Daily trading advisory

[arturo1]

Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 1st-July-2008

Chicago PMI near the 50 level and a mild pullback from the highs on Crude Oil prices resulted in a consolidating session with mixed results

ECONOMIC DATA

10:00 AM Construction Spending
10:00 AM ISM Index
12:00 AM Auto Sales
12:00 AM Truck Sales


YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

Markets ended mixed on a quite session. The E-mini SP opened at 1281.00 and rallied to our resistance at 1285.75. As expected the initial move failed driving the index lower to 1275.50, just at our support level where the daily low was printed on the charts. The lack of economic data, the mild pullback from the highs on the Crude Oil prices and the end of month bullish bias were enough to maintain the E-mini SP afloat. After making the low the index grinded up in a short covering move that reached 1291.00. The E-mini SP pulled back to 1286.25 where buyers stepped in driving the index to its daily high at 1292.00. Unable to break higher after reaching our upside objective and guided by the weak E-mini Nasdaq, the E-mini SP pulled back to 1286.75 where a triple bottom failed to hold resulting in another pullback to the 1281.00 area. Once more the market held, and the E-mini SP made all its way back up to 1288.75. Unable to gain additional momentum, the index gave back all of its gains and pushed down quick to 1279.25 before bouncing back a bit into the close. For the day, the E-mini SP settled almost unchanged adding 1.00 point at 1281.00, the E-mini Nasdaq lost 19.75 points closing the session at 1846.00 and the E-mini Russell ended lower by 7.20 points at 691.70. The Dow cash gave back all of its early gains ending the session almost unchanged at 11350.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote:” The size and extension of the last down move have place the indexes near levels where a bounce could be seen, if that bounce will be short lived or the indexes will start a consolidation period that finally will result in a mid term recovery from the recent loses, is something that only time will tell us, but the odds favor some kind of temporary bounce. Friday’s low on the E-mini SP has reached support levels and they should hold despite an intraday break bellow them and rally. However, if that rally will last more than one day and then get resolved with another steep fall, or the rally will be a 2-4 days move into the end of this holiday week and then later next week take out the recent lows it depends of what happens during today’s session. For today’s trading session I will expect some kind of rebound, but I am not so sure that it will be longer that one day and then move once more lower to make new lows in capitulation move that bring the markets to new lows bellow the March low. Only a rally that holds the recent lows for more than 14 days will indicate that a mid term low is in place. During today’s trading session I will go long on a test of Friday’s lows or I will try to play the bullish side of the markets all the time that the indexes are trading above my pivot point levels.’

The markets were able to rally during the first half of the session making easy for us to play from the long side, but later on the day the weakness on the techs and mid caps made both sides of the range tradable. Yesterday failed ‘rally” or consolidation session, should be enough for the markets to try and move higher in this shorted holiday week where the Unemployment data and Nonfarm payrolls information will get released on Thursday. May be that the E-mini SP will be able to reach the next level around 1310.00 and perhaps close the gap at 1320.00. HOWEVER, yesterday’s early lows around 1275.00 will have to holds on a pullback or we could have another wide range down day. Yesterday I wrote about the possibility that the index move higher in a 2-4 days countertrend move, and obviously, the E-mini SP tried to bring the markets up, but the weakness on the E-mini Nasdaq pushed the markets lower. So this mixed picture will have to get resolved with a rally in all the indexes or the current divergences will result in another slide for the US markets. I am not calling for a recovery and only if the indexes are able to move higher for more than 15 days, then some kind of bottom can be called. You have to take into account that consolidations at the lows normally break lower and the extreme weakness in the markets made difficult to sustain a rally, so we can have a bit more of sideways action with a mild bullish bias until the next strong move is seen. We have been waiting for a panic move that bring long traders to a capitulation with an increase on the VIX.X which at this moment does not show any concern, so I think we are far away to be able to call a bottom and a mid-term rally, so be aware that the 2-4 days rebound scenario is workable only if yesterday’s lows hold, and if not be ready for an acceleration of the downtrend and instead that the rebound last 2-4 days it only was 2-4 hours that already happened during yesterday’s session.



TODAY’S SESSION

There is resistance at yesterday’s intraday pivot area at 1284.00-1285.25 on the E-mini SP, 1853.75-1854.50 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 694.20-695.40 on the E-mini Russell. Nothing good happens all the time that the indexes keep trading bellows those levels, but if they manage to break higher, yesterday’s highs at 1290.00-1292.00 on the E-mini SP, 1863.50-1865.25 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 699.10-699.80 on the E-mini Russell will be an early objective if the markets are just consolidating the previous loses and not ready to move higher in front of the holiday. However, if finally there is some good short covering rally, the indexes should be able to reach the 1297.75-1299.50 areas on the E-mini SP, 1875.00-1877.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 701.90-702.60 on the E-mini Russell. If the indexes get there and the rally stalls, they could as yesterday, sell off into the end of the session.

There is support just bellow yesterday’s settlements at 1279.50-1278.00 on the E-mini SP, 1843.00-1840.75 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 689.20-688.00 on the E-mini Russell. If those do not hold, a false break that test yesterday’s or Friday’s lows at 1274.00-1273.00 on the E-mini SP, 1836.00-1834.50 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 685.80-684.30 on the E-mini Russell. If traders are not waiting in line to buy at those levels, there is a chance that we see another deep fall during today’s trading session writhe the next support levels at 1271.00-1269.50 on the E-mini SP, 1830.00-1829.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 682.00-680.60 on the E-mini Russell. Trading bellow those levels will indicate new yearly lows on all the indexes and a continuation of this strong downtrend. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1306.50-1308.00 1883.00-1884.50 706.30-707.40
Resistance 3 1297.75-1299.50 1875.00-1877.00 701.90-702.60
Resistance 2 1290.50-1292.00 1863.50-1865.25 699.10-699.80
Resistance 1 1284.00-1285.25 1853.75-1854.50 694.20-695.40
PIVOT 1282.75 1853.75 694.00
Support 1 1279.50-1278.00 1843.00-1840.75 689.20-688.00
Support 2 1274.00-1273.00 1836.00-1834.50 685.80-684.30
Support 3 1271.00-1269.50 1830.00-1829.00 682.00-680.60
Support 4 1266.00-1264.00 1823.00-1821.00 676.60-674.90


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1319.10 1922.75 723.58
1315.15 1915.50 720.42
1308.75 1903.75 715.30
1302.35 1892.00 710.18
1298.40 1884.75 707.02
1292.00 1873.00 701.90
1285.60 1861.25 696.78
1283.63 1857.63 695.20
1281.65 1854.00 693.62
1275.25 1842.25 688.50
1268.85 1830.50 683.38
1264.90 1823.25 680.22
1258.50 1811.50 675.10
1252.10 1799.75 669.98
1248.15 1792.50 666.82



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1286.50


1859.50 696.80
AS DAILY LOW 1269.75 1828.75 683.40​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
Index Futures Information Services - Emini Trading[/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE]

 

[arturo1]

Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 10-July-2008

US markets tumble on new concerns over additional credit loses and Crude oil lower prices.

ECONOMIC DATA

8:30 AM Initial Claims

YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

Markets sold off strongly breach closing at their worst levels in the last years. After a positive opening the markets got strongly reversed. The E-mini SP opened at 1276.00 and moved up to the 1278.00 area. The index pulled back to 1269.50 and bounced once more testing the early highs in what expected to be a quite and narrow range session. Failure to make new highs increased the selling pressure pushing the SP’s down to new lows at 1265.50 and the E-mini Nasdaq t 1853.00. Another feeble bounce to 1270.00 was met with strong selling pressure and once the indexes broke below their intraday lows, the downside accelerated pushing under our pivot levels. The Sp’s reached the 1344.00 area before bouncing into the end. For the day, the E-mini SP lost 25.75 points finishing at 1248.00, the E-mini Nasdaq ended lower by 37.00 points at 1831.50 and the E-mini Russell gave back 18.90 finishing the day at 664.00. The Dow plummet losing 236 points at 11147.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote:”Yesterday reaction from levels not seen during the last 4-5 years came as a countertrend move in a downtrend pattern that, I consider it has not been complete yet despite the fact that we have a temporary low that should hold for a few days. If the 1236.00 low on the E-mini SP was done during the regular trading hours I would not have any objection that it could be considered and important low, but the fact that it was not tested during the day, makes me a little suspicious about calling it “the low”. So, I suspect that if yesterday’s move extends this rebound into the coming sessions, later the markets will fall back to reach a new low bellow that Globex low. As a conclusion, I can say that yesterday’s rally could indicate that a short term low has been posted no matter if the Gobex low is tested once more during the upcoming days, but the markets will have to show some follow through into today’s session or the chances that yesterday’s move is only a pause in this strong downtrend will be intact.”


Yesterday’s reversal from the previous day rally has placed once more the indexes in a vulnerable position where the lows will have to hold or the risk of a panic selling could drive the indexes much lower. The fact that the indexes were not able to show some follow through keeps intact the possibility of a continuation of the downtrend and a panic capitulation that could drive the SP down to 1220.00 or in the worst case to 1180.00. However, the triple bottom seen during the last trading sessions could result also in a successful test of the lows or a marginal new low that becomes a false break and keep the E-mini SP in a trading range that can be easily seen on the daily charts (1240.00-1290.00). So in this critical juncture I will try to go day by day as anything can happen.



TODAY’S SESSION

There is strong resistance at 1251.75-1254.00 on the E-mini SP, 1836.50-1838.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 666.20-668.00 on the E-mini Russell. Nothing good happens if those areas are not exceeded with good momentum, so be ready to sell on a failure at those levels. But if the markets break higher and yesterday’s lows are in fact a triple bottom, look for the indexes to test their next levels at 1257.50-1258.50 on the SP’s ,1844.25-1846.00 on the Nasdaq and 670.70-671.90 on the Russell. If those areas do not stop the rally, then yesterday’s pivot areas at 1261.00-1262.00 on the Sp’s, 1854.50-1855.75 and 675.90-677.00 on the Nasdaq and Russell respectively could be reached before the session is over.

There is critical support at 1243.50-1241.75 on the E-mini SP, 1828.00-1826.50 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 661.90-660.30 on the E-mini Russell. If the indexes get there and hold a nice rally could be in the cards, but if they break lower, new lows at 1237.00-1235.50 on the SP’s, 1821.00-1820.00 on the Nasdaq and 652.10-651.00 on the Russell could be seen. Beware of a false break that reaches those levels and result in a strong reverse. However if that does not happen, expect the markets to keep moving lower and trade at 1230.00-1228.75 on the SP’s,1815.50-1814.25 on the NQ’s and 652.10-651.00 on the Russell. Those levels should coincide with a test of the 11000 on the Dow. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1266.75-1268.25 1862.00-1864.00 678.70-680.20
Resistance 3 1261.00-1262.00 1854.50-1855.75 675.90-677.00
Resistance 2 1257.50-1258.50 1844.25-1846.00 670.70-671.90
Resistance 1 1251.75-1254.00 1836.50-1838.00 666.20-668.00
PIVOT 1257.00 1844.25 669.90
Support 1 1243.50-1241.75 1828.00-1826.50 661.90-660.30
Support 2 1237.00-1235.50 1821.00-1820.00 657.50-655.80
Support 3 1230.00-1228.75 1815.50-1814.25 652.10-651.00
Support 4 1225.00-1223.50 1809.50-1807.00 646.30-645.10


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1333.76 1964.47 722.78
1325.74 1951.78 717.22
1312.75 1931.25 708.20
1299.76 1910.72 699.18
1291.74 1898.03 693.62
1278.75 1877.50 684.60
1265.76 1856.97 675.58
1261.75 1850.63 672.80
1257.74 1844.28 670.02
1244.75 1823.75 661.00
1231.76 1803.22 651.98
1223.74 1790.53 646.42
1210.75 1770.00 637.40
1197.76 1749.47 628.38
1189.74 1736.78 622.82



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1263.25 1854.75 674.30
AS DAILY LOW 1229.50 1800.50 650.70​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
Index Futures Information Services - Emini Trading[/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE]

 

[arturo1]

Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 11-July-2008

Initial Claims down, Bernanke’s demanding more power, Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac weakness ans higher crude oil prices resulted in a volatile session with modest earnings.

ECONOMIC DATA

8:30 AM Export Prices
8:30 AM Import Prices
8:30 AM Trade Balance
10:00 AM Michigan Sentiment- prel.


YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

In a volatile session and after making new lows, US markets managed to close on the green. The E-mini SP opened at 1245.25 and moved up quickly reaching 1253.50, just at our resistance area. As fast as it moved up and on an erratic behavior the index pushed down strongly making intraday lows at 1237.50 where buyers stepped in and driving the index higher back to 1249.50. A double top at that level kept the index of moving higher as it pulled back to 1243.00 after a few attempts to break lower, the SP’s managed to hold and rallied back to its 1253.50-1255.00 resistance areas. Another pullback held at 1246.00 resulting in a good short covering rally that reached 1258.75, almost the Globex high. Unable to print new highs, the index sold off strongly and without looking back made a new low at 1237.00. The double bottom was bought aggressively and the markets rallied back strong during the last hour of trading with the E-mini SP reaching 1255.00 into the close. For the day SP’s gained 6.50 points ending the session at 1254.50,the E-mini Nasdaq settled at 1844.25, up 12.75 points and the E-mini Russell at 671.00 up 7.00 points for the session. The Dow 81 points ending the day at 11229.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Last Wednesday I wrote:” If the 1236.00 low on the E-mini SP was done during the regular trading hours I would not have any objection that it could be considered and important low, but the fact that it was not tested during the day, makes me a little suspicious about calling it “the low”. So, I suspect that if yesterday’s move extends this rebound into the coming sessions, later the markets will fall back to reach a new low bellow that Globex low. As a conclusion, I can say that yesterday’s rally could indicate that a short term low has been posted no matter if the Gobex low is tested once more during the upcoming days, but the markets will have to show some follow through.” And Yesterday I wrote:”However, the triple bottom seen during the last trading sessions could result also in a successful test of the lows or a marginal new low that becomes a false break and keep the E-mini SP in a trading range that can be easily seen on the daily charts (1240.00-1290.00). So in this critical juncture I will try to go day by day as anything can happen.”

The E-mini SP reached the 1237.00 Globex low that I was talking about, and, exactly as I described yesterday, the break below the 1242.0-1240.00 area that tested the 1237.00 area twice was a false break and possible a short time low that could result in a 7-8 days rally. However further confirmation will have to be seen to call a low, and that confirmation will be two consecutive closes above the recent highs at 1278.00-1279.00. So some follow trough will have to be seen during today’s session in order to bring the markets to a neutral position. Take into account that a first signal of a good rally coming into the markets will be the SP’s exceeding our second resistance levels at 1261.75-1263.50 and 11450 on the Dow, if that happens, the move has the potential to move the indexes much higher during the coming weeks. So for today’s session try to stay on the long side all the time that the indexes keep trading above our pivotal areas but avoid a long position if the markets show loses as the bears could still have the control.



TODAY’S SESSION

There is initial resistance at 1256.50-1258.50 on the E-mini SP, 1848.50-1850.50 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 672.40-673.80 on the E-mini Russell. Those areas were rejected twice during yesterday’s trading session, so beware of another failure at those levels. If the indexes break higher, then a test of 1261.75-1263.50 on the SP’s, 1855.00-1856.50 on the Nasdaq and 675.90-677.20 on the Russell could be in the cards. If the move stalls there, a good reversal that pushes the indexes back down to the pivot point areas could happen, but if the markets want to show their muscles, then the next target will be at 1267.00-1268.28 on the SP’s, 1861.00-1862.25 on the NQ’s and 679.40-681.00 on the Russell.

There is support at 1250.50-1248.50 on the E-mini SP, 1840.00-1838.00 on the Nasdaq and 668.20-666.80 on the Russell. Those areas are pivotal, in particular on the SP’s. If the markets hold there then a multi day rally could surprise the shorts. If those fail, then the bottom of the weekly range on the E-mini SP at 1242.50-1241.00, 1834.00-1832.00 on the Nasdaq and 662.60-661.50 on the Russell will be visit again. If those do not hold, then the downside could accelerate with the only station near yesterday’s lows at 1238.00-1236.50 on the SP’s 1820.00-1818.00 on the NQ’s and 656.10-655.00 on the Russell. Any break below those levels will point to much lower prices into next week. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1272.00-1273.00 1868.00-1870.00 684.50-685.60
Resistance 3 1267.00-1268.25 1861.00-1862.25 679.40-681.00
Resistance 2 1261.75-1263.50 1855.00-1856.50 675.90-677.20
Resistance 1 1256.50-1258.50 1848.50-1850.50 672.40-673.80
PIVOT 1250.25 1835.50 669.30
Support 1 1250.50-1248.50 1840.00-1838.00 668.20-666.80
Support 2 1242.50-1241.00 1834.00-1832.00 662.60-661.50
Support 3 1238.00-1236.50 1820.00-1818.00 656.10-655.00
Support 4 1231.00-1229.75 1807.00-1805.50 652.20-651.40


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1295.25 1922.73 700.59
1290.00 1912.52 697.01
1281.50 1896.00 691.20
1273.00 1879.48 685.39
1267.75 1869.27 681.81
1259.25 1852.75 676.00
1250.75 1836.23 670.19
1248.13 1831.13 668.40
1245.50 1826.02 666.61
1237.00 1809.50 660.80
1228.50 1792.98 654.99
1223.25 1782.77 651.41
1214.75 1766.25 645.60
1206.25 1749.73 639.79
1201.00 1739.52 636.21



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1268.0 1870.00 681.10
AS DAILY LOW 1245.75 1826.50 665.90​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

 

[arturo1]

Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 15-July-2008

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac emergency plan were not enough to keep the markets on positive territory as fear of additional weakness on the bank sector resulted in more loses.

ECONOMIC DATA

8:30 AM PPI
8:30 AM Core PPI
8:30 AM New York Empire State Index
8:30 AM Retail sales
8:30 AM Retail sales exc-auto
10:00 AM Business Inventories

YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

Markets added lose after a positive opening. The equity indexes opened strong with the E-mini SP starting the session below the Globex highs and just at our resistance areas at 1256.00. Unable to move higher the indexes started a trend day that did not looked back. The SP’s made its way lower reaching 1340.25. A feeble bounce took the index back up to 1346.50 where a double top was met by sellers pushing the markets to new intraday lows, the SP’s tested 1237.00 from where it bounced back up to 1344.50. The short covering rally was sold once more and the index fell to 1335.50 where a double bottom tried to hold. Unable to move higher, the index just spilled down to a new low at 1226.00. The daily double bottom resulted in another bounce to 1232.00 from where back and forth action with new marginal lows gave way to a short covering rally that failed around 1238.00 and the indexes sold off once more into the close. By the end the E-mini SP lost another 11.50 points closing the session at 1228.25, the E-mini Nasdaq settled at 1802.50, minus 18 points and the E-mini Russell ended at 662.60 losing 11.00 points for the day. The Dow gave back another 45 points finishing the session at 11055.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote:”I have been trying to find a low near last week 1237.00 low on the SP’s, and even that low was crushed last Friday bringing the index to the 1225.50 level, the index managed to settle above that level. So if a short tern low has been posted and Friday’s new intraday low in a false break, then the E-mini SP should start to rally today. But we have to be aware that if this scenario do not play out and the opening rally fail after the first half of the session turning the indexes into negative territory, then the strong downtrend is intact and we will see lower lows. As a conclusion, we could have a good buying opportunity on an early pullback, but if that pullback place the indexes in negative territory avoid longs until the indexes trade back on the green. “
Yesterday’s session failed just from a Globex high near the 1262.00 area that has showed strong resistance during the last rally attempts and has place the indexes in a very weak position where a capitulation looks possible. A few sessions ago I mentioned the 1220.00 level on the E-mini SP as an objective for this leg down and from where we could see some kind of rebound that maybe last more than one session, but the extreme fear of more banks failure do not give the markets the conviction to move higher and under this scenario, the technical consolidations near the lows and the rejection of every rally attempt could result in another deep fall that could take the E-mini SP to the 1180.00 area before this leg down gets exhausted.

During the last sessions I have been calling for a short term low and many times during the session I have been playing the long side taking nice profits but missing most of the move, if I will call today for additional selling and a short of the indexes may be that we already reach the bottom. However once the E-mini SP managed to get back above the previous low at 1237.00 on a close, then this downward rhythm will get broken and the indexes should be able to rally. It is not normal to see two trend days in a row, so I will expect for today’s session two ways action as both sides of the market could be tradable, and in a lower opening keep your ayes open from a reversal once the E-mini SP reaches levels below 1220.00.

There is a bunch of economic data before the opening, so after the dust settled around 45 minutes after the opening try to follow the intraday trend and if the markets try to rally stay in your position and tight your stops as volatility tends to be higher near the lows.



TODAY’S SESSION

There is resistance at 1246.75-1248.50 on the E-mini SP, 1827.25-1828.75 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 675.60-677.40 on the E-mini Russell. If the markets are ready for some recovery in this option expiration week, those levels must get exceeded and hold on a pullback, if that happens, then the next resistance areas at 1253.50-1255.00 on the SP’s, 1835.00-1836.50 on the Nasdaq and 680.10-682.00 should be tested. Those levels are critical in particular on the SP’s as the markets have to trade above them in order to break the downside rhythm, if they manage to do so, then last week turning point at 1259.75-1261.50 on the SP’s, 1842.00-1844.00 on the NQ’s and 685.50-686.80 on the Russell could be good objectives for a nice positive day. Watch closely the E-mini Nasdaq as all the time that this index outperforms the SP”s the markets should be in a buy mode.

There is support below Friday’s settlements at 1236.75-1235.50 on the E-mini SP, 1813.75-1812.50 on the Nasdaq and 671.60-669.60 on the E-mini Russell. If the markets open strong amd selkl off reaching those areas, and those areas hold, then a rally to the highs could be seen, I will be a buyer at those levels with toght stps. But if those areas can not hold the selling pressure, then levels near Friday’s lows at 1231.75-1229.75 on the SP’s, 1805.50-1804.00 on the Nasdaq and 665.80-664.60 on the E-mini Russell wilol be tested again. Those areas will have to be defended by the bulls or the indexes will make new marginal lows at 1225.00-1223.00 on the SP’s, 1796.00-1794.00 on the Nasdaq and 661.70-661.00 on the Russell. If a very strong short covering rally does not start from a test of those levels, then the capitulation mode is still intact and nobody will want to catch a falling knife. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1248.50-1249.75 1836.50-1838.50 680.20-681.60
Resistance 3 1244.00-1245.50 1830.00-1831.75 676.90-678.00
Resistance 2 1236.00-1238.00 1818.00-1820.00 669.40-670.10
Resistance 1 1231.50-1232.50 1808.00-1810.00 664.90-666.00
PIVOT 1237.75 1816.50 668.70
Support 1 1225.00-1224.00 1797.50-1795.75 660.30-658.50
Support 2 1221.00-1219.75 1791.00-1789.50 655.00-653.40
Support 3 1215.50-1214.25 1782.00-1781.00 650.50-649.10
Support 4 1210.50-1208.50 1772.00-1771.25 644.10-643.00


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1318.34 1937.47 723.90
1309.91 1924.78 718.10
1296.25 1904.25 708.70
1282.59 1883.72 699.30
1274.16 1871.03 693.50
1260.50 1850.50 684.10
1246.84 1829.97 674.70
1242.63 1823.63 671.80
1238.41 1817.28 668.90
1224.75 1796.75 659.50
1211.09 1776.22 650.10
1202.66 1763.53 644.30
1189.00 1743.00 634.90
1175.34 1722.47 625.50
1166.91 1709.78 619.70



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1244.50 1826.50 673.40
AS DAILY LOW 1208.75 1772.75 648.80​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com[/QUOTE]

 

[arturo1]

Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 16-July-2008

Crude oil sell off, PPI higher than expected, Retail sales lower and Bernanke’s testimony resulted in another volatile session.

ECONOMIC DATA

8:30 AM CPI
8:30 AM Core CPI
9:15 AM Capacity Utilization
9:15 AM Industrial Production
10:30 AM Crude Inventories
2:00 PM FOMC Minutes

YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

Another wild session for the US markets. The E-mini SP opened sharply lower at 1215.50 just to get sold off strongly once the Bernanke’s testimony started, the index dropped to 1200.75 from where a strong short covering rally helped by a sharp fall on crude oil prices fueled the rebound. The E-mini Sp reached 1224.50, pulled back to the intraday support at 1212.00 and rallied back up to 1233.50 from where it pulled back to 1222.00. After trading in a sideways pattern for the next hour, the SP’s managed to break to new high reaching 1335.75 before another round of selling pushed prices down during the last hour of trading and in another sharp and fast sell off the Sp’s reached 1210.75. By the end of the session, the E-mini SP settled at 1211.50 losing 16.75 points, the E-mini Nasdaq closed almost unchanged at 1799.00, minus 3.50 points and the E-mini Russell lost 3.00 points, finishing at 659.60. The Dow closed bellow the 11000 mark at 10962, minus 92 points.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote:” A few sessions ago I mentioned the 1220.00 level on the E-mini SP as an objective for this leg down and from where we could see some kind of rebound that maybe last more than one session, but the extreme fear of more banks failure do not give the markets the conviction to move higher and under this scenario, the technical consolidations near the lows and the rejection of every rally attempt could result in another deep fall that could take the E-mini SP to the 1180.00 area before this leg down gets exhausted. However once the E-mini SP managed to get back above the previous low at 1237.00 on a close, then this downward rhythm will get broken and the indexes should be able to rally. It is not normal to see two trend days in a row, so I will expect for today’s session two ways action as both sides of the market could be tradable, and in a lower opening keep your eyes open from a reversal once the E-mini SP reaches levels below 1220.00.”

Well, 1237.00 proved to be the level that the Sp’s has to exceed in order to call a low and place the index in position where it can rally for a couple of weeks or start a multi week consolidation or side ways pattern. However this leg down has not been completed yet, and the possibility to see the indexes trade higher today or to consolidate between yesterday’s high or lows won’t be an indication that the worst is over, in fact, it will give the bears the chance to press the markets from a higher price until the 1180.00 area is reached. On the other hand if the markets sold off during today’s session, maybe the panic needed for this move to end will be seen and will place the markets in a situation to trade sideways for the upcoming weeks. So, the best that can happen is to see a panic selling so this capitulation move comes to and end.

For today’s session, there is the release of the CPI numbers and other economic reports before the market opens that should give traders an early indication for the first half of the session, later we’ll get the Crude oil inventories that if as yesterday’s push that commodity lower it could help the markets, but the main dish will be the release of the FOMC minutes later on the day. So, if the early data do not result in strong selling, I will expect the indexes to try and rally during the first half of the session, and later some profit taking before the FOMC minutes are out. Take into account that it is very difficult to see a sustainable rally, do try to stick with the intraday trend until resistance or support areas are reached and use the pivot point as a turning point for markets direction.

TODAY’S SESSION

There is initial resistance at 1218.00-1219.75 on the E-mini SP, 1805.00-1806.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 662.80-664.00 on the E-mini Russell. If the Sp’s won’t be able to break above those levels, expect yesterday’s low to get at least tested if not exceeded, but if the SP’s managed to break higher we could see a consolidation session as the indexes reach their next levels at 1222.50-1224.00 on the SP’s,1811.50-1812.50 on the Nasdaq and 669.10-669.50 on the Russell. The Russell should find strong resistance at these areas, so be ready for a reversal in that index if it fails there, but if the rally catch some momentum, then the next obstacles will be at 1230.75-1231.25 on the SP’s, 1818.00-1819.50 on the Nasdaq and 674.00-675.20 on the Russell. Keep a close eye on the Nasdaq as an indication for direction as the divergences between the indexes could continue.

There is support at 1208.50-1207.00 on the E-mini SP, 1792.50-1791.00 on the Nasdaq and 657.00-655.50 on the E-mini Russell. An early push that managed to hold those levels should result in a good short covering rally at least for 10-12 points on the SP’s. However, if those levels fail to hold, a move down near yesterdays lows at 1204.00-1202.50 on the SP’s, 1786.00-1785.00 on the Nasdaq and 651.80-650.50 on the Russell could be seen. Those areas may hold for a while, but be extremely careful if you get long there to tight your stops as trading bellow them will give the bears full control as the indexes trade lower to thir next support levels at 1196.75-1195.75 on the SP’s,1780.00-1779.00 on the Nasdaq and 646.20-645.70 on the Russell. If the markets don’t start a powerful rally from those areas, I won’t try to catch the falling knife until the 1180.00-1175.00 levels area reached on the SP’s. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1235.00-1236.50 1834.00-1836.00 680.10-681.50
Resistance 3 1230.75-1231.25 1818.00-1819.50 674.00-675.20
Resistance 2 1222.50-1224.00 1811.50-1812.50 669.10-669.50
Resistance 1 1218.00-1219.75 1805.00-1806.00 662.80-664.00
PIVOT 1216.00 1799.25 660.10
Support 1 1208.50-1207.00 1792.50-1791.00 657.00-655.50
Support 2 1204.00-1202.25 1786.00-1785.00 651.80-650.50
Support 3 1196.75-1195.75 1780.00-1779.00 646.20-645.70
Support 4 1192.00-1190.50 1771.00-1770.00 643.10-641.80


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1292.38 1943.93 720.29
1284.12 1927.82 713.61
1270.75 1901.75 702.80
1257.38 1875.68 691.99
1249.12 1859.57 685.31
1235.75 1833.50 674.50
1222.38 1807.43 663.69
1218.25 1799.38 660.35
1214.12 1791.32 657.01
1200.75 1765.25 646.20
1187.38 1739.18 635.39
1179.12 1723.07 628.71
1165.75 1697.00 617.90
1152.38 1670.93 607.09
1144.12 1654.82 600.41



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1223.50 1816.25 667.10
AS DAILY LOW 1188.50 1748.00 638.80​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com[/QUOTE][/QUOTE]

 

[arturo1]

Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 18-July-2008


Initial and Continuing claims lower than expected, Housing starts and Building permits higher than the previous month, JP Morgan “better than expected” earnings and another sell off on Crude Oil resulted in another positive session.

ECONOMIC DATA

None

July Option Expiration

YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

Markets rallied on strong earnings and better than expected economic data. US equity indexes opened the session with above their previous close. The E-mini SP started the day at 1252.00 and rallied to 1258.75, just below our 1259.00-1260.50 resistance area. Early weakness on the Nasdaq which failed to trade above the Globex highs resulted in a strong pullback that reached 1246.75 on the SP’s from where the index bounced back to 1253.00. A triple top on the 5 minutes period chart was resolved to the downside pushing the index to 1241.00 closing the opening gap. The SP’s reacted well to the lows and recovered to 1252.00. a second attempt to push the index lower held at 1245.25 and as Crude oil traded below $133.00 per barrel all the indexes rallied strong with the SP’s reaching the short term KEY RESISTANCE area at 1263.00 and the NQ’s testing our resistance levels at 1868.00-1869.25. Unable to continue with the upside trend, the SP’s get sold and the index fell once more to the 1252.00 area. Another short covering managed to test back the 1261.00 level from where the SP’s fell down into the close closing below fair value. At the end of the day, the E-mini SP closed at 1253.50 gaining 12.50 points, the E-mini Nasdaq plunge 30 points during the last 15 minutes of the session after Google earnings were announced closing at 1839.75, minus 5 points and the E-mini Russell finished at 692.60, up 6.80 points. The Dow closed with solid gains at 11446, up 207 points for the session.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote:” The powerful rally seen during yesterday’s session has placed the indexes in a position where a move to the next levels could be seen, that is, first the 1260.00 area on the E-mini SP and later the important 1270.00-1273.00 where I suspect the rally will fail and the downtrend will resume.”

After yesterday’s upside continuing pattern that failed to hold after the cash markets closed, the futures indexes look like they already exhausted the countertrend move once the E-mini SP and Nasdaq reached our fourth level resistance areas and failed into the close. However more action between the 1230.00 and 1260.00 areas could be seen during the coming sessions until a clear breakout occurs. If yesterday’s highs are not exceeded then the indexes will resume their strong downtrend that should reach new lows during the next 10 day. However if yesterday’s highs get violated, then the indexes have a chance to continue to move up for the next 10-14 day. Personally, I don’t like to trade during option expiration days but I will favor the short side all the time that yesterday’s highs are not exceeded. Keep a close eye on the crude oil as a bounce on that contract after three consecutive session where it was sold off strongly could trigger additional selling on the equity indexes.


TODAY’S SESSION

There is initial resistance at 1254.50-1256.00 on the E-mini SP, 1843.50-1846.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 694.00-695.40 on the E-mini Russell. If the indexes manage to get back there in what it looks to be a lower opening and the rally stalls there look to get short for a trip back to the low 40’s on the SP’s. But if those levels get exceeded, then a test of yesterday’s highs at 1259.75-1261.00 on the Sp’s, 1849.00-1852.00 on the NQ’s and 698.00-699.20 on the Russell could be seen. Only if the shorts will get squeezed for the option expiration those areas will get punched, and if that happens then a pop to the next point at 1265.001267.00 on the SP’s, 1859.00-1861.00 on the NQ’s nad 701.70-703.00 on the Russell will be seen before the session is over.


There is support at 1248.75-1246.75 on the E-mini SP, 1837.00-1835.00 on the Nasdaq and 689.80-688.40 on the E-mini Russell. At the moment that I am writing my report the indexes are already trading below those levels, so if they fail to bounce back and break above our pivot points we could have an early indication of weakness through the session. If that happens, there is good support at 1240.00-1239.00 on the SP’s, 1829.00-1827.00 on the Nasdaq and 684.30-683.40 on the Russell. Holding there will give the SP’s the chance to close near the 1250.00 level on this expiration day, but failing to hold there will drive the indexes down to their next support areas at 1334.74-1333.00 on the SP’s, 1820.00-1818.50 on the Nasdaq and 680.10-678.50 on the Russell and probably the settlement for the options on the SP’s will be around the 1230.00 area. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1269.75-1271.00 1869.25-1871.00 706.00-707.20
Resistance 3 1265.00-1267.00 1859.00-1861.00 701.70-703.00
Resistance 2 1259.75-1261.00 1849.00-1852.00 698.00-699.20
Resistance 1 1254.50-1256.00 1843.50-1846.00 694.00-695.40
PIVOT 1251.50 1847.00 690.80
Support 1 1248.75-1246.75 1837.00-1835.00 689.80-688.40
Support 2 1240.00-1239.00 1829.00-1827.00 684.30-683.40
Support 3 1234.75-1233.00 1820.00-1818.50 680.10-678.50
Support 4 1229.50-1227.75 1812.00-1811.00 675.70-674.60


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1303.45 1925.94 721.83
1297.55 1917.56 718.27
1288.00 1904.00 712.50
1278.45 1890.44 706.73
1272.55 1882.06 703.17
1263.00 1868.50 697.40
1253.45 1854.94 691.63
1250.50 1850.75 689.85
1247.55 1846.56 688.07
1238.00 1833.00 682.30
1228.45 1819.44 676.53
1222.55 1811.06 672.97
1213.00 1797.50 667.20
1203.45 1783.94 661.43
1197.55 1775.56 657.87



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1270.75 1854.75 702.60
AS DAILY LOW 1245.75 1818.25 687.50​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com[/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE]

 

[arturo1]

Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 21-July-2008

A mixed session for the US markets with Citicorp better than expected earnings report, Google and Microsoft disappointing profits and lower Crude oil prices as the July option expiration was a non event.

WEEKLY PIVOTS FOR WEEK ENDING 25-July-2008

R3 1304.00
R2 1282.50
R1 1266.25
PP 1241.50
S1 1226.25
S2 1205.50
S3 1179.00


ECONOMIC DATA
10:00 AM Leading Indicators


WEEKLY RECAP

A positive week for the US markets after a rough starting. Monday’s positive opening after the released news that the Fed will allow Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to borrow direct from the Central bank and in this way guarantee that they won’t fail, was reversed as investors continued to sell the financial sectors. The daily highs were made during the first hour of the session and the indexes traded down during the day, by the end, the E-mini SP lost 11.50 points closing at 1228.25, the E-mini Nasdaq settled at 1802.50, minus 18 points and the E-mini Russell ended at 662.60 losing 11.00 points for the day. The Dow ended lower by 45 points finishing the session at 11055. Tuesday was a rollercoaster day with the equity indexes testing their lowest levels in the last years. Lack of confidence on the financial and mortgage sectors, new record lows for the US dollar and PPI indicating higher inflation and Bernanke’s testimony drove markets sharply lower despite the sell off on Crude oil. The trading session ended once more in the red with the SP’s closing at 1211.50 losing 16.75 points, the Nasdaq holding almost unchanged at 1799.00 and the E-mini Russell giving back 3.00 points, finishing at 659.60. The Dow closed bellow the 11000 mark at 10962, minus 92 points. Wednesday’s saw the markets turning up after a slightly positive opening once Wells Fargo earnings were released. CPI jumped by 1.1% during June and oil continued to sell off. The positive turn around came after the SEC stepped in saying that it will try to limit the “naked” short selling of shares in Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the major brokerage firms. A huge rebound in the financial sectors as traders ran to cover their short positions resulted in a very strong session with the equity indexes adding more than 2% during the day. The E-mini SP closed at 1241.00, plus 29.50 points for the day, the Nasdaq at 1855.75 with a gain of 45.75 points and the E-mini Russell ended the day at 684.80, up 25.20 points. The Dow exploded 276 points finishing the day at 11239. The positive sentiment continued into Thursday’s session as Initial and Continuing claims came out better than expected and JP Morgan reported better than expected numbers. The continued sell off in the commodity sectors added more fuel to the rally in the stock markets. The indexes rallied strong but the futures were sold after the cash indexes closed as a consequence of disappointing earnings from Google and Microsoft, however the close was positive with the E-mini SP gaining 12.50 points at 1253.50, the E-mini Nasdaq closing at 1839.75, minus 5 points and the E-mini Russell finishing the session at 692.60, up 6.80 points. The Dow closed with solid gains at 11446, up 207 points for the session. Friday was a non event as the market saw the July option expiration; the volumes were surprisingly lows and the indexes moved in a tight range after a weaker Globex session. The nightly reverse came after Citicorp reported lower loses and the Crude oil closed below the $130.00 level indicating the possibility of a second correction on its price, however the techs were under pressure during the session. The E-mini SP ended the week at 1260.50 adding 7.00 points for the day, the E-mini Nasdaq lost 11.00 points at 1828.75 and the E-mini Russell lost 1.90 points closing at 690.70. The Dow ended higher by 50 points at 11496 with a weekly advance of 3.6%.


FRIDAY’S MARKETS

A quite session for the US equity indexes. After making the daily lows during the Globex session at 1241.00 the E-mini SP opened stronger after Citicorp earnings were released. The SP started the session at 1262.00 where sellers took advantage of the higher opening and pushed the index down helped by the weakness on the tech sector. The E-mini SP fell to 1252.50 where a double bottom held nicely twice. The index bounced back to 1257.50 where the short covering rally lost its steam. The index moved once more lower but unable to break the previous lows bounced back strongly and once it broke the 1257.50 level it went for another test of the early highs. The SP reached the previous day high at 1263.00 before it sold off pushing to new intraday lows at 1251.50. Once more buyers stepped in and the SP’s bounced joined by the Dow, the index reached 1259.50, pulled back to 1253.50 and moved to the daily highs during the last hour of the session. The SP’s got to 1261.50 and closed positive for the session. For the day, the E-mini SP gained 7.00 points, finishing strong the week at 1260.50, the lagging Nasdaq gave back 11 points at 1828.75 and the Russell settled at 690.70 after failing at the 700.00 zone. The Dow continued to add gains to its weekly rally finishing the session just below the 11500 mark.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Last Friday I wrote:” After yesterday’s upside continuing pattern that failed to hold after the cash markets closed, the futures indexes look like they already exhausted the countertrend move once the E-mini SP and Nasdaq reached our fourth level resistance areas and failed into the close. However more action between the 1230.00 and 1260.00 areas could be seen during the coming sessions until a clear breakout occurs. If yesterday’s highs are not exceeded then the indexes will resume their strong downtrend that should reach new lows during the next 10 day. However if yesterday’s highs get violated, then the indexes have a chance to continue to move up for the next 10-14 day.”

Friday’s consolidation session on an option expiration day it’s not the best indication of what could be seen during the following sessions. The mixed market and the weakness on the E-mini Nasdaq could be and early sign lower prices during the upcoming days, but the huge manipulation with the new SEC rules against the naked shorts of some financial stocks could create some initial confusion between traders for this Monday. The 1262.50-1264.00 area on the SP’s is a key resistance area on that index, and if exceeded could boost that index to its next level near the 1300.00 area. However failure to move higher could indicate more consolidation or another visit to the lows and perhaps a new low before a good rally, as the one seen from March to May could happen. Last week when the lows were done, I wrote that I don’t believe in double bottoms as a way to end a bear campaign, but the second test was done with increased fear, and as a matter of fact my opinion is not important for the markets action. On my Friday’s commentaries I quoted that the rally could continue for the next 10-14 days and, but if that won’t happen, today, or last Friday, the highs were done. So, I will watch carefully the opening and use Friday’s settlements as the best indicator for market direction, if Friday’s high its not the high, then the indexes should continue to move higher with strength and without any divergences between them during today’s session, and reach at least the 1270.00 area on the E-mini SP. If the indexes fail to move higher more consolidation should be seen before another wide range down day.

For today’s trading session I will look to maintain a positive bias as long as Friday’s lows are intact, 1252.00-1251.00 on the E-mini SP offered strong support during the past session and should continue to do it if the indexes will keep moving higher in this countertrend move. If the upside breaks do not happen look for more sideways action until the next breakout occurs, and of curse watch closely the Nasdaq as continued weakness on that index should be carried to the other markets. Don’t fight the tend if all the indexes are moving higher after the first hour of trading.


TODAY’S SESSION

There is KEY resistance just above Friday’s highs and settlement at 1262.50-1264.00 on the E-mini SP, 1834.00-1836.25 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 692.20-693.40 on the E-mini Russell. If the Nasdaq is leading the way to the upside expect the next levels to be tested at 1266.00-1267.25 on the SP’s, 1839.00-1840.00 on the Nasdaq and 695.20-695.80 on the Russell. If the rally fails there, a good short could be trigger, in particular if the Nasdaq and Russell have troubles to break higher, but if those two indexes join the upside move expect the SP’s to keep recovering and the indexes to reach their next levels at 1269.00-1270.50 on the SP’s, 1845.00-1846.50 on the Nasdaq and 698.80-700.60 on the Russell. Breaking above those levels will clearly indicate higher prices for the upcoming sessions.

There is support at 1256.50-1254.50 on the E-mini SP, 1825.50-1824.00 on the Nasdaq and689.40-688.00 on the E-mini Russell. If the markets open below those areas it may be that the countertrend move has ended. If that happens then the next support levels are at 1251.00-1249.75 on the Sp’s, 1819.50-1818.00 on the NQ’s and 685.70-684.50 on the Russell. Those held very nice during Friday’s session and were pivotal on the SP’s. However if those areas can not hold, then I assume that the countertrend move has ended and the indexes will reverse last week rally, with a confirmation once the break the next support areas at 1246.50-1241.75 on the SP’s, 1814.00-1812.00 on the Nasdaq and 682.10-681.10. Getting there probably will force the SP to a test of last Friday globex lows aaroiund the 1240.00’s levels. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1273.75-1275.50 1854.00-1856.00 705.60-706.90
Resistance 3 1269.00-1270.50 1845.00-1846.50 698.80-700.60
Resistance 2 1266.00-1267.25 1839.00-1840.00 695.20-695.80
Resistance 1 1262.50-1264.00 1834.00-1836.25 692.20-693.40
PIVOT 1254.75 1832.00 692.00
Support 1 1256.50-1254.50 1825.50-1824.00 689.40-688.00
Support 2 1251.00-1249.75 1819.50-1818.00 685.70-684.50
Support 3 1246.50-1245.50 1814.00-1812.50 682.10-681.00
Support 4 1243.00-1241.75 1803.00-1801.25 677.20-675.80


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1298.60 1895.83 724.08
1293.40 1888.92 720.62
1285.00 1877.75 715.00
1276.60 1866.58 709.38
1271.40 1859.67 705.92
1263.00 1848.50 700.30
1254.60 1837.33 694.68
1252.00 1833.88 692.95
1249.40 1830.42 691.22
1241.00 1819.25 685.60
1232.60 1808.08 679.98
1227.40 1801.17 676.52
1219.00 1790.00 670.90
1210.60 1778.83 665.28
1205.40 1771.92 661.82



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1272.75 1838.50 702.90
AS DAILY LOW 1250.75 1809.25 688.20​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com[/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE]

 

[arturo1]

Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 22-July-2008

Bank of America better than expected earnings and Icahn joining Yahoo board resulted in a quite session.
The markets are down after hours as American Express disappointed and Apple reduced guidance for the next quarter.

ECONOMIC DATA

8:55 AM Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

A boring session as the summer doldrums keeps volumes on the light side. After opening on a positive tone at 1265.00, the E-mini SP pulled back mildly testing the 1263.50 area. The initial action drove the Sp’s to 1267.50 from where the index pulled back to the 1265.50 area. Buyers stepped in at the opening range and the index rallied to its daily highs at 1268.00 while the E-mini Nasdaq reached 1845.00 from where the pullback started. Another pullback to the 1262.50 area was met with some buying and the SP’s rallied printing a lower high on the intraday charts at 1266.75. The failure to trade higher and the weakness on the E-mini Nasdaq drove the SP’s to 1261.00. After trading in a sideways pattern, the indexes finally broke to the downside making new lows for the session but holding the support levels, the E-mini SP reached 1256.00 and the NQ’s tested 1813.25 bouncing nicely for the next hour, the Sp’s pushed up to 1262.75 and traded once more on a sideways pattern between 1263.50 and 1259.50 while the E-mini Russell tested its daily highs around the 697.00 level. After failing to break above the 1264.00 area, the SP’s pushed down to a new intraday low at 1255.00 but bounced back into the end. For the session, the E-mini SP added 1 point closing at 1261.50, the E-mini Nasdaq lost 1.25 finishing the session at 1827.50 and the E-mini Russell which showed strength during all the session added 8.70 points closing at 699.40. The Dow lost 29 points and settled at 11467.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote:” The mixed market and the weakness on the E-mini Nasdaq could be and early sign lower prices during the upcoming days, but the huge manipulation with the new SEC rules against the naked shorts of some financial stocks could create some initial confusion between traders for this Monday. The 1262.50-1264.00 area on the SP’s is a key resistance area on that index, and if exceeded could boost that index to its next level near the 1300.00 area. For today’s trading session I will look to maintain a positive bias as long as Friday’s lows are intact, 1252.00-1251.00 on the E-mini SP offered strong support during the past session and should continue to do it if the indexes will keep moving higher in this countertrend move. If the upside breaks do not happen look for more sideways action until the next breakout occurs, and of curse watch closely the Nasdaq as continued weakness on that index should be carried to the other markets.”

Yesterday low volume and narrow range trading action is something normal after last week huge rally from the lows, but the divergences between the indexes are not a positive indication for the bulls. That does not mean that yesterday’s trading session has placed the indexes on a weak position but the markets do not look out of troubles. If the rally that took the SP’s from the 1200.00’s area to yesterday’s 1268.00 intraday high has already ended, today’s session could be a wide range downside session. However, more sideways action could be seen between the 1268.00 area and the 1241.00 last Friday Globex low until a clear breakout occurs. If the next move on the daily charts will be the wide range down day this rally could be considered ended and the indexes will test last week lows or make their way for new lows.

For today’s session, the indexes are trading lower during the night and now that I am writing my report it looks like they will open negative, but it seems that the 1250.00 area on the SP’s will try to hold. So, if that level can resist the initial selling pressure, look for some rebound that could bring that index back near the pivot point where a good shorting opportunity could be trigger. There is not any important economic news to be released during today’s session, so earning reports will guide the trading session.


TODAY’S SESSION

There is resistance at 1264.00-1265.25 on the E-mini SP, 1832.00-1833.50 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 702.60-703.40 on the E-mini Russell. Those areas on the Sp’s acted like very strong resistance during yesterday’s session, so for this rally to continue they will have to get exceeded, if that happens the next resistance levels are at 1268.50-1269.25 on the SP’s, 1837.00-1838.25 on the Nasdaq and 706.00-707.30 on the Russell. If the indexes area strong then a test of the next upside objective at 1271.75-1273.50 on the Sp’s, 1843.00-1844.75 on the Nasdaq and 710.20-711.90 on the Russell could be seen.

There is support at 1259.00-1257.50 on the E-mini SP, 1818.00-1816.50 on the Nasdaq and 697.30-696.20 on the E-mini Russell. As the indexes probably will open below those levels, they should act as good resistance, in particular on the E-mini Nasdaq. That is the same situation for the next support levels at 1254.50-1253.50 on the SP’s, 1812.00-1810.00 on the Nasdaq and 693.10-691.90 on the Russell. Those levels are critical if the indexes open below them, failure to trade back above them will indicate a test of the 1241.00 level on the SP’s, so if that index fails there, tight your seat belts because once the Sp’s trade below 1249.00-1248.00, the Nasdaq below 1800.00-1798.00 and the Russell below the 685.70-684.30 areas the way for a strong sell off will be open. But keep in mind that a good reaction rally could start at those areas. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1275.75-1278.50 1848.00-1849.50 714.90-716.50
Resistance 3 1271.75-1273.50 1843.00-1844.75 710.20-711.90
Resistance 2 1268.50-1269.25 1837.00-1838.25 706.00-707.30
Resistance 1 1264.00-1265.25 1832.00-1833.50 702.60-703.40
PIVOT 1261.75 1828.50 695.80
Support 1 1259.00-1257.50 1818.00-1816.50 697.30-696.20
Support 2 1254.50-1253.50 1812.00-1810.00 693.10-691.90
Support 3 1249.00-1248.00 1800.00-1798.00 685.70-684.30
Support 4 1243.00-1241.50 1792.00-1790.00 681.00-680.20


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1291.65 1896.37 718.41
1288.35 1888.88 715.69
1283.00 1876.75 711.30
1277.65 1864.62 706.91
1274.35 1857.13 704.19
1269.00 1845.00 699.80
1263.65 1832.87 695.41
1262.00 1829.13 694.05
1260.35 1825.38 692.69
1255.00 1813.25 688.30
1249.65 1801.12 683.91
1246.35 1793.63 681.19
1241.00 1781.50 676.80
1235.65 1769.37 672.41
1232.35 1761.88 669.69



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1272.25 1836.25 705.40
AS DAILY LOW 1258.25 1804.50 693.90​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com[/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE]

 

[arturo1]

Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 24-July-2008


Bank of America stock buyback, approved aid for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and lower Crude oil prices gave the equity indexes another positive session despite weakness on the economy.


ECONOMIC DATA
8:30 AM Initial Claims
10:00 AM Existing Home Sales

YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

After opening at the 1278.00 area, the E-mini SP pulled back forming a double bottom at 1275.50 where buyers stepped in “and pushed the SP’s to 1281.00 a mildly setback to the 1277.00 area where “ all together” bided the market strongly pushing prices up to 1291.25 on the E=mini SP and 1870.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq where the rally lost its steam and pulled back to our updated support at 1282.50 on the SP’s. The index held nicely and rallied to the 1287.00 area before pulling back once more to the early blows at 1277.00. Waiting for the release of the Fed’s Beige book the SP’s traded on a sideway pattern between 1277.00-and 1284.50. Once the economic news was out the E-mini SP tried to push higher founding resistance at 1286.00 from where it pulled back once more to the 1280.00 level. Just after the broad market closed, the indexes bounced a bit. For the day, the E-mini SP added another 8.25 points and settled at 1282.50, the E-mini Nasdaq rallied 25.00 points ending the session at 1849.00 and the E-mini Russell gained 4.10 points at 721.20. The Dow closed at 11632, plus 30 points for the session.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote:”Well, yesterday’s weak opening was completely reversed and after trading sideways for most of the session, the breakout happened. The late strong rally after the early short lived sell off should be seen as a bullish surprise, regardless of all the bad news that seems to be out there. I have written that the current divergences between the indexes are not the best indicator for the markets to continue and move up to their next levels but I have to recognize that support on the SP’s has been acting during this week at very high levels during the regular trading sessions, and of curse, lower prices on the crude oil has contributed to hold the recent gains. So, I won’t be surprise if I see this move to trade higher. Take into account that if this rally is due to continues the first decent pullback should be a buying opportunity.”

After yesterday’s strong wave of buying that drove the indexes to their best levels after the last correction, the intraday reversal indicates that we could be close to a down correction. It seems that another strong opening that fails to break above yesterday’s highs that reached the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the May highs to the July lows on the E-mini SP and the Dow may pull the breaks on this rally and drove prices down at least to the 1240.00 level on the SP’s. However, if yesterday’s highs get exceeded more strength could be seen in the short term. I have been long term bearish, nut I have to recognize that the time cycle and the extension of this rally could eliminate the capitulation low that I was looking for. However, the indexes should see some pullback, maybe to the 1240.00 area that I just mentioned and then enter a slightly bullish sideways trend.

For today’s trading session, yesterday’s highs, if reached look as a good objective to enter short with tight stops, as once the indexes break above them, more short covering that takes the SP’s to the 1300.00 area could be seen. On the other side of the coin, The SP showed very strong support at 1277.50 during yesterday’s last hour of trading, so nothing bad happens all the time that the index keeps holding that level.



TODAY’S SESSION

There is at yesterday’s late highs at 1284.50-1285.50 on the E-mini SP, 1855.00-1857.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 722.40-723.60 on the E-mini Russell. Those will have to get exceeded if the markets will go for yesterday’s highs, if that happens and the indexes reach their next levels at 1287.75-1288.50 on the SP’s, 1862.00-1863.50 on the Nasdaq and 725.80-727.60 be ready for a failure as a lower high could be printed on the daily charts. However if the indexes will continue with this countertrend rally, then the next areas around yesterday’s early highs at 1291.75-1293.00 on the SP’s , 1872.00-1874.00 on the Nasdaq and 729.50-730.80 on the Russell will be reached in the way for higher prices. If the SP break above those levels beware of any shorts as the objective will be around the 1300.00 area.


There is strong support at 1279.00-1277.50 on the E-mini SP, 1844.50-1842.00 on the Nasdaq and 718.80-717.50on the E-mini Russell. Nothing bad happens all the time that the indexes hold above those levels, as the worst case could be a consolidation session between these levels and yesterday’s high, but if the indexes press lower look for a test of 1273.25-1272.00 on the SP’s, 1836.00-1834.00 on the Nasdaq and 714.30-713,.90 on the Russell. If the markets will continue to move higher a pull\back there should be met with buying interest, but if those areas fail to hold, the trend could be changing and the indexes may drop to their next support areas at 1266.00-1264.50 on the SP’s,1824.50-1822.00 on the Nasdaq and 707.40.-705.60 on the Russell. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1300.25-1301.50 1885.00-1887.00 733.80-735.20
Resistance 3 1291.75-1293.00 1872.00-1874.00 729.50-730.80
Resistance 2 1287.75-1288.50 1862.00-1863.50 725.80-727.60
Resistance 1 1284.50-1285.50 1855.00-1857.00 722.40-723.60
PIVOT 1282.25 1847.00 720.70
Support 1 1279.00-1277.50 1844.50-1842.00 718.80-717.50
Support 2 1273.25-1272.00 1836.00-1834.00 714.30-713.90
Support 3 1266.00-1264.50 1824.50-1822.00 707.40-705.60
Support 4 1254.75-1254.00 1809.00-1808.00 702.00-700.60


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1321.18 1947.91 748.62
1316.82 1936.59 745.48
1309.75 1918.25 740.40
1302.68 1899.91 735.32
1298.32 1888.59 732.18
1291.25 1870.25 727.10
1284.18 1851.91 722.02
1282.00 1846.25 720.45
1279.82 1840.59 718.88
1272.75 1822.25 713.80
1265.68 1803.91 708.72
1261.32 1792.59 705.58
1254.25 1774.25 700.50
1247.18 1755.91 695.42
1242.82 1744.59 692.28



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1296.50 1883.50 730.80
AS DAILY LOW 1260.75 1835.00 717.50​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

 

[arturo1]

Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 30-July-2008



Merrill capital raising, Consumer Confidence at 51.9, lower crude oil prices and the Fed extending restrictions on short selling resulted in a massive rally.

ECONOMIC DATA


8:15 AM ADP Employment
10:35 AM Crude Inventories

YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

Market rallies strong on speculations that the worst may be over for the financial sector. A huge reversal from the previous day sells off for all the equity indexes. The E-mini SP opened above its previous settlement at 1238.50 and held during the first minutes of the session above the opening prices. Just before the release of the Consumer Confidence data, the indexes started a strong uptrend leaded by the E-mini Nasdaq. The E-mini SP traded above our pivotal 1242.25 and never looked back. The SP’s reached 1248.00 while the E-mini Nasdaq made it all the way to its daily high at 1855.50. After trading in a narrow range for the next hour and despite the lagging Nasdaq the E-mini Sp finally broke above the 1251.00 level with strong momentum and reached the next resistance level at 1257.50. The index pulled back to test the 1250.00 area and rallied strong into the end of the session closing at the highs. For the session, the E-mini SP added 26.75 points and settled at 1261.75, the E-mini Nasdaq up by 28.25 at 1842 and thee-mini Russell gained 16.70 points finishing the session at 713.60. The Dow had a strong session with a 266 points advance finishing the session at 12397.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Last Friday I wrote:” Yesterday’s sell off, with no volumes and without any panic, may show a rebound during today’s trading session, but only, when the SP’s manage to close back above the 1260.00 level, then the indexes will be considered on a neutral position. The fact that the E-mini Sp closed yesterday below the obvious 1240.00 support area could result during today’s session on a rally that make its attempt to get back above that critical support. For today’s session, I will expect some consolidation from yesterday’s move, but I will be extremely careful with any long position all the time that the SP’s keep trading below my 1242.50 pivot point, and if they break above it and I get long I will keep a tight stop around the 1239.00 level. On a strong upside move that lost momentum above the pivot point, I will go short once the index breaks down below that area.

Well, once the index traded above the pivotal 1242.25 the way was only up, and with so much strength that reached the critical 1260.00 area and even managed to close above it despite the weakening Nasdaq. Yesterday’s rally has placed the market on a strong position and if the rally continues into today’s session, chances are that higher prices will be sustainable until the end of the week, and if the unemployment number4s come out in line, we can be visiting the highs of the current range, 1200.00 to 1290.00. The indexes have been shifting from a very negative single session to huge rises during the next one, all of this with an apparent bullish sentiment, but at the end failing to sustain their advance. All this makes complicated to predict a multi day move, as none of the recent huge reversals have been able to create the momentum to break out of the recent ranges. The SP’s and the Dow have formed a triangle consolidation, that when it gets resolved it will result in a huge move. The Nasdaq has been range bounded and probably will continue to move between the recent high and lows.

For today, as crude oil prices have been affecting directly the market direction, and, today we’ll get the weekly inventories, keep in mind that a positive surprise that press prices lower could boost the equity indexes and give some continuation to yesterday’s rally coinciding with the traditional end of month bullish bias. However, it will be unusual to see another trend day, so both sides of the range could offer trading opportunities, sell high and buy low maintaining a slightly bullish bias. .

TODAY’S SESSION

There is resistance at 1264.50-1265.75 on the E-mini SP, 1846.50-1848.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 715.50-717.00 on the E-mini Russell. Those should be exceeded if yesterday’s rally is due to continue during today and maybe tomorrow’s session, if that happens the next levels at 1269.00-1270.50 on the SP’s, 1855.50-1857.00 on the Nasdaq and 719.80-721.50 may be reached and probably offer a good shorting opportunity if the rally lose its momentum at those areas. But if the markets will have another strong session, then look for strong resistance at 1273.00-1274.25 on the SP’s and 1863.00-1864.50 and 725.30-727.00 on the Nasdaq and Russell respectively.

There is support at 1258.75-1257.75 on the E-mini SP, 1837.50-1835.50 on the Nasdaq and 712.00-710.90 on the E-mini Russell. If the pullback holds there, a bounce that carries the indexes to our second resistance levels looks probably. But if sellers press harder, then the indexes should be able to test 1255.00-1253.50 on the SP’s, 1828.50-1827.00 on the Nasdaq and 707.80-706.50 on the Russell. If buyers don’t bid strong those areas, then 1249.00-1247.50 on the SP’s 1806.00-1804.00 on the Nasdaq and 701.70-701.20 should be able to hold. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1278.00-1279.25 1869.50-1871.00 729.30-730.20
Resistance 3 1273.00-1274.75 1863.00-1864.50 725.30-727.00
Resistance 2 1269.00-1270.50 1855.50-1857.00 719.80-721.50
Resistance 1 1264.50-1265.75 1846.50-1848.00 715.50-717.00
PIVOT 1252.00 1834.50 708.10
Support 1 1258.75-1257.75 1837.50-1835.50 712.00-710.90
Support 2 1255.00-1253.50 1828.50-1827.00 707.80-706.50
Support 3 1249.00-1247.50 1814.50-1813.00 701.70-701.20
Support 4 1243.50-1241.75 1806.00-1804.00 699.00-697.70


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1314.62 1934.78 750.30
1307.13 1923.22 745.30
1295.00 1904.50 737.20
1282.87 1885.78 729.10
1275.38 1874.22 724.10
1263.25 1855.50 716.00
1251.12 1836.78 707.90
1247.38 1831.00 705.40
1243.63 1825.22 702.90
1231.50 1806.50 694.80
1219.37 1787.78 686.70
1211.88 1776.22 681.70
1199.75 1757.50 673.60
1187.62 1738.78 665.50
1180.13 1727.22 660.50



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1278.25 1873.25 725.40
AS DAILY LOW 1246.50 1824.25 704.20​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com[/QUOTE]

 

[arturo1]

Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 1st-August-2008


GDP up 1.9%, Initial and Continuing claims higher than expected resulted in a volatile session with big loses on the big caps.


ECONOMIC DATA


8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls
8:30 AM Unemployment Rate
8:30 AM Hourly Earnings
8:30 AM Average Workweek
10:00 AM Construction Spending
10:00 AM ISM Index
12:00 AM Auto Sales
12:00 AM Truck sales


YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

A strong nightly session for the US equity indexes get reversed once the economic data got released. After reaching 1290.00 on the E-mini SP before the markets kicked off, the SP’s fell into negative territory starting the day at 1273.00 where buyers stepped in and pushed the markets higher leaded by Nasdaq that reached 1878.25 while the E-mini SP tested the 1284.50 level. Once the rally lost its momentum, the different markets pulled, the SP’s pushed lower making a new intraday low at 1271.00. once more the indexes bounced, the Sp’s reached 1279.00, pulled back to 1274.50 and rallied to 1281.00 where a late sell off started just one hour before the close. The E-mini SP pushed down strongly breaking the early lows reaching 1265.00 while the Nasdaq maintained its relative strength. At the end of the day, the E-mini SP lost 17.75 points and settled at 1267.00, the E-mini Nasdaq finished the session almost unchanged at 1853.75 and the E-mini Russell gave back 3.30 points closing at 715.50. The Dow sold off strongly losing 205 points and settled at 11378.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote: “The end of month bullish scenario and the already overextended move may be coming to and end and probably, a reversal is around the corner. It will be a surprise for me to see the SP’s breaking above the last high at 1290.00 by more that 3 points, however, if that happens, there are chances that the rally will extend to 1320.00 where an open gap from late June is waiting to get filled. The markets continue to show a bullish pattern, and the economic data, to get released between today and tomorrow could push the markets higher. However the complacency seems to keep traders buying the recent deeps and we could see, if not today, tomorrow, a huge reversal with prices trading once more below the 1260.00 pivotal level. For today’s session, if the economic data comes out as expected, markets should see early strength, and then lose their momentum showing some profit taking in front of tomorrow’s unemployment data. So wait for the initial rally to stall and try to get short near the highs after the first hour of trading.”

The early rally that took prices during the Globex session just to 1290.00 has left many longs trapped at higher prices, and, if the E-mini SP will break below the 1260.00 area, will indicate a probable test of the 1180.00 level, which should be “the low” for the upcoming months and from where a 160 points rally or a long term sideways pattern that hold the SP’s between 1200-1300 for 90—120 days could be seen. However, in this business of probabilities we can not discard the scenario that the indexes already saw the lows for the current leg down and higher prices may come before another strong downside move. It seems that until the recent highs are exceeded for the SP’s and Dow, the indexes will continue to build a triangle pattern that later will get resolved with a very strong move. The Nasdaq has maintained during the last month a trading range, that looks closer to an upside break despite yesterday’s rejection from the top of the range.

Today’s session is full of economic reports, before and after the opening, so everything can happen. As on every month, the first and second day, usually shows some upside bias, and if that happens, I don’t think it will be sustainable or higher than yesterday’s late highs around the 1280.00’s on the SP’s. So with the all important job report to get released before the opening, give the markets chance to digest the initial emotional moves and then trade against resistance and support keeping the bias that our pivot point provides, be a buyer above it, and a seller bellow it, but don’t overstay on your positions as yesterday’s move could show some consolidation, only if the SP’s trade below the 1260.00 level a chance of bloody Friday will be present.


TODAY’S SESSION

There is initial resistance at 1271.50-1273.00 on the E-mini SP, 1849.50-1848.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 717.90-719.20 on the E-mini Russell. Markets should be optimistic if those levels get exceeded, and an opening above them has the chances to reach 1277.75-1278.50 on the SP’s, 1867.50-1869.00 on the Nasdaq and 722.00-722.80 on the Russell. If the indexes fail there, get ready to enter short with tight stops. If finally the Nasdaq and Russell are on their way to break out of the last ranges, then some short covering should be able to press higher and get to 1281.75-1283.25 on the SP’s,1877.50-1879.00 on the Nasdaq and 728.50-729.70 on the Russell. If the rally stalls there, a great shorting opportunity, in particular on the Russell could result in selling the top for that index.

There is support just below yesterday’s lows at 1264.75-1263.00 on the E-mini SP, 1852.25-1850.00 on the Nasdaq and 713.10-711.80 on the E-mini Russell. If the market opens below those levels, the most probable scenario is that they won’t find support until the next areas at 1260.00-1258.00 on the SP’s, 1843.00-1841.00 on the Nasdaq and 708.70-707.90 on the Russell get tested. If those do not hold the selling pressure, we could see some fear that drives the indexes back down to 1253.25-1251.75 on the SP’s, 1832.75-1831.25 on the Nasdaq and 704.80-703.50 on the Russell. If buyers don’t bid strong those levels and drive the SP’s back up to the KEY 1260.00 level, then much lower prices could be seen during the coming sessions. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1290.00-1291.50 1886.00-1888.00 733.90-735.00
Resistance 3 1281.75-1283.25 1877.50-1879.00 728.50-729.70
Resistance 2 1277.75-1278.50 1867.50-1869.00 722.00-722.80
Resistance 1 1271.50-1273.00 1862.00-1863.50 717.90-719.20
PIVOT 1274.00 1855.00 715.10
Support 1 1264.75-1263.00 1849.50-1848.00 713.10-711.80
Support 2 1260.00-1258.00 1843.00-1841.00 708.70-707.90
Support 3 1253.25-1251.75 1832.75-1831.25 704.80-703.50
Support 4 1248.50-1247.00 1825.75-1824.00 701.10-700.20


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1330.45 1953.58 743.12
1324.55 1942.67 739.98
1315.00 1925.00 734.90
1305.45 1907.33 729.82
1299.55 1896.42 726.68
1290.00 1878.75 721.60
1280.45 1861.08 716.52
1277.50 1855.63 714.95
1274.55 1850.17 713.38
1265.00 1832.50 708.30
1255.45 1814.83 703.22
1249.55 1803.92 700.08
1240.00 1786.25 695.00
1230.45 1768.58 689.92
1224.55 1757.67 686.78



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1278.50 1866.25 718.60
AS DAILY LOW 1253.50 1820.00 705.30​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com[/QUOTE][/QUOTE]

 

[arturo1]

Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 04-August-2008

US jobless rate climbs to highest in four years, GM loses reach $15.5 billion during the last quarter, ISM flat and Construction Spending down another 0.4% result in a volatile session.


WEEKLY PIVOTS FOR WEEK ENDING 08-August-2008

R3 1319.00
R2 1289.50
R1 1276.75
PP 1260.50
S1 1249.00
S2 1231.25
S3 1202.00

ECONOMIC DATA

8:30 AM Personal Income
8:30 AM Personal Spending
10: AM Factory Orders


WEEKLY RECAP

Markets started the week with a flat opening for Monday’s session but concern about the bank and financial sectors and higher crude oil prices resulted in a strong downside move leaded by the financials as Merrill drop 12% during the session. After reaching the 1260.00 level on the E-mini SP’s, the indexes turned down and tumbled into the end of the session closing near the daily lows, for the day, the SP’s were down by 18.75 points and settled at 1235.00, the E-mini Nasdaq lost 26.75 finishing at 1813.75 and the Russell settled at 696.90, minus 11.50 points. The Dow sold off 239 points closing at 11131. Tuesday’s session was the opposite as the markets posted a strong rally despite the confirmation that Merrill was selling more stock and diluting the stock holder position value. Lower crude oil prices, better than expected Consumer Confidence numbers and the FED extending the limitation on short selling resulted in a massive rally with all the indexes reversing the previous day loses, the E-mini SP added 26.75 points closing at 1261.75, the E-mini Nasdaq was up 28.25 at 1842.00 and the E-mini Russell gained 16.70 points finishing the session at 713.60. The Dow had a strong session with a 266 points gain finishing the session at 12397. Optimism continued on Wednesday’s session as the ADP employment index showed the creation of 9K new jobs on the private sector (investors think that is good when 9K new jobs area created in a 300 million people country). Crude oil inventories were lower pushing prices higher and buyers took the equity markets higher as the FED confirmed the extension of its loan emergency plan until January 2009. The session was quite volatile but the indexes finished on a strong note, the E-mini SP added another 23.00 points and settled at 1284.75, the E-mini Nasdaq ended higher at 1856.25, up 14.25 points and the Russell gained 4.20 points at 717.80.The Dow posted another bullish session adding 186 points closing the session at 11583. Thursday saw the highs before the opening as the SP trades at 1290.00 during the night session; however the release of the Q2 GDP that came out at 1.9%, lower than expected and the weekly Initial claims much higher than expected kept the indexes under strong pressure since the pre opening. The Chicago PMI index bounced from the previous month reading but the session was negative with the indexes making their lows during the last hour of trading. The E-mini SP lost 17.75 points finishing the day at 1267.00, the E-mini Nasdaq settled almost unchanged at 1853.75 and the E-mini Russell gave back 3.30 points closing at 715.50. The Dow sold off strongly losing 205 points and settled at 11378. Friday’s important Nonfarm payrolls figures that showed a lost of 51K jobs and the Unemployment rate rising to a 4-year high at 5.7%, kept the markets under pressure since the beginning of the session. Adding to it, GM reported a huge 14 billion loss for the Q2. However the ISM index that measures manufacturing activity was flat for the month and Construction Spending was down “only” another 0.4%. The early loses were reversed partially during the session and besides the E-mini Nasdaq that lost a bit more than 1%,the other indexes closed moderately lower and even the E-mini Russell managed to close with a small gain. For the session, the Sp’s settled at 1259.50, the Nasdaq at 1832.50 and the E-mini Russell at 717.20. The Dow gave back another 51 points ending the day at 11326 as it continues to build a triangle formation that at some moment will result in a huge move.


FRIDAY’S MARKETS

Markets closed mixed after another decline in jobs. After making its highs during the Globex session, the E-mini SP opened at 1270.00 and with the other indexes got sold strongly during the first hour of the session. The Sp’s reached 1258.00, bounced back up to 1263.50 and pushed lower to 1253.00 joined by the E-mini Nasdaq which fell 547 point from its nightly high making a low at 1806.75. The SP’s posted a nice rebound reaching 1262.00, pulled back once more to 1257.00 and rallied to 1263.00 which acted as a strong resistance during all the session and backed off once more testing the early lows but failing to break lower. The double bottom resulted in another up move to 1263.00 where the short covering rally lost its momentum and as things slowed down the markets traded sideways into the end of the session holding the 1257.00 on the downside and failing to break above 1263.00. For the day, the E-mini SP lost 7.50 points closing the week at 1259.50, the E-mini Nasdaq that bounced nicely from its intraday lows settled at 1832.50, minus 21.25 points and the E-mini Russell ended the day at 717.20, up 1.70 points. The Dow settled at 11326 losing 51 points.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Last Friday I wrote:” The early rally that took prices during the Globex session just to 1290.00 has left many longs trapped at higher prices, and, if the E-mini SP will break below the 1260.00 area, will indicate a probable test of the 1180.00 level, which should be “the low” for the upcoming months and from where a 160 points rally or a long term sideways pattern that hold the SP’s between 1200-1300 for 90—120 days could be seen. However, in this business of probabilities we can not discard the scenario that the indexes already saw the lows for the current leg down and higher prices may come before another strong downside move. It seems that until the recent highs are exceeded for the SP’s and Dow, the indexes will continue to build a triangle pattern that later will get resolved with a very strong move. The Nasdaq has maintained during the last month a trading range, that looks closer to an upside break despite yesterday’s rejection from the top of the range.”

I have been writing about the confusing scenario where the different indexes remain vulnerable all the time that the July highs are intact but at the same time they could be in a consolidation period that later will result on a bear trend rally. Obviously that consolidation is taking place on the E-mini Nasdaq, obviously the Russell has maintained a better condition, but the main two indexes are still indicating the possibility of another move down before a “summer rally” and then a cyclical move up into the end of November happens. The current triangle formation on the Dow and the SP’s will have to get resolved during the next coming session s by a strong outbreak, that could result in a huge move once it gets confirmation that it is not a false break. Those areas are on the Dow the 11600 and 11250, and on the SP’s, 1285.00-87.00 and the obvious support levels at 1241.00-1238.00. I have been trying to get an early indication of that possible breakout on the 1258.00-1263.00 levels on the SP’s, and, at this time I can only call for more consolidation unless-until the index breaks above or below those levels. This is a busy week, a few important economic reports, and tomorrow, the FED’s decision about interest rates, that should keep the markets a bit quite during today’s session, maybe with a slightly bullish bias as traders close some positions before the news. Depending on what happens today and tomorrow after the announcement I will be able to figure a bias for the upcoming sessions.

So for today, I will look for more sideways action unless the downtrend is so strong that last week highs are the ultimate ones before the indexes resume their fast downtrend. Take into account that today’s economic news should have some impact on the early going as traders remain cautious about the personal spending figures.


TODAY’S SESSION

There is resistance above Friday’s settlements at 1262.50-1264.00 on the E-mini SP, 1838.75-1840.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 718.60-719.90 on the E-mini Russell. Nothing good happens if those levels are not exceeded and later on the session they hold on a pullback. If that happens, the indexes should try to move a bit higher reaching at least the 1266.75-1267.50 on the SP’s, 1847.50-1849.25 on the Nasdaq and 722.80-724.50 on the Russell. If those areas are not sold, then the next objectives will be at 1272.50-1274.00 on the Sp’s, 1261.00-1262.50 on the Nasdaq and 727.50-728.50 on the Russell.


There is support at 1258.25-1256.25 on the E-mini SP, 1827.75-1826.50 on the Nasdaq and 715.80-714.50 on the E-mini Russell. Failing to hold at those areas will bring the SP’s to 1250.50-1249.50, 1820.00-1818.50 on the Nasdaq and 712.20-711.00 ion the Russell. If the indexes do not mount a rally from those areas then a test of the late July lows could be in the cards if the indexes do not hold the 1244.75-1243.00 on the SP’s,1808.00-1803.75 on the Nasdaq and 708.70-707.60 on the Russell. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1279.75-1281.25 1872.50-1274.00 733.10-734.30
Resistance 3 1272.50-1274.00 1261.00-1262.50 727.50-728.50
Resistance 2 1266.75-1267.50 1847.50-1849.25 722.80-724.50
Resistance 1 1262.50-1264.00 1838.75-1840.00 718.60-719.90
PIVOT 1262.75 1834.25 713.70
Support 1 1258.25-1256.25 1827.75-1826.50 715.80-714.50
Support 2 1250.50-1249.50 1820.00-1818.50 712.20-711.00
Support 3 1244.75-1243.00 1805.00-1803.75 708.70-707.60
Support 4 1240.00-1238.75 1795.75-1794.00 701.80-700.40


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1310.60 1954.67 743.25
1305.40 1941.33 739.75
1297.00 1919.75 734.10
1288.60 1898.17 728.45
1283.40 1884.83 724.95
1275.00 1863.25 719.30
1266.60 1841.67 713.65
1264.00 1835.00 711.90
1261.40 1828.33 710.15
1253.00 1806.75 704.50
1244.60 1785.17 698.85
1239.40 1771.83 695.35
1231.00 1750.25 689.70
1222.60 1728.67 684.05
1217.40 1715.33 680.55



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1267.50 1848.25 725.70
AS DAILY LOW 1245.50 1791.50 710.90​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com[/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE]

 

[arturo1]

Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 05-August-2008


HSBC lower earnings, Personal Spending and Income better than expected but PCE Inflation up 0.8 result in a negative session for the US equity markets despite lower crude oil prices.

ECONOMIC DATA

10:00 AM ISM Services
2:15 PM FOMC Policy Statements


YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

Markets opened lower once the economic reports showed that inflation eroded the buying powers. The E-mini SP opened at 1256.50 and got immediately sold with the other indexes. The Sp’s reached 1251.00 bounced back up to 1254.00 and fell to 1249.50 under enormous pressure as the E-mini Russell and Nasdaq showed extreme weakness. With all the markets pushing lower, the E-mini SP reached 1247.00 while the Nasdaq tested 1806.75 and the Russell pushed below the 700.00 area. As crude oil sold off and the Dow bounced from its lower trend line, the indexes finally moved up on a short covering rally that lost its momentum below our 1258.00 updated resistance level. After posting a double top at 1257.00, the SP’s pushed once more lower testing the 1250.00 level from where another rally attempt finally reached the 1258.00 area, pulled back to 1256.50 and rallied to the 1260.00 level just to fail and sell off strongly making marginal new lows into the end of the session and bouncing back a few points before the close. For the day, the E-mini SP gave back 11.50 points closing the week at 1248.75, the E-mini Nasdaq settled at 1811.75, minus 21.25 points and the E-mini Russell lost 13.20 points closing the day at 704.00. The Dow settled at 11283 losing 42 points.



MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote:” I have been writing about the confusing scenario where the different indexes remain vulnerable all the time that the July highs are intact but at the same time they could be in a consolidation period that later will result on a bear trend rally. The main two indexes are still indicating the possibility of another move down before a “summer rally” and then a cyclical move up into the end of November happens. The current triangle formation on the Dow and the SP’s will have to get resolved during the next coming sessions by a strong outbreak, that could result in a huge move once it gets confirmation that it is not a false break. Those areas are on the Dow the 11600 and 11250, and on the SP’s, 1285.00-1287.00 and the obvious support levels at 1241.00-1238.00. I have been trying to get an early indication of that possible breakout on the 1258.00-1263.00 levels on the SP’s, and, at this time I can only call for more consolidation unless-until the index breaks above or below those levels. Take into account that today’s economic news should have some impact on the early going as traders remain cautious about the personal spending figures.”


The failure on the SP’s to get back above the 1260.00 level, the E-mini Nasdaq closing at the bottom of the last month, and below the 23.6 Fibonacci retracement between the November highs and the May lows, the resume of the weakness on the Russell and the Dow closing just at the bottom of the triangle formation, have placed the indexes once more in a very fragile situation. The lower energy and material prices, instead of helping the markets to move higher are acting at this moment as an additional weight on the equity indexes as the “healthy sectors” decline.

As on every FOMC rate decision day, it is very difficult to predict markets direction. There is consensus that the rate will remain unchanged, but the language in which the FED indicates a future bias or its commentaries about the level of inflation could result in a move in either direction. I personally think that all the time that the government does not fight in a serious way the increasing cost of leaving the markets will remain under short and long term pressure, but that does not mean that we can not have a rally, a bear market rally.

There is not a clear indication of what can happen during the session. The early part will be influenced by the ISM Services data, and, if it comes out as expected or a bit better, we should see some short covering rally in front of the interest rate decision. Once the first 2 hours of trading finish, traders should “ put the head down’ as the market enter in a “Mexican Siesta” period where nothing happens and everybody sleeps a couple of hours or takes a long lunch. Then 15-20 minutes before the announcement, the early move should get reversed as traders start to lighten positions. When the FOMC decision comes out, we should see three different moves during the next 40 minutes, an initial impulsive move that fails, a reversal of that move and the final trend move which is the one that we traders try to follow. So only if you have big bucks and wide stops get involve in the first two moves, but take into account that if you are lucky and you go in the right direction, be quick to take your profits. Anyway, stops must be wider than in a regular trading session. Many trading sessions when the FED makes a rate decision I have been on the sidelines losing all the action and trading opportunities, if that happens today, don’t feel frustrate, the first rule in this business is capital preservation.


TODAY’S SESSION

There is resistance at 1250.25-1251.50 on the E-mini SP, 1818.50-1821.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 705.80-707.60 on the E-mini Russell. If the markets open above those levels and the ISM Services index comes out not worst than expected, we could see some short covering during the first half of the trading session that carries the indexes up to 1253.75-1254.75 on the E-mini SP, 1825.00-1826.50 on the Nasdaq and 709.80-711.40. If those areas are not rejected and the indexes move higher, then reaching 1258.50-1259.75 on the SP’s, 1832.00-1834.00 on the Nasdaq and 714.70-715.40 on the Russell could be in the cards. If the indexes break up above those areas, then some shorts could be trapped at yesterday’s lows as the markets return to a neutral position and yesterday’s late sellers run to cover.

There is support at yesterday’s lows 1247.50-1246.00 on the E-mini SP, 1808.50-1806.75 on the Nasdaq and 702.20-700.40 on the E-mini Russell. If those areas can not hold, then a quick drop to the KEY SUPPORT levels at 1242.25-1241.00 on the SP’s, 1801.00-1799.50 on the Nasdaq and 698.20-696.60 on the Russell will have to be bought aggressively or the risk that the markets will go for new lows during the next trading session will be a realistic scenario. If those do not hold the selling pressure then the 1238.50-1237.00 on the SP’s, 1792.25-1791.00 on the Nasdaq and 693.30-692.00 will have to do the job. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1268.50-1269.50 1840.50-1841.75 718.80-719.80
Resistance 3 1258.50-1259.75 1832.00-1834.00 714.70-715.40
Resistance 2 1253.75-1254.75 1825.00-1826.50 709.80-711.40
Resistance 1 1250.25-1251.50 1818.50-1821.00 705.80-707.60
PIVOT 1252.75 1817.00 707.40
Support 1 1247.50-1246.00 1808.50-1806.75 702.20-700.40
Support 2 1242.25-1241.00 1801.00-1799.50 698.20-696.60
Support 3 1238.50-1237.00 1792.25-1791.00 693.30-692.00
Support 4 1235.25-1233.50 1781.00-1779.50 688.00-687.40


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1290.76 1894.69 750.19
1286.74 1886.31 745.61
1280.25 1872.75 738.20
1273.76 1859.19 730.79
1269.74 1850.81 726.21
1263.25 1837.25 718.80
1256.76 1823.69 711.39
1254.75 1819.50 709.10
1252.74 1815.31 706.81
1246.25 1801.75 699.40
1239.76 1788.19 691.99
1235.74 1779.81 687.41
1229.25 1766.25 680.00
1222.76 1752.69 672.59
1218.74 1744.31 668.01



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1256.00 1824.50 711.40
AS DAILY LOW 1239.00 1789.00 692.00​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

 

[arturo1]

Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 06-August-2008


Lower crude oil prices and the FED decision to hold interest rates unchanged result in a huge rally on the US markets. ISM services index report better than expected. Cisco beat expectations.


ECONOMIC DATA

10:35 AM Crude Inventories
3:00 PM Consumer Credit

YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

The stock market rallied strong after the FED held rates unchanged. A higher opening resulted in a trend day with huge gains as the market rallied since the beginning of the session. The E-mini SP opened higher at 1259.00 and after the first 15 minutes of the session moved higher reaching 1267.00 where traders waited for the ISM Services index to get released. After holding a feeble pullback to the 1264.00 area, the index moved higher reaching new highs at 1272.50. The markets traded sideways for about5 an hour waiting for the FOMC policy statement. Once the news was out, the E-mini SP moved lower testing 1268.00 where a double bottom held. The SP’s moved higher reaching 1278.00, pulled back once more to the 1270.00 area an rallied to new highs testing the 1279.00 level from where a late short covering rally extended the already huge gains. At the end of the day, the E-mini SP added 34.25 points closing the session at 1283.00, the E-mini Nasdaq advanced 3.2% gaining 57.25 finishing the session at 1869.00 and the E-mini Russell settled at 721.00, up 17.00 points. The Dow joined the party addling 331 points closing the session at 11615.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Yesterday I quoted back:” The current triangle formation on the Dow and the SP’s will have to get resolved during the next coming sessions by a strong outbreak, that could result in a huge move once it gets confirmation that it is not a false break. Those areas are on the Dow the 11600 and 11250, and on the SP’s, 1285.00-1287.00 and the obvious support levels at 1241.00-1238.00. I have been trying to get an early indication of that possible breakout on the 1258.00-1263.00 levels on the SP’s, and, at this time I can only call for more consolidation unless-until the index breaks above or below those levels.”

The huge rally that the indexes posted yesterday reversing the previous day loses and extending the move up to the KEY resistance areas on the SP’s and Dow, together with the E-mini Nasdaq moving in just 24 hours from the lower support area to the upper boundary of the trading range, it’s nothing but impressive, and a move that, if even in the medium term won’t be able to hold, make the last low real important and probably completes short term fifth Elliot wave structure on the E-mini SP. This positive reaction from the last Monday’s lows could be able or, to continue to move higher for the next 6-8 days, despite some consolidation that could be seen during today’s trading session or fail and move lower to test the July lows and keep a consolidation process, that ultimately will move the indexes to new lows that complete the bear campaign and then to a long term consolidation process.

Many times I have seen that the move that the stock market makes during a “FED DAY” gets reversed the next day, but yesterday’s late continuation of the move with the indexes making new highs into the end of the session, seem to be so powerful that only a big fall will keep the markets away from moving higher. However, it can happen as yesterday’s huge move could have exhausted this countertrend rally.

For today’s trading session, on a higher opening I will wait for the rally to stall, maybe after the first 30-40 minutes of the session, and I will try to go short with tight stops, but probably the first decent pullback will be a buying opportunity. So both sides should offer good entries unless the indexes get knocked out strongly. Keep a close eye on the Crude oil as another wave of selling on that contract could give the equity indexes another boost. Remember that a clear breakout of the 11600 area on the Dow and 1287.00 on the E-mini SP will be the first indication of a move that could reach higher prices during the coming sessions.



TODAY’S SESSION

There is resistance at 1284.50-1286.00 on the E-mini SP, 1874.75-1876.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 722.70-724.40 on the E-mini Russell. For the rally to continue with good momentum, all the indexes will have to trade above those levels or ones more the price divergences will result is a strong pullback if not today tomorrow. If the markets continue to show their muscles, then the move could reach 1289.50-1290.00 on the SP’s, 1884.00-1886.00 on the Nasdaq and 726.50-727.40 on the Russell. If the rally stalls there, then a good short entry could be seen, but id this short covering rally continues, then the next areas at 1294.75-1296.50 on the SP, 1892.75-1894.50 on the Nasdaq and 731.20-732.80 could be seen before the markets get overbought in the short term

There is support at yesterday’s lows 1279.25-1278.00 on the E-mini SP, 1863.25-1861.50 on the Nasdaq and 719.30-717.60 on the E-mini Russell. If the markets wilkl continue with this strong uptrend, those areas must hold, if that not happens, then the pullback should reach 1272.50-1271.25 on the SP’s 1851.50-1851.00 on the Nasdaq and 715.30-714.20 on the Russell. Nothing bad happens all the time that those level holds, and they will hold if the indexes are in good shape. However if those can not hold the selling pressure, the KEY levels for today will be 1268.75-1266.25 on the SP’s, 1839.00-1837.25 on the Nasdaq and 709.30-708.80 on the Russell. Trading bellow those areas will indicate that yesterday’s huge rally has already exhausted the countertrend move and probably we have a short term high. GOOD LUCK.

.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1302.25-1303.50 1903.50-1904.75 735.00-735.90
Resistance 3 1294.75-1296.50 1892.75-1894.50 721.20-732.80
Resistance 2 1289.50-1290.00 1884.00-1886.00 726.50-727.40
Resistance 1 1284.50-1286.00 1874.75-1876.00 722.70-724.40
PIVOT 1271.50 1851.00 715.20
Support 1 1279.25-1278.00 1863.25-1861.50 719.30-717.60
Support 2 1272.50-1271.25 1851.50-1851.00 715.30-714.20
Support 3 1268.75-1266.25 1839.00-1837.25 709.30-708.80
Support 4 1262.00-1260.50 1831.50-1829.75 705.40-703.00


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1347.39 1977.55 751.69
1338.36 1962.45 747.31
1323.75 1938.00 740.20
1309.14 1913.55 733.09
1300.11 1898.45 728.71
1285.50 1874.00 721.60
1270.89 1849.55 714.49
1266.38 1842.00 712.30
1261.86 1834.45 710.11
1247.25 1810.00 703.00
1232.64 1785.55 695.89
1223.61 1770.45 691.51
1209.00 1746.00 684.40
1194.39 1721.55 677.29
1185.36 1706.45 672.91



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1302.25 1903.50 730.60
AS DAILY LOW 1265.00 1839.50 712.00​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com[/QUOTE]

 

[arturo1]

Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 07-August-2008

CISCO beating expectations and a wider than expected loss on Freddie Mac resulted in another positive session with the Nasdaq leading the way up and the oil trading lower.



ECONOMIC DATA

8:30 AM Initial Claims
10:00 AM Pending Home Sales
3:00 PM Consumer Credit


YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

The E-mini SP opened lower and bounced to 1281.25 where sellers stepped in and tried to push the markets lower with the Sp’s reaching 1276.50 from where the index rallied back up to the 1281.50 area just to get sold once again and pushed down to 1275.25 helped by the E-mini Nasdaq that tested the 1856.00 area where a double bottom that coincided with a favorable oil inventories resulted in a strong short covering rally that once it broke up the 1281.00 area on the SP’s printed new highs on the intraday charts. The E-mini SP reached 1285.50 and the E-mini Nasdaq got as high as 1891.00. A feeble pullback to the 1281.00 area on the SP invited buyers to step in and the index rallied back up to 1285.00 posting a lower low while the Nasdaq made a new high at 1893.50 from where the indexes pulled. The E-mini SP tested the 1281.00 level and rallied to new highs as the crude oil resumed its downtrend. The SP’s reached 1291.75 and the Nasdaq to 1906.75 where the rally ended resulting in a pullback that tested the 1286.50 and 1896.00 areas for the SP’s and Nasdaq respectively before bouncing back modestly into the end. For the day, the E-mini SP closed higher 4.75 points at 1287.75, the E-mini Nasdaq gained another 27.00 point and settled at 1896.00 and the Russell closed up 4.10, at 725.40. The Dow ended the session up 40 points at 11656.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote:” This positive reaction from the last Monday’s lows could be able or, to continue to move higher for the next 6-8 days, despite some consolidation that could be seen during today’s trading session or fail and move lower to test the July lows and keep a consolidation process, that ultimately will move the indexes to new lows that complete the bear campaign and then to a long term consolidation process. For today’s trading session, on a higher opening I will wait for the rally to stall, maybe after the first 30-40 minutes of the session, and I will try to go short with tight stops, but probably the first decent pullback will be a buying opportunity. So both sides should offer good entries unless the indexes get knocked out strongly. Keep a close eye on the Crude oil as another wave of selling on that contract could give the equity indexes another boost. Remember that a clear breakout of the 11600 area on the Dow and 1287.00 on the E-mini SP will be the first indication of a move that could reach higher prices during the coming sessions.”

We came into the session waiting for a reversal after yesterday’s huge rally, BUT also pointing that its extension and strength seemed to be too much for this to happen. So our most probable scenario was to see the markets rally at the beginning and then offer a buying opportunity on the first decent pullback. Yesterday advance and close above the 1287.00 area on the SP’s and 11600 on the Dow is the first indication that this rally could get more legs and probably reach the 1330.00-1340.00 area during the next 8 days. For that to happen, a second close above those areas will have to be seen today. Yesterday’s high on the SP that has matched the July 23 high will have to get crushed to eliminate the risk of a failure at this level. So we have two possible scenarios, one pointing for a continuation of this move with very strong upside momentum and the second one a fiasco that bring prices back to the most recent lows. I personally think that there is still a chance of a reversal but I won’t stay in front of the train if yesterday’s highs get exceeded.

So, for today’s session, I will go short ONLY if the indexes are trading in negative territory, and if that happens I will look to short the bounces during the session as we could see the markets trading down, BUT I will avoid the short side if the markets are trading in positive territory.




TODAY’S SESSION

There is strong resistance 1289.00-1290.00 on the E-mini SP, 1902.00-1904.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 727.00-728.40 on the E-mini Russell. Those levels won’t get exceeded if the trend will turn down, but if the rally continues, then the next hurdles will be above yesterday’s highs at 1293.00-1294.50 on the SP’s, 1908.50-1910.25 on the Nasdaq and 730.80-731.80 on the Russell. If the indexes break above them, more shorts will run to cover pushing prices up to 1299.00-1301.00 on the SP’s 1918.00-1919.50 on the Nasdaq and 734.50-735.60 on the Russell.

There is support at 1286.00-1284.25 on the E-mini SP, 1895.75-1894.00 on the Nasdaq and 724.00-722.80 on the E-mini Russell. Those levels on the Russell seem to be extremely important, if they can not hold the early pressure sellers will step in driving prices down to the next areas at1280.00-1278.50 on the SP’s, 1885.00-1883.50 on the Nasdaq and 719.60-718.00 on the Russell. If buyers don’t appear there, then probably we have short term highs and the indexes could easily fall to 1273.75-1272.00 on the SP’s,1872.00-1870.00 on the Nasdaq and 714.20-713.50 on the Russell. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1304.00-1305.50 1926.00-1928.00 738.20-739.00
Resistance 3 1299.00-1301.00 1918.00-1919.50 734.50-735.60
Resistance 2 1293.00-1294.50 1908.50-1910.25 730.80-731.80
Resistance 1 1289.00-1290.00 1902.00-1904.00 727.00-728.40
PIVOT 1285.00 1886.00 722.00
Support 1 1286.00-1284.25 1895.75-1894.00 724.00-722.80
Support 2 1280.00-1278.50 1885.00-1883.50 719.60-718.00
Support 3 1273.75-1272.00 1872.00-1870.00 714.20-713.50
Support 4 1268.00-1266.75 1864.00-1862.00 708.00-707.10

.



S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1318.45 1988.86 752.67
1314.55 1976.89 749.13
1308.25 1957.50 743.40
1301.95 1938.11 737.67
1298.05 1926.14 734.13
1291.75 1906.75 728.40
1285.45 1887.36 722.67
1283.50 1881.38 720.90
1281.55 1875.39 719.13
1275.25 1856.00 713.40
1268.95 1836.61 707.67
1265.05 1824.64 704.13
1258.75 1805.25 698.40
1252.45 1785.86 692.67
1248.55 1773.89 689.13



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1298.00 1926.00 734.00
AS DAILY LOW 1281.50 1876.00 719.30​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com[/QUOTE][/QUOTE]

 

[arturo1]

Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 08-August-2008

AIG huge losses and share plunge, Wal-Mart and other retailers disappointing sales, weekly initial claims at six year high and better than expected Pending home sales resulted in a negative session for the key indexes.


ECONOMIC DATA

8:30 AM Productivity-prel
10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories


YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

Markets opened lower but managed to hold most of the session above the opening lows. The E-mini SP opened lower at 1279.00 and sold off strongly together with the other reaching 1271.25 while the Nasdaq printed a low at 1876.50 where buyers stepped in and leaded by the strength on the Russell and Nasdaq the SP’s managed to come back up reaching 1282.00 where the short covering rally ended. Unable to reach our pivot level at 1285.00 and despite the strength on the indexes mentioned above, the SP’s fell to 1275.25 where support came in and the index bounced once more testing the early highs. The SP’s traded most of the session in a narrow range between the 1276.00-1282.00 areas. As the last two hour of trading started, the index finally broke down making new intraday lows at 1269.25 from where it bounced back to 1272.00 and after failing to break higher sold off strongly reaching 1263.50 before bouncing back into the end. For the day, the E-mini SP lost 19.75 points and settled at 1268.00, the E-mini Nasdaq ended the session at 1886.00, minus 10.25 points and the E-mini Russell at 715.60, minus 9.60 points. The Dow lost 224 points finishing the session at 11431.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote:” We came into the session waiting for a reversal after yesterday’s huge rally, BUT also pointing that its extension and strength seemed to be too much for this to happen. So our most probable scenario was to see the markets rally at the beginning and then offer a buying opportunity on the first decent pullback. Yesterday advance and close above the 1287.00 area on the SP’s and 11600 on the Dow is the first indication that this rally could get more legs and probably reach the 1330.00-1340.00 area during the next 8 days. For that to happen, a second close above those areas will have to be seen today. Yesterday’s high on the SP that has matched the July 23 high will have to get crushed to eliminate the risk of a failure at this level. So we have two possible scenarios, one pointing for a continuation of this move with very strong upside momentum and the second one a fiasco that bring prices back to the most recent lows. I personally think that there is still a chance of a reversal but I won’t stay in front of the train if yesterday’s highs get exceeded. ”

Markets reversed some of their late gains while they keep showing strong divergences between the indexes. The relative strength on the Nasdaq and Russell kept the markets with the nose above the waters but it will take only a move to the highs on those both indexes that fail to break higher to bring sellers back with all their force into action. On the other side of the coin, the last pullback from the 1292.00 area triple top during the last two sessions, which get reversed from yesterday’s 1263.00 lows could push prices up to the 1330.00-1340.00 areas that I pointed yesterday as an upside objective if the rally will continue before the bear campaign resumes. So the coming days will give as a clear indication of what can happen in the short term. We should keep in mind that independent that today we could see a consolidation or inside day, next week option expiration usually keeps a slightly bullish bias.

So, for today’s trading session, the indexes could trade on a sideways pattern, or confirm with a close below the 1263.00 on the SP’s and 11300 on the Dow a reversal that probably, will test the July lows or print new lows in this bear campaign.



TODAY’S SESSION

There is resistance 1270.50-1272.50 on the E-mini SP, 1892.50-1894.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 717.00-718.40 on the E-mini Russell. Those will have to get exceeded and hold on a pullback if yesterday’s sell off is over, if that happens and the indexes manage to push above the next resistance areas at 1275.00-1276.25 on the SP’s, 1903.00-1905.50 on the Nasdaq and 719.90-720.80 on the Russell, the short covering should be able to reach the next levels at 1282.00-1283.25 on the SP’s, 1908.76-19010.50 on the Nasdaq and 723.90-725.10 on the Russell. Reaching those levels will offer a very good short entry, but if those areas get exceeded I don’t want to be short until I see the SP’s trading back below 1278.00.

There is support above yesterday’s lows at 1265.50-1263..50 on the SP’s, 1883.00-1881.75 on the Nasdaq and 714.20-712.80 on the Russell. Nothing bad happens all the time that those levels can hold an early sell off and they could offer a good long trade. However if the selling pressure does not end at those areas , then look for the different markets to move lower reaching 1260.00-1258.50 on the SP’s,1877.00-1876.00 on the Nasdaq and 709.50-708.00 on the Russell. If trader don’t bit strong does areas, then the recent highs will get confirmed as a short term top and the indexes could fall to 1254.50-1253.50 on the SP’s, 1871.50-1868.00 on the Nasdaq and 704.30-703.40 on the Russell. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1289.50-1291.00 1916.00-1918.00 729.00-730.20
Resistance 3 1282.00-1283.25 1908.75-1910.50 723.90-725.10
Resistance 2 1275.00-1276.25 1903.00-1905.50 719.90-720.80
Resistance 1 1270.50-1272.50 1892.50-1894.00 717.00-718.40
PIVOT 1273.50 1890.00 717.50
Support 1 1265.50-1263.50 1883.00-1881.75 714.20-712.80
Support 2 1260.00-1258.50 1877.00-1876.00 709.50-708.00
Support 3 1254.50-1253.50 1871.50-1868.00 704.30-703.40
Support 4 1249.50-1248.00 1860.50-1859.50 701.00-699.80

.



S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1330.26 1958.31 750.43
1324.24 1950.94 746.87
1314.50 1939.00 741.10
1304.76 1927.06 735.33
1298.74 1919.69 731.77
1289.00 1907.75 726.00
1279.26 1895.81 720.23
1276.25 1892.13 718.45
1273.24 1888.44 716.67
1263.50 1876.50 710.90
1253.76 1864.56 705.13
1247.74 1857.19 701.57
1238.00 1845.25 695.80
1228.26 1833.31 690.03
1222.24 1825.94 686.47



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1278.50 1896.50 720.80
AS DAILY LOW 1253.00 1865.00 705.70​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com[/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE]

 

[arturo1]

Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 11-August-2008


Fannie Mae $2.3 billion losses, Productivity lower than expected and a huge rally on the US dollar pushing commodities lower, resulted in a huge gain for the US markets with all the indexes winning the gold medal.

WEEKLY PIVOTS FOR WEEK ENDING 08-August-2008

R3 1321.00
R2 1311.50
R1 1297.00
PP 1278.75
S1 1263.75
S2 1227.00
S3 1207.75


ECONOMIC DATA

None

WEEKLY RECAP

A positive week for the US markets as lower crude oil prices suggest less inflation pressure for the upcoming months. Monday’s trading session started on a weak note as HSBC reported lower than expected earnings. Personal Income and Spending showed that the US consumer is still alive and Factory Orders came out better than expected, however the markets ended lower despite the crude oil sell off that resulted in a strong short covering rally that failed to hold into the end of the session. For the day, the E-mini SP lost 11.50 points closing the week at 1248.75, the E-mini Nasdaq settled at 1811.75, minus 21.25 points and the E-mini Russell lost 13.20 points at 704.00. The Dow settled at 11283 losing 42 points. Tuesday’s session the indexes opened up strong waiting for the FOMC policy statement release. CISCO reported better than expected earnings resulting in an early boost for all the equity indexes regardless of the ISM services index that showed additional contraction in the economic activity but the indexes managed to hold their gains until the FED’s interest rate decision that kept rates unchanged got released. The indexes finished the session with huge gains as the E-mini SP added 34.25 points closing the session at 1283.00, the E-mini Nasdaq advanced 3.2% or 57.25 points at 1869.00 and the E-mini Russell settled at 721.00, up 17.00 points. The Dow closed higher 331 points at 11615. The positive momentum continued into Wednesday’s session despite the wider than expected losses on Freddie Mac, the indexes held the selling pressure helped by the increased selling on the crude oil which traded near the $117 per barrel. For the day, the E-mini SP closed at 1287.75, the E-mini Nasdaq gained another 27.00 point and settled at 1896.00 and the Russell closed up 4.10, at 725.40. The Dow ended the session up 40 points at 11656. Thursday’s session the indexes got reversed as a lower opening resulted in a late sell off. AIG reported another huge loss and the weekly initial job claims jumped to levels not seen in the last six years. The indexes closed with big losses with the E-mini SP losing 19.75 points closing the session at 1268.00, the E-mini Nasdaq at 1886.00, minus 10.25 points and the E-mini Russell at 715.60, minus 9.60 points. The Dow lost 224 points finishing the session at 11431. Friday’s extraordinary gains for the US dollar against all the other currencies that resulted in another sell off in the crude oil contract signaling lower inflation pressure for the near future and an early succe4sful test of the previous day lows, resulted in a monster rally since the beginning of the session, productivity was up 2.2% and the indexes posted Olympic sized gains. The SP ended higher by 24.25 points at 1292.25, The Nasdaq closed at 1923.75 and the Russell added 16 points closing at 731.60. The Dow was up 302 points at 11734. For the week the indexes posted strong gains advancing between 2.5 % and 4.5% while crude oil lost a huge 7.9% during the same period.


FRIDAY’S MARKETS

Markets opened lower and after testing last Thursday’s low rallied and never looked back. The E-mini SP opened lower printing a low on the charts at 1262.00 where buyers stepped in strongly pushing the index up to 1268.50. A two point pullback was met with huge bids pushing the indexes up in a parabolic move to 1286.50 on the SP’s and 1916.50 on the E-mini Nasdaq. After holding in a sideways trend for the next hour an unable to show some profit taking, the indexes pushed to new intraday highs at 1289.50 on the SP’s and 1923.50 on the Nasdaq. The uptrend continued with very strong momentum and the indexes kept moving higher with low volumes but with shorts running for cover. As the crude oil continued to collapse, the indexes moved to new highs reaching 1296.75 and 1931.00 for the SP’s and Nasdaq respectively. During the last hour of trading the indexes continue to hold theirs gains and printed new marginal highs at 1298.00 on the SP’s, 1932.00 on the Nasdaq and 735.40 on the Russell before pulling back into the close. For the day, the SP was up 24.25 points and settled at 1292.25, the E-mini Nasdaq ended at 193.75 up 37.75 points and the E-mini Russell closed the day with a gain of 16.00 points at 731.60. The Dow ended with huge gains at 11734, plus 302 points.



MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Last Friday I wrote:” Markets reversed some of their late gains while they keep showing strong divergences between the indexes. The relative strength on the Nasdaq and Russell kept the markets with the nose above the waters but it will take only a move to the highs on those both indexes that fail to break higher to bring sellers back with all their force into action. On the other side of the coin, the last pullback from the 1292.00 area triple top during the last two sessions, which get reversed from yesterday’s 1263.00 lows could push prices up to the 1330.00-1340.00 areas that I pointed yesterday as an upside objective if the rally will continue before the bear campaign resumes. So the coming days will give as a clear indication of what can happen in the short term. We should keep in mind that independent that today we could see a consolidation or inside day, next week option expiration usually keeps a slightly bullish bias. There is support above yesterday’s lows at 1265.50-1263.50 on the SP’s, 1883.00-1881.75 on the Nasdaq and 714.20-712.80 on the Russell. Nothing bad happens all the time that those levels can hold an early sell off and they could offer a good long trade”


The early pressure that ended in a double bottom on all the indexes resulted in a great entry for those who were looking where to be buyers. The huge rally that crashed all the resistance levels and turned into a parabolic rally once the pivot points were exceeded have the indexes once more on a very strong position. The triangle formation on the SP’s and Dow has been broken to the upside signaling short term buying pressure and a possible continuation of the rally that if everything is OK, probably will reach my 1330.00-1340.00 objective area during the coming sessions. The same bullish pattern can be seen on the Nasdaq which finally broke above the July highs and if it rallies together with the other two indexes should reach the 2050.00 level. The long term patter remain bearish but the seasonal cycle, a summer rally and the US elections call if not for a new ”bullish” campaign, at least for a consolidation where the lows for the next months have already been printed in the charts. Last Friday huge move came from the breakout point at 1263.00 on the SP’s and despite the fact that the rally could get consolidated during the next couple of days, the momentum remains strong and only a reversal that seems unlikely at this moment could turns the short term sentiment to bearish. The week has a few important economic reports, and the August option expiration, that usually keeps a bullish tone, so a pullback between today and tomorrow should be a buying opportunity for the rest of the week.

This time the divergence between the Nasdaq which usually signals market direction has been resolved pushing the other indexes up, and only if today I see the markets, that have the possibility that already exhausted the buying pressure end lower, then I will hold a short position. If the indexes post another positive session, I would not want to hold my short term short positions anymore. However Friday’s huge rally could show some consolidation before we have a clear indication of where this market will go on the short term.

So, for today’s trading session I will expect a two sides action trading session, where getting short against resistance once the rally stalls could give as a good short trade, but the positive momentum on the different indexes call for the first decent pullback to hold and at least try to reach Friday’s highs.


TODAY’S SESSION

There is resistance around Friday’s highs at 1933.50-1935.00 on the E-mini SP, 1838.75-1840.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 733.80-734.90 on the E-mini Russell. A test of those highs that fail to break higher at least by 2 points on the SP’s and 3 points on the Nasdaq, should indicate a possible intraday sell of that can result in a 12 point pullback on the SP’s. But if the rally is due to continue during today’s session, then the markets should be headed for a test of the 1306.00-1306.75 on the SP’s,1944.00-1946.50 on the Nasdaq and 737.20-738.30 on the Russell. If the euphoria continues and some real buying comes into the markets, then the indexes could reach 1311.50-1312.50 on the SP’s, 1952.75-1954.00 on the Nasdaq and 741.00-741.90 on the Russell.


There is support at 1288.75-1287.50 on the E-mini SP, 1919.00-1917.25 on the Nasdaq and 729.40-727.80 on the E-mini Russell. If the strong momentum is still present during today’s session, those levels should get only tested and hold, but if we’ll see a more decent pullback, then the next levels at 1283.50-1282.00 on the SP’s,1911.50-1910.00 on the Nasdaq and 725.00-724.90 on the Russell will be testred. Those, if the selling pressure ends there should offer a GREAT long entry, but if the markets fail there, then the next levels at 1278.00-1276.50 on the SP’s, 1898.00-1896.50 on the Nasdaq and 721.10-720.00 on the Russell could be seen before the markets react to the upside. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1320.00-1320.75 1960.00-1962.50 744.80-745.60
Resistance 3 1311.50-1312.50 1952.75-1954.00 741.00-741.90
Resistance 2 1306.00-1306.75 1944.00-1946.50 737.20-738.30
Resistance 1 1296.50-1298.00 1933.50-1935.00 733.80-734.90
PIVOT 1284.00 1911.50 726.10
Support 1 1288.75-1287.50 1919.00-1917.25 729.40-727.80
Support 2 1283.50-1282.00 1911.50-1910.00 725.00-724.90
Support 3 1278.00-1276.50 1898.00-1896.50 721.10-720.00
Support 4 1272.25-1271.50 1891.00-1988.75 726.70-715.40


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1356.25 2017.35 774.56
1347.75 2004.90 768.84
1334.00 1984.75 759.60
1320.25 1964.60 750.36
1311.75 1952.15 744.64
1298.00 1932.00 735.40
1284.25 1911.85 726.16
1280.00 1905.63 723.30
1275.75 1899.40 720.44
1262.00 1879.25 711.20
1248.25 1859.10 701.96
1239.75 1846.65 696.24
1226.00 1826.50 687.00
1212.25 1806.35 677.76
1203.75 1793.90 672.04



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1313.00 1954.25 745.60
AS DAILY LOW 1277.00 1901.50 721.40​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com[/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE]

 

[arturo1]

Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 12-August-2008


Stocks continue to rally as crude oil makes new lows and gas prices move down for the 25 consecutive sessions. FED said that the lending standards have tightened.


ECONOMIC DATA

8:30 AM Trade Balance
2:00 PM Treasury Budget


YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

Another solid session for the equity markets as this short term rally continues based on lower crude oil prices and ignoring the deteriorating credit conditions. The E-mini SP started the session with relative calm at 1292.50 and pulled back to 1290.75 where buyers stepped in pushing the index up to 1298.75 where the move stalled. After a few minutes and in the absence of sellers the indexes moved to new highs in another uptrend move with the Sp’s reaching 1310.25. A feeble pullback to 1307.25 was bought and guided by lower crude oil prices; the SP’s rallied to new highs reaching 1313.50 while the E-mini Nasdaq reached 1966.00. After failing to move higher and once the crude oil started to move higher, the indexes sold off in a profit taking move. The Sp’s pushed below the 1300.00 area testing 1297.50 and rallied back into the end of the session closing at 1305.00 for the day, the E-mini SP was up 12.75 points ending the session at 1305.00, the E-mini N19.25 points and the E-mini Russell that was strong during all the day ended at 750.40, up 18.80 points. The Dow has another positive session advancing 48 points finishing the session at 11782.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Last Friday I wrote:“The triangle formation on the SP’s and Dow has been broken to the upside signaling short term buying pressure and a possible continuation of the rally that if everything is OK, probably will reach my 1330.00-1340.00 objective area during the coming sessions. The same bullish pattern can be seen on the Nasdaq which finally broke above the July highs and if it rallies together with the other two indexes should reach the 2050.00 level. The long term patter remain bearish but the seasonal cycle, a summer rally and the US elections call if not for a new ”bullish” campaign, at least for a consolidation where the lows for the next months have already been printed in the charts. Last Friday huge move came from the breakout point at 1263.00 on the SP’s and despite the fact that the rally could get consolidated during the next couple of days, the momentum remains strong and only a reversal that seems unlikely at this moment could turns the short term sentiment to bearish. If the indexes post another positive session, I would not want to hold my short term short positions anymore. So, for today’s trading session I will expect a two sides action trading session, where getting short against resistance once the rally stalls could give as a good short trade, but the positive momentum on the different indexes call for the first decent pullback to hold and at least try to reach Friday’s highs.”


We came into the trading session looking for some consolidation and a probable slow day that finally turned in another bullish session. The late reversal where the indexes gave back half of their gains, has posted a “high” for this leg up that, regardless of the bullish momentum calls for a consolidation of the move or a pullback, that at this moment has to be seen as a buying opportunity, at least for the short term. The markets are ready for a rest that if it does not start today will make any long entry extremely dangerous as the markets can not sustain this fast uptrend and a huge reversal could happen at any moment. On the other side of the coin, if a consolidation of the last move up starts today and work overbought and overextended conditions , further advance could be seen once the indexes build another base to continuing with this move up that could last for a few more weeks.

So assuming that the rally has reached a short term high, look for early strength to be sold and probably reach the 1292.00-1290.00 area on the SP’s. Those levels should hold at least during today’s trading session, however if a pullback do not find support there, the we could see the SP’s falling back to the 1280.00-1270.000 band before the markets make another attempt to move higher.



TODAY’S SESSION

There is initial resistance at 1307.75-1309.50 on the E-mini SP, 1947.00-1948.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 752.90-755.40 on the Russell. An early pop that reaches those levels should be a great short entry, with very tight stops as if the indexes managed to break higher a test of yesterday’s highs at 1311.75-1312.50 on the SP’s, 1955.00-1956.75 on the Nasdaq and 757.60-758.10 on the Russell could be in the cards. If the indexes managed to reach those highs and the Sp’s and Russell post a double top, once more try to get short. However if the rally continues the next resistance levels are at 1315.75-1316.50 on the SP’s,1966.50-1968.50 on the Nasdaq and 762.00-763.80 on the Russell.

There is support at 1300.00-1298.50 on the E-mini SP, 1938.75-1936.50 on the Nasdaq and 747.90-745.40 on the E-mini Russell. Those levels should hold on the first attempt to break lower and get back up at least to yesterday’s settlements. Breaking below those levels should be the first indication that the indexes will get lower and reach the next support levels at 1295.75-1293.50 on the SP’s, 1932.25-1930.75 on the Nasdaq and 742.90-741.50 on the Russell. If the indexes do not hold those levels, then a move to 1291.00-1289.50 on the Sp’s, 1922.00-1920.00 on the Nasdaq and 738.80-737.50 will be reached in a pullback that is almost imminent. GOOD LUCK

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1320.50-1321.25 1973.00-1974.75 766.00-767.20
Resistance 3 1315.75-1316.50 1966.50-1968.50 762.00-763.80
Resistance 2 1311.75-1312.50 1955.00-1956.75 757.60-758.10
Resistance 1 1307.75-1309.50 1947.00-1948.00 752.90-755.40
PIVOT 1302.00 1942.50 746.20
Support 1 1300.00-1298.50 1938.75-1936.50 747.90-745.40
Support 2 1295.75-1293.50 1932.25-1930.75 742.90-741.50
Support 3 1291.00-1289.50 1922.00-1920.00 738.80-737.50
Support 4 1283.00-1283.00 1911.75-1910.00 734.40-734.70


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1354.76 2042.45 801.97
1348.74 2031.30 795.53
1339.00 2013.25 785.10
1329.26 1995.20 774.67
1323.24 1984.05 768.23
1313.50 1966.00 757.80
1303.76 1947.95 747.37
1300.75 1942.38 744.15
1297.74 1936.80 740.93
1288.00 1918.75 730.50
1278.26 1900.70 720.07
1272.24 1889.55 713.63
1262.50 1871.50 703.20
1252.76 1853.45 692.77
1246.74 1842.30 686.33



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1322.00 1978.00 767.80
AS DAILY LOW 1296.50 1930.75 740.50​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com[/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE]

 

[arturo1]

Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 13-August-2008


Stocks trade lower as JP Morgan loses another $1.5 billion. A report shows that one third of new homeowners owe more than houses are worth.


ECONOMIC DATA

8:30 AM Retail Sales
8:30 AM Retail Sales-exc. auto
10:00 AM Business Inventories
10:35 AM Crude Inventories


YESTERDAY’S MARKETS


Markets opened lower and traded mixed during the first half of the trading session. The E-mini SP opened at 1300.00 and bounced to the 1301.00 level before pushing down to 1296.75 where the markets held and bounced once more to 1301.75 just below our pivot point level. After failing to break higher and with the crude oil bouncing above the 114.00 level the E-mini SP pushed down to new lows testing 1294.00 just at our support level. After holding support the index moved once more to the upside joined by the E-mini Nasdaq that reached its daily highs at 1961.00. Once the E-mini SP failed to break higher, the Nasdaq pulled back testing the 1294.00 area and then finally succumbed to the selling pressure pushing all the way down to 1285.00 and bouncing back nicely into the end of the session. For the day, the SP’s lost 13.50 points closing at 1291.50, the E-mini Nasdaq managed to close almost unchanged with a 1.75 point advance at 1944.75 and the E-mini Russell gave back 3.40 points ending the session at 747.00. The Dow lost 139 points closing the session at 11642.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Last Friday I wrote:” The markets are ready for a rest that if it does not start today will make any long entry extremely dangerous as the markets can not sustain this fast uptrend and a huge reversal could happen at any moment. On the other side of the coin, if a consolidation of the last move up starts today and work overbought and overextended conditions , further advance could be seen once the indexes build another base to continuing with this move up that could last for a few more weeks. So assuming that the rally has reached a short term high, look for early strength to be sold and probably reach the 1292.00-1290.00 area on the SP’s. Those levels should hold at least during today’s trading session, however if a pullback do not find support there, then we could see the SP’s falling back to the 1280.00-1270.000 band before the markets make another attempt to move higher.”

The consolidation and pullback that we were waiting for finally happen as the indexes could not sustain the recent pace. The markets showed another mixed picture with the Nasdaq holding the most of the session in positive territory joined by the Russell, against the notorious weakness in the Dow that finally was carried to the E-mini SP. The indexes should be able to give another try to the recent highs all the time that this divergence persist, however, yesterday’s failure for the Nasdaq to break to new highs has also printed a top on the charts for that index, so weakness in that index could be a signal of a more sizeable pullback that maybe will reach the 1270.00 area on the SP’s and 11400 on the Dow during the coming sessions. Today, we get the Retail Sales figures that surely will have a great impact into today’s trading session, and with the option expiration next Friday, any move could be a big one. I have to consider also on my analysis that yesterday’s lows could hold during today’s and tomorrow session, and probably if this huge countertrend rally is near the end, then fall sharply next Friday.


So for today, all the time that yesterday’s lows can hold joined by a strong or relative strong performance on the E-mini Nasdaq, the markets should be able to hold, but if the economic data does not deliver what traders are expecting, the upside should be limited, and only if the E-mini SP manages to push above the 302.00 level, then a strong session will be seen. Be ready also for an opening gap that give as a strong session without trading yesterday’s settlements.



TODAY’S SESSION

There is initial resistance at 1295.75-1297.50 on the E-mini SP, 1948.00-1950.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 749.00-750.10 on the Russell. If yesterday’s pullback is only a one day move, then those levels should get exceeded easily, and the indexes should be able to reach their next resistance areas at 1301.75-1303.00 on the SP’s, 1960.00-1961.00 on the Nasdaq and 753.50-754.00 on the Russell. Those areas are CRITICAL, and if the indexes fail to break above them, then, probably a short-term top has been already posted. However, if the upside momentum continues and the Nasdaq breaks higher, the indexes could give a try at 1305.75-1306.50 on the SP’s, 1968.50-1969.50 on the Nasdaq and 758.10-758.50 on the Russell. If those can not hold, then the rally has another leg to the upside.

There is initial support just below yesterday’s settlement at 1289.50-1288.00 on the E-mini SP, 1938.50-1936.25 on the Nasdaq and 745.00-743.90 on the E-mini Russell. If the markets are strong, those won’t be visit, and if the indexes test those areas and hold, then the uptrend is intact. Nut if there are sellers out there, a test of yesterday’s lows at 1285.75-1284.50 on the SP’s, 1932.00-1930.75 on the Nasdaq and 741.20-740.50 on the Russell will be seen before the markets decide which way to go. Nothing bad happens if those levels can hold, but if buyers do not step in at those areas, then the indexes should be able to move lower testing the 1281.00-1279.50 on the Sp’s,1925.00-1923.75 on the Nasdaq and 736.30-734.90 on the Russell. If those do not hold, extremely weakness could be seen during the last hour of trading. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1312.00-1313.25 1975.75-1977.50 763.80-765.00
Resistance 3 1305.75-1306.50 1968.50-1969.50 758.10-758.50
Resistance 2 1301.75-1303.00 1960.00-1961.00 753.50-754.00
Resistance 1 1295.75-1297.50 1948.00-1950.00 749.00-750.10
PIVOT 1294.75 1945.50 747.40
Support 1 1289.50-1288.00 1938.50-1936.25 745.00-743.90
Support 2 1285.75-1284.50 1932.00-1930.75 741.20-740.50
Support 3 1281.00-1279.50 1925.00-1923.75 736.30-734.90
Support 4 1272.00-1270.50 1918.00-1916.75 728.30-727.00






S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1344.16 2042.45 771.06
1338.85 2031.30 768.44
1330.25 2013.25 764.20
1321.66 1995.20 759.96
1316.35 1984.05 757.34
1307.75 1966.00 753.10
1299.16 1947.95 748.86
1296.50 1942.38 747.55
1293.85 1936.80 746.24
1285.25 1918.75 742.00
1276.66 1900.70 737.76
1271.35 1889.55 735.14
1262.75 1871.50 730.90
1254.16 1853.45 726.66
1248.85 1842.30 724.04



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1299.75 1961.00 750.10
AS DAILY LOW 1277.00 1931.25 739.90​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com[/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE]

 

[arturo1]

Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 15-August-2008


Wal-Mart better than expected earnings, CPI at 17 year high, Existing Home Sales lower pushing home prices down and more banking problems gave way to an early sell off that turned to be a buying opportunity as markets ended higher.


ECONOMIC DATA

8:30 AM NY Empire State Index
9:00 AM Net Foreign Purchases
9:15 AM Capacity utilization
9:15 AM Industrial Production
10:00 AM Michigan Sentiment- Prel.


YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

A downward opening following disappointing economic data resulted in a positive session. After a strong Globex session, the E-mini SP sold off before the opening, the index started the session at 1276.00 just to get immediately bought and rallied all the way up to 1296.00 in less than two hours with all the indexes reversing the early losses. The relative weakness on the E-mini Russell kept the markets from pushing higher as they traded in a narrow range in the mid-morning. Unable to break lower, the indexes broke to new intraday highs with the SP reaching 1300.75 on the E-mini SP, 1973.00 on the Nasdaq and 757.90 on the Russell. The rally stalled at those levels giving way to some profit taking, the SP’s pulled back to 1293.00, rallied to 1297.75 and moved lower testing 1289.00 from where it bounced back into the end of the session. For the day, the E-mini SP added 9.25 points closing the session at 1293.75, the Nasdaq settled at 1965.75, up 24.25 points and the Russell closed the day at 755.00, up 7.80 points for the day. The Dow, gained 82 points finishing the session at 11615.
.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote: ”Yesterdays weak opening, early sell off and late recovery, has placed the indexes in a position where a short term high and low has been placed forming a trading range, that in the SP and Dow, if it gets broken to the downside could result in a very deep down move. However the bullish divergences that the Nasdaq and Russell maintain at this moment, makes difficult to predict markets direction, but once those indexes failed to hold the first hour lows during yesterday’s trading session, they moved down quick, so keep a close eye on both. Yesterday’s lows, held perfectly the lower trend line on all the indexes, and only if the lower boundary gets broken the markets will fall. Otherwise expect this “consolidation” to continue until a clear breakout is seen. With this scenario and option expiration during tomorrow’s session, yesterday’s late highs and early lows seem as good levels to monitor for a multi day move once they get broken.”

We came into the trading session expecting more sideways trading between the recent lows and highs as the indexes digest the last explosive rally, and despite that the economic news did not justify a positive session, the indexes reacted to the lower boundary trend line holding the selling pressure. The markets continue to consolidate and we should consider that they will continue to do so as the rallies continue to get sold and the sell offs keep showing buying interest. The SP and Dow continues to build an upward slopping channel that once it gets broken to the downside it could result in a huge sell off. The Nasdaq looks like toping, but we can not exclude the possibilities of another leg up that push that index to the 2050 level carrying the momentum to the SP and testing the 1320.00-1330.00 area. Of curse, I don’t expect this to happen during today’s session, but you never know, we have the august option expiration and a few economic reports that should add volatility to the trading session.

So for today, I personally don’t like to trade on option expiration days, but for those of you that don’t mind to do it, selling the rallies once they stall and buying the pullbacks should be the best scenario as option players should try to play both sides of the markets but I will follow closely the E-mini Nasdaq as a push higher on that index could result in another short covering rally for the other indexes.

TODAY’S SESSION


Initial resistance is at 1296.50-1297.50 on the E-mini SP, 1970.50-1972.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 756.60-757.90 on the Russell. These are the “highs” so trading higher could result in some short covering as stops are build above those levels, however beware of a false break. But if the indexes break higher the first move could reach yesterday’s high on the SP at 1299.00-1300.50 and new highs for the Nasdaq and Russell at 1977.00-1978.50 and 759.80-761.00 respectively. If the rally does not end there, then more short covering should push higher the markets reaching 1304.50-1307.75 on the SP, 1984.00-1985.75 on the Nasdaq and 763.70-764.40 on the Russell.
First support is at 1291.00-1289.50 on the E-mini SP, 1964.00-1961.50 on the Nasdaq and 752.10-750.60 on the E-mini Russell. Those held nicely during yesterday’s late pullback. But if the opening is lower or there is selling pressure, then the next support levels area t 1286.25-1284.75 on the SP, 1954.00-1952.75 on the Nasdaq and 746.30-745.40 on the Russell. If the markets fail to hold those areas, then the short term uptrend could be rolling and the indexes should move lower for a test of 1279.50-1278.00 on the SP, 1946.25-1`944.00 on the Nasdaq and 742.20-741.10 on the Russell. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1308.75-1310.00 1993.00-1995.00 768.00-769.10
Resistance 3 1304.50-1305.75 1984.00-1985.75 763.70-764.40
Resistance 2 1299.00-1300.50 1977.00-1978.50 759.80-761.00
Resistance 1 1296.50-1297.50 1970.50-1972.00 756.60-757.90
PIVOT 1290.00 1957.50 751.60
Support 1 1291.00-1289.50 1964.00-1961.50 752.10-750.60
Support 2 1286.25-1284.75 1954.00-1952.75 746.30-745.40
Support 3 1279.50-1278.00 1946.25-1944.00 742.20-741.10
Support 4 1274.00-1272.75 1937.50-1936.00 738.50-737.00






S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1340.70 2036.91 783.63
1334.80 2027.59 779.87
1325.25 2012.50 773.80
1315.70 1997.41 767.73
1309.80 1988.09 763.97
1300.25 1973.00 757.90
1290.70 1957.91 751.83
1287.75 1953.25 749.95
1284.80 1948.59 748.07
1275.25 1933.50 742.00
1265.70 1918.41 735.93
1259.80 1909.09 732.17
1250.25 1894.00 726.10
1240.70 1878.91 720.03
1234.80 1869.59 716.27



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1310.00 1989.00 764.40
AS DAILY LOW 1284.50 1949.50 748.50​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com[/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE]