DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 24-November-2008

arturo1

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DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 24-November-2008


Stocks fluctuate in volatile trading session but close with a huge relief rally after Elected President Obama chooses Timothy Geithner as his Treasury Secretary. Citigroup says bank won’t be broken as shares tumbled below $4; it gets a $306 billion loan guarantee and $20 billion of Government cash. GE will seek to negotiate a cut in debt and new union work rules in order to get support of winning federal loans.


WEEKLY PIVOTS FOR WEEK ENDING 28- November-2008

R3 870.00
R2 831.50
R1 818.00
PP 804.25
S1 778.00
S2 753.00
S3 713.50

ECONOMIC DATA

10:00 AM Existing Home Sales

WEEKLY RECAP

Markets continued to erode despite Friday’s late rally. Another rough week kept the markets under pressure during all the week. Monday’s release of the NY Empire state index and the Capacity utilization and Industrial Production data, gave investors more evidence that the Global economies have entered in a long and deep recession, that some of the economist predict it could last until the end of the next year, the trading session saw the indexes fluctuate as the markets ended mixed, the SP lost 10.50 points closing the session at 851.00, the Nasdaq ended higher by 3 points at 1158.50, and the Russell gained 1.80 points ending the day at 449.50. The Dow lost another 193.00 points and closed the session at 8323. Tuesday’s PPI early release surprised markets with its deep contraction, a non seen fall that signals deflation, however traders took it with optimism. Bernanke and Paulson testimony was another classical joke as they continued to defend why they have changed the initial objective of their inconsistent $700 billion bailout program. Yahoo announced the change of Yang as CEO, HP’s 4Q outlook was seen positive and Home Depot profits suffered a 31% contraction. Despite this, the markets recovered from early losses and managed to close on a solid tone. For the session, the SP ended higher by 15.50 points and settled at 866.50, the Nasdaq closed the session at 1174.00, up 15.50 points for the session and the Russell finished the day at 454.10, up 4.60 points. The Dow added 151 points closing the session at 8424. Wednesday’s session investors finally took conscience of the huge risk of deflation, CPI record fall, Housing Starts lowest rate, a new slide on Building Permits and automakers begging for help at the Congress were not enough, the release of the FOMC minutes talking about unemployment at 7.50% was far from a rose garden which resulted in huge losses for the U.S. markets. Also, the Banking index traded at its lowest value since 1995. For the day the SP lost 54.25 points closing the session at 812.25, the Nasdaq ended lower by 83.25 points and settled at 1090.75 and the Russell gave back another 40.70 points ending the day at 413.60. The Dow ended lower by 427 points closing at 7997. Thursday’s session the markets collapse continued, for first time since 1929, the Dow closed below a 50% retracement from its all time highs, sentiment was horrible as Initial Claims clearly indicate an increasing unemployment. A fake intraday rally that was caused by rumors that the 425 billion that automakers are begging for was approved got strongly reversed once the news that a decision will be taken only next month came out. Leading indicators and the Philadelphia Fed Index reported worst than expected and Prince Alwaleed bin Tal increased his stake in Citigroup which did not impressed investors, GMAC applied for status as bank to get some of the $700 billion package. Losses were huge after a rollercoaster session. The SP lost another 64.25 points ending the session at 748.25, the Nasdaq ended lower by 53.00 points and settled at 1039.50 and the Russell lost 30.80 points and finished the session at 382.30. The Dow lost another 445 points and closed the day at 7552. Friday’s trading session started with great optimism after a strong nightly session, however the November option expiration kept markets far away from quite as new intraday lows were posted during the day, finally as the news of Obama choose for Treasury Secretary was known, the indexes rallied strongly into the close, as an example, the Dow reversed from early lows and rallied 600 points during the last hour of the trading session. For the day all the indexes posted strong gains, the SP closed at 792.00 and the Dow gained 6.54% ending the week at 8046.


FRIDAY’S MARKETS

After trading sharply higher during the Globex, the E-mini SP reached 784.75, markets opened in positive territory. The SP started the day just at the previous important 770.00 support area. The index pulled back to 762.00 and bounced to 774.50. That was the intraday early high. As the initial rally ran out of gas sellers took control pushing the SP down to 755.00, the index then bounced back to 764.75 just to get sold off back down to 753.00. the SP traded in a narrow range for the next minutes but the selling pressure and the weakness on the Nasdaq and Russell finally gave the shorts the full control pushing all the markets to new lows for this down leg, the SP reached 739.00 where it found strong support. The index made all the way back up to 763.00, pulled back to 750.00 and rallied to 767.00 before losing its upside momentum. The SP pulled back to 755.00 bounced 5 points and tested the 750.00 level and bounced to 758.00 before pulling back holding the last trading range. Finally leaded by the weakness on the Nasdaq, the SP broke its consolidation trading lower reaching 845.00 before bouncing back quickly above the 850.00 area. Another rally attempt failed at the 758.00 area and the SP pushed once more lower testing levels near the intraday lows but bounced back quickly as in the previous attempts to hold below 750.00. Once more sellers tried hard to push lower and once more they failed. As the last hour of trading started, the SP traded back at 765.50 , moved backward to 759.50 and rallied to 775.50 from where a pullback to 764.50 where it get bought breaking up to new highs at 793.25. As the last twenty minutes of the session went on the E-mini SP pulled to 779.50 just to rally once more to the Globex 784.75 high before pulling back with huge volatility to 773.50 where it held, rallied back to 788.50 and finally pushed strong higher into the close reaching 802.25 before a pulling back into the end of the session closing below fair value. For the Day, the SP gained 43.75 point and settled at 792.00, the Nasdaq closed up by 51.50 points at 1091.00 and the Russell finally showed some signs of life after closing at 401.20, up 18.90 for the day. The Dow came back strongly gaining 494 points finishing the day at 8046.00



MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Despite the strong finish, stocks traded in mixed fashion throughout much of the session, and struggled to find direction. During that time the financial sector stood out as a notable laggard. At one point the financial sector was down 7.5%, which marked the sector's lowest level since 1995. However, it finished 3.4% higher.


Last Friday I wrote:” The continuing collapse on the U.S. markets continues to show no mercy, the early and promissory rally from levels just above the critical 770.00 level seemed to be the initial move of the rally that we have been expecting in order to call a short term low. Is this last two days huge sell off a consequence of today’s option expiration and all the put sellers are already out of their positions? We don’t know, but certainly the picture looks ugly. Is yesterday’s late sell off with the closing at the lows the final capitulation and exhausting this fast last leg down? Every time that the indexes close on the lows, there is a chance. For this scenario to be true, at least, the index will have to close above yesterday’s highs at 820.75. Until that happens chances that this fast downtrend has not reached a bottom still exist. We will have to look for early strength that can be sustained during all the session, which leave the late shorts trapped in order to force them to cover during this option expiration session. The other scenario is to look for support, first at 734.50 and then at 710.00 from where the SP gets strongly reversed triggering a 100 point rally. It may sound crazy, but an intraday 100 point rally is possible under this circumstances. Technically, yesterday’s sell off should result in a bounce during today’s trading session, but the fact that the markets are trading below their last importance highs, 915.00 on the SP and 9200 on the Dow opens the door for a continuation of this leg down that once it breaks the last important support at 710.00 on the SP and 7000 on the Dow will easily push lower to the 600.00 area on the SP and the 6000 level on the Dow. So every rally will continue to be a selling opportunity, I am starting to get convinced that finally, during the rest of the year, or next year, the indexes will test those levels. However, on our short term projection, a huge bear market rally of approximately 200 points on the SP that results in a “suckers rally” could not be ruled out. Yesterday’s break of the 50% retracement of the highs on the Dow is something that was only seen during 1929, so we could see today an attempt to get back above that level. A new marginal low that recovers will also give some life to these beaten markets.”


Friday’s new lows on the SP and the late rally will have to show some follow through for the markets to be temporary out of problem and return to the last trading range. This could be only seen if the financial sector starts to recover some of the lost ground. Despite the fact that volumes were high during the session it should be seen as a consequence of the November option expiration and a bit of short covering, but not as money coming back into the markets. The Dow found support at 7500, retracing to test the new resistance level at 8000 but only a move above the 8500 level will indicate a multi day rally that could reach the 10000 level as the SP gets back near the 1000.00 area. The key, and I repeat, I is not the Friday’s rally, is how the indexes will react to the last low during this week. Economic data will continue to show a shrinking economy, but a higher low, a retest of Friday’s lows or a rally that last more than just four days will be highly positive. I assume that some short may be trapped at the lows, but I also have to consider that some put writers may have been adjudicated with long positions once the expiration is already behind us, so any rally will be a vote of confidence in the upcoming new President and bottom fishing. It is very encourage that the Dow did not closed two consecutive sessions below the 50% retracement from its all time highs, but a retest of the 7500 level could be in the cards.
The early week action will tell us the story for the next few weeks, Friday’s rally touched the new 804.25 support area on the SP and the 8000 level on the Dow, If this is a “kiss of death” pattern, where the indexes came back just to test the previous support and fail to continue higher, another sharp drop could be in the cards, however, if the markets continue to move higher, a test of the next levels at 864.00 on the SP and 8500 on the Dow could be seen in the next two sessions, only if those two markets manage to break above those levels, then we could call short term low.
This Thanksgiving week volumes will start after a low was placed last Friday, this is a traditional bullish week, the problem, the volumes, but that does not mean that this markets that have knocked out all the longs won’t do the same if a low is in place, my 804.25 weekly pivot point will act as a line in the sand for a mid-term long or short position despite the fact that low volumes do not give credibility to a move, but they do have the capability to start a move. If we have a low or if we successfully test the low, and the market holds, the reversal will be as brutal as the last down move.
Conclusion, we have a one day rally from a new low, that low can be tested and then consolidate a few days before it starts a powerful rally, however, this is not a normal market and a new marginal low could be seen before the markets get some sign of life.

For today’s trading session, the SP will have to trade above our 804.25 weekly pivot point, try to maintain a long position above it but be careful to have a stop loss order in and to secure some profits if you are in the right side of the trade. Many subscribers asked me why I don’t get short at this point, my indicators are screaming for a relief rally, however we could see a sharp drop that gets immediately reversed trapping me with a huge loss, if I don’t want to take a chance to catch a rally that seems to be around trhe corner, I would prefer to stay neutral, at least this holiday week.


TODAY’S SESSION

There is resistance just below Friday’s late highs at 797.50-799.50 on the SP, 1099.00-1101.50 on the Nasdaq and 404.70-406.00 on the Russell. Those will have to get crushed and the SP will have to trade above the weekly 804.25 pivot point where its second resistance areas are to give some credibility to Friday’s late upside move, those levels on the SP coincide with 1111.00-1113.50 on the Nasdaq and 409.90-411.00 on the Russell. If the three indexes manage to break above them, expect the rally to continue reaching 810.75-812.00 on the SP, 1118.00-1119.25 on the Nasdaq and 417.20-418.20 on the Russell. Trading above those levels could push the SP back to 832.00 once the 818.00-820.00 level gets exceeded.


There is initial support at 786.00-784.50 on the SP, 1084.00-1082.00 on the Nasdaq and 396.00-394.60on the Russell, breaking below them will place the indexes under pressure giving the control to the sellers, so expect to see more downside action pushing the indexes to 779.00-777.00 on the SP, 1074.00-1072.50 on the Nasdaq and 389.90-388.10 on the Russell. If those can not hold, then a test of 773.00-771.50 on the SP, 1059.00-1058.00 on the Nasdaq and 380.50-379.90 on the Russell could be seen, those are pivotal, so if the markets hold there expected a good reversal to the upside, but if they fail, last Friday’s rally was only a one day event is a strong downtrend with an objective near the 700.00’s on the SP. GOOD LUCK.


TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 818.00-820.00 1129.50-1132.00 423.40-424.80
Resistance 3 810.75-812.00 1118.00-1119.25 417.20-418.20
Resistance 2 804.25-806.50 1111.00-1113.50 409.90-411.00
Resistance 1 797.50-799.50 1099.00-1101.50 404.70-406.00
PIVOT 777.75 1067.25 392.50
Support 1 786.00-784.50 1084.00-1082.00 396.00-394.60
Support 2 779.00-777.00 1074.00-1072.50 389.90-388.10
Support 3 773.00-771.50 1059.00-1058.00 380.50-379.90
Support 4 757.00-755.50 1047.00-1045.50 375.00-374.30


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
904.59 1214.75 468.16
889.66 1197.00 459.24
865.50 1168.25 444.80
841.34 1139.50 430.36
826.41 1121.75 421.44
802.25 1093.00 407.00
778.09 1064.25 392.56
770.63 1055.38 388.10
763.16 1046.50 383.64
739.00 1017.75 369.20
714.84 989.00 354.76
699.91 971.25 345.84
675.75 942.50 331.40
651.59 913.75 316.96
636.66 896.00 308.04



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 828.75 1129.00 423.00
AS DAILY LOW 765.00 1054.00 385.20




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