Daily Market Wrap – July 14, 2026: Oil Surges 8% on Hormuz Blockade, Gold Drops to $4,000, DXY Steady Ahead of CPI

[RichieVo]

1. Geopolitics – US Reimposes Hormuz Blockade​

President Trump announced the US will reimpose a blockade on Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz and impose a 20% fee on all cargo passing through the strategic waterway. In response, Iran declared the strait "closed indefinitely" and attacked a Kuwaiti offshore drilling platform. Brent crude surged over 8% to $78/bbl.
Key Developments:

• US to reimpose naval blockade on Hormuz
• 20% fee on cargo through the strait
• Iran closes Hormuz "indefinitely"
• Iran attacks Kuwaiti oil platform

Outlook: Oil remains volatile. Escalation targets $80-$82; de-escalation could bring oil back to $75-$70.

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2. Oil – Surges 8% on Supply Fears​

WTI crude is trading at $77.75/bbl, up 8% after Trump's announcement of a Hormuz blockade and Iran's retaliatory strike on Kuwaiti oil platforms. The market is pricing in a significant supply disruption.
Key Levels:

• Support: $75.73 (last week's high) – $70.00 (psychological)
• Resistance: $80.00 – $82.00

Outlook: Bullish above $75.73. Target $80-$82. A diplomatic breakthrough could trigger a sharp pullback.

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3. Gold – Drops Below $4,100 on Inflation Fears​

Gold is trading near $4,000/oz, down 2% on the day. The surge in oil prices has reignited inflation fears, pushing up bond yields and raising the opportunity cost of holding gold.
Key Levels:

• Support: $4,000 (psychological) – $3,942 (June low)
• Resistance: $4,133 (20-day MA) – $4,184 (30-day MA)

Outlook: Gold needs to hold $4,000 to avoid a deeper drop to $3,942. A break above $4,133 would signal a recovery.

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4. DXY – Steady Ahead of CPI Data​

The US Dollar Index is trading at 101.25, supported by safe-haven demand as geopolitical risks escalate. The market is pricing in a 71% probability of a September rate hike. All eyes are on today's US CPI data.
Key Levels:

• Support: 100.55 – 100.60
• Resistance: 101.50 – 101.80

Outlook: Hot CPI could push DXY to 101.50-101.80. Cool CPI could send it back to 100.50-100.60.

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5. Equities – ASX 200 Flat, JP225 Plunges​

ASX 200: Closed at 8,808 (+0.03%), near flat. Energy (+0.9%) and banks (+1.3%) supported the index, while technology (Xero -4.3%) and gold miners (-2.6%) weighed. Support at 8,760, resistance at 8,830.
JP225: Plunged 1.92% to 67,243, led by semiconductor and tech stocks. Yaskawa Electric collapsed 14.3% on weak earnings, and Kioxia fell 6-9%. The index broke below key support – if it falls below 66,366, further downside to 65,000 is likely.
Outlook: ASX 200 remains range-bound awaiting catalysts. JP225 is bearish – watch 66,366 support.

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Key Takeaways​

• **Oil ($77.75):** Bullish above $75.73. Target $80-$82. Stop below $75.73.
• **Gold ($4,000):** Bearish below $4,100. Support at $4,000-$3,942. Resistance at $4,133-$4,184.
• DXY (101.25): Neutral. CPI will determine direction. Range: 100.50-101.80.
• ASX 200 (8,808): Neutral. Range: 8,760-8,830.
• JP225 (67,243): Bearish. Support 66,366. Resistance 67,800-68,200.