DAILY REPORT - JULY 15 , 2020

[CSFX.Support]

Brent Nears $110 and Global Yields Spike as Europe Braces for US CPI​

Brent crude touched an intraday high of $109.98 a barrel overnight, its highest since early May, after Yemen's Houthi group reportedly seized the port of Mocha and struck Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline, triggering six major fires. Prices have since eased to around $107.86 on reports that Iran, Oman and Gulf states will meet Monday to discuss reopening the Strait of Hormuz. An under-subscribed US Treasury buyback operation pushed the 10-year Treasury yield toward 4.96% overnight. Thursday's ECB hike to 2.50% and Euro zone inflation at 3.3% remain in the background. US August CPI is due today at 1:30pm London.

Market at a Glance​

Instrument	Price	Change	Note
EUR/USD	1.1615	−0.1%	Fading post-ECB gains — day range 1.1608–1.1654 — dollar drawing support into CPI
GBP/CHF	1.0938	−0.2%	Day range 1.0924–1.0972 — strong UK GDP vs. safe-haven franc bid
Silver	$64.04/oz	+0.72%	Rebounding after Thursday's pullback to $63.58 — gold/silver ratio near 67.85
WTI Crude	$102.95	+0.6%	Easing off Brent's overnight high near $110 — six-week high territory
CAC 40	8,118	−0.5%	Day range 8,114–8,190 — hawkish ECB meets rising oil
ETH/USD	$2,467.20	−0.18%	Day range $2,440.71–$2,473.13 — Bitcoin dominance climbing pressures altcoins
XRP/USD	$1.36	flat	Coiling above daily EMA20 ($1.36) and EMA200 ($1.34) — RSI near 53

What Is Driving the Session​

Brent's spike toward $110 is the session's dominant force — and the pullback is fragile​

Brent crude touched an intraday high of $109.98 a barrel overnight, its highest level since early May, after Yemen's Houthi group reportedly seized the port city of Mocha and struck Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline, triggering six major fires, while the US said it sank five more Iranian tankers this week. Prices have since eased to around $107.86 on reports that Iran, Oman and Gulf states will meet Monday to discuss reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but the war-risk premium remains firmly embedded seven months into the conflict. Every oil-correlated and inflation-linked instrument in this report is trading off that premium.
The pullback to $107.86 is a headline-driven relief move, not a resolved risk. Monday's Iran-Oman-Gulf talks are the next scheduled test of whether that premium can unwind, or whether it re-inflates on the next escalation.

The global rates shock is just as loud as the oil shock​

An under-subscribed US Treasury buyback operation pushed the 10-year Treasury yield toward 4.96% overnight, and the repricing rippled through Asia-Pacific sovereign debt, with Australia's 3-year yield surging 20 basis points to a 2011 high of 5.05% and New Zealand's 2-year jumping 25 basis points. That follows Thursday's hawkish ECB decision, where policymakers raised the deposit rate 25 basis points to 2.50% and President Christine Lagarde called the move a unanimous "no-brainer," with markets now pricing further hikes in October and December. Euro zone inflation ran at 3.3% in August, with energy costs up 14.3% on the year. European yields have risen across the curve in the aftermath.

European equities are lower into CPI, with UK GDP the one bright spot​

The pan-European STOXX 600 fell around 0.7% at Friday's open, with Germany's DAX down about 0.8%, France's CAC 40 off roughly 0.5% near 8,118 and the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.6%, as rising energy prices and Treasury yields weighed on sentiment heading into the US CPI release. The ONS reported UK GDP grew 0.4% month-on-month in July, well above the flat consensus, with Q3 growth now tracking near 0.6% against the Bank of England's own 0.1% projection — a genuine tailwind for sterling that is only partially offsetting the broader risk-off tone. Total crypto market capitalisation has slipped roughly 3.9% over 24 hours to about $2.65 trillion as Bitcoin dominance rose toward 58.5%, pressuring Ethereum and other altcoins into the CPI print.

Trade Setups​

All levels are reference points for educational discussion only and do not constitute personal investment advice. Today's 1:30pm London US CPI release can reverse any of these positions sharply.

EUR/USD — 1.1615 (−0.1%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — bearish into CPI
Levels

• Entry: Sell 1.1680
• Stop: 1.1750
• Target: 1.1480

Thesis
Thursday's ECB hike to 2.50% was a hawkish surprise that briefly lifted the euro to the 1.1640s, but the pair has since faded against a dollar drawing support ahead of today's CPI print and a live 15–16 September FOMC decision. Day range 1.1608–1.1654.
Exit if

• Soft US CPI print revives Fed-cut chatter
• Dovish CPI surprise weakens the Dollar broadly.
• Close above 1.1750.

GBP/CHF — 1.0938 (−0.2%)​

Stance: Buy dips — bullish
Levels

• Entry: Buy 1.0870
• Stop: 1.0790
• Target: 1.1050

Thesis
July UK GDP rose 0.4% month-on-month against a flat consensus, with Q3 growth now tracking near 0.6% versus the Bank of England's own 0.1% projection, a genuine tailwind for sterling. Day range 1.0924–1.0972. The Swiss franc's safe-haven bid amid the intensifying US-Iran war and Bab el-Mandeb escalation is the main offsetting force.
Exit if

• Franc safe-haven bid intensifies on fresh Middle East escalation.
• Broad risk-off tone into US CPI deepens.
• Close below 1.0790.

Silver — $64.04 (+0.72%)​

Stance: Buy dips — constructive
Levels

• Entry: Buy $62.50
• Stop: $60.50
• Target: $67.00

Thesis
Rebounding after Thursday's pullback to $63.58 on hot PPI data, with the gold/silver ratio near 67.85 and the metal still up sharply on the year. Energy-driven inflation and safe-haven demand from the deepening Middle East conflict remain a genuine tailwind.
Exit if

• Hot US CPI revives immediate Fed-hike bets and lifts real yields.
• Close below $60.50.

WTI Crude — $102.95 (+0.6%)​

Stance: Buy dips — constructive
Levels

• Entry: Buy $99.50
• Stop: $95.50
• Target: $110.00

Thesis
The Houthis' seizure of Mocha and strikes on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, layered on top of the US sinking five more Iranian tankers this week, keep the war-risk premium elevated even after Brent eased from its $109.98 overnight peak. Monday's scheduled Iran-Oman-Gulf states meeting on reopening the Strait of Hormuz is the key swing risk.
Exit if

• Iran-Oman-Gulf talks produce a credible Hormuz corridor deal.
• Close below $95.50.

CAC 40 — 8,118 (−0.5%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — cautious
Levels

• Entry: Sell 8,230
• Stop: 8,320
• Target: 7,900

Thesis
Thursday's hawkish ECB hike to 2.50%, combined with Brent trading near $108 and global bond yields spiking after a weak US Treasury buyback, is a genuine headwind for French equities, with luxury and industrial names most exposed to higher rates and energy costs. Day range 8,114–8,190.
Exit if

• A benign US CPI print cools the global rates repricing.
• Close above 8,320.

ETH/USD — $2,467.20 (−0.18%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — cautious
Levels

• Entry: Sell $2,560
• Stop: $2,650
• Target: $2,300

Thesis
Total crypto market capitalisation has slipped roughly 3.9% over 24 hours to about $2.65 trillion with Bitcoin dominance climbing toward 58.5%, and the same global bond-yield spike pressuring equities is a genuine headwind for a risk asset like Ether. Day range $2,440.71–$2,473.13.
Exit if

• Dovish CPI surprise eases the yield spike and revives risk appetite.
• Close above $2,650.

XRP/USD — $1.36 (flat)​

Stance: Buy dips — constructive
Levels

• Entry: Buy $1.3300
• Stop: $1.2900
• Target: $1.4600

Thesis
Holding above its daily EMA20 at $1.36 and EMA200 at $1.34 with RSI near 53. Tuesday's scheduled Senate procedural vote on the CLARITY Act is a genuine tailwind for the regulatory-clarity narrative that has underpinned the token.
Exit if

• Broader crypto risk-off move tied to rising Bitcoin dominance.
• Hot US CPI print triggers a wider sell-off.
• Close below $1.2900.

What to Watch — Rest of the Day and This Week​

Time	Event	Note
Thursday, 10 September (Recap)	US PPI (August)	Wholesale inflation +0.4% m/m, reinforcing energy-driven price pressure — set the stage for today's CPI print
Thursday, 10 September (Recap)	ECB Rate Decision	Hiked deposit rate 25bp to 2.50%; Lagarde calls it a "no-brainer" — euro gains have since faded against the dollar
8:30am ET / 1:30pm London Today	US CPI (August)	Consensus 3.4% y/y headline; core previously 2.5% y/y — the decisive input for the 15–16 September FOMC decision
Ongoing	US-Iran War, Strait of Hormuz & Bab el-Mandeb	Brent near $108; Houthis seize Mocha, strike Saudi pipeline — the dominant swing factor for oil, yields and risk sentiment
Monday, 14 September	Iran, Oman & Gulf States Meeting	First senior-level talks since the offensive began — a credible corridor deal is the key de-escalation risk for oil longs
Tuesday–Wednesday, 15–16 September	FOMC Meeting	Three officials voted for a hike in July; decision still live — today's CPI print is the last major data input
Tuesday, 15 September	US Senate CLARITY Act Vote	Digital asset market structure bill; procedural vote scheduled — a key regulatory catalyst XRP is trading in anticipation of

Analyst View — Rest of Session and Into the Weekend​

Friday's European session is defined by the collision of an energy shock and a global rates shock. Brent crude touched $109.98 a barrel overnight, its highest since early May, before easing to about $107.86 on reports of Monday's Iran-Oman-Gulf states meeting over reopening the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, an under-subscribed US Treasury buyback operation has pushed the 10-year Treasury yield toward 4.96%, a move that rippled through Asia-Pacific bonds overnight and followed Thursday's hawkish ECB hike to 2.50%.
Euro zone inflation ran at 3.3% in August with energy costs up 14.3% on the year, and Lagarde called Thursday's hike a unanimous "no-brainer," with markets now pricing further increases in October and December. European equities have opened lower into all of this — STOXX 600 down around 0.7%, DAX off 0.8%, CAC 40 down roughly 0.5% near 8,118 — while the UK's stronger-than-expected July GDP print is providing a partial offset for sterling. Silver is firmer near $64.04 and crude remains supported by the Middle East risk premium, while crypto markets are softer as Bitcoin dominance climbs.
CSFX's highest-conviction setup remains staying with the rates-and-energy trade: long crude oil and silver on dips, short the CAC 40 and Ether into rallies, while treating today's US CPI report at 1:30pm London as the binary event that either confirms or unwinds the current global rate-repricing structure. EUR/USD sell rallies toward 1.1680 as the dollar draws support into a live September Fed decision — though a soft CPI print reviving Fed-cut chatter is a real source of two-way risk. GBP/CHF buy dips toward 1.0870 on the UK GDP beat, with the franc's safe-haven bid the main offsetting risk. Silver and crude remain buy-dip trades into the Hormuz risk premium. Size every position to survive this afternoon's CPI print, and note that fast-moving Middle East headlines carry genuine event risk that could exaggerate moves in either direction.

Read the full report: capitalstreetfx.com/market-analysis/brent-nears-110-and-global-yields-11-09-2026