” for today’s trading session, indicates the 804.25 level as a possible objective for the last two days sell off, so if the markets continue to trade lower, that level should be tested, if the markets hold above it on the close, then there is a possibility that the indexes will continue to trade in the range, also, it will maintain open the possibility of another strong rally. So this week has huge importance, a break below the 804.25 area that recovers above that price during the week will place the indexes if not in a strong position at least in a neutral one. I don’t think the markets are ready yet for another wide leg down that breaks below the November lows, but I do think that a marginal break of the 800.00 support level on the SP can happen before another “Bad Bank, Bad policy” surprise the markets. For today’s trading session, we’ll get the Personal income and spending numbers for the month of December, if they come out as expected we should see some bounce from the already slightly negative Globex session, but if they report worst than consensus, we could see a continuation of this last fast downtrend move. So all the time that the SP is trading below the weekly pivot point at 836.50, wee should favor the short side, and, if you do trade on the long side, thinking that after the last two days sell off we could see some consolidation waiting for this week “new ideas” and economic reports, just tight your stops and wait for our support levels to get hit.”

Markets fluctuated for most of the session as they consolidate last week sell off. The relatively narrow ranges where the early lows were able to hold kept the trading pattern undefined, the mixed conditions also makes difficult to forecast the next move. So today’s trading session could give us the clues for what to expect during the next trading sessions. Is yesterday’s higher low a successful test of the 800.00 level on the SP, or the failure to close above the 829.50 area is indicating additional weakness in the broader market? The late bounce makes me favor another day of back and forth action, until, unless yesterday’s ranges get decisively broken.
Yesterday session pushed the Dow to its lower levels since the November lows, and if that is not a false break then it has to be considered as the resume of the downtrend that could push that index well below the November lows. So yesterday’s low in that index will act as critical support for the upcoming sessions, and all the time that the YM keeps trading below the 8000 mark, odds favor a strong sell off in that market.
However, I am disappointed that the SP did not make a new low, and if we don’t see a new low, below the 800.00 level, then the markets will have to rally first well above the 850.00 level on the SP and then maybe resume the downtrend for a low below the November’s low. For now, yesterday’s early support seems to be solid and there are chances that another rally attempt could be seen.
So for today’s trading session and while the indexes continue to show further development of this sideways pattern until direction is decided, we could see more back and forth action, but be sure that once the next break happens it could lead to a huge move.

TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance at 824.00-825.50 on the SP, 1193.50-1195.00 on the Nasdaq and 449.00-450.50 on the Russell. If they get exceeded, look for the indexes to move higher reaching 827.50-828.50 on the SP, 1201.00-1202.00 on the Nasdaq and 452.70-454.10 on the Russell. If a good rally will happen, the Nasdaq will have to exceeded those areas, but beware of a reversal from there. If finally the indexes push higher look for very strong resistance at 831.00-832.50 on the SP, 1210.00-1212.00 on the Nasdaq and 457.90-458.50 on the Russell.

There is support at 818.00-817.00 on the SP, 1184.00-1182.00 on the Nasdaq and 444.50-442.90 on the Russell. If the markets open below them, look for the indexes to try and hold the next areas at 814.00-812.50 on the SP, 1178.00-1176.50 on the Nasdaq and 438.40-437.50 on the Russell. Those held very nice during yesterday’s session, so if a pullback manages to find support right there look for another rally attempt, however, if they finally break markets should push lower reaching 809.00-808.00 on the SP, 1171.00-1168.50 on the Nasdaq and 434.90-433.60 on the Russell. If buyers do not stand in line to buy those lows, we could see a strong sell off into the end of the session. GOOD LUCK.

.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 835.00-836.00 1218.00-1220.00 461.20-462.20
Resistance 3 831.00-832.50 1210.00-1212.00 457.90-458.50
Resistance 2 827.50-828.50 1201.00-1202.00 452.70-454.10
Resistance 1 824.00-825.50 1193.50-1195.00 449.00-450.50
PIVOT 818.25 1181.50 444.10
Support 1 818.00-817.00 1184.00-1182.00 444.50-442.90
Support 2 814.00-812.50 1178.00-1176.50 438.40-437.50
Support 3 809.00-808.00 1171.00-1168.50 434.90-433.60
Support 4 804.50-803.00 1162.00-1160.00 431.00-429.50


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
861.88 1280.47 477.56
856.87 1269.03 473.64
848.75 1250.50 467.30
840.63 1231.97 460.96
835.62 1220.53 457.04
827.50 1202.00 450.70
819.38 1183.47 444.36
816.88 1177.75 442.40
814.37 1172.03 440.44
806.25 1153.50 434.10
798.13 1134.97 427.76
793.12 1123.53 423.84
785.00 1105.00 417.50
776.88 1086.47 411.16
771.87 1075.03 407.24



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 824.50 1219.50 457.40
AS DAILY LOW 803.00 1171.00 440.80​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

 

[arturo1]

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 04-February-2009


Senate debating the stimulus plan, GMAC profits derivate from debt exchange and Dow Chemical $1.55 Billion loss and gloom outlook, SanDisk down more than 20%, Auto sales plunge 37% in January to a 26 year lo. UPS missing estimates. Pending Home sales rise 6.3% giving way to a positive session.

ECONOMIC DATA
8:15 AM ADP Employment
10:00 AM ISM Services
10:35 AM Crude Inventories



YESTERDAY’S MARKET
After a Globex session where futures indexes fluctuated, the E-mini SP opened the session at 825.50 from where it bounced to 827.50 and pulled back to 821.25 trading Tuesday’s settlement. With the Nasdaq showing some early weakness, the SP moved down to 818.00. Once the first piece of economic data was released the SP bounced to 824.00, pulled back to 819.50 and pushed higher reaching 825.75. With lack of momentum to continue higher, the SP pulled back to 818.00 just to bounce once more reaching 827.00 as it continued to trade on a sideways pattern but with a slightly bullish bias. With the Nasdaq pushing higher, the SP moved up testing the Globex 8239.75 highs, but its failure to break above it kept the index under pressure. As the session continued, the markets sold off, the SP pushed down to 822.00, bounced back to 826.50 and pushed down to 822.50. As the pullbacks continued to get bought, the SP manages to break higher printing a new intraday high at 832.75, and then it traded on a narrow range but with more shorts running to cover their positions, the SP reached 834.00, held there for a few minutes and rallied strong reaching 839.75 before pulling back to the 830.00 level into the close. For the day, the SP ended higher by 10.25 points at 831.50, the Nasdaq gained 19.00 points at 1207.75 and the Russell ended up by 1.60 points at 449.10. The Dow rallied strong gaining 141 pints closing the session at 8078.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Yesterday I wrote: “Markets fluctuated for most of the session as they consolidate last week sells off. The relatively narrow ranges where the early lows were able to hold kept the trading pattern undefined, the mixed conditions also makes difficult to forecast the next move. So today’s trading session could give us the clues for what to expect during the next trading sessions. Is yesterday’s higher low a successful test of the 800.00 level on the SP, or the failure to close above the 829.50 area is indicating additional weakness in the broader market? The late bounce makes me favor another day of back and forth action, until, unless yesterday’s ranges get decisively broken. Yesterday session pushed the Dow to its lower levels since the November lows, and if that is not a false break then it has to be considered as the resume of the downtrend that could push that index well below the November lows. So yesterday’s low in that index will act as critical support for the upcoming sessions. For now, yesterday’s early support seems to be solid and there are chances that another rally attempt could be seen. So for today’s trading session and while the indexes continue to show further development of this sideways pattern until direction is decided, we could see more back and forth action, but be sure that once the next break happens it could lead to a huge move..”
So, markets were able to hold the previous session lows and managed to trade higher. The 800.00 area on the SP and the 7800-7900 levels that I mentioned as strong support for the Dow gave the indexes a floor while markets wait for this coming Friday unemployment numbers and the next week approval of all the stimulus, additional bailout plans or bad bank ideas.
The fact that the SP was rejected just from below the 840.00 area, the January 21 and 22 highs, could lead to more sideways action during today’s trading session, but the positive signs coming from the breakout and close above the most recent resistance areas has placed the markets in a slightly positive trend, that if we don’t get any bad surprise in the economic news to get released during today’s session could give way to higher prices. It is not that buyers are standing in the line to get into the markets, it’s more the absence of selling and the mild short covering activity in this low volume markets that has pushed up during the last two days. If this short covering rally will continue, and, the bad economic reports are not worst than expected, we could see prices continue to move up, but only better than expected news and much higher prices will result in new buying. The last two days slow trading action may continue during today’s session, and if the ADP Employment numbers to get released before the opening and the ISM Services index look a bit better, this boring struggling uptrend could continue. So for today, I have to favor the long side of the markets unless my second support areas get broken. I will be very careful with any long position if the Dow breaks back below the 8000 area and the SP trades below 823.00 by more than 1.75 points, and I will be looking for another sell off if yesterday’s highs fail to get exceeded.


TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance at 833.50-835.00 on the SP, 1212.00-1214.50 on the Nasdaq and 451.20-452.30 on the Russell. Trading above them will push the markets up for a test of yesterday’s highs at 839.00-840.50 on the SP, 1218.00-1219.00 on the Nasdaq and 454.90-455.40 on the Russell. Those were rejected during yesterday’s last hour of the session, and it may get also rejected the first time they get tested during today’s trading session, however, if the markets are strong once they get exceeded look for the indexes to continue higher reaching 844.50-845.00 on the SP, 1224.00-1225.50 on the Nasdaq and 457.80-458.40 on the Russell.

There is strong support at 829.00-827.00 on the SP, 1204.00-1202.00 on the Nasdaq and 448.00-447.00 on the Russell. Nothing bad happens all the time that the indexes hold above those areas, but if they break lower look for a test of 824.00-823.00 on the SP, 1196.50-1194.00 on the Nasdaq and 445.10-443.40 on the Russell. Markets held yesterday at those areas, and they were pivotal for the late rally, so if they can hold there once more look for a rally, if not, look for the weakness to push the indexes lower to their next support areas at 818.50-818.00 on the SP, 1188.00-1185.50 on the Nasdaq and 439.60-438.70 on the Russell. GOOD LUCK.


.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 849.25-850.50 1230.00-1232.00 460.60-461.50
Resistance 3 844.50-845.00 1224.00-1225.50 457.80-458.40
Resistance 2 839.00-840.50 1218.00-1219.00 454.90-455.40
Resistance 1 833.50-835.00 1212.00-1214.50 451.20-452.30
PIVOT 829.00 1201.00 449.10
Support 1 829.00-827.00 1204.00-1202.00 448.00-447.00
Support 2 824.00-823.00 1196.50-1194.00 445.10-443.40
Support 3 818.50-818.00 1188.00-1185.50 439.60-438.70
Support 4 810.50-808.75 1178.00-1177.00 434.90-433.80


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
878.18 1282.87 473.51
872.57 1273.38 470.79
863.50 1258.00 466.40
854.43 1242.62 462.01
848.82 1233.13 459.29
839.75 1217.75 454.90
830.68 1202.37 450.51
827.88 1197.63 449.15
825.07 1192.88 447.79
816.00 1177.50 443.40
806.93 1162.12 439.01
801.32 1152.63 436.29
792.25 1137.25 431.90
783.18 1121.87 427.51
777.57 1112.38 424.79



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 847.50 1232.00 457.80
AS DAILY LOW 823.75 1192.00 446.30





Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

 

[arturo1]

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 05-February-2009


Compensation limits for executives, toxic assets guarantees still in discussion, Time Warner losses and lower revenues, ADP Employment, private sector payrolls fell by 522K in January, a bit better than expected and the ISM Services index increased to 42.9 resulted in an early rally that got reversed sending the indexes down to a negative close as Bank of America slides 10%. After hours, Cisco earnings down, incoming orders declined dramatically in January.

ECONOMIC DATA
8:30 AM Initial Claims
8:30 AM Productivity
10:00 AM Factory Orders



YESTERDAY’S MARKET
For most of the nightly session, futures markets traded in positive territory. The E-mini SP started the day at 838.75 and bounced to 839.50, just a bit below the Globex 840.75 high. Unable to break higher the index pulled back to 835.00 where buyers stepped in and in an impressive move pushed the SP all the way up to 842.00. After a feeble pullback, the index pushed higher reaching 849.50 where the rally stalled. After sitting for a long time near the highs, the SP traded in a narrow range and finally broke lower testing the 843.50 area. Once more the markets stopped at the lows for a long period and unable to bounce the SP pushed lower reaching 837.75. The E-mini SP bounced back to 842.00 where sellers stepped in pushing the index all the way down to 827.50 where support came in. The SP moved up to 831.50 fell to 828.50 and bounced once more to the 831.50 level putting a double top that resulted in a move to new lows at 826.00. After holding the new low, markets rebounded; the SP traded back at 831.75 but failed to break higher, another late bounce pushed the SP to 834.00 from where it pulled back into the end. For the day, the SP lost1.75 points closing the session at 829.75, the Nasdaq added 6.25 points and settled at 1214.00 and the Russell closed unchanged for the session at 449.10. The Dow lost 121 points closing the session at 7956.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Yesterday I wrote: “The fact that the SP was rejected just from below the 840.00 area, the January 21 and 22 highs, could lead to more sideways action during today’s trading session, but the positive signs coming from the breakout and close above the most recent resistance areas has placed the markets in a slightly positive trend, that if we don’t get any bad surprise in the economic news to get released during today’s session could give way to higher prices. It is not that buyers are standing in the line to get into the markets, it’s more the absence of selling and the mild short covering activity in this low volume markets that has pushed up during the last two days. If this short covering rally will continue, and, the bad economic reports are not worst than expected, we could see prices continue to move up, but only better than expected news and much higher prices will result in new buying. The last two days slow trading action may continue during today’s session, and if the ADP Employment numbers to get released before the opening and the ISM Services index look a bit better, this boring struggling uptrend could continue. So for today, I have to favor the long side of the markets unless my second support areas get broken. I will be very careful with any long position if the Dow breaks back below the 8000 area and the SP trades below 823.00 by more than 1.75 points, and I will be looking for another sell off if yesterday’s highs fail to get exceeded.”

We came into yesterday’s session following a slightly positive momentum, the early rally was impressive but it failed to break above the last Friday’s Globex highs, the result, a strong reversal. Markets seem to be comfortable trading in the 800.00-850.00 range and probably will continue to hold these ranges during today’s trading session. Obviously, at the moment that the recent ranges get broken, a major breakout will happen.
Everybody seems to be waiting for tomorrow’s unemployment reports, later traders will be waiting for the stimulus plan and the decision about the toxic assets, so all this uncertainty is resulting in a sideways pattern that at this time, looks that it will get broken to the downside. Too many tests of the 800.00 area on the SP make me think that the market will trade below that level, a false break, a higher low around the November lows or anew low, could be the next move, but I do expect the “obvious support to get violated. The same is true for the other indexes, in particular the Dow, which has been the weakest, a break of the 7800 level could indicate much lower prices.
Yesterday’s close near the lows has placed the indexes in a difficult position, and markets may be considered weak all the time that yesterday’s highs remain intact, the next “thing” in the daily chart could be a wide range down session, and if that do not happens, with most of the traders on the sidelines waiting for tomorrow’s economic reports, then we could see a narrow range session where markets show more consolidation before the next breakout attempt, and if the SP is able to hold, after yesterday’s higher high and higher low, the markets could rally. It is very difficult to forecast the next move all the time that the markets are trading in a sideways pattern, but if today, the markets hold, it will start to look like it wants to go up before the next test of the November lows.
I have to favor the short side, in particular all the time that my pivot points can hold, but with the Nasdaq already showing a big sell off during the Globex session, as a result of yesterday’s Cisco earnings report and outlook we could see some short covering during the early going, and then maybe establish a narrow trading range for today’s session..

TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance at 832.00-834.00 on the SP, 1218.00-1219.50 on the Nasdaq and 450.80-452.10 on the Russell. Those acted as good resistance during yesterday’s late action, so if a bounce fails there it could result in a good short, if markets break higher, then look for the next levels at 837.50-839.00 on the SP, 1224.50-1226.00 on the Nasdaq and 454.10-455.00 on the Russell to be tested. If markets will continue to trade in the recent ranges, those areas won’t get exceeded, however, if markets are strong in front of tomorrow’s unemployment data look for the indexes to continue higher and reach 842.50-844.00 on the SP, 1235.50-1236.00 on the Nasdaq and 458.00-458.40 on the Russell.
Initial support at yesterday’s late lows at 827.50-825.75 on the SP, 1210.001208.00 on the Nasdaq and 447.60-446.10 on the Russell. Failing to hold will push the markets lower to 823.00-821.00 on the SP, 1203.00-1201.00 on the Nasdaq and 443.20-442.10 on the Russell. If bears have control, look for the downside pressure to increase as the indexes test 816.75-816.00 on the SP, and 1196.00-1194.50 and 439.40-438.20 for the Nasdaq and Russell. GOOD LUCK.


.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 849.25-850.00 1242.00-1244.00 465.80-466.90
Resistance 3 842.50-844.00 1235.50-1236.00 458.00-458.40
Resistance 2 837.50-839.00 1224.50-1226.00 454.10-455.00
Resistance 1 832.00-834.00 1218.00-1219.50 450.80-452.10
PIVOT 835.00 1220.00 451.20
Support 1 827.50-825.75 1210.00-1208.00 447.60-446.10
Support 2 823.00-821.00 1203.00-1201.00 443.20-442.10
Support 3 816.75-816.00 1196.00-1194.50 439.40-438.20
Support 4 811.50-810.50 1188.00-1186.00 435.00-433.90


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
887.52 1306.66 486.61
881.98 1297.34 482.79
873.00 1282.25 476.60
864.02 1267.16 470.41
858.48 1257.84 466.59
849.50 1242.75 460.40
840.52 1227.66 454.21
837.75 1223.00 452.30
834.98 1218.34 450.39
826.00 1203.25 444.20
817.02 1188.16 438.01
811.48 1178.84 434.19
802.50 1163.75 428.00
793.52 1148.66 421.81
787.98 1139.34 417.99



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 839.50 1247.50 454.80
AS DAILY LOW 816.00 1208.00 438.60

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

 

[arturo1]

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 06-February-2009


Cisco sales forecast, Dell downgrade, BoE lowering rates by half point, Initial Claims increase to 626K, a26 year high, continuing Claims at a new record high at 4.79 million. U.S Factory Orders down 3.9%. Bank of America tumbles to a 25 year low but recovers on expectations of rescue plans . Markets reversed early losses closing in the green.


ECONOMIC DATA
8:30 AM Average Workweek
8:30 AM Hourly Earnings
8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls
8:30 AM Unemployment Rate
2:00 PM Consumer Credit



YESTERDAY’S MARKET
After a negative Globex session, the E-mini SP started the day at 822.00 from where it bounced to 825.50. The index pulled back a couple of points and bounced printing a double top in the intraday charts. Unable to break higher, the SP sold to new lows, this time at 816.75. With the Nasdaq recovering from its negative open, the SP bounced to 823.00 pulled back to 819.50 and rallied to 824.25, after holding there for a few minutes, the SP rallied to 829.00 and continued higher reaching 837.75. After pulling back to 833.50, the index rallied to my 838.50 intraday resistance level. After holding near the highs for almost thirty minutes, the markets continue to press higher in an impressive rally. The SP reached 847.75 and pulled back to 840.00, rallied three points, sat back to 839.50 and rallied once more, reaching 849.00 before some profit taking was seen. The SP pulled back to 837.00 just to get bought once more reaching 844.50 and traded sideways into the end of the session, for the day the SP closed higher by 10.75 points at 840.50, the Nasdaq added 20.50 points and settled at 1234.50 and the Russell closed at 451.00, up 1.90 points for the day. The Dow gained 106.00 and closed the day at 8063.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Yesterday I wrote: “Markets seem to be comfortable trading in the 800.00-850.00 range and probably will continue to hold these ranges during today’s trading session. Obviously, at the moment that the recent ranges get broken, a major breakout will happen. Everybody seems to be waiting for tomorrow’s unemployment reports, traders are waiting for the stimulus plan and the decision about the toxic assets, so all this uncertainty is resulting in a sideways pattern that at this time, looks that it will get broken to the downside. Too many tests of the 800.00 area on the SP make me think that the market will trade below that level, a false break, a higher low around the November lows or anew low, could be the next move, but I do expect the “obvious support” to get violated. The same is true for the other indexes, in particular the Dow, which has been the weakest, a break of the 7800 level could indicate much lower prices. Yesterday’s close near the lows has placed the indexes in a difficult position, and markets may be considered weak all the time that yesterday’s highs remain intact, the next “thing” in the daily chart could be a wide range down session, and if that do not happens, with most of the traders on the sidelines waiting for tomorrow’s economic reports, then we could see a narrow range session where markets show more consolidation before the next breakout attempt, and if the SP is able to hold, after yesterday’s higher high and higher low, the markets could rally. It is very difficult to forecast the next move all the time that the markets are trading in a sideways pattern, but if today, the markets hold, it will start to look like it wants to go up before the next test of the November lows.”

After making the daily low exactly at our 816.75 support level on a scary move that looked as if we will have a strong downside move, markets rallied on news of the upcoming new bailout plan, that probably will be announced next Monday and as I understand it, it will leave the situation as it is now, nothing that in the long term will avoid more financial bankruptcies.
The strong reversal, in all the indexes from yesterday’s lows, has negated the most recent pattern were a near test of the November lows was the most probable scenario, and despite, that the markets continue to traded in a sideways pattern, the buying pressure, with increased volume seen during yesterday’s session, could result in a rally that may last for today and next week.
Today’s story will be written by the unemployment report, everybody has been anticipating a terrible number, but with the strong support seen at the recent lows, the trapped shorts at the recent lows, the expectations about the new bailout plan for the banks and the stimulus plan to get approved soon, markets could surprise us and put a strong rally for today’s session.
I can not argue that the sideways pattern has indications of a strong upside break, but it seems to me, that with the recent sell off attempts that failed to gain downside momentum, the buying pressure will result in an upside move fueled more by short covering than by new buyers coming into the markets.
So, with the job report to get released before the opening, trying to forecast the next move seems to be just speculation, my recommendation, if the markets rally, stay with the trend, if the markets sell off, try to be a buyer near the support levels as a reversal from lower prices could happen as traders focus on the next week “magic” plans and decisions.


TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance at yesterday’s late highs at 843.50-845.00 on the SP, 1241.00-1243.50 on the Nasdaq and 452.70-454.40 on the Russell. If the market opens above them they should act as early support, and the next resistance, at yesterday’s highs, could get easily tested, those area at 849.00-850.00 on the SP, 1249.00-1250.75 on the Nasdaq and 457.00-458.20 on the Russell. These are the obvious resistance areas, beware of a reversal at those levels, but be sure that stops are sitting just above them , so if the markets finally breakout of the current ranges expect the indexes to go for the 854.00-855.25 on the SP, 1261.00-1262.00 on the Nasdaq and 460.10-461.20 on the Russell. If the markets want to show their muscles, those will get exceeded as the SP trades at the 860.00’s levels.


Initial support at yesterday’s late lows at 837.00-835.50 on the SP, 1228.00-1226.00 on the Nasdaq and 449.30-447.60 on the Russell, if those can not hold, look for a test of the KEY support levels at 831.00-830.00 on the SP, 1221.00-1218.50 on the Nasdaq and 444.90-443.80 on the Russell. Nothing bad happens all the time that those hold, but if the markets break below them, look for the selling pressure to increase pushing the markets down to 825.00-824.00 on the SP, 1209.00-1208.00 on the Nasdaq and 441.00-440.50 on the Russell. Trading below them, on a Friday, could easily result in much lower prices into the close. GOOD LUCK.

.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 859.00-861.00 1269.50-1272.00 464.60-465.70
Resistance 3 854.00-855.25 1261.00-1262.00 460.10-461.20
Resistance 2 849.00-850.00 1249.00-1250.75 457.00-458.20
Resistance 1 843.50-845.00 1241.00-1243.50 452.70-454.40
PIVOT 835.50 1223.00 450.60
Support 1 837.00-835.50 1228.00-1226.00 449.30-447.60
Support 2 831.00-830.00 1221.00-1218.50 444.90-443.80
Support 3 825.00-824.00 1209.00-1208.00 441.00-440.50
Support 4 821.00-819.75 1201.00-1199.50 433.80-432.90


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
901.18 1353.21 489.53
893.57 1338.04 485.17
881.25 1313.50 478.10
868.93 1288.96 471.03
861.32 1273.79 466.67
849.00 1249.25 459.60
836.68 1224.71 452.53
832.88 1217.13 450.35
829.07 1209.54 448.17
816.75 1185.00 441.10
804.43 1160.46 434.03
796.82 1145.29 429.67
784.50 1120.75 422.60
772.18 1096.21 415.53
764.57 1081.04 411.17



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 860.50 1274.00 464.60
AS DAILY LOW 828.50 1210.00 446.10​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

 

[arturo1]

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 09-February-2009



Nonfarm Payrolls down 598K, its worst month since 1974, Unemployment Rate at 7.6%, a 16 year high. Markets rallied strong on expectations that the Senate will approve the stimulus plan and the treasury will announce a new TARP program.


WEEKLY PIVOTS FOR WEEK ENDING 13- February-2008

R3 910.75
R2 900.00
R1 879.25
PP 848.00
S1 856.00
S2 833.50
S3 785.00

ECONOMIC DATA
None

WEEKLY RECAP
This was a great week for the U.S. markets. With expectations growing about the stimulus plan and a new bailout program that could rescue the banks from going bankrupt or getting nationalize, investors felt good and pushed the markets up. When bad news becomes good news pushing markets up, we have a bullish scenario. After a negative opening during last Monday’s trading session as a result of a negative earnings outlook, with Mattel and Humana reporting lower than expected earnings and with the news of Macy’s cutting 7000 jobs, markets couldn’t open with gains, further more, the Personal Income report and the Personal spending data came out at minus 1%, a record sixth straight month contraction. Later in the session the mood changed once the ISM index bounced from record lows. The session was volatile and the close was mixed with the SP losing 1.25 points and closing at 821.25, the Nasdaq closed higher by 9.50 points at 1188.75 and the Russell gained 4.90 points ending the session at 447.50. The Dow lost 64 points closing the day at 7936. Tuesday’s session markets started with some optimism as the Senate started to discuss the stimulus plan, earnings continued to be gloomy as UPS missed estimates and Dow Chemical reported a $1.55 billion loss, automakers reported their worst sales in 26 years but the Pending Home Sales report came out 6.3% higher than the previous month giving the markets a good lift. For the day, the SP ended higher by 10.25 points at 831.50, the Nasdaq gained 19.00 points at 1207.75 and the Russell ended up by 1.60 points at 449.10. The Dow rallied strong gaining 141 pints closing the session at 8078. Wednesday’s session was full of “good stuff”, President Obama’s populist initiative to limit executive compensations, Treasury still delivering about toxic assets guarantees that maybe will be known as early as today and with the ADP Employment figures better than expected, only a loss of 522K jobs in the private sector during January markets traded in positive territory for most of the Globex session. Later in the day, the ISM Services index showed an increase to 42.9; however the early rally was reversed as markets weight the negative Cisco earnings and outlook report and the intraday drop of more than 10% in the value of Bank of America. The session closed with mixed as the SP lost1.75 points closing the session at 829.75, the Nasdaq added 6.25 points and settled at 1214.00 and the Russell closed unchanged for the session at 449.10. The Dow lost 121 points closing the session at 7956. Thursday’s session started with a negative sentiment but very quick the early losses gave way to a reversal. Initial weekly claims which increased to 626K, a 26 year high, Continuing Claims at a new record high at 4.79 million and U.S Factory Orders down 3.9%were not enough for the buyers to stay far from the markets. Early losses were reversed once Bank of America shares bounced from a 25 year lows as rumors about a new rescue plan lifted the banking sector. The close was on the green, the SP closed higher by 10.75 points at 840.50, the Nasdaq added 20.50 points and settled at 1234.50 and the Russell closed at 451.00, up 1.90 points for the day. The Dow gained 106.00 and closed the day at 8063. Friday’s started with strength dismissing the news that 598K nonfarm jobs were lost during January. This report exceeded expectations were the most seen since 1975. Unemployment rate came out at 7.6%. However traders focused on the stimulus plan approval and the ready to be announced government's plan to help banks and the broader financial system. Shorts were squeezed during the session and the markets held strong during all the day. The SP added 27.25 points and settled at 867.75, the Nasdaq ended higher by 41.25 points at 1275.75 and the Russell added 18.50 points at 469.50 and the Dow ended higher by 217 points at 8280.




FRIDAY’S MARKETS
With markets waiting during the Globex session for the release of the January job reports, the nightly session wan quite and with a sideways patter, once the data was released the SP moved lower to 836.75 but bounced immediately reaching 848.25. The E-mini SP started the session at 843.75 from where it pulled to 841.50 just to rally fast and strong up to 856.00. With no selling coming into the markets, the SP continued higher reaching my 859.00 resistance area. After pulling back to 854.50, the index bounced back and posted a double top. Another pullback to 854.00 held and the SP continued to trade in a four point range holding its daily gains. With volumes lightening the SP posted a new marginal high at 859.50 but with the buying pressure still present in all the markets, the index continued higher reaching 862.25 while trading for a long period in a four point range. As the session continued with no selling coming into the markets, the indexes pushed to a new high, this time the SP reached 864.00 and once it broke above it got to the 868.50 level. Keeping its bullish momentum the SP pulled back to 863.50 and bounced to print a double top at 868.50 and finally backed off testing support at 860.00 and rallying to a new marginal high posting a strong end to the week. For the day, the SP gained 27.25 points and settled at 867.75, the Nasdaq ended higher by 41.25 points at 1275.75 and the Russell added 18.50 points at 469.50. The Dow ended higher by 217 points at 8280.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Last Friday I wrote:” The strong reversal, in all the indexes from yesterday’s lows, has negated the most recent pattern were a near test of the November lows was the most probable scenario, and despite, that the markets continue to traded in a sideways pattern, the buying pressure, with increased volume seen during yesterday’s session, could result in a rally that may last for today and next week. Today’s story will be written by the unemployment report, everybody has been anticipating a terrible number, but with the strong support seen at the recent lows, the trapped shorts at the recent lows, the expectations about the new bailout plan for the banks and the stimulus plan to get approved soon, markets could surprise us and put a strong rally for today’s session. The sideways pattern has indications of a strong upside break, but it seems to me, that with the recent sell off attempts that failed to gain downside momentum, the buying pressure will result in an upside move fueled more by short covering than by new buyers coming into the markets. My recommendation, if the markets rally, stay with the trend, if the markets sell off, try to be a buyer near the support levels as a reversal from lower prices could happen as traders focus on the next week “magic” plans and decisions.”

Friday’s strong rally, after the depressing job report has to be considered highly bullish, bad news became good news for the markets as the government will have to push harder to approve the stimulus plan and a second bank bailout that manages to avoid additional shareholders losses. Are these events already priced in the markets or the upside move is due to continue? Friday’s strong rally could show a day or two of consolidation, but the bullish breakout above the 850.00 area on the SP continues to signal buying support and the strength on the Nasdaq keeps indication short term higher prices, unless Friday’s action has exhausted the move. This is a countertrend move in a primary downtrend market and its potential, once it breaks above the next resistance levels at 876.00-880.00 is the 940.00 level where many traders will be ready to take a short position.
The daily charts show that after the SP respected the 820.00-800.00 area and the Dow held the 7800 level markets may be ready for another test of the 880.00 and 8400 levels respectively, and if they manage to break above them, the 940.00 and 9000 level will be the next objective and they should be reached during the next 12 sessions. Obviously, failure to break the next resistance areas will result in the resumption of the downtrend. So, if the markets area ready to move up it should happen this week and it will be a news related move. At this moment we have to assume that the markets are not trending down anymore and the wide sideways pattern that has been in play since the end of November continues to be valid, so the third test of the resistance areas is the highest probable scenario.
So if today’s trading session result in a negative day, it can not be considered as another failure of a rally attempt, it will take more than three days of trending down to be able to call another short term top. Taking all this in account and with the government plans to be announced maybe today, try to stay on a defensive position, that means, play both sides of the markets using the support and resistance areas while trying to hold a bullish bias in what can be another wide range up day as this countertrend move reaches the next upside resistance areas. Keep following the Nasdaq for market direction, if that index continues to outperform the SP, markets should continue to move higher, take into account that many shorts were trapped in Friday’s fast and strong upside turn from the early lows, and as the markets continue to move up, those should fuel the momentum that appears to be building the next bull trap.



TODAY’S SESSION
Initial resistance at 871.00-873.00 on the SP, 1282.00-1284.00 on the Nasdaq and 471.60-473.00 on the Russell. If the markets will consolidate some of last week gains, those areas could offer a good shorting opportunity, however, if the bullishness continues, look for the indexes to push higher reaching 876.50-878.00 on the SP, 1289.00-1290.50 on the Russell and 475.80-477.60 on the Russell. Breaking above them will result in additional short covering pushing the markets up to 883.50-884.50 on the SP, 1294.00-1296.00 on the Nasdaq and 481.70-482.00 on the Russell.

Look for some support at 864.00-862.00 on the SP, 1271.00-1269.50 on the Nasdaq and 467.40-465.40 on the Russell. If the markets push lower, a test of last Friday’s late lows at 858.50-857.00 on the SP, 1262.00-1261.00 on the Nasdaq and 462.70-461.00 on the Russell could be seen before the rally resumes. However, if those do not hold, look for the profit taking to continue to the next support areas at 852.50-851.00 on the SP, 1254.00-1251.50 on the Nasdaq and 457.00-455.60 on the Russell. GOOD LUCK.
.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 889.50-891.00 1302.75-1304.50 485.80-487.50
Resistance 3 883.50-884.50 1294.00-1296.00 481.70-482.00
Resistance 2 876.50-878.00 1289.00-1290.50 475.80-477.60
Resistance 1 871.00-873.00 1282.00-1284.00 471.60-473.00
PIVOT 858.00 1261.75 463.00
Support 1 864.00-862.00 1271.00-1269.50 467.40-465.40
Support 2 858.50-857.00 1262.00-1261.00 462.70-461.00
Support 3 852.50-851.00 1254.00-1251.50 457.00-455.60
Support 4 846.50-845.00 1246.00-1244.00 452.80-451.10


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
921.84 1359.19 507.99
914.17 1347.56 502.61
901.75 1328.75 493.90
889.34 1309.94 485.19
881.67 1298.31 479.81
869.25 1279.50 471.10
856.84 1260.69 462.39
853.00 1254.88 459.70
849.17 1249.06 457.01
836.75 1230.25 448.30
824.34 1211.44 439.59
816.67 1199.81 434.21
804.25 1181.00 425.50
791.84 1162.19 416.79
784.17 1150.56 411.41



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 884.75 1302.25 481.70
AS DAILY LOW 852.25 1253.00 458.90​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

 

[arturo1]

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 10-February-2009

Delays on Obama’s financial rescue plans, Nissan to cut 20K jobs, Barclays strong second half as Lehman makes “strong start” result in a session where stocks fluctuate. Bank of America and GE shares soared.


ECONOMIC DATA
10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories


YESTERDAY’S MARKET
Global and futures markets traded with losses during the nightly session. The E-mini SP started the session at 865.00 bouncing to 866.50. With no additional buying coming into the markets the SP backed off to 862.00 and then traded in a narrow range bouncing up to the previous 866.50 high where a double top invited sellers to come in pushing the index down to 859.00. Unable to push lower, the SP moved up to 864.00 and after trading in a sideways pattern finally broke up reaching new highs at my 873.00 resistance area. As traders stood on the sidelines waiting for news about the stimulus and bailout plans, the indexes traded on a limited range. The SP pulled down to 864.50 where the sell off attempt failed to gain momentum. As volumes continue to be ultra light, the index bounced slowly reaching 871.00 but the failure to trade at new highs resulted in another round of selling. The SP sold off to 863.50, after a feeble bounce the index pushed down to 860.75 where the lost its momentum. The SP bounced all the way up to 870.50but pulled back into the close. For the day, the SP lost 2.75points and settled at 865.00, The Nasdaq was unchanged for the session at 1275.75 and the Russell gave back 2.90 closing the session at 466.60. The Dow ended lower by 9 points finishing the session at 8270.



MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Yesterday I wrote: “? Friday’s strong rally could show a day or two of consolidation, but the bullish breakout above the 850.00 area on the SP continues to signal buying support and the strength on the Nasdaq keeps indication short term higher prices, unless Friday’s action has exhausted the move. This is a countertrend move in a primary downtrend market and its potential, once it breaks above the next resistance levels at 876.00 and 880.00 is the 940.00 level where many traders will be ready to take a short position. The daily charts show that after the SP respected the 820.00-800.00 area and the Dow held the 7800 level markets may be ready for another test of the 880.00 and 8400 levels respectively, and if they manage to break above them, the 940.00 and 9000 level will be the next objective and they should be reached during the next 12 sessions. Obviously, failure to break the next resistance areas will result in the resumption of the downtrend. So, if the markets area ready to move up it should happen this week and it will be a news related move. At this moment we have to assume that the markets are not trending down anymore and the wide sideways pattern that has been in play since the end of November continues to be valid, so the third test of the resistance areas is the highest probable scenario.
So if today’s trading session result in a negative day, it can not be considered as another failure of a rally attempt, it will take more than three days of trending down to be able to call another short term top. Taking all this in account and with the government plans to be announced maybe today, try to stay on a defensive position, that means, play both sides of the markets using the support and resistance areas while trying to hold a bullish bias in what can be another wide range up day as this countertrend move reaches the next upside resistance areas. Keep following the Nasdaq for market direction, if that index continues to outperform the SP, markets should continue to move higher, take into account that many shorts were trapped in Friday’s fast and strong upside turn from the early lows, and as the markets continue to move up, those should fuel the momentum that appears to be building the next bull trap.”

Markets waited for the release of the stimulus and new bailout plan announcements that were delayed for today, and, as expected, the indexes consolidated showing a narrow range session where the daily lows were made during the Globex session. Its obvious the resistance area at 875.00 on the SP, its obvious the 8350-8400 resistance levels for the Dow, and all the time that the markets keep trading below those areas, there is a chance of another failure, until now, the markets have only widen their trading ranges.
Yesterday’s consolidation will probably result in a strong breakout, which at this point and despite our bullish arguments any further rally is in jeopardy. Weakness during two consecutive Globex sessions could be an indication that even if players are ready to push higher, they are waiting for lower levels to go into the markets, so this open the possibility to see a negative session.
Today’s trading session will be highly influenced by the news coming out from Washington so anything can happen, buy the rumor and sell the news? Another sharp rally like the one we saw last Friday? I still favor a bullish near term scenario, but the markets will have to make the move during this week, make it or break it. Even with the SP and Nasdaq which are showing more solid patterns than the Dow, markets could go for another test of the recent lows if today’s session is followed by another negative day.
In conclusion, both scenarios are valid at this moment, a failure that already happened yesterday near the 875.00 January high, or a breakout that pushes markets to their next resistance areas. Trade a small position and use our pivot points for market direction, also, keep watching the Nasdaq for market direction, take into account that when the financial plans will get released we could see a strong downward move, that if the trend is still up, it will have to get reversed during the last two hours of the session or give way to higher prices for the rest of the week.


TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance at yesterday’s late highs at 866.75-868.50 on the SP, 1278.00-1280.50 on the Nasdaq and 467.40-468.30 on the Russell. If those get exceeded, another test of yesterday’s highs at 871.00-873.00 on the SP, 1284.00-1285.00 on the Nasdaq and 469.80-470.80 on the Russell could be seen. If finally the markets move up look for a test of the January highs at 875.00-876.50 on the SP, 1290.00-1291.50 on the Nasdaq and 472.90-475.10 on the Russell. Breaking above them will indicate a test of the 888.00 area on the SP during the coming sessions.


There is initial support at 863.00-861.00 on the SP 1272.00-1270.50 on the Nasdaq and 464.90-468.30 on the Russell. Failing to hold there will push markets lower reaching 858.00-856.00 on the SP, 1267.00-1265.50 on the Nasdaq and 461.50-459.30 on the Russell. By the time that I am writing my support those have already failed and markets are testing yesterday’s Globex lows at 853.00-851.50 on the SP, 1260.00-1258.00 on the Nasdaq and 458.70-456.90 on the Russell. Those are key support areas and if they hold, the uptrend will remain intact. GOOD LUCK.
.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 883.00-885.00 1298.00-1300.50 479.70-480.10
Resistance 3 875.00-876.50 1290.00-1291.50 472.90-475.10
Resistance 2 871.00-872.00 1284.00-1285.00 469.80-470.80
Resistance 1 866.75-868.50 1278.00-1280.50 467.40-468.30
PIVOT 863.50 1273.00 466.10
Support 1 863.00-861.00 1272.00-1270.50 464.90-464.10
Support 2 858.00-856.00 1267.00-1265.50 461.50-459.30
Support 3 853.00-851.50 1260.00-1258.00 458.70-456.90
Support 4 845.50-843.50 1252.00-1251.00 456.00-454.80


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
905.76 1330.00 485.29
900.99 1323.51 483.11
893.25 1313.00 479.60
885.51 1302.50 476.09
880.74 1296.01 473.91
873.00 1285.50 470.40
865.26 1275.00 466.89
862.88 1271.75 465.80
860.49 1268.51 464.71
852.75 1258.00 461.20
845.01 1247.50 457.69
840.24 1241.01 455.51
832.50 1230.50 452.00
824.76 1220.00 448.49
819.99 1213.51 446.31



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 869.00 1294.00 468.50
AS DAILY LOW 848.75 1266.00 459.30​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

 

[arturo1]

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 11-February-2009


UBS $7.57 billion loss on fourth quarter, GM to cut 10K jobs and reduces management pay up to 10%, Fannie and Freddie seeking another $200 billion, FedEx down as economic crisis is accelerating, Wholesale inventories down 1.4%.. Treasury plan may cost $2 trillion. Markets sold off as confidence fail to get restore among investors.

ECONOMIC DATA
10:35 AM Crude Inventories
2:00 PM Treasury Budget


YESTERDAY’S MARKET
For a second straight session, futures markets traded with losses during the Gobex session. The E-mini SP started the session at 858.25, pulled to 858.00 and started to push higher reaching 866.00.The index pulled back to 860.50 fro9m where it bounced to 863.50 just to fail and get sold all the way down to 853.00. As traders waited for Secretary Geithner to release the new bailout plan, the SP bounced to 856.50 from where it pulled back once more and bounced to test the 857.75 level. After trading in a narrow range and once the bailout plan content was known, the SP rallied all the way up to 862.00, sold off to 856.00, after failing to hold there, the index pushed strong down to 846.00 where a double bottom failed to hold pushing to a new low at 842.75 while the E-mini Dow reached 8002. Once those levels were tested, just below our fourth support areas, the SP bounced to 850.25 where the short covering failed. As the selling resumed the SP pushed down strongly reaching 831.75 from where it bounced to 836.00 just to fell and test the daily lows. Another short covering move managed to reach 839.50 on the SP from where the index moved down posting a higher low at 834.00 and bouncing to 840.00 where the rally failed. As the head of the FED, Bernanke, started his testimony, the SP made a new low at 826.50. As the lows held, the SP bounced to 832.00 but failed to break higher pulling back to new lows at 823.25 from where it bounced a few points just to continue with the same pattern breaking to new lows at 819.50 and bouncing into the end of the session. For the day, the SP lost 38.00 points and settled at 827.00, the Nasdaq ended lower by 43.25 points ending the session at 1232.50 and the Russell lost 20.20 points finishing the session at 446.40. the Dow ended with a huge loss of 381 points at 7888.



MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Yesterday I wrote: “It is obvious the resistance area at 875.00 on the SP, its obvious the 8350-8400 resistance levels for the Dow, and all the time that the markets keep trading below those areas, there is a chance of another failure, until now, the markets have only widen their trading ranges. Yesterday’s consolidation will probably result in a strong breakout, which at this point and despite our bullish arguments any further rally is in jeopardy. Weakness during two consecutive Globex sessions could be an indication that even if players are ready to push higher, they are waiting for lower levels to go into the markets, so this open the possibility to see a negative session. Even with the SP and Nasdaq which are showing more solid patterns than the Dow, markets could go for another test of the recent lows if today’s session is followed by another negative day. In conclusion, both scenarios are valid at this moment, a failure that already happened yesterday near the 875.00 January high, or a breakout that pushes markets to their next resistance areas. Trade a small position and use our pivot points for market direction, also, keep watching the Nasdaq for market direction, take into account that when the financial plans will get released we could see a strong downward move, that if the trend is still up, it will have to get reversed during the last two hours of the session or give way to higher prices for the rest of the week”.


Despite the fact that we have been short term bullish, we came into yesterday’s trading session facing the strong resistance area at the 875.00 level on the SP and with an open mind to see a negative session; however, the huge losses surprised me. Yesterday’s huge sell off could be resolved in a few ways, the first one, an inside day where markets consolidate yesterday’s move before the next directional move happens, the second one, a consolidation near the lows or a new low that finally will signal a test of the November lows, and finally, a reversal that gives way to higher prices for the next five to seven trading sessions despite next Monday’s President’s Day Holiday.
Yesterday’s action came as a consequence of the expected news,” buy the rumor, sell the news”, the volumes were higher, and regardless that the reality has been draw in the daily charts, we could see a recovery if the markets hold yesterday’s lows for the first half of the session. On the other side of the coin, another negative session or a narrow range session where the markets stay near yesterday’s lows or near unchanged levels for the close has bearish implications. So the story depends of what happen during today’s session, if we see follow through for yesterday’s move, traders like me, that have pointed for higher prices before another test of the November lows or a before another marginal low, will have to throw away the towel, and wait for another opportunity that after a new capitulation could result in a vertical upside move.
So “make it or break it”, this long term sideways pattern could get resolved to either side, and to avoid the test of the November lows or a new capitulation move, a strong rally will have to be seen during today’s trading action. Taking this into account, I will follow the opening price and use it as an intraday pivot point, long with tight stops above it, trailing my stop loss orders, as selling the rallies seems logical, but with an open mind for a reversal of yesterday’s losses that catch shorts by surprise in the same way that bulls were fooled by yesterday’s huge sell off.


TODAY’S SESSION
There is strong resistance at yesterday’s late highs at 831.00-832.50 on the SP, 1238.00-1240.00 on the Nasdaq and 448.90-451.30on the Russell. If those get exceeded, look for the markets to reach their next levels at 836.00-837.50 on the SP, 1246.50-1248.00 on the Nasdaq and 454.00-455.10 on the Russell. If that does not end a rebound, markets should be able to struggle up to their next areas at 840.00-842.00 on the SP, 1256.00-1258.00 on the Nasdaq and 458.90-460.20 on the Russell. Those are KEY levels, and nothing good happens if the markets fail there.


There is support just above yesterday’s lows at 822.75-821.00 on the SP, 1226.00-1224.00 on the Nasdaq and 443.80-442.60 on the Russell. An early pullback that holds those levels could give way to a strong rally, however, if those can not hold, bulls still have a chance to get long at 818.00-816.50 on the SP, 1220.00-1218.00 on the Nasdaq and 439.80-438.90 on the Russell. Failing to hold there could give way to a new round of selling pushing the markets down to 810.00-808.50 on the SP, 1211.00-1208.50 on the Nasdaq and 436.10-435.60 in the Russell. If those can not hold, we may see the 800.00 area on the SP before the session is over. GOOD LUCK.
.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 850.00-851.50 1268.00-1270.00 463.30-464.60
Resistance 3 840.00-842.00 1256.00-1258.00 458.90-460.20
Resistance 2 836.00-837.50 1246.50-1248.00 454.00-455.10
Resistance 1 831.00-832.50 1238.00-1240.00 448.90-451.30
PIVOT 837.50 1246.50 453.30
Support 1 822.75-821.00 1226.00-1224.00 443.80-442.60
Support 2 818.00-816.50 1220.00-1218.00 439.80-438.90
Support 3 810.00-808.50 1211.00-1208.50 436.10-435.60
Support 4 801.50-800.00 1199.00-1197.00 431.10-430.00


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
941.24 1390.36 513.72
930.26 1375.14 507.38
912.50 1350.50 497.10
894.74 1325.86 486.82
883.76 1310.64 480.48
866.00 1286.00 470.20
848.24 1261.36 459.92
842.75 1253.75 456.75
837.26 1246.14 453.58
819.50 1221.50 443.30
801.74 1196.86 433.02
790.76 1181.64 426.68
773.00 1157.00 416.40
755.24 1132.36 406.12
744.26 1117.14 399.78



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 846.50 1259.25 458.30
AS DAILY LOW 800.00 1194.75 431.40





Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

 

[arturo1]

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 12-February-2009


U.S trade deficit falls to six year low. BoE: Britain in “deep recession”. Credit Suisse post wider than expected loss, $5.2 billion. Concerns that the stimulus plan won’t avoid further deterioration of the economy gave way to a quite session with moderate gains.


ECONOMIC DATA
8:30 AM Initial Claims
8:30 AM Retail sales
8:30 AM Retail sales ex- auto
10:00 AM Business Inventories




YESTERDAY’S MARKET
After a nightly session where futures contract fluctuated with mixed results, the E-mini SP started the session at 829.50 from where it bounced to 831.50. With the Nasdaq trading in negative territory and our resistance areas just above the opening highs, the index pulled back to 828.00 and rallied quick testing the Globex 833.00 high. After a mild pullback to the 830.50, the SP continued to push higher reaching 835.50. With the Treasury Secretary ready to start his testimony, the SP pulled back to 827.50 where the index held. After trading in a narrow range, the index broke to new intraday lows reaching 824.50 but after holding the lows and despite increasing weakness in the Nasdaq, the SP bounced back to 829.00 and then to 832.25, backed off to 828.50 where it posted a double bottom and rallied to our updated resistance area at 836.25. As the rebound lost its momentum, the SP pulled back to 828.25 from where it pushed once more up reaching once more the 833.00 area. With the sideways pattern working out well, the SP pulled back to 827.25 and bounced to 830.00. After failing to break above that level, the SP moved to new daily lows at 821.25, just at our support areas. The e-mini SP bounced to 825.00 just to get sold to anew low at 819.50 posting a double bottom by matching the previous session lows. The index bounced to 827.00, and once it broke above it, pushed higher reaching 835.50, just below the daily highs. As the SP failed to make new highs, pulled back to 826.50 and bounced a bit into the end of the session. The SP ended higher by 4.50 points at 831.50, the Nasdaq lost 8.00 points and settled at 1224.50 and the Russell ended almost unchanged at 447.30. The Dow ended higher by 50 points at 7939.



MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Yesterday I wrote: “Despite the fact that we have been short term bullish, we came into yesterday’s trading session facing the strong resistance area at the 875.00 level on the SP and with an open mind to see a negative session; however, the huge losses surprised me. Yesterday’s huge sell off could be resolved in a few ways, the first one, an inside day where markets consolidate yesterday’s move before the next directional move happens, the second one, a consolidation near the lows or a new low that finally will signal a test of the November lows, and finally, a reversal that gives way to higher prices for the next five to seven trading sessions despite next Monday’s President’s Day Holiday. Yesterday’s action came as a consequence of the expected news,” buy the rumor, sell the news”, the volumes were higher, and regardless that the reality has been draw in the daily charts, we could see a recovery if the markets hold yesterday’s lows for the first half of the session. On the other side of the coin, another negative session or a narrow range session where the markets stay near yesterday’s lows or near unchanged levels for the close has bearish implications. So the story depends of what happen during today’s session, if we see follow through for yesterday’s move, traders like me, that have pointed for higher prices before another test of the November lows or a before another marginal low, will have to throw away the towel, and wait for another opportunity that after a new capitulation could result in a vertical upside move. So “make it or break it”, this long term sideways pattern could get resolved to either side, and to avoid the test of the November lows or a new capitulation move, a strong rally will have to be seen during today’s trading action.”

I considered that yesterday’s session could result in a consolidation of the previous daily huge sell off, I also wrote that only s strong rally could negate the bearish implications of the failure of the indexes to break above the 875.00 area on the SP and 8300-8400 on the Dow.
This is a trend pattern and a news guided market that makes difficult to predict the next move and where bulls and bears can not feel comfortable. A downside break of the last two sessions double bottom at 819.50 on the SP and the failure of the Dow to hold above the multi day support area at 7800 could give way to a breakdown move that could found support in the SP between the 800.00 and 790.00 area, and in the Dow, 7500 to 7400. On the upper side, the 840.00 area on the SP and the 8000 level in the Dow, even that they are critical to return to a neutral pattern does not mean that the downside risk has been eliminated, so markets has a lot of work to do before turning to the upside.
I can not rule out another strong relative session, I can not rule out a sell off that gets reversed during the same session or the next day, but I do think that we are approaching support for the recent move, because of this, I think that also short traders remain in risk, any news, any economic report, good or bad, could trigger s strong rally.
In one of my latest intraday updates, I mentioned the possibility to see an opening gap for today’s session, it seems that I was wrong and the opening will be negative, a gap in the other direction. Under this uncertainty where a rally, if it happens, don’t seem to have the elements to be sustained, any upside move have to be considered a selling opportunity until-unless the last high getr broken.
For today’s trading session, I want to act similar to yesterday, where the opening price will give me the clues for market direction, on any trade that I place or suggest, I hope near my support and resistance areas, I will use tight stops in order to avoid any big loss.

TODAY’S SESSION
There is strong resistance areas on the SP at, 833.00-834.50, 836.00-838.00 and 841.00-842.00, all of them could result in a strong reversal, so all of them have to get exceeded in order to turn the tide on that index. Resistance levels for the Nasdaq at 1227.00-1229.00, 1233.00-1234.00 and 1240.00-1242.00. Resistance levels for the Russell, 448.30-449.30, 452.20-453.30 and 457.00-458.20.

There is some support at 828.00-826.50 on the SP, 1221.00-1219.00 on the Nasdaq and 445.30-44.30 on the Russell, failing to hold there will press the markets down for a test of the 822.50-821.00 on the SP, 1215.00-1213.50 on the Nasdaq and 441.20-440.50 on the Russell, those are KEY support levels, if those can not hold, then weakness could be present for all the session pushing the markets down to 812.00-810.00 on the SP, 1206.00-1204.50 on the Nasdaq and 438.00-436.70 on the Russell.
E-mini Dow YM Resistance areas at: 7908, 7959, 8023 and 8093.
Pivot 7889
Support areas at: 7871, 7825, 7755 and 7691.

GOOD LUCK.
.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 845.00-846.50 1256.00-1258.50 561.50-462.00
Resistance 3 841.00-842.00 1240.00-1242.00 457.00-458.20
Resistance 2 836.00-838.00 1233.00-1234.00 452.20-453.30
Resistance 1 833.00-834.50 1227.00-1229.00 448.30-449.30
PIVOT 829.00 1223.50 446.10
Support 1 828.00-826.50 1221.00-1219.00 445.30-444.30
Support 2 822.50-821.00 1215.00-1213.50 441.20-440.50
Support 3 812.00-810.00 1206.00-1204.50 438.00-436.70
Support 4 806.00-805.00 1196.00-1195.00 432.10-431.60


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
863.35 1293.55 468.64
859.40 1285.70 466.06
853.00 1273.00 461.90
846.60 1260.30 457.74
842.65 1252.45 455.16
836.25 1239.75 451.00
829.85 1227.05 446.84
827.88 1223.13 445.55
825.90 1219.20 444.26
819.50 1206.50 440.10
813.10 1193.80 435.94
809.15 1185.95 433.36
802.75 1173.25 429.20
796.35 1160.55 425.04
792.40 1152.70 422.46



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 842.25 1232.00 449.20
AS DAILY LOW 825.50 1198.00 438.30​

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