Daily Forex Analysis - Majors 12/4 - Watch the Oz


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Thursday 12th April 2012


Choppy ranges on both the m15 and h4 today but overall the market is looking bearish. I’ll be waiting on this one. If the rate breaks yesterday’s low of 0.91286. Beware though; looking at the ranges that rate is likely to provide strong support initially. I’ll want it broken by at least 10 pips before selling.


On the h4 we can see the rate is bullish. It is just about confirmed on the m15 charts as we see the rate steadily rising. We can see that yesterday’s high of 1.59369 is providing strong support… if it clearly breaks this support I’ll be looking to ride the trade long.


On the H4 we see a bearish range of just under 100 pips… we go over to the m15 and see a very choppy range. It simply isn’t attractive for me today. If yesterday’s high (1.31558) or low (1.30655) are broken then I’ll get interested, but until now I’ll be avoiding the Euro.


Well on the h4 we see that obvious bearish trend that has recently been broken, yet the rate continues to follow the down trend again… could this be a retracement, or a failed breakout? Well over to the m15 we see the rate is choppy but just about bearish. We see the current range is forming lower lows and lower highs. However I would not look to sell until the rate drops below the key low of 0.99478. One to hold fire on.


Well we can see from the h4 that the long running downtrend has been broken looking like a turn to the bullish side. On the m15 we see the rate is as bullish as it gets. Yes finally after the pips we’ve made from the drop, we can take some more riding the thing back up. I expect a short retracement. Following this I’ll look to buy once 1.03938 is re-broken. Another good move to look for is if it breaks 1.04559 which has given good support already. I expect a nice rally if this is broken.


An easy one today. There is opportunity in the works for CHF, GBP and CAD, but for me the AUD is the clear winner with such a nice turn in the trend. Levels id look to buy off if broken are 1.03938 and 1.04559.

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